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住建部定调2026楼市调控:因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-12-23 04:24
北京商报讯(记者 王寅浩 李晗)12月22日至23日,全国住房城乡建设工作会议在北京召开。 会议明确,因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给,结合城市更新、城中村改造盘活利用存量用地,推动收 购存量商品房用作保障性住房、安置房、宿舍、人才房等。优化和精准实施保障性住房供应,实施房屋 品质提升工程,有序推进"好房子"建设。 ...
楼市即将全面放开限制?房价要开始上涨了?发改委明确表示
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-22 19:00
近日,一则来自高层的政策信号,让沉闷许久的房地产市场再起波澜。先是广东在"十五五"规划中提 出"清理住房消费不合理限制性措施",接着国家发改委也明确发文,要"推动清理汽车、住房等消费不 合理限制性措施"。这被普遍解读为,针对北上深等城市楼市限购政策的"松绑"信号。 消息一出,最受触动的是无数普通家庭。一部分人心中燃起一丝希望,盼着市场回暖;但更多的人,心 中却是一沉,泛起深深的忧虑,一旦全面放开,压抑已久的房价会不会像脱缰野马,迎来一波报复性上 涨? 这种担忧,源于对过去房价飞涨的记忆,也源于对自身财富在不确定性中可能再次被"洗牌"的深 深不安。 信心和购买力的背后,是冰冷的市场数据。当前楼市正面临着巨大的库存压力。数据显示,2025年11 月,35个重点城市的库存出清周期已长达24.54个月,这意味着按目前的销售速度,卖完现有库存需要 超过两年时间,而且这个周期还在环比上升。 广东的市场数据更具代表性。作为经济大省,其楼市现状堪称缩影:2025年前十个月,广东全省新建商 品房销售额同比大幅下降16.7%,房地产开发投资也缩减了20.7%。在这样的市场基础上,政策的首要 目标是"去库存"、"稳市场",而非刺激 ...
大宗商品年末大戏:铂钯银盛宴,碳酸锂疯狂、多晶硅逼空、焦煤纠结、黄金怪象...
对冲研投· 2025-12-20 04:05
Group 1: Double Coke Market Analysis - The current supply side is relatively loose, with high import volumes from Mongolia and increased production rates from domestic coking plants due to improved profit margins from lower raw material prices [2][3] - Demand is weakening as winter sets in, leading to reduced steel production and lower consumption of coking coal, resulting in increased inventory levels for both coking plants and steel mills [2][3] - The market is experiencing a tug-of-war between optimistic policy news and the harsh reality of increased supply, decreased demand, and rising inventories [3] Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Market Dynamics - The recent price surge in lithium carbonate is supported by a solid fundamental basis, with ongoing inventory reduction and stable demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [6][7] - A significant announcement regarding the cancellation of mining rights in Yichun triggered a strong emotional response in the market, despite its minimal actual impact on lithium supply [9][10] - The price increase was further fueled by short sellers being forced to cover their positions as prices rose, creating a feedback loop that pushed prices higher [11] Group 3: Polysilicon Market Overview - The recent price increase in polysilicon is characterized as a "short squeeze," driven by a combination of regulatory factors, supply scarcity, and market expectations of coordinated price stabilization efforts among major producers [12][13] - Despite the bullish sentiment in the futures market, the actual polysilicon industry faces significant overcapacity, with production utilization rates as low as 35%-40% and high inventory levels [14][15] - The divergence between the thriving futures market and the struggling physical market raises questions about the sustainability of current price levels [15] Group 4: Precious Metals Market Insights - Platinum is experiencing a supply shortage, with projections indicating a continuous deficit until 2029, driven by production challenges in South Africa and its emerging role in hydrogen fuel cells [17] - Silver's price surge is supported by strong industrial demand, particularly from the solar industry, coupled with low inventory levels, while financial market expectations of interest rate cuts further bolster its appeal [18] - Palladium's recent price increase is attributed to its relative underperformance compared to other precious metals, combined with geopolitical factors affecting supply [19] Group 5: Nickel Market Developments - Indonesia's proposed significant reduction in nickel production targets for 2026 has sparked market speculation about future supply tightness, although this remains a draft plan and not yet finalized [29][30] - The global nickel market is expected to face a supply surplus in 2026, with projected production of 4.02 million tons against a demand of 3.77 million tons, indicating ongoing overcapacity [30][31] Group 6: Global Macro Asset Market Trends - The U.S. stock market and the dollar are strengthening due to robust economic data and persistent inflation, which enhances the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [32] - Asian markets, particularly Chinese A-shares, are showing signs of undervaluation, suggesting potential long-term investment opportunities as they await catalysts for upward movement [33][34] - Commodity markets are experiencing differentiation, with energy and metals leading the gains, while gold remains in a high volatility phase, awaiting new directional cues [36]
保利发展:积极应对行业变化 落实去库存、调结构的经营策略
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-12-17 11:12
证券日报网讯12月17日,保利发展(600048)在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示,股价表现受到多重因 素共同影响,公司将持续立足经营,积极应对行业变化,落实去库存、调结构的经营策略,扎实提升运 营质量,努力为股东创造价值。 ...
