1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of asphalt are bearish, with supply pressure still high and demand recovery weak. The cost support is expected to weaken in the short - term, and the market is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The price of asphalt 2511 is expected to oscillate between 3405 - 3449 [7][8][9] - Bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support [11] - Bearish factors are insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate was 30.501%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises was 509,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 685,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%. Refineries reduced production this week, and supply pressure may decrease next week [7] - **Demand Side**: The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 28.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the开工 rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the开工 rate of modified asphalt was 15.8893%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.25 percentage points; the开工 rate of road - modified asphalt was 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.83 percentage points; the开工 rate of waterproofing membranes was 33.93%, a month - on - month increase of 0.07 percentage points. Overall, current demand is below the historical average [7] - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 513.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 792.0771 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.94%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short - term [8] - **Basis**: On September 18, the spot price in Shandong was 3,520 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 93 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [9] - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 1.225 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.54%; factory inventory was 642,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.74%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 320,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 68.42%. Social and factory inventories continued to decline, while port inventory continued to increase [9] - **Market**: MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20 [9] - **Main Position**: The net position of the main players was short, and short positions decreased [9] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on yesterday's asphalt market, including futures contract prices, inventory, production, and profit. For example, the price of the 01 - contract decreased by 0.47% compared to the previous value, and the social inventory decreased by 3.54% [16] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - **Basis Trend**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt basis in Shandong and East China from 2020 - 2025 [18][19] - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spread**: Displays the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [21][22] - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: Illustrates the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 - 2025 [24][25] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: Presents the historical trends of crude oil crack spreads for asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 - 2025 [27][28][29] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: Shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 [31][33] 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Regional Market Price Trends - It shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [34][35] 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: Displays the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [36][37] - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: Shows the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 - 2025 [39][40][41] - **Supply Side**: - **Shipment Volume**: Presents the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 - 2025 [42][43] - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: Displays the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 - 2025 [44][45] - **Production**: Shows the historical weekly and monthly production of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [47][48] - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: Illustrates the historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 - 2025 [51][53] - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: Displays the historical local refinery asphalt production from 2019 - 2025 [54][55] - **开工 Rate**: Shows the historical weekly 开工 rate of asphalt from 2021 - 2025 [57][58] - **Maintenance Loss Estimate**: Presents the historical trend of maintenance loss estimates from 2018 - 2025 [59][60] - **Inventory**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: Displays the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 - 2025 [62][64][65] - **Social and Factory Inventory**: Shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 - 2025 [66][67] - **Factory Inventory - Inventory Ratio**: Presents the historical trend of the factory inventory - inventory ratio from 2018 - 2025 [69][70] - **Import and Export Situation**: - **Export and Import Trends**: Displays the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [72][73] - **Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: Shows the historical trend of the Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 - 2025 [75][76][77] - **Demand Side**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: Displays the historical production of petroleum coke from 2019 - 2025 [78][79] - **Apparent Consumption**: Shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [81][82] - **Downstream Demand**: - **Highway Construction and Related Data**: Presents the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 - 2025 [84][85][86] - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: Shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 - 2025 [88][89][91] - **Asphalt 开工 Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt 开工 Rate**: Displays the historical 开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [93][94] - **Asphalt 开工 Rate by Use**: Shows the historical 开工 rates of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [96][97] - **Downstream 开工 Situation**: Presents the historical 开工 rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [99][100][102] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Provides a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including production, import and export volume, and inventory data [104][105]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the PVC industry is bearish [11] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on PVC is bearish, with positive factors including supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits, while negative factors include a rebound in overall supply pressure, high inventory and slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [13] - The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [14] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - The daily view is bearish, with positive factors such as supply restart, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages; negative factors include overall supply pressure rebound, high inventory levels, slow inventory consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [13] - The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [14] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 77.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 327,885 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 134,060 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.11%. