Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive market is facing significant challenges in 2026, with predictions of a decline in sales due to economic pressures and changing consumer behavior, despite some optimistic forecasts for growth in exports and specific segments like new energy vehicles [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Trends and Predictions - In 2026, the overall automotive sales in China are expected to range between 34.5 million to 35 million units, with a potential decline in domestic retail sales by over 5% if no significant policy changes occur [3][7]. - January 2026 data shows a dramatic decline in retail sales, with a 28% year-on-year drop, indicating a challenging start to the year [6]. - Various institutions predict a range of outcomes for 2026, with the most pessimistic forecasts suggesting a 7% decline in sales, while the most optimistic predict only a 1% increase [4][7][8]. Group 2: Policy and Economic Influences - Key factors affecting the market include adjustments to subsidy policies for new energy vehicles, which have shifted from full exemptions to partial reductions, impacting consumer purchasing behavior [6][9]. - The decline in consumer confidence and shrinking middle-class income due to economic downturns are expected to further suppress automotive sales [6][9]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The automotive industry is experiencing intense competition, with a shift from price wars to a focus on technological advancements and value creation as companies seek to stabilize their market positions [12][16]. - Major players are adjusting their sales targets, with some aiming for significant growth while others adopt more conservative strategies in response to market conditions [18][19]. Group 4: Export Opportunities - Exports are projected to be a key growth area, with expectations of a 12-15% increase, potentially reaching 8 million units, which could help offset domestic market declines [22][26]. - The global supply chain dynamics are pushing Chinese automotive companies to enhance their international presence, with a focus on building global production and R&D capabilities [26][28]. Group 5: Segment-Specific Insights - The new energy vehicle segment is anticipated to grow, with retail sales expected to increase by 12-15%, driven by favorable policies for mid-range models [9][10]. - The large six-seat SUV market is projected to maintain strong growth, with expectations of a 30-50% increase in sales, despite overall market challenges [31][32].

同时响应"乐购新春"特别活动，车企纷纷推出"0首付""0利息"等各种促销活动引流揽客。 一手促消费，一手抓保障。"十五五"第一个春节，汽车行业攒足士气，赚了人气，为"全年红"博得好彩 头。 海外市场同样频传捷报，比亚迪1月出口增长5成，北汽增长16％；在新年新规下，二手车"出海"迈向价 值提升新阶段。 中国汽车报从第3970期开始，"2026新春走基层"专题报道将以最前沿的视角，记录汽车行业全力备战春 节档。 2026年，多家车企迎来"开门红"，1月市场数据表现亮眼。为延续好势头，抢抓春节增换购需求， 后勤保障方面，相关企业更是毫不松懈，上汽、长安等以贴心服务温暖车主回家路；京东物流、德邦等 企业调足运力，宣布"不打烊"…… ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive market is currently experiencing a sales downturn, particularly in January, with a significant drop in retail sales and varying performance among different brands, influenced by changes in tax policies and consumer behavior [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - In January, nationwide retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.794 million units, a year-on-year decline of 12.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 31.9% [3]. - The sales performance of major automotive brands showed a pattern of "year-on-year differentiation and month-on-month decline," with domestic brands facing pressure due to the recent tax policy changes [3][4]. - The sales pressure in January was less intense compared to December 2025, with promotional efforts being more standard, focusing on tax subsidies and financing options [5]. Group 2: Domestic Brand Performance - Geely Auto topped domestic brands with sales of 270,200 units in January, achieving a year-on-year growth of 1% and a month-on-month increase of 14%, supported by its electric vehicle (EV) business and overseas markets [5]. - SAIC Group's domestic brand sales reached 214,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 39.6%, accounting for 65.3% of total sales [6]. - GAC Group's domestic brands saw explosive growth, with sales of 49,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 87.58% [7]. Group 3: Joint Venture Brand Performance - In January, joint venture brands sold 490,000 units, a year-on-year decline of 27% and a month-on-month decline of 30%, although leading brands like GAC Toyota and SAIC General showed positive growth [8][9]. - GAC Toyota achieved sales of 63,600 units, a year-on-year increase of nearly 10%, driven by strong performance in its core fuel models [9]. - SAIC General's EV segment grew by 89.7% year-on-year, contributing to its overall sales of 51,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 8.2% [9][10]. Group 4: Export Growth - The overseas market has become a crucial growth driver for domestic automakers, with many companies reporting export growth rates exceeding 40% [11]. - Chery Group exported 119,600 units in January, a year-on-year increase of 48.1%, maintaining its position as the top exporter in China [11]. - Geely's overseas sales reached 60,500 units, with a year-on-year growth of 121%, highlighting the importance of international markets for its overall strategy [12]. Group 5: Industry Trends - The automotive export volume in China is expected to reach 7.4 million units in 2026, with EV exports projected to exceed 30% of total exports [13]. - The overseas market has transitioned from a supplementary channel to a core growth driver, with leading companies enhancing their global competitiveness through localization and product adaptation [13].

