美豆价格小幅上涨，天气炒作能否推动价格持续走高？需求增速超供应会否推动玉米价格回升？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

价格展望：播种加快更容易引发天气炒作？5-6月美豆期货上涨规律会否重演？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View The overall situation of the feed and breeding industry is complex, with different products showing various trends. Pig prices are under pressure in the short - and long - term due to supply - demand imbalances. Egg prices are also under pressure because of high supply. The oil market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and may decline in the second quarter before rebounding in the third quarter. The short - term trend of soybean meal is expected to be low - level volatile, while the medium - and long - term trend is expected to be stable and upward. Corn prices are expected to be stable and upward in the long - term but with limited upside space [1][2][7][8]. Summary by Category Pig - **Spot Price**: On May 22, the spot price in Liaoning was 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg (stable), in Henan 14.4 - 15 yuan/kg (down 0.1 yuan/kg), in Sichuan 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg (stable), and in Guangdong 15 - 15.5 yuan/kg (stable) [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In May, the supply pressure is accumulating. Although the short - term supply pressure is released, the long - term supply is expected to increase from May to September 2024. The demand is weak, and the supply - demand game intensifies [1]. - **Price Trend**: In the short - term, the pig price fluctuates frequently. In the long - term, there is a risk of price decline. The forward price is under pressure [1]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy at the resistance level. The resistance and support levels for the 07 contract are 13700 - 13800 and 13000 - 13100 respectively, and for the 09 contract are 14000 - 14200 and 13300 - 13400 respectively. Sell out - of - the - money call options on the 09 contract when the price rebounds [1]. Egg - **Spot Price**: On May 22, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 2.9 yuan/jin (down 0.2 yuan/jin), and in Beijing 3.3 yuan/jin (stable) [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term demand may increase, but supply is continuously accumulating. The high supply situation is not alleviated [2]. - **Price Trend**: The short - term price is under pressure. In the long - term, the supply is expected to increase [2]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see for the 06 contract. Adopt a short - selling strategy for the 08 and 09 contracts when the price rebounds, and pay attention to the resistance level of 3750 - 3800 for the 08 contract [2]. Oil Palm Oil - **International Market**: On May 21, the Malaysian palm oil 08 contract closed at 3896 ringgit/ton (down 0.36%). The supply and demand are both weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and the 08 contract is expected to trade in the range of 3800 - 4000 [2][3][4]. - **Domestic Market**: From May, a large amount of palm oil will arrive in China. The inventory has increased to 35.97 tons and is expected to continue to accumulate slowly [4]. Soybean Oil - **International Market**: The US biodiesel policy is negative for soybean oil. The short - term trend of US soybeans is expected to be volatile, and the 07 contract is expected to trade in the range of 1040 - 1050 [5]. - **Domestic Market**: The soybean arrival volume from May to July is expected to reach about 1 million tons per month. The soybean oil inventory has started to increase to 65.63 tons, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [5]. Rapeseed Oil - **International Market**: The supply and demand of Canadian rapeseed are tightening. The short - term trend of ICE rapeseed is expected to be volatile and upward [6]. - **Domestic Market**: The rapeseed oil inventory is at a high level of 87 tons. The supply pressure is high in the short - term. If the supply tightens, the inventory is expected to gradually decrease [6]. - **Overall Strategy**: The 09 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to be volatile in the short - term, trading in the ranges of 7700 - 8000, 7800 - 8200, and 9200 - 9500 respectively. Adopt a short - selling strategy with caution at high prices. Pay long - term attention to the strategy of expanding the price difference between soybean - palm oil and rapeseed - palm oil for the 09 contracts [7]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Price**: On May 21, the US soybean 07 contract closed at 1062.75 cents/bushel (up 9.75 cents). The domestic M2509 contract closed at 2934 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China was 2890 yuan/ton [7]. - **Price Trend**: In the short - term, the US soybean price is expected to be volatile, and the domestic spot price is expected to be weak. The 09 contract is expected to be strong. In the long - term, the domestic soybean meal price is expected to be strong [7][8]. - **Strategy**: Do not chase long positions for the 09 contract in the short - term. Adopt a long - buying strategy on dips after mid - June [8]. Corn - **Spot Price**: On May 21, the purchase price of new corn at Jinzhou Port was 2280 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), and the purchase price at Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2468 yuan/ton (stable) [8]. - **Price Trend**: In the short - term, the price is supported. In the long - term, the price has an upward drive, but the upside space is limited [8]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a long - buying strategy at the lower edge of the range for the 07 contract. Pay attention to the positive spread strategy between the 7 - 9 contracts [8]. Today's Futures Market Overview | Variety | Previous Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Two Days Ago Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean Active (Cents/Bushel) | 1,061.75 | 1,054.25 | 7.50 | | Soybean Meal Main Contract (Yuan/Ton) | 2,934 | 2,889 | 45.00 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Meal (Yuan/Ton) | 2,880 | 2,880 | 0.00 | | CBOT Corn Active (Cents/Bushel) | 460.00 | 454.50 | 5.50 | | Corn Main Contract (Yuan/Ton) | 2,324 | 2,312 | 12.00 | | Dalian Corn Spot (Yuan/Ton) | 2,310 | 2,310 | 0.00 | | CBOT Soybean Oil Active (Cents/Pound) | 49.75 | 49.57 | 0.18 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Oil (Yuan/Ton) | 8,140 | 8,230 | - 90.00 | | BMD Palm Oil Active (Ringgit/Ton) | 3,896 | 3,910 | - 14.00 | | Guangzhou Palm Oil Spot (Yuan/Ton) | 8,600 | 8,650 | - 50.00 | | ICE Rapeseed Active (Canadian Dollar/Ton) | 719.60 | 704.40 | 15.20 | | Fangchenggang Rapeseed Oil Spot (Yuan/Ton) | 9,450 | 9,400 | 50.00 | | Egg Main Contract (Yuan/500 Kilograms) | 2,959 | 2,964 | - 5.00 | | Dezhou Egg Spot (Yuan/Jin) | 3.00 | 3.05 | - 0.05 | | Pig Futures Main Contract (Yuan/Ton) | 13,650 | 13,690 | - 40.00 | | Henan Pig Spot (Yuan/Kilogram) | 14.60 | 14.60 | 0.00 | [9]

