今年以来，科技主题基金表现不俗，即便是在11月科技板块或受美股AI龙头调整传导、年底资金调仓等因素影响出现短期震荡时，科技基金仍展现出较 强弹性，有望在后续的反弹中收复失地。 以工银瑞信基金旗下的工银新兴制造混合A为例，该基金凭借对科技成长赛道的精准布局，交出了一份亮眼的业绩答卷。Morningstar晨星中国数据显示， 截至今年11月末，该基金近五年收益排名同类前五（同类是指：中国开放式基金-积极配置-大盘成长，具体排名为5/1113）。而这背后，离不开基金经理 马丽娜及工银瑞信TMT投研团队的专业研判与深耕细作。 领跑科技赛道 作为工银瑞信在科技投资领域的新锐产品，工银新兴制造混合自2020年8月成立以来，始终聚焦制造业转型升级中的投资机会，精准捕捉科技创新驱动下 的产业红利。基金经理通过优化持仓结构、聚焦核心赛道，产品业绩迎来突破，成为科技成长赛道的标杆性产品之一。 从核心业绩数据来看，该基金展现出一定的长期控回撤能力较强、短期爆发力较强的特质。基金托管行复核数据显示，截至今年11月末，工银新兴制造混 合A近一年的业绩回报为61.91%，远超同期业绩比较基准收益率的25.58%；自2020年8月20日成 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of rationality, professionalism, and courage in economic discussions, particularly in the context of the "Yi Cai Hao" platform and its annual recognition of outstanding thinkers in finance [1][2]. Group 1: Achievements and Impact - Over the past year, the "Qian V Plan" has produced over 700 in-depth articles and more than 1,500 videos, achieving over 60 million views [2]. - The "Da V Liu Shui Xi" live broadcast attracted 4.64 million viewers, while the previous year's "Annual Financial Thinker Ceremony" engaged 7.41 million participants, generating a total communication flow of 40 million [2]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - A survey of 180 economists and researchers indicates that over 60% expect China's GDP growth target for 2026 to be between 4.5% and 5.0%, reflecting a pragmatic balance between stability and progress [3]. - 88.2% of experts believe that significant advancements in 2026 will occur in "technological innovation and industrial upgrading," with a focus on artificial intelligence, robotics, and semiconductor localization as key strategic areas [3]. Group 3: Consumer Trends and Market Dynamics - Health and elderly care, along with cultural and experiential consumption, are viewed as the most promising new consumer engines, with approximately 70% agreement among experts [4]. - In the real estate sector, the focus has shifted from simple stimulus to urban renewal and improvement, indicating a transition from "housing for all" to "livable housing" [4]. Group 4: Global Economic Context - Experts anticipate that the Federal Reserve will gradually enter a rate-cutting phase in 2026, maintaining a neutral global liquidity environment, with the US dollar index expected to remain stable within a certain range [4]. - The article highlights the importance of understanding global variables to navigate domestic policy space and market fluctuations [4].

Core Insights - Huawei is increasing the proportion of domestic components in its high-end smartphones, with the 2024 model "Mate70Pro" featuring approximately 57% Chinese-made parts, and the 2025 model "Pura80Pro" maintaining the same percentage [1][3][4] - The estimated cost of components for the "Pura80Pro" is $380, which remains unchanged from the previous year [3] - The shift towards domestic sourcing is largely driven by U.S. export controls that began in 2019, which have restricted American companies from trading with Huawei [6] Component Cost Analysis - The analysis conducted with Fomalhaut Technology Solutions reveals the procurement ratios of components from various countries, showing a significant decrease in the share of parts sourced from Japan, the U.S., and South Korea, which collectively dropped by over 20 percentage points since 2023 [4] - The trend indicates a strengthening of China's semiconductor supply chain, particularly in CPU and memory chip production, as Huawei capitalizes on the opportunity to enhance domestic manufacturing capabilities [1][6] Market Context - The increase in domestic component usage reflects a broader industry shift towards self-sufficiency in semiconductor technology, particularly in the context of advanced applications like artificial intelligence [1]

能型机器人扩展。以此带来的传感器、控制器、灵巧手等板块的阶段性机会将会反复出现。市场预期特斯拉人形机器人版本有可能更新，或将成为机器人 板块新催化剂。3）半导体国产化仍是大势所趋，关注其中的半导体设备、晶圆制造、半导体材料、IC设计等。4）军工板块2026年存在订单继续回升的预 期，大部分军工子板块如地面装备、航空装备、军工电子等三季报业绩降幅继续收窄，基本面已经出现触底迹象。5）创新药经历了近4年的调整后逐步迎 来收获期，自2024年三季度以来已经连续4个季度净利润增速为正，预计2025年创新药将迎来基本面拐点，2026年将延续上行趋势。 风险提示： 全球地缘格局出现超预期局面，关税预期的反复摇摆，关税冲击的后续影响，美联储降息延后，海外经济衰退超预期，国 内经济复苏不及预期，政策执行不及预期等。 指数四连阳后小幅震荡，以十字星收盘。 在上周三市场企稳后，至本周一指数已经经历了四连阳，本周二市场上行遇阻，盘中冲高回落后以十字星 收盘。主要分类指数表现分化，上证指数、深成指、科创综指、创业板指等小幅收涨，但北证50、中证1000、中证2000 等小幅调整，总体市场风格偏向 大盘股。临近年底，投资者参与交易的热 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hubei Xingfu Electronic Materials Co., Ltd. announced the acquisition of proprietary technology and experimental equipment for the preparation of photoinitiators used in photoresists for 46.27 million yuan, which is expected to break the long-standing foreign monopoly in the semiconductor field [1][2]. Group 1: Technology and Market Impact - The acquired technology is crucial for chip and display fields, specifically for photoinitiators that determine the sensitivity and resolution of photoresists [1]. - Currently, the domestic semiconductor industry relies almost entirely on imports from the US, Japan, and South Korea for photoinitiators used in photoresists, which has created significant pressure on production due to supply limitations [1]. - The project represents a response to market demand, with the laboratory addressing challenges posed by semiconductor clients facing supply issues [1]. Group 2: Development and Industrialization - After three years of R&D, a leading photoresist company in Shanghai confirmed that their samples matched the performance of foreign imports [2]. - The technology has reached a stage suitable for industrialization, with plans for the first production line of photoinitiators in Hubei, which will positively impact the development of China's photoresist industry [2].