保利发展:公司自2022年起坚定“去库存”,推进存量项目销售去化
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-12-17 09:38
(文章来源:证券日报) 证券日报网讯 12月17日,保利发展在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示,公司市值变化受多种因素综合 影响,公司立足持续经营,自2022年起坚定"去库存",推进存量项目销售去化,在保障经营安全基础 上,不断优化资源结构。面对行业新发展模式,公司积极提升产品品质、推进租赁住房业务发展,加强 核心竞争力建设,有信心持续改善经营质量,努力为股东创造价值。 ...
政策“加减法” 中国多城楼市成交走稳
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-12-17 08:24
Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in several core cities in China is stabilizing through supply and demand adjustments, with new and second-hand housing transactions showing growth in the first 11 months of the year [1] Group 1: Supply-Side Adjustments - Cities are implementing "reduction" strategies by controlling new supply to alleviate inventory pressure and stabilize prices, with national real estate development investment down 15.9% and new construction area down 20.5% year-on-year [2] - In Guiyang, the focus has shifted from large-scale projects to smaller, high-quality land parcels, resulting in a 1.9% year-on-year increase in new housing sales over the first ten months [2] Group 2: Cost Reduction Measures - Various regions are reducing housing costs by adjusting restrictive purchasing policies and expanding the use of housing provident funds, such as Shenzhen's new regulations allowing for the withdrawal of funds for down payments and taxes [3] - Yangjiang in Guangdong has introduced tax incentives for housing transactions, which contributed to the sale of 6,260 units [3] Group 3: Policy Innovations - Innovative use of "housing vouchers" is being implemented in several areas, with Quzhou issuing 3,150 vouchers that generated nearly 2 billion yuan in sales and reduced the sales cycle for residential properties [4] - Xiamen has also adopted housing vouchers to channel demand into the primary housing market, resulting in the purchase of 8,743 units from January to October [4] Group 4: Focus on Housing Quality - Enhancing housing quality is a key focus for many regions, with a push for high-quality residential projects that meet market demand, as seen in Wuhan where over 40 premium projects were launched, selling more than 15,000 units [6] - In Dezhou, Shandong, 11 high-quality residential projects sold over 2,800 units, accounting for 20% of the city's total housing sales [6]
控增量、去库存,11月末商品房库存环比再减301万平方米
Bei Ke Cai Jing· 2025-12-15 15:08
据国家统计局数据,1-11月,全国房地产开发投资7.86万亿元,同比下降15.9%,其中住宅投资6.04万亿元,下降15.0%。同期,房地产开发企业房屋施工面 积65.61亿平方米,同比下降9.6%,其中住宅施工面积45.76亿平方米,下降10.0%;房屋新开工面积5.35亿平方米,下降20.5%,其中住宅新开工面积3.92亿 平方米,下降19.9%;房屋竣工面积3.95亿平方米,下降18.0%,其中住宅竣工面积2.81亿平方米,下降20.1%。 在房地产开发企业到位资金方面,1-11月,房地产开发企业到位资金8.51万亿元,同比下降11.9%。其中,国内贷款1.31万亿元,下降2.5%;利用外资23亿 元,下降24.6%;自筹资金3.06万亿元,下降11.9%;定金及预收款2.51万亿元,下降15.2%;个人按揭贷款1.18万亿元,下降15.1%。 12月15日,国家统计局发布2025年1-11月份全国房地产市场基本情况的数据。其中,1-11月,全国房地产开发投资7.86万亿元,同比下降15.9%;新建商品房 销售额7.51万亿元,下降11.1%。值得关注的是,截至11月末,商品房待售面积7.53亿平方米, ...
