Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Report date: October 9, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level, with enterprise inventories accumulating. Both industrial and agricultural demand are weak, resulting in an obvious oversupply situation in the domestic urea market. Although the international urea price is strong, its support for the domestic price is limited. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. - The main influencing factors are the international price and the marginal change in domestic demand. The main risk is the change in export policies [5]. Group 4: Urea Overview Fundamental Analysis - The daily production and operating rate are slightly down but still high, and enterprise inventories are accumulating, with inventories increasing in many provinces such as Gansu and Hebei. Both industrial and agricultural demand are weak, and the third - batch export quota has limited support for domestic prices. The overall domestic urea supply exceeds demand, and the spot price of the delivery product is 1740 (unchanged), showing a generally bearish fundamental situation [4]. Basis Analysis - The basis of the UR2601 contract is 70, with a premium - discount ratio of 4.0%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. Inventory Analysis - The UR comprehensive inventory is 152.5 million tons (+10.4), showing a bearish signal [4]. Disk Analysis - The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [4]. Main Position Analysis - The net long position of the UR main contract is decreasing, showing a bullish signal [4]. Expectation - The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate. The international urea price is strong but has limited support for the domestic price. With weak industrial and agricultural demand and obvious domestic oversupply, the UR contract is expected to move in a volatile manner today [4]. Factors Analysis - Bullish factor: The international price is strong [5]. - Bearish factors: High operating rate and daily production, and weak domestic demand [5]. Group 5: Market Data Spot and Futures Market | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot delivery product | 1740 | 0 | 01 contract | 1670 | 6 | | Shandong spot | 1740 | 0 | Basis | 70 | - 6 | | Henan spot | 1750 | 0 | UR01 | 1670 | 6 | | FOB China | 3186 | | UR05 | 1717 | 2 | | | | | UR09 | 1742 | 7 | [6] Inventory Data | Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Warehouse receipts | 7169 | - 42 | | UR comprehensive inventory | 152.5 million tons | +10.4 | | UR manufacturer inventory | 102.4 million tons | | | UR port inventory | 50.1 million tons | | [6] Group 6: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | PP Import Dependency | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the supply side of urea will continue to climb as maintenance devices return and new capacities are released, with daily production expected to stay above 200,000 tons. The demand side remains weak overall, with agricultural demand softening after the autumn fertilizer season, but northeastern winter storage starting. Exports are approaching the deadline, and policy changes should be monitored. Urea will remain under pressure in October [5][88]. - For trading strategies, it is expected to be range - bound before the middle of the month. After the middle of the month, short - selling is recommended in the absence of new policies. For inter - period arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see. The lower and upper bounds for options are 1550 and 1700 respectively [6][88]. Summary by Directory 1. Foreword Summary Comprehensive Analysis - In October, the supply of urea will increase steadily, while the demand is weak. Agricultural demand is sluggish after the autumn fertilizer season, and although northeastern winter storage has started, exports are approaching the deadline, so urea is under pressure [5]. Strategy Recommendation - **Unilateral trading**: Range - bound before the middle of the month, and short - selling after the middle of the month without new policies. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see for inter - period arbitrage. - **Options**: The lower bound is 1550, and the upper bound is 1700 [6]. 2. Fundamental Situation Market Review - In September, the ex - factory price of domestic urea in mainstream areas declined unilaterally. The daily output increased to around 191,000 tons as the operating rate of urea enterprises rose. Exports had little impact, and demand was weak. The futures main contract fluctuated widely and ended the month with a decline. The factory - warehouse basis was - 100 yuan/ton [10][11][28]. Supply Analysis - New Additions Mostly in the Second Half of the Year - From 1 - September 2025, 360 tons of new urea production capacity was put into operation. The total annual new capacity in 2025 is expected to reach about 4 million tons, with the total capacity reaching around 8.26 million tons by the end of the year. In October, coal prices are expected to be weak, and urea production profits will continue to narrow. The daily output is expected to remain around 200,000 tons, and enterprise inventories are likely to accumulate [32][34][43]. Export Impact Gradually Fading - India still has a large urea gap, but its import demand may decrease slightly in 2025. Urea exports are expected to accelerate in August and may increase significantly in October [51][55][59]. Demand Expected to Be Released in October, and Macro - level Stimulus Policies Expected - The macro - economic recovery is slow. In October, industrial demand for urea, such as from the melamine industry, is unlikely to be strong. Agricultural demand for urea will gradually end after the autumn fertilizer season, and the support for urea prices from demand will weaken after mid - October [61][75][82]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation Comprehensive Analysis - In October, the supply of urea will continue to increase, and demand will be weak. Agricultural demand is softening, and exports are approaching the deadline, so urea remains under pressure [88]. Strategy Recommendation - **Unilateral trading**: Range - bound before the middle of the month, and short - selling after the middle of the month without new policies. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see for inter - period arbitrage. - **Options**: The lower bound is 1550, and the upper bound is 1700 [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is expected to be volatile today. The international urea price is strong, but the export policy has not been significantly liberalized, and the domestic market still has an obvious oversupply situation [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The recent urea futures market has been volatile. The current daily production and operating rate have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level, and the overall inventory is at a high level. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand has rebounded, the operating rate of melamine is neutral, and agricultural demand has entered the off - season. The domestic urea market still has an obvious oversupply situation, the export profit is still high, and the export policy has not been significantly liberalized. The spot price of the delivery product is 1730 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [5]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 60, and the premium/discount ratio is 3.5%, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 137.1 million tons (-4.0), which is bearish [5]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the main UR contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [5]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the main UR contract has increased, which is bullish [5]. - **Likely Factors**: The international price is strong, which is a bullish factor; the high operating rate and daily production, as well as the weak domestic demand, are bearish factors. The main logic lies in the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policy [6]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **Spot**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1730 (-30), the Shandong spot price is 1730 (-30), the Henan spot price is 1740 (0), and the FOB China price is 3271 [7]. - **Futures**: The price of the 01 contract is 1670 (-11), the basis is 60 (-19), the price of the UR05 contract is 1725 (-9), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1745 (-10) [7]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt is 8188 (-80), the comprehensive UR inventory is 137.1 million tons, the UR manufacturer inventory is 88.8 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 48.3 million tons [7]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year by year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The production, net import volume, apparent consumption, and actual consumption have also shown certain trends of change. For example, in 2024, the production capacity is 4418.5, the production is 3425, the net import volume is 360, the apparent consumption is 3785, and the actual consumption is 3778.25 [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is currently facing a situation of high supply and weak domestic demand, with the overall supply-demand imbalance still significant. Although the international urea price is strong and the export profit is high, the export policy has not been significantly liberalized. It is expected that the UR contract will show a volatile trend today [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The recent urea futures market has been volatile. The current daily production and operating rate have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level, and the overall inventory is at a high position. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand has increased, the operating rate of melamine is at a medium level, and agricultural demand has entered the off - season. The overall supply of domestic urea exceeds demand significantly, the export profit is still high, and the export policy has not been significantly liberalized. The spot price of the delivery product is 1760 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 74, and the premium/discount ratio is 4.2%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.371 million tons (-40,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract has decreased, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The futures price of the urea main contract is volatile. The international urea price is strong, the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations, and the overall domestic supply exceeds demand significantly. It is expected that the UR will show a volatile trend today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factor is the strong international price; bearish factors are the high operating rate and daily production, and the weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policy [5]. Spot and Futures Market Quotes | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Inventory Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1760 | 0 | 01 Contract | 1686 | 3 | Warehouse Receipt | 8279 | -334 | | Shandong Spot | 1760 | 0 | Basis | 74 | -3 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 137.1 | -4.0 | | Henan Spot | 