今日早参 2026 年 2 月 05 日 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 刘俊 电力设备与新能源行业首席研究员 座机：85293275834 邮箱：karlliu@htsc.com 姚雪梅 农林牧渔行业首席研究员 邮箱：yaoxuemei@htsc.com 樊俊豪 金控研究部负责人暨可选消费首席研 究员 邮箱：fanjunhao@htsc.com 今日热点 固定收益：沿着五大叙事与情绪钟摆找机会 近期市场波动明显加大，背后既受到资金和情绪钟摆的推动，又受到几大宏 观叙事的变化影响，具体包括：1）商品超级周期的演绎节奏和斜率；2）商 品涨价推动全球宏观象限或从复苏逐渐转向过热；3）流动性环境面临的扰 动与结构性机会；4）AI 链的分化是否会迎来收敛；5）春节前后的国内市场 的变化。配置策略上，短期市场波动率预计将维持高位，但市场情绪如钟 摆，在趋势未变的情况下，恐惧往往带来机会，同时关注宏观叙事变化背后 蕴含的趋势性机会。 风险提示：1）美国关税政策对经济的滞后效应；2）海外通胀超预期；3） 如果出口限制蔓延到长单，对中国月度消 ...

Group 1 - Shenzhen Customs successfully completed its first export of lithium battery packaging under the smart supervision system, allowing for quick release of goods without on-site inspection [1] - The system aims to enhance efficiency in customs procedures for lithium-ion battery exports [1] Group 2 - In 2026, 30 provinces in China have set GDP growth targets around 5%, with several major provinces aiming for over 5% [2] - Shanghai plans to invest 255 billion yuan in major projects this year, focusing on infrastructure development including new rail lines [3] Group 3 - The central government's No. 1 document emphasizes agricultural modernization and rural revitalization, with a focus on increasing grain production and supporting farmers' income [4] - In 2025, grain production reached a record high of 14,298 billion jin, an increase of 168 billion jin [4] Group 4 - The net financing of interbank certificates of deposit has been negative for three consecutive months, indicating a contraction in bank liabilities [5] - The issuance rate of interbank certificates has decreased, reflecting improved deposit conditions and a more relaxed liquidity environment [5] Group 5 - The first batch of commercial real estate REITs plans to raise over 31.4 billion yuan, with underlying assets performing well [6] - The expected distribution rate for these REITs is projected to be above 4.5%, with some nearing 5.5% [6] Group 6 - In January, over 15 million units of home appliances and digital products were sold under the old-for-new subsidy policy, generating nearly 59 billion yuan in sales [8] - The policy has been implemented across 32 regions, with detailed guidelines issued in 19 areas [8] Group 7 - Adobe's stock fell by 5.5% after announcing the discontinuation of its animation software, Adobe Animate, which will cease sales in March 2026 [14] - The decision is attributed to technological advancements and changing user needs [14] Group 8 - Walmart's market value surpassed 1 trillion dollars for the first time, reflecting a 13% increase in its stock price this year [14]

证券研究报告 房地产 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 01 日 证券分析师 邓力 SAC：S1350525070006 dengli@jzsec.com 陈颖 SAC：S1350525110002 chenying02@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 国务院支持旅居项目建设，关注地产板块配置价值 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——房地产行业周报（26/1/24-26/1/30） | | | 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 板块行情：本周上证指数下跌 0.4%、深证成指下跌 1.6%、创业板指下跌 0.1%、沪深 300 上 升 0.1%、房地产（申万）下跌 2.2%。个股方面，涨跌幅前五的分别为：大悦城(+17.1%)、 京能置业(+12.5%)、新城控股(+11.4%)、京投发展(+7.7%)、招商蛇口(+7.1%)，涨跌幅后五 的分别为：华联控股(-14.9%)、西藏城投(-13.6%)、城建发展(-12.9%)、华夏幸福(-11.9%)、 万通发展(-11.5%)。 联系人 板块表现： ...

