Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The convertible bond index may face pressure to rise significantly, but there is no systematic risk, and there are structural opportunities. Convertible bonds are still valuable assets. Although the current premium rate is not low and the median absolute price is high, considering the decline in yields of various fixed - income assets, the demand for fixed - income + allocation is strong, supporting the price of convertible bonds. Short - term callbacks may occur, but the amplitude is controllable, and opportunities outweigh risks [4]. - The current market is dominated by bulls. The improvement of grass - roots governance capacity has increased public confidence, leading to a rise in market risk appetite. The market is oscillating horizontally and strengthening step by step, with the financial and technology sectors being the focus [4][8]. - The year - on - year increase of CPI in June provides emotional support to the market. Anti - involution sectors are still under attention, and the real estate sector is expected to improve due to favorable policies [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Convertible Bond Views: Bullish on Convertible Bonds After Continuous Surges - The convertible bond market followed the equity market and rose significantly under the low - position condition, but this week it was relatively restrained with a slight valuation correction. There may be pressure for the convertible bond index to rise further, but there are still structural opportunities. Short - term callbacks are possible, but the amplitude is controllable [4]. - The current emotional source is the growth of public confidence due to the improvement of grass - roots governance capacity. The market is oscillating horizontally and strengthening step by step, and the financial and technology sectors will be the focus. The year - on - year increase of CPI in June provides emotional support to the market, and the real estate sector is expected to improve [8]. 2. Convertible Bond Review: Convertible Bonds Continue to Follow the Rise of Equities 2.1 Market Overall Performance: The Stock Market Continues to Rise, and Convertible Bonds Follow More Restrainedly - From July 7th to July 11th, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and other major stock indices all rose. The real estate, steel, and non - bank finance sectors led the rise, while the coal, banking, and automobile sectors declined. The leading convertible bonds performed weaker than the underlying stocks, and the momentum weakened slightly, but the upward trend of popular individual bonds continued [11]. 2.2 Trading Volume Increases, and Medium - High - Rated and Low - Priced Convertible Bonds Perform Well - This week, convertible bonds continued to rise, and the trading volume increased significantly to 6.8115 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.76%, the parity center rose 1.5% to 102.1 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center fell 2.2% to 23.1%. In terms of style, medium - high - rated and low - priced convertible bonds performed well, while large - cap and high - priced convertible bonds were relatively weak [4][17].

Group 1 - Wuxi Zhenhua (605319) issued convertible bonds named "Xizhen Convertible Bonds," which began trading on July 14, with a current stock price of 31.98 yuan and a conversion price of 31.98 yuan, resulting in a conversion value of 100 [1] - The subscription number for the convertible bonds was relatively low at 71,700, attributed to a small issuance scale of 520 million yuan and approximately 86.20% of the shares being allocated to existing shareholders [2] - The bonds received an AA- rating, indicating a strong position in the convertible bond market, with expectations that the bonds could rise above 300 yuan upon listing, potentially providing significant returns for investors [2] Group 2 - The current market for newly issued convertible bonds is experiencing high demand, often leading to price surges on the first trading day, comparable to the excitement surrounding new stock listings [5] - Many individual stocks are currently underperforming, while the market is seeing strong performances from bank stocks and active small-cap stocks, creating a disparity in market dynamics [5] - There is a significant amount of capital on the sidelines, waiting for market indices to break key resistance levels, which could trigger a wave of investment into the stock market, leading to a positive feedback loop of rising prices and increased buying [7]

Group 1 - The convertible bond market has shown strong performance in 2023, with the China Convertible Bond Index rising 8.28% year-to-date, reaching a nearly 10-year high, indicating its unique value as a balanced investment option [1] - Convertible bonds possess both "equity" and "debt" characteristics, providing upside potential during stock market rallies and relative stability during downturns [1] - The overall trend for convertible bonds has been a steady upward movement, with a significant rebound after a mid-March correction, outperforming major A-share indices [1] Group 2 - The emergence of high-performing convertible bonds, such as Huicheng Convertible Bond, which reached a price of 2,231.292 yuan on July 4 and exceeded 2,400 yuan shortly after, highlights the market's strength [2] - Huicheng Convertible Bond has surged 149.48% this year, following a 188.95% increase last