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a mixed performance after stabilizing, with a focus on dividend stocks showing significant gains while technology indices are retreating, indicating a return to defensive strategies as year-end approaches [1] Market Outlook - Concerns over a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan are leading to cautious market sentiment, with expectations of reduced trading activity as year-end approaches. However, the market has the potential for upward movement due to improved supply-demand conditions in the manufacturing sector by mid-2026, which could boost the earnings growth of A-share companies [2] - Key focus areas for December include the impact of the 14th Five-Year Plan on industries, event-driven dynamics in the technology sector, and price recovery driven by anti-involution trends, suggesting multiple sectors may act as catalysts for a sustained upward trend in the market [2] Hot Sectors - In December, sectors benefiting from dividends and price increases are expected to outperform, with short-term attention on banking, public utilities, coal, and non-ferrous metals. Consumer sectors may also gain traction due to event-driven factors [3] - Technology remains a primary focus for 2026, with particular attention on AI, lithium batteries, military industry, and robotics. The trend of AI hardware is solidifying, with increasing token usage indicating a peak in AI applications by 2026 [3] - The domestic production of robots is anticipated to grow, expanding from humanoid robots to quadrupedal and functional robots, creating opportunities in related sectors such as sensors and controllers [3] - The trend towards semiconductor localization continues, with a focus on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [3] - The military sector is expected to see a recovery in orders by 2026, with signs of bottoming out in the performance of various military sub-sectors [3] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is entering a recovery phase after nearly four years of adjustment, with positive net profit growth expected to continue into 2026 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Qiangyi Semiconductor (Suzhou) Co., Ltd., focuses on the research, design, production, and sales of probe cards, a critical component in semiconductor testing, and aims to break the monopoly of foreign manufacturers in this field [7][12]. Company Overview - Qiangyi Semiconductor is a high-tech enterprise specializing in semiconductor design and manufacturing, particularly in the development of probe cards [7]. - The company has achieved a leading market position in the MEMS probe card sector, being the only domestic company to enter the top ten global semiconductor probe card manufacturers in recent years, ranking ninth in 2023 and sixth in 2024 [7][12]. Technology and Innovation - The company possesses 24 core technologies and has been granted 182 patents, including 72 domestic invention patents and 6 foreign invention patents [13][15]. - Key technologies include high-precision laser etching, palladium alloy electrochemical deposition, and surface flattening technology, which contribute to the company's product offerings [13]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 is projected to grow from 254.16 million yuan to 641.36 million yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 58.85% [20]. - Gross profit is expected to increase from 103.65 million yuan in 2022 to 39.55 million yuan in 2024, with gross profit margins rising from 40.78% to 61.66% during the same period [21]. Market Position and Customer Base - The company has over 400 clients, covering major players in the domestic semiconductor industry, including chip design firms and wafer foundries [18]. - It aims to expand its customer base both domestically and internationally while enhancing service capabilities for existing clients [8][23]. Industry Potential - The global semiconductor probe card market is projected to grow from $1.65 billion in 2018 to $2.65 billion in 2024, with a forecasted increase to $3.97 billion by 2029 [28]. - The Chinese probe card market is expected to grow from $13.5 million in 2018 to $35.7 million in 2024, with a CAGR of 21.83% [29]. Strategic Planning - The company plans to enhance R&D efforts to meet diverse customer needs and expand product offerings, aiming to become a globally competitive domestic probe card manufacturer [23]. - Short-term strategies include focusing on high-end products for non-storage applications, while long-term goals involve advancing technology and increasing production capabilities [24][25]. Investment and Development Projects - The funds raised from the IPO will be allocated to projects such as the Nantong probe card R&D and production project, which aims to enhance production capacity and market share [35][36]. - The Suzhou headquarters and R&D center project will focus on building advanced laboratories and attracting high-end technical talent to improve R&D capabilities [37].