1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum prices are expected to have a certain premium squeezed out in August and September, but the depth of the correction is not significant. The key lies in the limited height of the current inventory accumulation. The possibility of a lackluster peak season in late August and September depends on whether the pre - placement of previous export demand has led to a lack of quality in traditional second - half export orders [3]. - Alumina prices continue to decline as the "anti - involution" premium is squeezed out and inventory accumulates. Although there are uncertainties on the supply side, the supply - side relaxation in the spot market may put pressure on the price [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Aluminum - **Price Trend**: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract has shown a mild downward trend after failing to break through near the 21,000 mark. The premium of traditional non - ferrous metals has been squeezed out, but the decline is relatively mild [3]. - **Micro - fundamentals**: As of July 31, the SMM East China spot has turned to a discount, with a discount of 20 yuan/ton on Friday. The aluminum ingot social inventory has continued to accumulate by 3.1 tons to 52.5 tons. The weekly output of aluminum plate, strip, and foil has rebounded, but the cumulative output since the beginning of the year has still decreased by 0.73%. The output and sample production schedule of aluminum profiles have continued to weaken. The processing fee of aluminum rods has increased by 110 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years [3]. 3.2 Alumina - **Price Trend**: The price center has continued to decline as the "anti - involution" premium is squeezed out and inventory accumulates. Although the spot price showed a turning point this week, considering the possible further relaxation of spot supply in mid - August, the futures price may still face pressure [6]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of July 31, the national alumina inventory was 324.3 tons, an increase of 3.6 tons from the previous week. The in - plant inventory decreased by 2.3 tons, the electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina inventory increased by 4.6 tons, the port inventory remained unchanged, and the yard/platform/in - transit inventory increased by 1.3 tons [51]. 3.3 Transaction - related - **Term Spread**: This week, the A00 spot premium has weakened, while the alumina spot premium has strengthened. The Shanghai Aluminum near - month spread has widened [11][12]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The positions and trading volumes of both the Shanghai Aluminum and alumina main contracts have declined [14]. - **Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: The position - to - inventory ratio of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract has declined, and that of alumina has continued to fall and is at a historically low level [19]. 3.4 Inventory - related - **Bauxite**: As of August 1, the port inventory of imported bauxite has decreased by 1.44 million tons week - on - week. As of June, the bauxite inventory of 43 sample enterprises has continued to decline. The port shipping volume of Guinea and Australia has decreased, while the floating inventory has increased. The outbound volume of Guinea has increased, and the inbound volume has slightly decreased [24][29][30]. - **Alumina**: The total national inventory has continued to accumulate significantly. As of July 31, the inventory was 324.3 tons, an increase of 3.6 tons from the previous week [51]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of July 31, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has increased by 3.1 tons to 52.5 tons [52]. - **Aluminum Rod**: The spot and in - plant inventories have slightly decreased, and the outbound volume has increased [58]. - **Aluminum Profiles and Plate - Strip - Foil**: As of June, the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles has slightly decreased, while the raw - material inventory ratio has slightly increased. The finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum plate, strip, and foil has significantly increased, and the raw - material inventory has greatly increased [60]. 3.5 Production - related - **Bauxite**: As of July, the domestic bauxite production under the SMM caliber has slightly increased. The production in Shanxi has remained stable under the Steel Union caliber in June and slightly decreased under the SMM caliber in July. The production in Henan has increased slightly under the Steel Union caliber in June and decreased by 3.2 tons under the SMM caliber in July. The production in Guangxi has decreased significantly under the Steel Union caliber in June and increased by 8.94 tons under the SMM caliber in July [65][69]. - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate has remained stable. As of August 1, the total operating capacity of national alumina was 94.6 million tons, with a weekly increase of 100,000 tons. The domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production this week was 1.847 million tons, an increase of 16,000 tons from the previous week, remaining at a high level in recent years [73]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of June, the operating capacity has remained at a high level. As of July 31, the weekly production of electrolytic aluminum under the Steel Union caliber was 845,400 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from the previous week. The aluminum - water ratio has decreased seasonally [78]. - **Downstream Processing**: The production of recycled aluminum rods has decreased by 1,290 tons week - on - week. The production of aluminum rods has increased by 3,400 tons week - on - week. The production of aluminum plate, strip, and foil has increased by 4,950 tons week - on - week [81]. 3.6 Profit - related - **Alumina**: The smelting profit has continued to recover, with a slight decline this week. The profit in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan has remained stable, and the profit in Guangxi is better than that in other regions [89]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit remains at a high level, but global macroeconomic complexity, geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies have increased uncertainties and interfered with market expectations [98]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods has significantly increased by 110 yuan/ton week - on - week, but the downstream processing profit remains at a low level [99]. 3.7 Consumption - related - **Import and Export Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss of alumina and Shanghai Aluminum have widened. In June 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products has significantly decreased by 57,000 tons month - on - month [107][109]. - **Absolute Consumption Volume**: The transaction area of commercial housing has declined, while the automobile production has increased month - on - month [116].