公开数据显示，截至2月1日，境内市场已成立公募REITs共80只，融资金额超2000亿元，资产类型涵盖产业园区、仓储物流、能源、保租房等。此次首批商 业不动产REITs上报，将进一步丰富公募REITs的资产类型，促进商业不动产行业的发展。 北京商报讯（记者 李海媛）在商业不动产投资信托基金（REITs）试点政策落地后，首批产品陆续上报。记者注意到，近日，上交所受理8单商业不动产 REITs项目，基金管理人包括国泰海通资管、华夏基金、汇添富基金、华安基金，预计募集金额合计超300亿元。首批项目的资产形态包括商业综合体、商 业零售、商业办公楼等商业不动产。有观点指出，商业不动产REITs的推出对盘活存量资产具有较好的导向，对于商业地产的开发商而言也意味着更好的融 资渠道的建立。 | | 上海增养交易所 REITS 首页 | 项目动态 | 信息披露 | 行情信息 | 新闻动态 | 规则指南 | 业务 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目状态 | 美部 己申报 日受理 | 已反馈 通过 | 未通过 | | | | | | 編号 | 公墓REI ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, indicating a positive outlook for quality commercial real estate and potential value reassessment [4][6]. Core Insights - The first batch of three commercial real estate REITs has been accepted by the CSRC, covering underlying assets such as office buildings, hotels, and outlet malls. The expected fundraising sizes are CNY 4.002 billion for Huatai Fu Shanghai Real Estate REIT, CNY 7.47 billion for CICC Vipshop REIT, and CNY 1.703 billion for Huaan Jinjiang REIT, with projected cash distribution rates of 4.50%, 4.57%, and 5.05% respectively for 2026 [2][4][5]. - The rapid advancement of commercial real estate REITs by the CSRC is expected to lead to a broader range of participants and faster approvals in the future. This contrasts with the slower progress seen in infrastructure REITs under the NDRC [4][5]. - The establishment of a multi-tiered market for commercial real estate asset securitization is anticipated to activate existing assets, mitigate risks, and assist in corporate transformation. This will provide new financing channels and enhance the visibility of asset values [4][5]. - The report highlights two significant opportunities: the reassessment of quality commercial real estate values and the strength of premium products in core cities, suggesting that further supportive policies for the real estate market are likely to emerge [4][6]. Summary by Sections REITs Overview - The first three commercial real estate REITs cover assets including office buildings and hotels, with expected fundraising sizes of CNY 40.02 billion, CNY 74.7 billion, and CNY 17.03 billion, and cash distribution rates projected at 4.50%, 4.57%, and 5.05% for 2026 respectively [4][5]. Differences Between REITs - The report outlines key differences between NDRC and CSRC REITs, including the asset ownership structure, approval processes, and types of underlying assets, indicating a shift towards including private enterprises in the CSRC REITs [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including New Town Holdings, China Resources Land, Kerry Properties, Longfor Group, and others in the commercial real estate sector, as well as quality property management firms [4][6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - 1月29 - 30日上交所申报8单商业不动产REITs，拟募资314.8亿元，截至1月30日，2025年以来已成功发行20单，发行规模403亿元，本周10单首发公募REITs有新进展，中核清洁能源REIT将于2月2日上市 [4]。 - 本周中证REITs全收益指数收于1052.42点，涨幅0.47%，年初至今涨幅4.22%，产权类REITs涨0.27%，特许经营权类REITs涨0.69%，能源、环保水务等板块表现占优 [4]。 - 流动性方面，产权类/特许经营权类REITs本周日均换手率0.58%/0.44%，较上周-14.01/-2.61BP，周内成交量6.14/1.46亿份，周环比-17.82%/-5.64% [4]。 - 估值方面，产权类/特许经营权类REITs中债估值收益率分别为3.69%/4.78%，交通、仓储物流、园区板块位列前三 [4]。 Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market - 本周共10单首发公募REITs取得新进展，8单商业不动产REITs申报至证监会并获受理，中航北京昌保租赁住房REIT、中金火炬产业园REIT已问询 [4][14]。 - 截至2026/1/30，2025年以来已成功发行20单，发行规模403亿元 [4]。 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Market Review - 本周中证REITs全收益指数涨幅0.47%，跑赢沪深300 0.39个百分点、跑输中证红利1.11个百分点，年初至今涨幅4.22%，跑赢沪深300 2.57个百分点、跑赢中证红利0.65个百分点 [4]。 - 分项目属性，本周产权类REITs上涨0.27%，特许经营权类REITs上涨0.69%；分资产类型，能源(+1.43%)、环保水务(+0.87%)、交通(+0.45%)、园区(+0.39%)板块表现占优 [4]。 2.2 Liquidity - 产权类/特许经营权类REITs本周日均换手率0.58%/0.44%，较上周-14.01/-2.61BP，周内成交量6.14/1.46亿份，周环比-17.82%/-5.64%，数据中心板块活跃度最高 [4][23]。 2.3 Valuation - 中债估值收益率方面，产权类/特许经营权类REITs分别为3.69%/4.78%，交通（5.92%）、仓储物流（5.29%）、园区（4.39%）板块位列前三，保障房板块估值较高 [4][27]。 3. This Week's News and Important Announcements 3.1 This Week's News - 1月24日，南京提出把握基础设施REITs扩围机遇，做好多领域项目储备申报 [31]。 - 1月27日，保利发展宣布申报商业不动产REITs [31]。 - 1月29日，北京举办商业不动产REITs政策解读培训会，首批商业不动产REITs申报至证监会，茂业商业调整底层资产 [31]。 - 1月30日，石锦瑞股权投资基金拟申报商业不动产公募REITs，5只商业不动产REITs申报至上交所 [31]。 3.2 Important Announcements - 华夏中核清洁能源REIT将于2月2日上市 [32]。 - 华夏越秀高速REIT公布2025年12月运营数据 [32]。 - 华夏南京交通高速公路REIT拟变更资金用途 [32]。 - 华安外高桥REIT拟申请扩募并新购入仓储项目 [32]。

