Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has significantly increased fiscal spending in key areas related to people's livelihoods, with a focus on education, healthcare, and social security, reflecting a policy direction of "investing in people" [1][2][4]. Fiscal Spending Overview - From January to July, the national general public budget expenditure reached 16,073.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [2]. - Central government expenditure was 2,332.7 billion yuan, up 8.8%, while local government expenditure was 13,741.0 billion yuan, increasing by 2.5% [2]. - Social security and employment spending grew by 9.8%, education spending by 5.7%, and healthcare spending by 5.3% during the same period [2]. Regional Spending Insights - In Beijing, education spending was 74.0 billion yuan, a growth of 7.9%, aimed at accommodating changes in school-age population and supporting various educational initiatives [3]. - In Yunnan Province, social security and employment spending reached 79.56 billion yuan, while education spending was 69.63 billion yuan, accounting for 20.4% and 17.9% of local budget expenditure, respectively [3]. Policy Initiatives - Recent policies include the implementation of a childcare subsidy system with an initial budget of approximately 90 billion yuan, and an increase of about 20 billion yuan in spending for free preschool education this fall [4]. - The Ministry of Civil Affairs and the Ministry of Finance have jointly issued guidelines for providing subsidies to elderly individuals with moderate to severe disabilities [4]. Local Government Actions - Local governments are tailoring their policies to enhance welfare, such as Fujian Province's measures to implement the national childcare subsidy system and improve healthcare facilities [5]. - In Guangxi, measures to reduce unemployment insurance fees and provide vocational training subsidies are being implemented to support employment stability [5]. Future Outlook - Experts anticipate that future fiscal spending will increasingly focus on "investing in people," with enhanced support for social welfare sectors [6]. - The central government aims to optimize fiscal spending structures to strengthen financial support for education, healthcare, and housing, thereby improving overall public welfare [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fiscal data indicates a strong commitment from the central and local governments to invest in people's livelihoods, with a focus on enhancing social welfare and public services [1][2][3] Fiscal Expenditure Overview - From January to July, the national general public budget expenditure reached 16,073.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [1] - Central government expenditure was 2,332.7 billion yuan, up 8.8%, while local government expenditure was 13,741.0 billion yuan, increasing by 2.5% [1] - Expenditure in key areas such as social security and employment grew by 9.8%, education by 5.7%, and health by 5.3% [1][2] Regional Spending Insights - In Beijing, education expenditure was 74.0 billion yuan, growing by 7.9%, driven by policies supporting early childhood education and school expansion [2] - In Yunnan, social security and employment spending reached 79.56 billion yuan, while education spending was 69.63 billion yuan, accounting for 20.4% and 17.9% of local budget expenditures, respectively [2] Policy Initiatives - Recent policies include a child-rearing subsidy program with an initial budget of approximately 90 billion yuan, and an increase of about 20 billion yuan for free preschool education this fall [2][3] - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Civil Affairs are collaborating to implement subsidies for elderly care services for those with moderate to severe disabilities [2] Future Outlook - Experts anticipate that future fiscal spending will increasingly focus on "investing in people," with enhanced support for social welfare and public services [3][4] - The central government's higher funding share is expected to alleviate local fiscal pressures, allowing for more robust investment in education, healthcare, and housing [3][4]