1780 | 0 | UR01 | 1686 | 3 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 88.8 | - | | FOB China | 3273 | - | UR05 | 1737 | 6 | UR Port Inventory | 48.3 | - | | - | - | - | UR09 | 1757 | 7 | - | - | - | [6] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 (18.6%) | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 (17.9%) | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 (19.3%) | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 (10.7%) | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 (10.2%) | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 (8.4%) | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 (9.5%) | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The short - term price of urea is likely to decline but the downside space is limited, with support at the 1700 price level. The reasons include high domestic production and operation rates, weak domestic demand, weak cost support, and the need to focus on the impact of export policies on prices [3]. - In the futures market, urea is in a pattern with upper - limit pressure and lower - limit support, and is expected to fluctuate mainly [9]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Urea Trend Review - In August 2025, the domestic urea market was under pressure. Although export policies boosted market sentiment, they had limited impact on actual demand. The market's acceptance of high - priced goods was low, and prices generally showed a weak trend. The price trend can be divided into three stages: an initial rise followed by a fall, a continuous decline in the middle, and a short - term rebound followed by a weakening in the late stage [14]. Urea Supply New Capacity - From January to August 2025, multiple urea production facilities were put into operation, with a total new production capacity of 225 tons and a production capacity growth rate of 2.98%. It is estimated that the total new production capacity in 2025 will reach 494 tons, with a production capacity growth rate of 6.55% [27]. Production and Operation - In August 2025, the estimated domestic urea production was 5.93 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.10%. Although the daily production and operation rate decreased month - on - month due to increased maintenance plans, the overall supply remained high [31]. Urea Export - In July 2025, domestic urea exports increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, with a total export volume of 567,200 tons. In August, a third batch of export quotas was issued, with an estimated quantity of 700,000 - 1,000,000 tons. After adding this batch, the total export quota for the year exceeded 4 million tons [50]. - India conducted multiple urea import tenders in 2025, which had an impact on the international urea market [47][48]. Urea Demand Overall Demand - In August 2025, the estimated domestic urea consumption was 4.75 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.65%. It was the traditional off - season for agricultural demand, and both enterprise and port inventories increased, leading to a significant decrease in consumption [74]. Substitute Demand - There is a substitution relationship between urea and other fertilizers. Currently, urea has no obvious price advantage compared with ammonium sulfate and ammonium chloride, but it has a cost - performance advantage compared with phosphate and potash fertilizers [76]. Agricultural Demand - August is the traditional off - season for domestic agricultural demand. In September, autumn fertilization will gradually start, which is expected to bring a phased boost to the market [123]. Compound Fertilizer Demand - In August, compound fertilizer factories gradually started autumn fertilizer production, with a significant month - on - month increase in the operation rate. However, the shipment rhythm of autumn fertilizer preparation was slow, and enterprise inventories continued to accumulate [124]. Urea - Formaldehyde Resin Demand - In August 2025, the formaldehyde operation rate increased slightly week - on - week. Although domestic real - estate data was not good, plywood exports increased slightly year - on - year and month - on - month, which may support the demand for urea - formaldehyde resin [134]. Melamine Demand - In July 2025, the estimated melamine production was 135,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 8.48%. The market was weak in the first half of the month and improved slightly in the second half, but the supply - demand fundamentals remained weak [140]. Urea Summer Storage - The new "National Fertilizer Commercial Reserve Management Measures" for the 2024 - 2026 period has reduced the proportion of urea reserves, changed the requirements for targets, extended the storage period, adjusted the assessment indicators, and extended the delivery time [152][153][154]. Urea Inventory - In August 2025, urea enterprise inventories showed an overall accumulation trend, reaching 1.0858 million tons at the end of the month, an increase of 168,500 tons compared with the beginning of the month. Port inventories reached a high level in the same period of previous years due to the opening of export policies [166]. Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Supply forecast: The August production is adjusted according to actual production, and the September production forecast is adjusted according to maintenance plans. The daily production in September is expected to increase month - on - month. - Export forecast: The total export quota for the year exceeds 4 million tons, and this amount is evenly distributed to the second - half months. - In September, domestic agricultural demand will enter the autumn fertilizer - preparation stage, which is expected to bring a phased boost to the market [169].