11月上海、沈阳等8城新房价格上涨,商品房库存实现九连降
11月房地产市场延续调整。 国家统计局数据显示,11月70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格环比总体下降。 资料图 21世纪经济报道记者李莎 报道 11月房地产市场还在波动,但稳楼市政策成效仍在显现,部分大中城市成交相对活跃。 12月15日,国家统计局发布11月房地产数据,11月70个大中城市房价整体仍在调整,但部分指标有所改善,上海、沈阳、南京、合肥、重庆、 贵阳等8个城市新房价格上涨,上涨城市数量较上月有所增加。二手房市场继续呈现"以价换量"特征。 年底置业窗口来临,机构数据显示,11月新房供应阶段性增加,广州、西安、合肥、珠海等地成交环比有不同程度增长。整体来看,1—11月 新建商品房销售仍面临一定调整压力,但降幅较1—10月有所收窄。 随着商品房去库存工作持续推进,11月末,商品房待售面积75306万平方米,比10月末减少301万平方米,库存面积连续9个月下降。 中指研究院指数研究部总经理曹晶晶表示,12月是房企业绩冲刺节点,预计重点城市优质项目入市将有所增加,市场成交量有望保持一定规 模。 商品房库存九连降 在新房市场,11月一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.4%,降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。其中, ...
中指研究院:预计2026年房地产市场分化态势延续 “好城市+好房子”仍具备结构性机会
智通财经网· 2025-12-15 07:32
智通财经APP获悉,中指研究院表示,12月是房企业绩冲刺节点,预计重点城市优质项目入市将有所增加, 市场成交量有望保持一定规模。展望明年,根据中指测算,中性情形下,预计2026年全国新建商品房销售面 积同比下降6.2%,降幅较今年有所收窄,市场分化态势延续,"好城市+好房子"仍具备结构性机会。在控增 量、去库存政策导向下,预计2026年新开工面积下降8.6%,降幅较过去几年明显收窄。供给端缩量有助于市 场库存下降,推动供求关系改善。 01.需求:1-11月全国新建商品房销售面积7.9亿平米,同比下降7.8% 销售面积:根据国家统计局数据,1-11月,全国新建商品房销售面积7.87亿平方米,同比下降7.8%;住宅销 售面积6.58亿平米,同比下降8.1%。 销售额:1-11月,新建商品房销售额7.51万亿元,同比下降11.1%;其中住宅销售额6.60万亿元,同比下降 11.2%。 当前房地产市场已逐步进入以存量为主导阶段,二手房为市场成交的主力。在核心城市,新增供应多通过打 造"好房子"产品来实现品质升级,改善性需求已成为市场重要支撑。二手房主要满足刚需群体,今年以来, 北京、上海300万以下低总价二手房成交同 ...
楼市新信号!11月新房价格环比上涨城市增多,二、三线城市降幅收窄
券商中国· 2025-12-15 04:22
12月15日,国家统计局发布的最新数据显示,11月份,70个大中城市中,新房价格环比上涨城市个数增 加,二、三线城市降幅收窄。 其中,合肥、襄阳新房价格环比涨幅居前,上海新房价格同比涨幅继续第一。 业内人士认为,11月,新房价格指数表现积极向好,新房价格上涨城市数量增多,有助于促进市场预期的进一 步向好。 新房价格环比上涨城市增多 国家统计局的数据显示,11月份,70个大中城市中,新房环比上涨城市个数增加, 二、三线城市降幅收窄。 数据显示,11月份,一线城市新房价格环比下降0.4%,降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。其中,上海上涨0.1%, 北京、广州和深圳分别下降0.5%、0.5%和0.9%。二、三线城市新房价格环比分别下降0.3%和0.4%,降幅均收 窄0.1个百分点。 从二手房来看,11月份,一线城市二手房价环比下降1.1%,降幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点。其中,北京、上 海、广州和深圳分别下降1.3%、0.8%、1.2%和1.0%。二线城市二手房价环比下降0.6%,降幅与上月相同。三 线城市二手房价环比下降0.6%,降幅收窄0.1个百分点。 同比来看,11月份,一线城市新房价格同比下降1.2%,降幅比上月 ...