Group 1 - The core idea of the articles emphasizes the shift from "investment in goods" to "investment in people" as a new macroeconomic policy focus in response to changing economic conditions [2][3][4] - The Chinese government aims to stimulate consumption and effective investment, with a particular emphasis on enhancing service consumption and promoting private investment [2][3] - "Investment in people" is increasingly recognized as a key macroeconomic policy, which not only addresses social equity but also shapes the future competitiveness of the nation [4][5] Group 2 - The concept of "investment in people" includes allocating resources to education, healthcare, vocational training, and social security, thereby enhancing human capital and overall quality of life [4][5] - Recent government initiatives reflect this shift, such as increasing basic pension levels, implementing free preschool education, and introducing new childcare subsidy programs [5][6] - The transformation in fiscal policy from project-based spending to human capital investment signifies a broader change in macroeconomic philosophy [5][6]

赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠（赵伟系申万宏源证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事） 摘要 点评：债务资金支持开始减弱，财政支出增速回落，而民生、服务业相关支出提速 广义财政收入延续改善、支出增速下滑，前7月预算完成度明显高于2024年同期。2025年7月，广义财政收入同比3.6%，较6 月同比提升0.8个百分点；广义财政支出同比12.1%，较6月同比下降5.5个百分点。从预算完成度看，前7月广义财政收入预 算完成56.3%，持平过去五年平均水平；广义财政支出预算完成51%，略低于过去五年平均51.7%。 广义财政支出降速，或部分缘于政府债务融资大规模支持阶段已过。2025年7月，广义财政收支差达-5.6万亿元，规模较6月 仅新增0.4万亿元，或指向政府债务资金支持放缓。8月中旬，国家发改委披露2025年超长期特别国债支持设备更新的1880亿 元投资补助资金已下达完毕。政府债务资金对广义财政支出的支持力度或开始减弱。 广义财政支出增速虽有回落，但一般财政中民生及服务业相关支出明显提速。一般支出分项中，民生及服务业相关支出提速 明显，如卫生健康，社保就业支出增速分别为14.2%、13.1%，较6月提升8.6、4.9 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation in China for the first seven months of 2025, highlighting a slight increase in revenue but a notable decrease in expenditure growth, particularly in government debt support, while spending on people's livelihoods and service sectors is accelerating [2][3][69]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - From January to July 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 135,839 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, while expenditure was 160,737 billion yuan, up 3.4% year-on-year [2][8]. - In July 2025, broad fiscal revenue grew by 3.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to June, while broad fiscal expenditure rose by 12.1%, a decrease of 5.5 percentage points from June [3][9][70]. - The completion rate of the broad fiscal revenue budget for the first seven months was 56.3%, in line with the average of the past five years, while the expenditure completion rate was 51%, slightly below the average of 51.7% [3][9][70]. Group 2: Changes in Fiscal Support and Spending - The slowdown in broad fiscal expenditure growth may be partly due to the end of large-scale government debt financing support, with a fiscal revenue deficit of 5.6 trillion yuan in July, only increasing by 0.4 trillion yuan from June [3][14][70]. - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that the 1,880 billion yuan investment subsidy for equipment updates supported by long-term special bonds had been fully allocated, indicating a reduction in government debt support for fiscal expenditure [3][14][70]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Spending Trends - Despite the overall decline in broad fiscal expenditure growth, spending related to people's livelihoods and service sectors has accelerated, with health and social security employment expenditures growing by 14.2% and 13.1% respectively, significantly higher than in June [4][20][71]. - Expenditures in cultural tourism, media, and education also saw increases, with growth rates of 7% and 4.6%, respectively, both improving compared to June [4][20][71]. - The structure of fiscal expenditure is expected to become more differentiated, particularly with the implementation of policies such as childcare subsidies and dual interest subsidies [4][26][71].