| I C E H Ho | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 日博策略参 | | | | 发布日期:2025/05 | | 行业板块 趋势研判 品种 | | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | 随着市场对关税冲击的波动与政策护盘动能趋于衰减,加上当前 | | 股指 震荡 | | 反弹已至区间上沿,在缺乏增量催化因素的背景下,短期或转入 | | | | 震荡整固阶段,策略上、短线多单考虑冲高止盈, 警惕调整风险 | | 宏观金融 震荡 | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | 国债 | | 空间。 | | 賣金 農汤 | | 多空交织，短期金价或盘整震荡;但中长期上涨逻辑尚未改变。 | | 白银 震荡 | C B | 跟随黄金宽幅震荡, 但中期上方空间有限。 | | 看空 第四 | | 近期国内外宏观数据偏弱压制市场风险偏好,叠加铜下游需求有 | | | | 所转弱,铜价短期偏弱运行。 | | 農汤 | | 近期电解铝低库存对铝价仍有支撑,但随着铝价走高,上行空间 | | | | 受限,预计近期震荡运行。 | | 氢化 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the rebound in soybean prices driven by technical factors, despite poor export data, indicating potential for further price increases due to upcoming weather speculation [1] Group 1: Price Movement - Soybean prices are experiencing a rebound, influenced by technical market factors [1] - The current price trend suggests that there is still room for price increases in the near future [1] Group 2: Export Data - Recent export data for soybeans has been disappointing, which typically would exert downward pressure on prices [1] - However, the negative impact of this data is being overshadowed by other market dynamics [1] Group 3: Weather Speculation - Anticipation of weather-related events is expected to drive market speculation, contributing to potential price increases [1] - The combination of technical factors and weather speculation creates a complex market environment for soybeans [1]

Core Insights - The planting progress of soybeans and corn in the United States is advancing at an unusual pace, which may impact future prices significantly [1] Group 1: Planting Progress - The current planting progress for soybeans and corn is ahead of schedule, indicating a potential increase in supply [1] - This accelerated planting could lead to downward pressure on prices if the trend continues [1] Group 2: Weather Impact - There is speculation regarding when weather-related trading opportunities may arise, which could further influence market dynamics [1]

美豆价格从低点反弹，玉米、小麦逼近两周高点，天气炒作会否接棒引爆农产品行情？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...