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, with a slight increase in scheduled production [7] 3.2.2 Demand - The overall downstream开工率 was 43.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.899 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile开工率 was 38.39%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe开工率 was 33.48%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film开工率 was 70.77%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin开工率 was 74.07%, a month - on - month increase of 0.809 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [7] 3.2.3 Cost - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 420.96 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 5.40% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 670.97 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 6.80% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,439.25 yuan/ton, with the profit decreasing by 3.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may be under pressure [8] 3.2.4 Basis - On September 18, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,820 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 103 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [9] 3.2.5 Inventory - Factory inventory was 315,801 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 251,301 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.77%. Ethylene method factory inventory was 64,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.85%. Social inventory was 533,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.2 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95% [9] 3.2.6 Disk - MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20, which is neutral [9] 3.2.7 Main Position - The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [9] 3.2.8 Expectation - The cost of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is weakening. Supply pressure has increased this week, and maintenance is expected to decrease next week, with an expected increase in scheduled production. Overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,894 - 4,953 [9]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-9-18） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：产地供应缓慢恢复，不过仍有煤矿尚在停产，焦煤供应略紧。近日成材价格小幅上涨，市 场情绪稍有好转，下游部分焦企因库存低位少量补库，主流大矿竞拍部分煤种在前期下跌后本次成交价 出现10-100元/吨不等的涨幅。整体看在下游刚需支撑下，产地多数矿点出货稳定，煤价仍多稳为主； 中性 2、基差：现货市场价1150，基差-83；现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：钢厂库存805.8万吨，港口库存255.5万吨，独立焦企库存829.4万吨，总样本库存1890.7万吨， 较上周减少28.1万吨；偏多 6、预期：市场情绪端有所升温，下游采购补库也有所增加，但受限于利润不佳，企业心态依旧维持谨 慎补库态度，目前 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to move in a range in the short term. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: There are few maintenance periods for soda ash plants, supply remains at a high level; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and terminal demand is average. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a high level in the same period; bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,235 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,334 yuan/ton, and the basis is -99 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot; bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average; bearish [2]. - **Disk**: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward; bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors Summary - **Bullish Factors**: The peak maintenance period within the year is approaching, and production is expected to decline [3]. - **Bearish Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a high level in the same period; the downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has subsided [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased by 0.37% to 1,334 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe increased by 0.82% to 1,235 yuan/ton, and the main basis increased by 13.16% to -99 yuan/ton [6]. 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,235 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - alkali method is -96.30 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production method is -92.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [14]. - **Operating Rate, Production Capacity and Output**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 87.29%. The weekly production of soda ash is 761,100 tons, including 421,700 tons of heavy soda ash, with production at a historical high [17][19]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the new production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with actual production of 1 million tons [20]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 103.23% [23]. - **Downstream Demand**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 160,200 tons, and the operating rate is 76.01% and stable; the price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the daily melting volume in production continues a significant downward trend [26][32]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [35]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply side's production schedule has increased and is near the historical average, while demand recovery is at a low level and cost support has weakened slightly. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8610 - 8880 [6][7]. - For polysilicon, the short - term production schedule on the supply side will decrease, but it is expected to recover in the medium term. The demand side shows continuous recovery, and cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52580 - 54640 [9]. - The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, while the main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon. The main logic is that the supply - demand mismatch due to capacity mismatch is difficult to change [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 90,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 78,000 tons, a 3.70% decrease from the previous week. Demand remains sluggish. Polysilicon inventory is 219,000 tons (low), silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss state, and components are profitable. Organic silicon inventory is 73,200 tons (high), with a production profit of - 82 yuan/ton, and a comprehensive operating rate of 72.71% (unchanged from the previous week and lower than the historical average). Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 70,800 tons (high), with an import loss of 140 yuan/ton, and the recycled aluminum operating rate is 55.5%, a 0.36% increase from the previous week (low) [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 3237 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - Basis: On September 12, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 255 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory is 539,000 tons, a 0.37% increase from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory is 173,950 tons, a 1.84% increase; and the inventory of major ports is 119,000 tons, a 1.71% increase [6]. - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closes above MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [7]. - Expectation: The supply - side production schedule has increased and is near the historical average, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased slightly. Industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8610 - 8880 [7]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 31,200 tons, a 3.31% increase from the previous week. The production schedule for September is predicted to be 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer production was 13.88GW, a 0.72% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was 165,500 tons, a 1.78% decrease. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production schedule for September is 57.53GW, a 2.73% increase from the previous month. In August, battery cell production was 58.27GW, a 0.13% increase from the previous month. Last week, the inventory of external - sales battery cell factories was 4.62GW, a 40.84% decrease. Currently, production is in a loss state. The production schedule for September is 60.04GW, a 3.03% increase. In August, component production was 49.2GW, a 4.45% increase from the previous month, and the expected production for September is 50.3GW, a 2.23% increase. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease, and the European monthly inventory is 28.1GW, a 5.70% decrease. Currently, component production is profitable [9]. - Cost: The average industry cost of N - type polysilicon is 35,620 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 14,430 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On September 12, the price of N - type dense material was 50,050 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 2060 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 219,000 tons, a 3.79% increase from the previous week, and it is at a historical low [9]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closes above MA20 [9]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and the long position has decreased [9]. - Expectation: The short - term production schedule on the supply side will decrease, but it is expected to recover in the medium term. The demand side shows continuous recovery, and cost support remains stable. Polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52580 - 54640 [9]. 2. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of different contracts show various changes, with some rising and some falling. For example, the 01 - contract price of non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon in East China is 9095 yuan/ton, a 0.06% increase from the previous value [15]. - Inventory data shows that most inventories, including social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory, have increased to varying degrees [15]. Polysilicon - The prices of various types of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are mostly stable, with only a few showing slight increases or decreases. For example, the daily price of N - type 182mm silicon wafers (130μm) is 1.28 yuan/piece, unchanged from the previous value [17]. - The production and inventory of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also show different trends. For example, the weekly production of silicon wafers is 12.9GW, a 5.74% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is 26.5GW, a 22.06% decrease [17]. 3. Price and Basis Trends - The price and basis trends of industrial silicon and polysilicon are presented through charts, showing historical price changes and the relationship between spot and futures prices [19][23]. 4. Inventory Trends - Industrial silicon inventory includes交割库及港口库存, sample enterprise inventory, and registered warehouse receipts, all of which show certain trends of change over time [26]. - Polysilicon inventory also shows different trends, with the total inventory showing a certain increase [17]. 5. Production and Capacity Utilization Trends - The production and capacity utilization of industrial silicon in different regions, such as Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan, show different trends over time [28][30]. - The monthly production of industrial silicon by specification also shows different trends [29]. 6. Cost Trends - The cost and profit trends of industrial silicon in sample regions, such as Sichuan 421, Yunnan 421, and Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553, are presented through charts [36]. 7. Supply - Demand Balance Tables - The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon show the relationship between production, import, export, consumption, and balance over different time periods [38][41]. - The monthly supply - demand balance table of polysilicon also shows the relationship between supply, import, export, consumption, and balance [66]. 8. Downstream Trends Organic Silicon - The price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products, such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4, are presented [44][46][50]. Aluminum Alloy - The price, supply, inventory, production, and operating rate trends of aluminum alloy, as well as the demand trends in the automotive and wheel - hub industries, are presented [53][56][57]. Polysilicon - The cost, price, inventory, production, and supply - demand balance trends of polysilicon, as well as the trends of its downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, photovoltaic accessories, and component cost - profit, are presented [63][66][69]

Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoints - **Threaded Steel**: The demand shows no sign of improvement, the inventory is rising from a low level, and traders' purchasing willingness remains weak. The downstream real - estate industry is still in a downward cycle. With a positive basis, the price is below the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with an increase in short positions. Considering the weak real - estate market, cooling future demand, and domestic capacity - reduction plans, a high - level oscillation approach should be adopted [2]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decrease, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may take effect. With a positive basis, the price is above the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with a decrease in short positions. Given the weakening market supply and demand, blocked exports, and domestic capacity - reduction plans, a high - level oscillation approach should be adopted [7]. 2. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Other Summaries 3.1 Threaded Steel - **Fundamentals**: Negative due to poor demand, rising inventory, and a weak downstream real - estate industry [2]. - **Basis**: Positive with a basis of 93 and a spot price of 3220 [2]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. The inventory in 35 major cities is 487.23 million tons, increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year [2]. - **Disk**: Negative as the price is below the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is downward [2]. - **Main Position**: Negative with a net short position and an increase in short positions [2]. - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Positive factors include low production, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations; negative factors are the continuous downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry and weak terminal demand [4]. 3.2 Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Neutral as both supply and demand have weakened, inventory is decreasing, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may take effect [7]. - **Basis**: Positive with a basis of 36 and a spot price of 3400 [7]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. The inventory in 33 major cities is 292.44 million tons, decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year [7]. - **Disk**: Neutral as the price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is downward [7]. - **Main Position**: Negative with a net short position and a decrease in short positions [7]. - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Positive factors include decent demand, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations; negative factors are the seasonal off - peak of downstream demand and pessimistic expectations [8][9].