Core Viewpoint - The central government has issued its fifth positive signal this year regarding stabilizing the real estate market, emphasizing the need for strong measures to consolidate the market's recovery and release improvement demand through urban renewal and the renovation of dilapidated housing [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Activation - The recent meeting highlighted the importance of transforming urban villages and dilapidated housing as a key breakthrough to release housing demand, addressing current market pain points such as weak first-time buyer demand and suppressed improvement demand [2] - The strategy includes a multi-faceted approach to stimulate improvement demand, directly targeting the challenges faced in the current market [2] Group 2: Investment Focus - A new investment direction termed "investing in people" was introduced, aiming to allocate more funds and resources towards sectors that serve the population, particularly in education, elderly care, and healthcare [2] - This approach emphasizes the significance of housing within the broader context of improving living conditions and creating a better development environment through various policy measures [2] Group 3: Policy Coordination - Major cities like Shanghai and Beijing are actively revising housing policies to align with national standards and local construction requirements, with Shanghai currently soliciting public opinions on its revised housing design standards [3] - The focus is on ensuring that housing projects meet the "good housing" construction requirements while also addressing urban infrastructure needs [3] Group 4: Inventory Reduction and Quality Improvement - Strategies to reduce inventory include demolishing and rebuilding old areas to create passive housing demand, which can quickly absorb surrounding property inventory [4] - The goal is to enhance housing quality by linking old housing renovations with the "good housing" initiative, shifting the focus from merely having housing to ensuring quality living conditions that meet residents' upgraded demands for safety, comfort, and sustainability [4] Group 5: Policy Relaxation in Major Cities - Recent policy changes in first-tier cities have included easing purchase restrictions, with Beijing allowing unlimited purchases outside the Fifth Ring Road and Guangzhou fully lifting purchase limits [7] - The current landscape shows that Guangzhou has the most relaxed policies, followed by Shenzhen, while Beijing and Shanghai maintain stricter regulations, particularly regarding social security requirements for non-local buyers [7][9]

冯奎（中国区域科学协会副理事长、研究员） 政府部门在促进"投资于人"的实现过程中，建立完善的"投资目标—过程监管—效果评估"全链条机制至 关重要。一方面，要通过可量化的指标让投资成果被公众切实感知，比如基本医疗保险参保率提升幅 度、职业技能培训人次、居民人均可支配收入增长等，用数据直观体现政策成效；另一方面，要在政策 制定阶段搭建多元参与渠道，通过听证会、民意调查、专家论证等方式，充分吸纳企业、劳动者、学术 界等不同群体的意见，开展高质量的政策讨论，让不同诉求得到合理反映。通过透明化流程与科学化机 制凝聚社会共识，让"投资于人"真正惠及更多民众，赢得广泛支持与认可。 近期，无论是国家层面的政策导向，还是各地陆续出台的具体举措，都频繁提及"投资于人"这一关键理 念。8月18日召开的国务院第九次全体会议进一步强调，要适应需求变化更多"投资于人"、服务于民 生。结合当前经济社会发展趋势与政策导向，有理由相信，"投资于人"将成为"十五五"期间宏观政策的 重要内容之一，未来相关配套政策也将围绕"如何让投资于人落到实处"逐步细化展开。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） "投资于人"，本质上是新发展阶段的必然要求，也是发展重 ...

Core Concept - The concept of "investment in people" is increasingly emphasized in national policies and local initiatives, indicating its importance in macroeconomic strategies during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][2] Group 1: Investment in People as a Policy Direction - "Investment in people" represents a shift from material accumulation to human development, focusing on long-term human capital cultivation rather than short-term gains [1] - The approach transitions from general hardware investments to more precise and higher-quality service provisions, aiming for a systematic integration of "investment in people" [1] Group 2: Balancing Investment and Consumption - "Investment in people" provides a viable solution to the long-standing debate between investment and consumption, linking them through human capital development [2] - By enhancing employment capabilities through vocational training and improving social security, consumer confidence can be boosted, leading to a virtuous cycle of investment, employment, income, and consumption [2] Group 3: Addressing Key Issues - There is an urgent need to distinguish between universal issues, such as healthcare and education, and structural issues, like the rights of migrant workers and social security for flexible workers [3] - Solutions for universal issues rely more on development, while structural issues require reform, such as improving social security systems for migrant workers [3] Group 4: Challenges in Implementation - The direction of "investment in people" aligns with national development needs but faces challenges in prioritizing actions and weighing benefits against costs due to limited fiscal resources [4] - Specific details regarding who will invest, how much, and the execution of social security reforms need careful analysis based on actual conditions [4] Group 5: Mechanisms for Implementation - Establishing a comprehensive mechanism for "investment goals, process supervision, and