Core Viewpoint - The first three commercial real estate REITs have officially submitted applications to the Shanghai Stock Exchange, marking a significant step in expanding China's public REITs system from infrastructure to broader commercial real estate [1][3] Group 1: Market Development - The expansion of public REITs into commercial real estate is driven by market demand and aims to optimize the financial structure of the real estate sector [3] - Commercial real estate typically features large asset volumes, long operating cycles, and relatively stable cash flows, but lacks liquidity; REITs can help convert these "idle assets" into tradable financial assets [3] - The rapid acceptance of the first batch of commercial real estate REITs signals regulatory encouragement for market-driven asset revitalization and guiding long-term capital into the real economy [3] Group 2: Project Structure - The three REITs focus on different asset types and operational models: - Huatai Fuhua Shanghai Real Estate REITs targets office and supporting commercial assets in core cities with stable leases - CICC Vipshop REITs is based on mature retail commercial projects leveraging long-term operational traffic and brand advantages - Huaan Jinjiang REITs centers on hotel assets across multiple cities, showcasing diversified layouts and scale effects [4] - This multi-business model approach will help test the adaptability of different commercial models within the REITs framework [4] Group 3: Macroeconomic Context - China's economy is undergoing structural adjustments and transitioning from high-leverage, high-turnover models to more stable, operation-focused approaches in the real estate sector [4] - The introduction of commercial real estate REITs provides new exit and refinancing channels for existing commercial assets, improving corporate asset-liability structures and reducing systemic risks [4] - Commercial real estate REITs represent not only an innovation in financial instruments but also a crucial part of the shift in real estate development logic, focusing on market mechanisms for asset value reassessment and resource optimization [4] Group 4: Investment Perspective - Commercial real estate REITs introduce a new asset class to the capital market that combines equity characteristics with fixed-income features, appealing to insurance funds, pensions, and long-term stable capital [5] - The income from these REITs primarily comes from rental or operational income distribution, which may exhibit lower volatility compared to stocks but higher than traditional bonds, making them attractive in a low-interest-rate environment [5] - Investors will increasingly focus on asset quality, regional economic conditions, and management capabilities as the REITs market develops [5] Group 5: Long-term Outlook - The development of commercial real estate REITs is expected to foster a virtuous cycle in the commercial real estate industry, facilitating a "development-operation-exit-reinvestment" model [6] - Quality assets can be released through REITs, allowing companies to free up capital for new projects or core business development, while investors can participate in commercial real estate investments through public markets [6] - As market awareness increases and supporting systems improve, commercial real estate REITs are likely to become a vital link between the real economy and capital markets, contributing positively to growth stabilization, transformation promotion, and financial resource optimization [6]

