Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Commodity Research Institute Agricultural Product Research Report - Meal Daily Report" [1][2] - Report Date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The US soybean new - crop balance sheet adjustment is overall bearish, with a slight increase in ending stocks. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets lack clear drivers, and the markets are mainly in a narrow - range oscillation. The rapeseed meal market has concerns about future supply, but there are also uncertainties [4][5][7] - The international soybean market has supply pressure, mainly from South America. The domestic soybean meal spot is relatively loose, and the rapeseed meal demand is gradually weakening [5][6] - Macro - level information is unclear, and the short - term decline of the soybean market is limited. The soybean meal and rapeseed meal spreads are expected to widen, and the spreads between different contract months may face pressure [7] Group 4: Market Review - The US soybean futures showed a slight upward trend. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures generally declined slightly. The soybean meal inter - month spreads continued to decline, while the rapeseed meal spreads were relatively stable [4] Group 5: Fundamental Analysis International Market - The US soybean new - crop balance sheet adjustment is bearish. As of July 13, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans reached 70%. The US soybean exports were lowered, but the crushing was raised, and the ending stocks slightly increased. The Brazilian farmers' selling progress is slow, and the recent selling has further slowed down. The Brazilian soybean crushing has decreased, and the Argentine domestic crushing may improve, but soybean exports may increase [5] Domestic Market - The domestic soybean meal spot market is relatively loose, with increasing oil - mill operating rates, sufficient supply, and increasing inventory. The rapeseed meal demand is gradually weakening, and although the supply is also uncertain, it is expected to be in a range - bound operation [6] Group 6: Macro - level Analysis - The Sino - US negotiation in London has ended without clear information. The market has concerns about future supply uncertainty. The international trade has many uncertainties, and the soybean market is not likely to decline significantly in the short term [7] Group 7: Logic Analysis - The domestic soybean meal futures oscillate in a narrow range, supported by future supply uncertainty. The US soybean futures have limited decline and rebound space. The inter - month spreads may face pressure but have limited decline space. The rapeseed meal is affected by supply uncertainty, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen [7] Group 8: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see [8] - Arbitrage: RM91 reverse arbitrage [8] - Options: Wait and see [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The impact of the latest USDA report on the soybean market is neutral, with short - term CBOT soybean futures expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend. Domestic soybean meal futures show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, and the spot price of soybean meal will remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern in the short term. [18][19] - For the pig market, short - term supply decreases, supporting a short - term rebound in pig futures prices. However, due to increased medium - term supply expectations and weak demand, the increase in spot prices is limited, and the overall trend is expected to be oscillating. [20] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 closed flat, with coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes up 10 - 30 yuan/ton in some areas. DCE live pig main contract 2509 decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of outer three - yuan live pigs rose by 0.19 yuan/kg. Overnight CBOT US soybean main contract rose 0.22%. [2] 3.2 Weather in Main Producing Areas - There will be rainfall in some parts of the US Midwest in the next few days, which may help improve crop growth. Warm and humid weather can benefit crop growth in many areas, but some regions may not want more rain, while drier areas may welcome precipitation. [3][4] 3.3 Macroeconomic and Industry News - The USDA adjusted the 2025 US soybean planting area to 83.38 million acres, lower than previous estimates, and the soybean inventory on June 1 was 1.008 billion bushels, higher than expected. [5] - On July 1, the import cost of US, Brazilian, and Argentine soybeans decreased by 14 yuan. [5] - On June 30, the national main oil mills' soybean meal transactions decreased, and the overall oil mill startup rate decreased by 1.28%. [5] - As of the week ending June 27, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit decreased by 8% week - on - week. [6] - The US soybean's excellent - good rate is 66%, lower than expected; the emergence rate is 94%; the flowering rate is 17%; and the pod - setting rate is 3%. [6] - As of June 27, 2025, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory increased, rapeseed oil inventory decreased, and unexecuted contracts decreased. [6] - It is estimated that the national main oil mills' soybean crushing volume in June and July will reach about 10 million tons. [7] - In the 26th week of 2025, the national main oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories increased, unexecuted contracts decreased, and the apparent consumption of soybean meal decreased slightly. [7] - Since the beginning of this year, pig prices have been stable with a downward trend. It is expected that pig prices will remain stable and fluctuate within a narrow range in the second half of the year. [8] - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May. [8] 3.4 Data Charts - The report provides charts on the prices of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang and DCE soybean meal futures, soybean meal basis, rapeseed meal prices in Nantong and CZCE rapeseed meal futures, rapeseed meal basis, live pig prices in Henan and DCE live pig futures, live pig basis, Chinese soybean inventory, and Chinese soybean meal inventory. [11][12][14][17] 3.5 Analysis and Strategies - For soybean meal, the USDA report has a neutral impact. CBOT soybean futures will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term. Domestic soybean meal futures are in a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, and the spot price will remain at the bottom in the short term. [18][19] - For live pigs, short - term supply decreases, supporting a short - term rebound in futures prices. However, due to increased medium - term supply expectations and weak demand, the increase in spot prices is limited, and the overall trend is oscillating. [20]