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide futures market experienced volatility with a final increase of 1.65%, driven by mixed factors including low warehouse receipts and rising domestic production capacity, leading to expectations of oversupply [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's aluminum oxide warehouse receipts dropped to a historical low of 0.4 million tons, heightening concerns over warehouse squeeze risks, which provided short-term price support [1] - Domestic aluminum oxide production capacity continues to rise, with total operating capacity reaching 89.57 million tons per year and a weekly operating rate increase of 0.45 percentage points to 81.19% [3] - The demand side remains relatively weak, with downstream aluminum plants maintaining high raw material inventories and showing limited acceptance of high-priced aluminum oxide [3] Group 2: Supply Chain Disruptions - A strike at the Friguia aluminum oxide plant in Guinea has raised concerns about overseas supply stability, although it has not yet had a substantial impact on supply [2] - Rising import prices for bauxite from Guinea are pushing up production costs, reinforcing the cost support logic for aluminum oxide [2] Group 3: Future Price Outlook - Institutions are cautious about future price movements, with expectations of wide fluctuations in prices, suggesting resistance at 3500 and support at 3000 [4] - Analysts recommend investors observe the aluminum oxide warehouse registration volume and changes in production capacity, as well as macroeconomic policies [4] - The market is currently in a tug-of-war between low warehouse support and expectations of supply surplus, with a focus on warehouse changes, overseas supply disruptions, and domestic production progress [4]

Group 1: Price Trends - The price of alumina has recently shown strong upward momentum, with the main futures contract rising by 8.39% and 6.07% on July 21 and 22, respectively, resulting in a total increase of 300 yuan per ton, reaching 3513 yuan per ton [3] - In the spot market, alumina prices have also increased, with average price rises of 25 to 50 yuan per ton across various regions, including a 25 yuan increase in Guangxi and a 50 yuan increase in Henan [3] - Earlier this year, alumina prices peaked above 5000 yuan per ton in January but fell below 3000 yuan per ton by early April, marking a decline of over 40% [4] Group 2: Market Drivers - The recent price surge is closely linked to policy signals indicating a tightening of supply, particularly in key industries such as steel and non-ferrous metals [3] - Market sentiment has been buoyed by expectations of capacity elimination in alumina production, leading to increased inquiries and a strong performance in the spot market [3] - The "anti-involution" policy expectations have contributed to a bullish sentiment among traders, resulting in price increases and reluctance to sell [3] Group 3: Company Performance - Downstream electrolytic aluminum companies have benefited from the alumina price decline, with Yun Aluminum Co. expecting a profit of 2.7 to 2.8 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 7.19% to 11.16% [4] - Other companies, such as Jiaozuo Wanfang and Zhongfu Industrial, also reported significant profit increases, with expected profits of 500 to 560 million yuan and 680 to 720 million yuan, respectively, driven by lower costs and higher sales prices [4] Group 4: Cost and Profitability - The weighted average cost of alumina is currently estimated at 2842 yuan per ton, with a theoretical profit of approximately 340 yuan per ton, indicating that the industry is operating at a profitable level [5] - As the cost of raw materials continues to decline, overall production costs are expected to decrease further [5] - Short-term market sentiment remains strong due to policy expectations and tight supply, but medium-term price increases may be limited by fundamental market conditions [5]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide futures market has shifted from a strong upward trend to a phase of oscillation and correction, with the main contract AO2509 declining from a recent high of 3238 yuan/ton on July 10 to a low of 3055 yuan/ton on July 17, indicating a downward price adjustment [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The initial price increase was driven by factors such as stable spot prices and macroeconomic policies, including expectations of domestic "anti-involution" policies and speculation about supply-side reforms in aluminum oxide [2] - The current supply-demand structure is evolving from a tight balance to a structural surplus, with operating capacity recovering to high levels and weekly production maintaining historical highs [3] - Despite some tightness in the spot market due to high execution rates of long-term contracts in certain regions, the overall supply of aluminum oxide remains loose [3] Group 2: Production and Profitability - The average daily production of aluminum oxide has exceeded 250,000 tons, with profits for aluminum oxide enterprises generally above 200 yuan/ton, and low-cost producers achieving profits over 600 yuan/ton [4] - The improvement in profitability has stimulated the resumption of previously idled production capacity [4] - The average complete cost of aluminum oxide is gradually decreasing as domestic ore prices stabilize and import ore prices show slight weakness [3][4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Key variables to watch in the aluminum oxide market include the pace of new capacity releases, the recovery of bauxite supply from Guinea, and potential production cuts or inventory reductions in response to macroeconomic uncertainties [4] - Short-term tightness in spot supply may support aluminum oxide prices, but if new capacity is released as planned in the second half of the year, prices may face downward pressure due to anticipated oversupply [5]