另存为PDF 生猪日报 | 2025-09-12 【期价震荡调整】 1、9月11日，生猪注册仓单428手； 2、短期现货继续下跌空间有限，关注接下来生猪继续降重幅度； 3、生猪主力合约（LH2511）今日增仓234手，持仓约7.6万手，今日最高价 13370元/吨，最低价13285元/吨，收盘于13320元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年三四季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，下半年消费比 上半年好； 2、 从历史情况来看，肥标差或震荡走强； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端降重缓慢且有难度，供应压力尚未完全释 放；②后续出栏量有望持续增加；③三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支 撑有限；多头：①养殖端已有所降重利好后市；②天气转凉后消费有望逐渐好 转；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限。 【策略建议】 1、观点：震荡调整； 2、核心逻辑： 【市场动态】 1） 从母猪、仔猪数据看，到12月生猪出栏量或逐月增加（不考虑养殖端提前 或延后出栏），供应充裕下猪价难有明显上涨； 2）150Kg与标猪价差企稳反弹，从季节性看该价差有望继 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Recently, there have been few maintenance activities at soda ash plants, supply remains at a high level; the daily melting volume of float glass downstream is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has declined, and terminal demand has weakened. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high, indicating a bearish situation [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,287 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 87 yuan. The futures price is at a premium to the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% compared with the previous week. The inventory is running above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][37]. - **Market trend**: The price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, indicating a bearish situation [2]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Given the supply - strong and demand - weak fundamentals of soda ash, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: The peak maintenance period of the year is approaching, and production is expected to decline [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - start - up plans this year. The industry's production is at a historical high in the same period; the downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has subsided [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy Soda Ash: Low - end Price in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous value | 1,281 yuan/ton | 1,190 yuan/ton | - 91 yuan | | Current value | 1,287 yuan/ton | 1,200 yuan/ton | - 87 yuan | | Change rate | 0.47% | 0.84% | - 4.40% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [12]. 3.5 Fundamentals - Supply - **Production profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in North China is - 97.20 yuan/ton, and that of the co - production process in East China is - 86 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - **Operating rate and production capacity output**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 75.92%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly production of soda ash is 751,700 tons, including 411,200 tons of heavy soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [18][20]. - **Changes in production capacity**: In 2023, the newly - added production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned newly - added production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production - start - up of 1 million tons [22]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Demand - **Production - sales ratio**: The weekly production - sales ratio of soda ash is 97.80% [25]. - **Downstream demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 160,200 tons, and the operating rate of 75.92% is stable; the price of photovoltaic glass has continued to decline. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume has continued a significant downward trend [28][34]. 3.7 Fundamentals - Inventory The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [37]. 3.8 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Likely Positive Factors**: Supply restart, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [12] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Overall supply pressure rebound, high and slowly consumed inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12] - **Main Logic**: Strong overall supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery [13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Likely Positive Factors**: Supply restart, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [12] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Overall supply pressure rebound, high and slowly consumed inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12] - **Main Logic**: Strong overall supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery [13] - **Main Risk Points**: Implementation degree of domestic demand policies, export trends, crude oil trends, and cost - support trends of caustic soda and calcium carbide method [14] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - side - In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 77.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 327,885 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 134,060 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.11%. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with a small increase in scheduled production [7] 3.2.2 Demand - side - The overall downstream start - up rate was 43.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.899 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile start - up rate was 38.39%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe start - up rate was 33.48%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film start - up rate was 70.77%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin start - up rate was 74.07%, a month - on - month increase of 0.809 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [7] 3.2.3 Cost - side - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 420.96 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 5.40%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 670.97 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 6.80%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,577.05 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in profit of 2.00%, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may be under pressure [8] 3.2.4 Basis - On September 10, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,710 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 147 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is bearish [9] 3.2.5 Inventory - Factory inventory was 315,801 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 251,301 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.77%. Ethylene method factory inventory was 64,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.85%. Social inventory was 533,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.25 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.96%. It is bearish [9] 3.2.6 Disk - MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20. It is bearish [9] 3.2.7 Main Position - The net position of the main position is short, and short positions increased. It is bearish [9] 3.2.8 Expectation - The cost of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is weakening. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with an increase in scheduled production. Overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,827 - 4,887 [9]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-9-11） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤 利 多：1.铁水产量上涨 2.供应难有增量 焦煤： 1、基本面：产地煤矿正常生产，部分偶发事故煤矿有所停产。焦炭落实第一轮降价后下游焦企利润压 缩，对原料煤多按需采购，贸易环节观望居多，煤矿销售一般，考虑终端需求欠佳，市场看降情绪仍存， 部分煤种价格有继续回落预期；偏空 2、基差：现货市场价1130，基差13；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存805.8万吨，港口库存255.5万吨，独立焦企库存829.4万吨，总样本库存1890.7万吨， 较上周减少28.1万吨；偏多 6、预期：下游部分焦企产能利用率相对持稳，但多数焦钢企业补库接近尾声，市场需求渐弱，叠加近 期钢材价格偏弱，市场情绪趋于谨慎，焦 ...