year, largely driven by the strong performance of its underlying stock, Huicheng Environmental [2] - A total of 58 convertible bonds have been delisted this year, with 70% triggering early redemption clauses due to rising stock prices, indicating a tightening supply-demand dynamic in the market [2] Group 3 - Analysts attribute the strong performance of the convertible bond market to several factors, including the robust performance of small and mid-cap stocks and the increasing number of early redemption cases, which have tightened market conditions [2] - The Longcheng Fund's fixed income team believes that the strong performance is supported by structural factors in the underlying stock market and the low yields of pure debt assets, which have led to capital flowing into the convertible bond market [2] - Future performance of the convertible bond market will depend significantly on the trends of the underlying stocks, as current valuations appear elevated with insufficient downside protection [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) has launched a public offering of 4.9 billion yuan convertible bonds, which is the second-largest issuance of convertible bonds this year, amid a low supply of new bonds in the market [1][4]. Group 1: Convertible Bond Issuance - The convertible bond, named "CGN Convertible Bond," has an initial conversion price of 3.67 yuan per share and a credit rating of AAA [4]. - The funds raised will be used for the construction of the 5th and 6th units of the Lufeng Nuclear Power Plant in Guangdong [5]. - The issuance is expected to improve the market's supply-demand situation, as the convertible bond is considered a top-tier product due to its size and rating [7]. Group 2: Market Context - The market for convertible bonds is currently experiencing a decline in new issuances, while the number of bonds being delisted, particularly bank convertible bonds, is increasing [1][8]. - Recent delistings include the Hangzhou Bank Convertible Bond and the South Bank Convertible Bond, indicating a tightening market for convertible bonds [8]. Group 3: Impact on Subscription Rate - Historical data shows a positive correlation between the issuance size of convertible bonds and the subscription rate, with larger issuances typically resulting in higher subscription rates [10][11]. - The subscription rate for CGN's convertible bond is expected to be significantly higher, although it may be influenced by the participation of the controlling shareholder, CGN Group [12].

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 以下文章来源于债券人 ，作者光大证券固收研究 债券人 . 唯有进行扎实的基本面研究，方能行稳致远。 转债价格的均值为121.66元（上周为120.19元），分位值为81.3%（上周为72.9%）； 转债平价的均值为93.22元（上周为92.52元），分位值为65.9%（上周为61.5%）； 转债转股溢价率的均值为29.8%（上周为30.3%），分位值为59.9%（上周为60.9%）；其中，中平价（转 股价值为90至110元之间）可转债的转股溢价率为24.2%（上周为23.4%），高于2018年以来中平价转债转 股溢价率的中位数（19.8%）。 3、可转债表现和配置方向 本周转债市场继续回暖，本周中证转债指数录得+1.1%涨幅。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The convertible bond market is experiencing significant growth, driven by a recovering stock market, with a transaction volume exceeding 6 trillion yuan and a year-on-year increase of over 28% as of June 6 [1] Market Performance - The convertible bond market has shown steady performance, with the China Convertible Bond Index rising by 4.67% year-to-date, compared to a 1% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [3] - As of June 6, the total outstanding convertible bonds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 674.06 billion yuan, a decrease of 59.56 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [2] - In 2023, the total issuance of convertible bonds reached 143.33 billion yuan, while in 2024, it is projected to be 36.76 billion yuan [2] Valuation Outlook - The average price of convertible bonds is currently at 134.01 yuan, with an average conversion premium of 44.9%, indicating a "high price, high premium" characteristic [4] - The scarcity of bank convertible bonds is expected to increase their valuation, with several bonds nearing redemption triggers [5] Investment Strategy - Analysts suggest maintaining a neutral position in convertible bonds, focusing on those with higher yield to maturity (YTM) and lower conversion premiums [6] - Investment opportunities should prioritize growth-themed stocks and consider bonds nearing maturity while avoiding low-liquidity, low-priced bonds [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond valuation first declined and then rebounded, remaining relatively strong, due to the active small - cap style and prominent supply - demand contradiction. The "calendar effect" was not obvious in April 2025, with the small - cap style remaining active. The convertible bond valuation showed significant differentiation in high - low ratings and large - small caps, with balanced and equity - biased valuations remaining firm, while bond - biased convertible bond valuations declined significantly [3][21]. - In 2024, the number of convertible bonds with losses increased, and the power equipment industry started to incur large - scale losses. Convertible bonds with continuous losses or large first - time losses have a higher probability of rating downgrades. Although the risk of rating downgrades for photovoltaic convertible bonds that have received letters of concern is expected to be controllable, individual cases still need attention [3]. - Appropriate layout of underlying stocks, trading rules, and position ratio settings can enhance the returns