氧化铝周报 2025 年 7 月 14 日 关注库存变化 氧化铝偏好震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 ⚫ 矿端近期进口和国产矿表现都相对较稳，几内亚 雨季影响尚在继续，但由于传导至中国港口方面 尚需一定时间周期，近期中国进口矿到港情况暂 无过多变化。供应端氧化铝供应较前期有所增多。 上周部分提产的企业产量增量陆续体现，氧化铝 供应有所增多。但多数企业以执行长单为主，加之 部分企业焙烧炉阶段性检修导致提货困难，局部 地区氧化铝现货仍旧偏紧，氧化铝开工产能9320 万吨，开工率为81.18%。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The news about Guinea's mines still has uncertainties, and the unstable raw material supply is expected to support the alumina price to remain strong. However, after the significant increase in the alumina price, the profit margin has recovered, and the production willingness of enterprises has increased. There may be复产 in the future, so the production changes of alumina enterprises need to be closely monitored. The short - term supply - demand situation of alumina is tight, and the price remains favorable, but the increase may be limited [2][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - From May 16th to May 23rd, the alumina futures (active) rose from 2890 yuan/ton to 3169 yuan/ton, an increase of 279 yuan/ton; the domestic alumina spot rose from 2991 yuan/ton to 3220 yuan/ton, an increase of 229 yuan/ton; the spot premium decreased from 46 yuan/ton to - 6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton; the Australian alumina FOB remained at 370 US dollars/ton; the import profit and loss increased from - 338.93 yuan/ton to - 91.44 yuan/ton, an increase of 247.5 yuan/ton; the exchange warehouse inventory decreased from 197,535 tons to 156,999 tons, a decrease of 40,536 tons; the exchange factory warehouse inventory remained at 7200 tons; the prices of domestic bauxite in Shanxi, Henan, Guangxi, and Guizhou remained stable, while the Guinea CIF increased from 70 US dollars/ton to 72 US dollars/ton [3] Market Review - The main alumina futures contract rose 9.96% last week, closing at 3169 yuan/ton. The national weighted average of the spot market was reported at 3220 yuan/ton on Friday, up 229 yuan/ton from last week. The spot circulation volume of domestic bauxite is limited, and the alumina enterprises have no plan to adjust the ore purchase price this week. The price continues to run stably. For imported bauxite, the future development of the affected mining areas in Guinea is still unclear, and it is necessary to further monitor whether the subsequent development of this event will worsen the bauxite supply situation. In the short term, the price of imported bauxite is clearly supported by positive factors, and the price center may rise. On the supply side, alumina enterprises are both reducing and increasing production. Some alumina enterprises in Shanxi are reducing production, while some previously overhauled enterprises have ended their overhauls, and new northern production capacities are releasing output. The operating production capacity of alumina has slightly increased, the supply change is limited, and the spot is still in a short - term tight situation. As of May 22nd, China's alumina production capacity was 112.2 million tons, the operating production capacity was 86.35 million tons, and the operating rate was 76.96%. On the consumption side, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Shandong is continuing to transfer to Yunnan. In addition, the production capacity in Guangxi and Sichuan is being restored. Overall, the operating production capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry has continued to increase this week, and the demand for alumina has slightly increased. In terms of inventory, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 130,658 tons to 157,000 tons last Friday, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 7200 tons [4] Market Outlook - Last week, the mining end in Guinea experienced a process of escalating and then easing disturbances. At the beginning of the week, the Guinea government designated multiple mining licenses as strategic reserve areas, making the resumption of production in the suspended mining areas in Guinea more uncertain. Near the weekend, there was news that the mine owners whose bauxite mining licenses were revoked in Guinea could resume production by paying the local development contribution or participating in the re - bidding. On the supply side, alumina enterprises both reduced and increased production last week. Some alumina plants in Shanxi reduced production, while some previously overhauled enterprises released output after resuming production. The theoretical operating production capacity increased slightly compared with the previous week. On the consumption side, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity was basically stable, and there was still a slight gap in the theoretical production capacity matching last week. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory continued to decrease by 130,658 tons to 157,000 tons last week, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 7200 tons. Overall, the news about Guinea's mines still has uncertainties, and the unstable raw material supply is expected to support the alumina price to remain strong. However, after the significant increase in the alumina price, the profit margin has recovered, and the production willingness of enterprises has increased. There may be复产 in the future, so the production changes of alumina enterprises need to be closely monitored. The short - term supply - demand situation of alumina is tight, and the price remains favorable, but the increase may be limited [6] Industry News - The issue of the Guinea government revoking the mining licenses of some mines has further escalated. On the evening of Tuesday, May 20, 2025, the transitional authorities read out a decree on national television, deciding to classify multiple mining rights as strategic reserve areas, including concessions, industrial and semi - industrial mining licenses, and exploration licenses for bauxite, iron, gold, diamonds, and graphite. In the first quarter of this year, the characteristic industries in Bozhou District, Zunyi City showed new vitality. The electrolytic aluminum output exceeded 100,000 tons, and the output value of the bauxite industrial chain increased. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in April 2025, China's alumina output was 7.323 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%; the cumulative output from January to April was 29.919 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%. In April, the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.754 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%; the cumulative output from January to April was 14.793 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. In April, the aluminum product output was 5.764 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%; the cumulative output from January to April was 21.117 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In April, the aluminum alloy output was 1.528 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%; the cumulative output from January to April was 5.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.7% [7] Related Charts - The report provides charts on alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina current - continuous one inter - period spreads, domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite CIF, caustic soda prices, thermal coal prices, alumina cost - profit, and alumina exchange inventory [9][10][11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The suspension of operations at the Guinea Axis mine is significantly impacting alumina prices, with domestic alumina contracts rising by 1.55% to 3138 yuan/ton due to supply concerns from Guinea, which is China's largest bauxite import source [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Guinea remains the largest source of bauxite imports for China, with imports increasing to 67.77 million tons from January to April 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [1]. - The Guinea Axis mine, with an annual capacity of approximately 40 million tons, has been ordered to halt operations, affecting an estimated 2.3 million tons of production in 2024 [2]. - The suspension of the Axis mine could shift the alumina supply-demand balance from surplus to shortage if the halt continues, as Guinea's bauxite shipment volume was previously expected to increase by 25 to 28 million tons [2]. Group 2: Domestic Production and Market Conditions - Domestic alumina production from January to April 2025 reached 28.76 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, although April's production saw a month-on-month decline of 11.3% [3]. - The total operational capacity for alumina in China decreased to 84.12 million tons per year, with a weekly operating rate down by 2.66 percentage points to 77.02% [3]. - Recent production cuts due to maintenance have tightened the spot market for alumina, leading to a rebound in spot prices as production costs decrease with falling bauxite prices [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the short-term price increase for alumina may be limited, as there is a high probability that mining companies will reach agreements with the Guinea government, potentially mitigating long-term supply concerns [4]. - The market sentiment is currently influenced by the supply disruptions from Guinea, with expectations of strong fluctuations in alumina prices due to ongoing negotiations and potential recovery timelines for the affected mines [5][7]. - The recent withdrawal of mining licenses by the Guinea government has raised concerns about the duration and scale of supply disruptions, which could lead to significant changes in the alumina market dynamics [8][9].