effect evaluation" is crucial for the successful realization of "investment in people" [5] - Quantifiable indicators should be used to make investment outcomes perceptible to the public, while diverse participation channels should be created during policy formulation to gather input from various stakeholders [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation in China for the first seven months of 2025, highlighting a slowdown in fiscal expenditure growth while expenditures related to people's livelihoods and the service industry are accelerating [2][3][69]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - From January to July 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 135,839 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, while expenditure was 160,737 billion yuan, up 3.4% year-on-year [2][8]. - In July 2025, the broad fiscal revenue grew by 3.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to June, while broad fiscal expenditure rose by 12.1%, a decrease of 5.5 percentage points from June [3][9][70]. - The completion rate of the broad fiscal revenue budget for the first seven months was 56.3%, in line with the average level of the past five years, while the expenditure completion rate was 51%, slightly below the average of 51.7% [3][9][70]. Group 2: Changes in Fiscal Support - The slowdown in broad fiscal expenditure growth may be partly due to the end of the large-scale support phase from government debt financing [3][14][70]. - By July 2025, the broad fiscal revenue and expenditure gap reached -5.6 trillion yuan, with only a 0.4 trillion yuan increase from June, indicating a potential reduction in government debt support [3][14][70]. - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that the 1,880 billion yuan investment subsidy for equipment updates supported by ultra-long-term special bonds had been fully allocated, suggesting a decrease in government debt funding for fiscal expenditures [3][14][70]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Expenditure Trends - Despite the overall decline in broad fiscal expenditure growth, expenditures related to people's livelihoods and the service industry have significantly accelerated [4][20][71]. - In July 2025, the growth rates for health and social employment expenditures were 14.2% and 13.1%, respectively, both showing substantial increases from June [4][20][71]. - Expenditures in cultural tourism, media, and education also saw growth rates of 7% and 4.6%, respectively, with increases of 3.8 and 2.2 percentage points from June [4][20][71]. Group 4: Revenue Composition and Trends - The broad fiscal revenue continued to show improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 3.6% in July 2025, driven by a 2.6% increase in general fiscal revenue and an 8.9% increase in government fund revenue [5][27][72]. - The completion rate of the broad fiscal revenue budget in July was 8.5%, higher than 7.8% in 2024 but slightly below the five-year average of 8.9% [5][27][72]. - The decline in land transfer income has contributed to the slowdown in government fund revenue growth, which was 8.9% year-on-year in July, down 11.9 percentage points from June [33][38][72].

Economic Overview - In July, the economy continued to show weak domestic demand and strong external demand, but overall remained stable [2] - Retail sales in July reached 38,780 billion yuan, growing by 3.7% year-on-year, but down 0.14% month-on-month [2][4] - From January to July, total retail sales amounted to 284,238 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [2] Consumption Trends - Despite weak domestic demand, there are still consumption highlights, particularly in the "trade-in" related sectors, where retail sales of home appliances and communication devices grew over 10%, with some categories even reaching 20% [2] - The growth rate of retail sales in July was 3.7%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, with food and beverage income also showing a marginal decline [4][5] - Service consumption performed relatively well, with service retail sales growing by 5.2% year-on-year from January to July, driven by tourism and diverse service offerings [6] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) in July decreased by 0.63% month-on-month, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 1.6% from January to July [2][7] - The decline in investment growth reflects short-term weather disturbances and mid-term factors such as reduced real estate projects and equipment renewal cycles [7] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.2%, down 1.4 percentage points from previous values, indicating a slowdown in construction activities [7] Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 12% in July, and new housing sales area also decreased by 4% [5][8] - The credit financing growth rate for real estate companies fell sharply to -15.8%, the lowest in two years, indicating a significant contraction in the sector [8] - The ongoing contraction in the real estate market suggests that the decline in investment growth may further widen as the market has not yet bottomed out after three years of shrinkage [8]