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall supply exceeding demand in China, with high daily production and inventory levels, while international prices are strong. The export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. It is expected that the urea market will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures price has fluctuated and declined recently. The market was affected by rumors of the liberalization of urea exports, leading to a rise in futures prices, but then market sentiment subsided. Currently, daily production and the operating rate remain at relatively high levels, and inventory is generally high. On the demand side, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand are moderate, and agricultural demand is limited. Overall, supply exceeds demand significantly in the domestic urea market, export profits are still strong, and the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1840 (+10), and the fundamentals are generally neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 94, with a premium - discount ratio of 5.1%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.437 million tons (-20,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract has turned bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is expected to fluctuate. International urea prices are strong, the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations, and the domestic supply still significantly exceeds demand. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: International urea prices are strong [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: High operating rates and daily production, and weak domestic demand [5]. - **Main Logic**: The marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **Spot**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1840 (+10), the Shandong spot price is 1840 (+10), the Henan spot price is 1850 (unchanged), and the FOB China price is 3102 [6]. - **Futures**: The price of the UR01 contract is 1746 (-7), the UR05 contract is 1791 (+2), and the UR09 contract is 1679 (-23). The basis of the UR01 contract is 94 [6]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt is 6473 (unchanged), the comprehensive UR inventory is 1.437 million tons (-20,000 tons), the UR manufacturer inventory is 896,000 tons, and the UR port inventory is 541,000 tons [6]. Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, urea production capacity, output, net imports, apparent consumption, and actual consumption generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 49.06 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is in a low - valuation and weak - driving pattern. The downward movement of the futures price is supported by cost, while the upward space is restricted by supply and weakening demand. Price fluctuations are continuously narrowing, and the implied volatility of options has returned to historical lows. Although the current reality is still weak, the enterprise profit is at a low level, so the downward space is limited. If there is further positive news, the price is expected to break out of the trading range. Therefore, it is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: Price fluctuations gradually narrowed, and the price closed slightly lower throughout the week. The actual agricultural demand weakened, the compound fertilizer start - up rate increased, and the export volume was moderate. The overall performance was average, the basis of the futures market was weak, and the inter - month spread was at a low level in the same period. It is currently in a low - valuation and weak - driving pattern, and the further downward space is expected to be limited, but there is a lack of effective positive factors for an upward movement [12]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: The domestic enterprise start - up rate was 83.22%, a week - on - week increase of 1.24%, and it was at a medium - to - high level year - on - year. The daily output was 19.12 tons, and it is expected to rise again later [12]. - **Demand**: The compound fertilizer start - up rate was 43.48%, a week - on - week increase of 1.98%. Due to the production of autumn fertilizers, the start - up rate is expected to further increase in the short term. The enterprise profit was at a low level, and the fixed - bed production was in the red. The agricultural demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the export is progressing moderately, showing a rather dull performance [12]. - **Valuation**: The export profit was at a high level, and the domestic market was relatively undervalued. The price ratio with related varieties was at a medium - to - low level, indicating that the valuation of urea was low [12]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory was 46.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.9 tons. The enterprise inventory was 95.74 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.98 tons, and the inventory was at a high level year - on - year due to weakening demand [12]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts, including the seasonal chart of the 01 contract basis, the spot market price chart of Shandong urea, the 1 - 5 spread chart of urea, the term structure chart of urea, the position and trading volume charts of the 01 contract and the weighted position and trading volume charts of urea, to show the price, spread, position, and trading volume changes in the futures and spot markets [20][21][23][27]. 3.3. Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: The enterprise profit was at a low level, and the cost support will gradually strengthen. The report shows the profit charts of fixed - bed, water - coal slurry, and gas - head production [30]. - **Inventory** - The enterprise inventory was 95.74 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.98 tons, and the port inventory was 46.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.9 tons [12]. - The report also includes inventory change projection charts, such as the end - of - month enterprise inventory projection chart and the port inventory and export volume chart [37][38]. 3.4. Supply Side - **Urea Production Capacity**: It shows the urea production capacity chart and the planned production - start device chart. Multiple enterprises have planned new production capacity from 2024 to 2025 [41][43]. - **Urea Start - up Rate**: The start - up rate has fluctuated and declined. The report lists the start - up rate chart, the planned maintenance and long - shut - down device information of enterprises, and also includes the main production area enterprise advance order and monthly output projection charts [45][46][48][50]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Consumption Projection**: It shows the monthly consumption chart and the downstream demand proportion chart [53][54]. - **Compound Fertilizer**: The start - up rate was 43.48%, a week - on - week increase of 1.98%. The report includes the compound fertilizer start - up rate, production profit, and price ratio charts with urea [56][57]. - **Melamine**: It shows the melamine start - up rate, profit, and export volume charts [61][64]. - **Terminal Demand**: It includes the export volume chart of plywood and similar multi - layer boards, the housing start - up and completion chart, and the 30 - large - city commercial housing transaction area chart [69][70][74]. - **Export**: The export profit was relatively high. The report shows the urea export volume, profit, export region, and sea - freight charts, as well as the export volume charts of ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride, and other fertilizers [80][81][87][90]. 3.6. Options - Related - The report presents the position, trading volume, position PCR, trading volume PCR, and volatility charts of urea options [94][95][97][99][105]. 3.7. Industrial Structure Diagram - It includes the urea industrial chain chart, the research framework analysis mind - map chart, and the urea industrial chain characteristic chart. It also provides a seasonal overview of domestic and international crop fertilizer demand [107][108][111][113][116].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is expected to be volatile today. The domestic supply of urea is still in significant oversupply, with high daily production and开工 rates, and inventory has increased again. Industrial and agricultural demand is weak, but international urea prices are strong, and export policies have not been more liberal than expected [4]. - The main logic for market trends is the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policies [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has been volatile recently, returning to fundamentals after the "anti - involution" sentiment cooled. Domestic supply has high daily production and开工 rates, and inventory has increased. Industrial demand (such as for compound fertilizers and melamine) and agricultural demand are both expected to decline. The overall domestic supply of urea exceeds demand, while export profits are strengthening, and export policies have not been more liberal than expected. The spot price of the delivery product is 1810 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 84, with a premium - discount ratio of 4.6%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 145.9 million tons (-1.8), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main contract of urea is volatile. International urea prices are strong, export policies have not been more liberal than expected, and the domestic supply is still in significant oversupply. It is expected that UR will be volatile today [4]. - **Leverage and Risks**: Bullish factors include strong international prices; bearish factors include high开工 and daily production, and weak domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market and Inventory Data - **Spot Market**: The price of the spot delivery product is 1810 (unchanged), Shandong spot is 1820 (+10), Henan spot is 1810 (unchanged), and FOB China is 2746 [6]. - **Futures Market**: The 01 contract price is 1726 (-21), the UR05 contract price is 1771 (-17), and the UR09 contract price is 1715 (-11). The basis is 84 (+21) [6]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt is 3823 (unchanged), UR comprehensive inventory is 145.9 million tons, UR manufacturer inventory is 101.9 million tons, and UR port inventory is 44.0 million tons [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 - 2024, the urea industry has shown continuous growth in production capacity, production, and consumption. The production capacity growth rates from 2019 - 2024 are 8.9%, 15.5%, 11.4%, 8.4%, 14.1%, and 13.5% respectively. The consumption growth rates from 2019 - 2024 are 12.8%, 17.9%, 2.6%, 0.3%, 5.9%, and 8.4% respectively. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view was that supply and demand were balanced, and urea mainly fluctuated. This week's view is that demand has improved month - on - month, and urea is operating strongly. Although the export port inspection policy has been relaxed, it has limited impact on the domestic spot. The Indian tender price far exceeds market expectations, and the domestic and foreign price difference is huge. It is expected that the market will be strong in the short term, but due to weak domestic demand, limited export increment, and export flow restrictions, it will mainly operate with short - term fluctuations. The trading strategy is to be neutral on the single - side, wait - and - see on the arbitrage, and sell call options on the over - the - counter [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Overview**: Some urea production plants are under maintenance, with the daily output dropping below 200,000 tons but still at the highest level in the same period. The new Indian tender price has been announced, which boosts market sentiment. The production enthusiasm of compound fertilizer in central and northern China is low, and the overall demand is declining. Although the export policy has been relaxed, the domestic demand is weak, and the export increment is limited. The trading strategy is to be neutral on the single - side, wait - and - see on the arbitrage, and sell call options on the over - the - counter [5] - **Core Data Changes**: In the 28th week of 2025 (July 10 - 16), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea was 86.95%, up 0.36% month - on - month; that of gas - based urea was 76.37%, down 4.61% month - on - month. In Shandong, the urea capacity utilization rate was 75.70%, up 3.34% month - on - month. In the 29th week of 2025 (July 11 - 17), the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 64.24%, an increase of 1.68 percentage points from last week; the domestic compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 32.55%, up 2.72 percentage points month - on - month. As of July 18, the urea demand of compound fertilizer sample production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 800 tons, up 100 tons month - on - month. As of July 16, the average pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.06 days, up 0.12 days month - on - month. On July 16, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 89.55 tons, a decrease of 7.22 tons from last week. The port sample inventory was 54.1 tons, an increase of 5.2 tons month - on - month. In terms of profit, the fixed - bed production profit was 220 yuan/ton, the coal - water slurry production profit was 360 yuan/ton, and the entrained - flow bed production profit was 580 yuan/ton. The basis was 10 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was 20 yuan/ton [6] 2. Weekly Data Tracking - **Mainstream Manufacturers' Factory Prices**: Not provided - **Basis**: Not provided - **Regional Spread**: Not provided - **Warehouse Receipts and Spreads**: Not provided - **Urea - Methanol Futures Spread**: Not provided - **Raw Coal Price**: Not provided - **Production Profit**: Not provided - **Urea/Ammonia, Synthetic Ammonia Spread**: Not provided - **Urea Operating Rate**: Not provided - **Urea Output**: Not provided - **Urea Pre - sales**: Not provided - **Urea Inventory**: Not provided - **Other Inventory Supply and Demand**: Not provided - **Urea and Other Nitrogen Fertilizer Ratios**: Not provided - **Compound Fertilizer**: Not provided - **Melamine**: Not provided - **Urea Export**: Not provided - **Furniture**: Not provided

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall supply exceeding demand, but the international urea price is strong, and agricultural demand has improved marginally. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. - The main logic is the marginal changes in international supply and domestic demand, with the main risk point being changes in export policies [5]. Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The recent urea futures market has been fluctuating. International urea prices are strong due to supply shortages caused by international situation fluctuations, which has had a partial impact on the domestic market. The supply side shows high开工 rates and daily production, and inventory has seen minor fluctuations. On the demand side, the开工 rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand have been declining, and agricultural demand expectations have turned weak again. The overall supply of urea significantly exceeds demand, and the export policy remains unopened. The delivery - grade spot price is 1880 (unchanged), and the fundamentals are generally bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 159, with a premium - discount ratio of 8.5%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.12 million tons (+140,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is fluctuating. Although the international urea price is strong and agricultural demand has improved, the overall supply still significantly exceeds demand. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: International prices are strong, and domestic agricultural demand has improved marginally [5]. - **Unfavorable Factors**: The开工 rate and daily production are at a high level, and inventory is higher year - on - year [5]. Spot and Futures Market Data | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | Spot delivery - grade price is 1880 (unchanged), Shandong spot price is 1880 (unchanged), Henan spot price is 1880 (unchanged), FOB China price is 2579 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | The price of the 09 contract is 1721 (+9), the basis is 159 (-9), the price of UR01 is 1682 (unchanged), the price of UR05 is 1694 (-2) [6]. | | **Inventory** | Warehouse receipts are 500 (unchanged), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.12 million tons, UR factory inventory is 917,000 tons, UR port inventory is 203,000 tons [6]. | Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | End - of - Period Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10]