Group 1 - The main contract for alumina opened slightly lower but remained stable above the 3000 mark, with a significant increase observed in the previous night session [2] - Guinea's government has revoked mining licenses for 46 companies, signaling a warning to large mining operators, although these companies are not major producers in Guinea's mining sector [2][3] - The Axis mining area has been ordered to halt operations, affecting an annual capacity of approximately 40 million tons, with the recovery timeline currently unknown [3] Group 2 - Guinea exported approximately 146.4 million tons of bauxite last year, with expectations to exceed 200 million tons this year, representing a 35% increase from the previous record [3] - Domestic alumina production is expected to increase to 86.96 million tons in May, with a production volume of 7.35 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 3.5% and a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [4] - The alumina operating rate has decreased by 2.66% to 77.02%, with maintenance activities reported in several regions [4] Group 3 - Recent data indicates a weekly decrease in alumina inventory by 36,900 tons, while social inventory has increased slightly [5] - Analysts suggest that the recent revocation of mining licenses and production cuts may lead to a potential upward trend in alumina prices, despite the risk of oversupply due to increased imports [6][7] - The market is expected to maintain a strong price trend for alumina in the short term, with prices projected to range between 2850 and 3050 yuan per ton [7][8]

Summary of the Aluminum Oxide Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The aluminum oxide industry has transitioned from oversupply to a tighter supply situation due to production cuts by companies such as Shanxi Aokeda, Senze Aluminum, and Xinfeng from late March to early May, leading to a decrease in operating levels from 93.6 million tons to 86.5 million tons [1][5][12]. Key Points and Arguments - **Production Cost Increases**: The production costs of aluminum oxide have been rising, primarily due to fluctuations in ore structure costs. Domestic ore supply tightness has led to increased reliance on imported ore, with prices rising from 1,460 RMB to nearly 2,000 RMB [1][6]. - **Guinea Bauxite Price Impact**: The price of bauxite from Guinea has decreased to 70 USD/ton, which has lowered domestic production costs for aluminum oxide to around 2,700 RMB in Shandong and 2,900 RMB in Shanxi. However, the long transportation cycle of 40 days complicates the timing of using high and low-priced ores [1][7][8]. - **Price Fluctuations**: Aluminum oxide prices have fluctuated significantly, dropping from a high of 5,850 RMB/ton to a low of 2,850 RMB/ton. This volatility is attributed to high operating rates, previous high-profit margins, and expectations of new production capacity releases [3][12]. - **Production Cuts**: When aluminum oxide prices fell to 2,850 RMB/ton, companies faced losses of 500 RMB/ton, prompting widespread production cuts across the industry [1][10]. - **Future Supply and Demand**: The outlook for the aluminum oxide market in 2025 is not optimistic due to significant new production capacity coming online, such as the projects from Nong'an and Guotou Beihai. If the industry stabilizes around 70 USD, spot prices are expected to range between 2,900 and 3,000 RMB [3][26][27]. Additional Important Insights - **Impact of Guinea's Government Actions**: The Guinea government has nationalized unexploited mines, affecting companies like Shunda and potentially tightening global ore supply. While domestic reserves are currently sufficient, prolonged issues could impact prices significantly [3][21][22]. - **Production Recovery and Market Dynamics**: There are rumors of production recovery, but these lack logical support. The overall market price has only seen a slight increase, indicating that if production resumes, prices may revert to previous levels [11][17]. - **Non-Metallurgical Demand**: There has been a significant increase in non-metallurgical demand for aluminum oxide, which has contributed to strong purchasing activity in recent months [16]. - **Transportation Challenges**: The transportation route from Guinea to China is lengthy and complex, taking over 40 days, which affects the timing and pricing of ore availability [8]. - **Cost Structure**: The overall industry cost structure is under pressure, with cash costs and full costs differing by approximately 150 to 200 RMB due to depreciation and financial costs [34][35]. Conclusion The aluminum oxide industry is currently facing a complex landscape characterized by fluctuating prices, rising production costs, and significant changes in supply dynamics due to both domestic and international factors. The anticipated new production capacities and government actions in Guinea will play crucial roles in shaping the market's future.