of the near - maturity strategy. However, after adding position settings, the average return increases, but so does the maximum drawdown, so the overall position limit for the near - maturity strategy of underlying stocks should be moderately reduced [3]. - The top ten convertible bond portfolio for May includes high - dividend varieties (Shangyin, Lantian, Lvyin), high - growth performance directions (Guangda, Yangfeng), technology directions (Dinglong), robot directions (Huitong and Baolong), and directions with stable main businesses and elasticity (Wankai and Huayang) [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 4 - month Convertible Bond Market Review - In April, the median convertible bond price reached a low of 115 yuan, and there was no obvious differentiation between high - and low - priced bonds. The convertible bond price differentiation was not obvious in terms of large - small caps and high - low ratings, but was obvious in theme styles, with the financial and real estate sectors leading the gains [6][8][12]. - The small - cap style was active in April, and the "calendar effect" was not obvious. The convertible bonds outperformed the underlying stocks due to their defensive properties and recovered the "lost ground" since the beginning of the year [17][18]. - The convertible bond valuation first declined and then rebounded, remaining relatively strong. It showed significant differentiation in high - low ratings and large - small caps, and the core of the differentiation lies in the difference in the bottom - up value. The valuation supported high - priced bonds but dragged down low - priced bonds [21][24][30]. 3.2 5 - month Convertible Bond Market Outlook - As of the end of April, the convertible bond market's outstanding scale reached 689 billion yuan, ending a 19 - month decline. However, according to historical issuance patterns, the issuance volume in May may be limited, and the outstanding scale is likely to continue to decline. A new issuance peak may occur from October to November, and the top three industries in terms of issuance scale in the "exchange - accepted" state are banking, power equipment, and public utilities [43]. - The performance of convertible bonds in 2024 was generally poor, with an increase in the number of loss - making convertible bonds, especially in the power equipment industry. Convertible bonds with continuous losses or large first - time losses have a higher probability of rating downgrades. Although the risk of rating downgrades for photovoltaic convertible bonds that have received letters of concern is expected to be controllable, other industries' convertible bonds with continuous losses or losses exceeding 500 million yuan need close attention [55][61][69]. 3.3 Fund's Convertible Bond Holdings in 2025Q1 - By the end of 2025Q1, the total market value of the convertible bond market (including exchangeable bonds) was approximately 815.9 billion yuan. The total net value of funds within the statistical scope was 31.13 trillion yuan. The ratio of convertible bond market value to fund total market value was about 2.62%. All funds held convertible bonds worth approximately 281.99 billion yuan, accounting for 34.56% of the total convertible bond market value, an increase of 0.96 percentage points from the previous quarter [75]. - The convertible bond positions of funds decreased quarter - on - quarter. Structurally, the convertible bond positions of secondary bond funds decreased, while those of primary bond funds and convertible bond funds increased. The convertible bond positions of different types of funds showed different trends [77][84]. - Funds increased their holdings of photovoltaic convertible bonds. Different - scale funds had different preferences for increasing or decreasing their holdings of convertible bonds [88][90]. - At the end of 2025Q1, the convertible bond holdings of partial - debt hybrid, ordinary stock - type, and primary bond funds were concentrated in the balanced area. The equity - related demands of primary and secondary bond funds for convertible bonds increased [94]. 3.4 Near - Maturity Convertible Bond Strategy and Monthly Top Ten Combinations - The proportion of near - maturity convertible bonds (defined as those with a static remaining term of less than 2 years) has significantly increased, accounting for 29.41% of the total number of convertible bonds in the market. Convertible bonds with individual actual controllers have a higher proportion and more significant conversion - promotion effects [101]. - The timing of participating in near - maturity convertible bonds involves a trade - off between win - rate and cost - effectiveness. Buying at a lower price closer to the redemption price is associated with a higher win - rate and average return [110][112]. - Appropriate layout of underlying stocks, trading rules, and position ratio settings can enhance the returns of the near - maturity strategy. After adding position settings, the average return increases to 14.98%, but the maximum drawdown also rises significantly, so the overall position limit should be moderately reduced [114][117]. - The top ten convertible bond portfolio for May includes high - dividend varieties (Shangyin, Lantian, Lvyin), high - growth performance directions (Guangda, Yangfeng), technology directions (Dinglong), robot directions (Huitong and Baolong), and directions with stable main businesses and elasticity (Wankai and Huayang) [118].