Report Date - The report is dated May 7, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided Core Views - The report provides an analysis of the soybean oil and palm oil markets, stating that soybean oil is in a process of bottom - seeking with oscillations and is relatively strong among varieties, while palm oil is short - term weak with support below [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures Data - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 7,974 yuan/ton with a decline of 2.14%, closing price (night session) is 7,912 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.78%. Trading volume is 549,475 lots, an increase of 45,312 lots, and open interest is 367,565 lots, an increase of 20,597 lots [2] - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 7,760 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.92%, closing price (night session) is 7,746 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.18%. Trading volume is 299,059 lots, an increase of 12,309 lots, and open interest is 583,917 lots, an increase of 1,935 lots [2] - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 9,216 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.87%, closing price (night session) is 9,236 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.22%. Trading volume is 299,742 lots, an increase of 9,457 lots, and open interest is 280,976 lots, an increase of 4,397 lots [2] Spot Data - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): Spot price is 8,620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton [2] - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): Spot price is 8,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton [2] - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Spot price is 9,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2] Basis Data - Palm oil (Guangdong): Spot basis is 646 yuan/ton [2] - Soybean oil (Guangdong): Spot basis is 380 yuan/ton [2] - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Spot basis is 54 yuan/ton [2] Spread Data - Rapeseed - palm oil futures main contract spread: 1,242 yuan/ton, compared to 1,149 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2] - Soybean - palm oil futures main contract spread: - 214 yuan/ton, compared to - 316 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2] - Palm oil 5 - 9 spread: 456 yuan/ton, compared to 468 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2] - Soybean oil 5 - 9 spread: 140 yuan/ton, compared to 150 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2] - Rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread: 24 yuan/ton, compared to 9 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - In Myanmar, the wholesale reference price of palm oil in the Yangon market dropped from 6,735 kyats per viss (about 1.5 kg) last week (April 28 - May 4) to 6,700 kyats per viss as of the week ending May 11. The Ministry of Commerce is taking measures to control prices. Myanmar's annual palm oil consumption is about 1 million tons, local production is about 400,000 tons, and it imports about 700,000 tons from Malaysia and Indonesia [3][4] - As of the week ending May 2, 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing profit was $2.16 per bushel, a 5.3% decline from the previous week. The average crushing profit in 2024 was $2.44 per bushel, lower than $3.29 per bushel in 2023 [4] - Brazilian farmers plan to expand the soybean planting area in the main planting areas by about 500,000 hectares in the 2025/26 season starting in September. The current - season soybean planting area reached a record 47.8 million hectares, and the harvest was 172.1 million tons [4] - From April 28 to May 2, the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state, Brazil, was 623.09 reais/ton, down from 643.31 reais/ton the previous week [5] - As of May 4, the EU's 2024/25 palm oil imports were 2.43 million tons (compared to 2.96 million tons in the same period last year), soybean imports were 11.73 million tons (compared to 10.92 million tons last year), and rapeseed imports were 5.68 million tons (higher than 5 million tons last year) [5] - In 2024, Germany produced about 3.6 million tons of biodiesel, an increase of 100,000 tons year - on - year. Over half of the raw materials came from rapeseed, and about 1.45 million tons of rapeseed oil was processed into biodiesel, approximately equivalent to the 2024 rapeseed harvest [6] 3. Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0; Soybean oil trend intensity: 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean (Bean 1): Neutral (indicated by 'ななな') [1] - Soybean Meal: Bullish (indicated by '☆☆☆') [1] - Soybean Oil: Bullish (indicated by '☆☆☆') [1] - Palm Oil: Neutral (indicated by 'ななな') [1] - Rapeseed Meal: Neutral (indicated by 'ななな') [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Bullish (indicated by '☆☆☆') [1] - Corn: Bullish (indicated by '☆☆☆') [1] - Live Pigs: Bearish (indicated by '★☆☆') [1] - Eggs: Bearish (indicated by '★☆★') [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply pattern of imported soybeans will shift from tight to loose in the short term, and attention should be paid to policy and supply - demand changes [2][3][4] - The price of soybean meal futures will be relatively strong in the short - term, but its upward momentum will weaken when the procurement of Brazilian soybeans accelerates and North American weather risks decrease [3] - The price of edible oils will fluctuate repeatedly due to factors such as low procurement progress of third - quarter soybean shipments in China and the palm oil production cycle [4] - The downward space of rapeseed meal is limited, and it will mainly fluctuate, and attention should be paid to Sino - US - Canada trade policies [6] - Corn futures may oscillate downward after the release of grain sources, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [7] - The supply of live pigs will increase in the future, and attention should be paid to the decline space of spot prices [8] - Egg prices are expected to be bearish in the long - term due to factors such as seasonal weakness and increasing production capacity [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The price of domestic soybean futures main contract is falling, and there is a short - term supply pattern shift of imported soybeans from tight to loose. Pay attention to policy and supply - demand changes [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Soybean meal is reducing positions and prices are falling. The supply pattern will shift from tight to loose after May Day. The futures price of soybean meal will be relatively strong in the short - term [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Before the May Day holiday, domestic soybean and cotton oil are reducing positions and prices are falling. The supply pattern of imported soybeans will change, and the price of edible oils will fluctuate repeatedly [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - After the May Day holiday, the soybean shortage situation will ease. The downward space of rapeseed meal is limited, and it will mainly fluctuate. Pay attention to Sino - US - Canada trade policies [6] Corn - The supply of corn at Shandong deep - processing enterprises is low, and the port inventory pressure has decreased. Corn futures may oscillate downward after the release of grain sources, and it is advisable to wait and see [7] Live Pigs - The price of live pig futures has fallen significantly. The supply of live pigs will increase in the future, and attention should be paid to the decline space of spot prices [8] Eggs - The spot price of eggs is falling steadily, and the futures price is adjusting. Egg prices are expected to be bearish in the long - term due to seasonal and production - capacity factors [9]