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced significant adjustments with widespread declines in individual stocks, reflecting a decrease in trading enthusiasm as year-end approaches, leading to a shrinking trading volume and a cautious market sentiment [1] - Concerns over potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan are contributing to short-term market caution, with expectations that this could lead to capital inflows back to Japan, indirectly affecting A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1] - Despite the current market fluctuations around the 4000-point level, conditions are in place for potential upward movement, supported by anticipated improvements in supply and demand in the manufacturing sector by mid-2026 [1] Sector Focus - In December, sectors benefiting from dividends and price increases are expected to outperform, with short-term attention on banking, public utilities, coal, and non-ferrous metals [2] - Consumer sectors may also gain attention due to event-driven factors [2] - Technology remains a key focus for 2026, with particular interest in AI, lithium batteries, military industry, and robotics, as these sectors are poised for growth following a period of adjustment [2] Technology Trends - The trend for AI hardware continues to solidify, with increasing token usage for major AI models indicating a peak in AI applications by 2026, presenting opportunities for high growth in AI hardware [2] - The domestic production and integration of robots into everyday life is expected to be a significant trend in 2026, with advancements in various types of robots creating opportunities in related sectors [2] - The semiconductor industry is also expected to see continued domestic growth, with a focus on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [2] Military and Pharmaceutical Outlook - The military sector is anticipated to see a rebound in orders by 2026, with many sub-sectors showing signs of recovery in performance metrics [2] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is entering a recovery phase after nearly four years of adjustments, with positive net profit growth expected to continue into 2026 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company aims to capitalize on the domestic semiconductor and new energy vehicle industries by raising 300 million yuan through an IPO on the Beijing Stock Exchange to enhance its semiconductor packaging materials production capacity and R&D capabilities [1] Group 1: Investment Projects and Capacity Expansion - The core project of the fundraising is the construction of a production line for 12,000 tons of key supporting materials for semiconductor packaging, with an investment of 200 million yuan in Mianyang, Sichuan [3] - Upon reaching full production, the new line will add 6,000 tons of epoxy molding compounds, 4,000 tons of liquid epoxy and epoxy film packaging materials, and 2,000 tons of silicone packaging materials, with increases of 54% and 35% in epoxy molding and liquid epoxy packaging materials capacity respectively compared to 2024 [3] - The project is strategically positioned to meet the growing demand in the semiconductor and new energy vehicle markets, allowing the company to seize market opportunities ahead of competitors [3] Group 2: Market Demand and Growth Potential - The global semiconductor packaging materials market is projected to reach 24.6 billion USD in 2024 and exceed 26 billion USD in 2025, with domestic market growth outpacing the global average [4] - The domestic new energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 12.866 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 35.5%, driving significant demand for electronic packaging materials [4] - The company’s products have entered the supply chains of leading automotive companies such as BYD, with the automotive electronics sector projected to account for 24.80% of revenue in 2024, becoming a key growth driver [4] Group 3: Strategic Location and Synergy - The company has established a collaborative development framework with production bases in Wuxi, Jiangsu, and Mianyang, Sichuan, covering the entire supply chain from R&D to production and sales [5] - The Sichuan-Chongqing region has developed a complete industrial chain for integrated circuits, attracting major industry players, which enhances the company’s strategic positioning [5] - The establishment of subsidiaries in Shenzhen for sales and in Chengdu for new product R&D supports a nationwide layout, optimizing production capacity and reducing logistics costs [5]

2026 全球半导体设备：关注存储超级周期、先进逻辑和 国产化机会 20251214 Q&A 2025 年全球半导体行业表现如何？有哪些显著的趋势和数据？ 2025 年，全球科技板块整体表现优于大盘，中国市场表现优于美国市场。具 体到半导体行业，半导体板块跑赢了科技板块，而半导体设备则以超过 70%的 涨幅成为表现最好的子板块。从中美比较来看，这是近年来中国市场首次跑赢 美国市场。 对于 2026 年全球半导体市场的展望如何？ 根据 WSTS 的最新预测，2026 年全球半导体市场将继续加速增长，这在周期 性强的半导体行业中较为罕见。预计存储器领域将增长接近 40%，其中包括 20%的量增和 20%的价格增幅。此外，逻辑芯片也将保持强劲增长。整体来 看，2026 年全球半导体市场有可能接近 1 万亿美元。 2025 年存储板块平均上涨 166%，估值相对合理，2026 年市盈率为 12 倍，市净率为 2.8 倍。三星若能进入英伟达 HBM4 供应链，其估值 将有显著提升。 2025 年中芯国际和华虹股价大幅上涨。目前中芯国际和华虹的市净率 均处于历史较高水平，大约是 3 倍左右。未来，它们能否继续上涨取决 于 ...