Core Viewpoint - The first batch of three commercial real estate REITs has been approved by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a total fundraising scale of 13.175 billion yuan [1] Group 1: REITs Overview - The three commercial real estate REITs include: Huatai Fuhua Shanghai Real Estate Closed-end Commercial Real Estate Investment Fund, CICC Vipshop Closed-end Commercial Real Estate Investment Fund, and Huaan Jinjiang Closed-end Commercial Real Estate Investment Fund [1][3] - The projects under these REITs consist of office and commercial spaces, as well as hotels, located in various cities including Zhengzhou, Harbin, and Guangzhou [3] Group 2: Policy and Market Implications - The launch of commercial real estate REITs is seen as a significant step in expanding the public REITs scope to include commercial properties, which is crucial for revitalizing existing commercial assets and supporting new real estate development models [3][4] - The Beijing Securities Regulatory Bureau has organized training sessions to interpret the policies related to commercial real estate REITs, emphasizing the importance of these initiatives for the capital market and the real economy [3] - Sichuan Securities Regulatory Bureau is enhancing departmental collaboration to prepare for innovation in commercial real estate REITs, focusing on understanding policies and mobilizing market participants [4]

| 编号 | 公募REITs名称 | 管理人 | 项目北 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 国泰海通砂之船封闭式商业不动产证券投资基金 | 国泰海通资管 | 己申 | | 2 | 华夏凯德封闭式商业不动产证券投资基金 | や夏基金 | 己申 | | 3 | 华夏银泰百货封闭式商业不动产证券投资基金 | や直事等 | 己申 | | ব | 华夏保利发展封闭式商业不动产证券投资基金 | で直基等 | 日中 | | 5 | 华安陆家嘴封闭式商业不动产证券投资基金 | 华安基金 | 己申 | （文章来源：第一财经） 证监会官网信息显示，华夏基金于30日上报3单商业不动产REITs，分别为华夏凯德封闭式商业不动产证券投资基金、华夏银泰百货封闭式商业不动产证券 投资基金、华夏保利发展封闭式商业不动产证券投资基金。此外，30日上报的商业不动产REITs，还有国泰海通砂之船封闭式商业不动产证券投资基金、华 安陆家嘴封闭式商业不动产证券投资基金。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The first batch of commercial real estate REITs has been officially accepted by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), marking a significant step in the development of the REITs market in China [1][2]. Group 1: REITs Acceptance and Details - On January 29, the CSRC announced the acceptance of three commercial real estate REITs: Huaan Jinjiang Closed-End Commercial Real Estate Securities Investment Fund, Huatai-PineBridge Shanghai Real Estate Closed-End Commercial Real Estate Securities Investment Fund, and CICC Vipshop Closed-End Commercial Real Estate Securities Investment Fund [1][2]. - The three REITs are set to be listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with Huaan Jinjiang aiming to raise approximately 1.703 billion yuan, backed by 21 "Jinjiang Metropolo" brand hotels across 18 cities [2]. - The operational metrics for Huaan Jinjiang indicate a total of 803,750 available rooms, an average occupancy rate of 61.58%, and an average room price of 258.33 yuan, with a market value of the real estate project estimated at 1.701 billion yuan as of September 30, 2025 [2]. Group 2: Other REITs and Market Trends - The Huatai-PineBridge Shanghai Real Estate REIT is expected to raise around 4.002 billion yuan, with projected distributable amounts of approximately 180.19 million yuan in 2026 and 182.98 million yuan in 2027 [3]. - The CICC Vipshop REIT plans to raise about 7.470 billion yuan, with estimated combined distributable amounts of 341.42 million yuan in 2026 and 372.56 million yuan in 2027, backed by the Zhengzhou and Harbin outlets [3]. - Several listed companies, including Poly Developments and Maoye Commercial, have announced plans to apply for commercial real estate public REITs, indicating a growing interest in this investment vehicle [4][6].