www.ccxi.com.cn 行业展望 2026 年 2 月 | 目录 | | | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 1 | | 分析思路 | 2 | | 行业基本面 | 2 | | 行业财务表现 | 13 | | 结论 | 17 | | 附表 | 18 | 联络人 作者 mltang@ccxi.com.cn 刘紫萱 010-66428877 zxliu@ccxi.com.cn 郑皓月 010-66428877 hyzheng@ccxi.com.cn 其他联络人 王梦莹 010-66428877 中诚信国际行业展望 中诚信国际 中国汽车行业 企业评级部 汤梦琳 010-66428877 中国汽车行业展望，2026 年 2 月 以旧换新政策延续将持续释放政策红利，加之车企可依托技术与产业 链优势实现出口放量，预期 2026 年汽车行业产销量仍将高位运行，但 新能源购置税政策退坡、出口面临挑战等将令我国汽车行业面临较大 的增长压力；在新能源转型深化、市场秩序持续改善的双重支撑下， 预期车企整体财务基本面保持平稳，偿债压力处于可控区间。 中国汽车行业展望维持稳定，中诚信国际认为，未来 12~18 个月该 ...

Core Viewpoint - BYD's fourth-quarter performance is projected to show a range of operating revenue between 239.30 billion to 344.13 billion RMB, with a year-on-year change of -12.9% to 25.2% [1][7]. Financial Projections - The forecasted net profit is estimated to be between 11.29 billion to 19.51 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year change of -24.8% to 29.9% [1][7]. - The adjusted net profit is projected at 14.85 billion RMB [1][7]. - Average revenue estimates from various institutions suggest a mean of 285.16 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [2][8]. - Median revenue estimates are similar at 285.16 billion RMB, also with a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [2][8]. Sales Performance - In January 2026, BYD's total sales volume was 210,000 units, down 30% year-on-year and 50% month-on-month [4][10]. - Domestic sales accounted for 110,000 units, showing a decline of 53% year-on-year and 62% month-on-month [4][10]. - Overseas sales reached 100,000 units, marking a 51% increase year-on-year but a 25% decrease month-on-month [4][10]. Business Segments - High-end sales in January were 28,000 units, representing a 54% year-on-year increase and accounting for 13% of total sales [4][11]. - Battery installation volume in January was 20.2 GWh, reflecting a 30% year-on-year growth [5][12]. - The expected shipment of energy storage batteries for 2026 is approximately 80 GWh [5][12]. Market Outlook - BYD anticipates total sales of 5.12 million units in 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 11% [4][10]. - Export sales are expected to be between 1.5 to 1.6 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 44% to 53% [4][10]. - The company plans to enhance market competitiveness through technological upgrades and product improvements [6][12].

Core Viewpoint - BYD's wholesale sales in January reached 210,000 units, showing a year-on-year decline of 30.1% and a month-on-month decline of 50.0%, with domestic sales at 100,000 units (down 53.2% year-on-year, down 61.9% month-on-month) and overseas sales at 110,000 units (up 51.5% year-on-year), accounting for 47.8% of total sales in January [1] Group 1 - The decline in January sales is attributed to proactive inventory reduction and a transitional policy period, resulting in a structure characterized by "domestic destocking and high overseas sales" [1] - The outlook for 2026 and beyond emphasizes that exports are the most crucial support for the company's long-term strategy [1] - The company is accelerating the establishment of its own shipping fleet and overseas factories to enhance export capabilities [1] Group 2 - Drawing parallels with Toyota's operational history, the overseas business is expected to positively impact stock prices during periods of domestic sales pressure [1] - The research maintains a "buy" rating for the company [1]

转自：中国质量报 多家车企1月销量出炉 出口成拉动销量重要因素 □ 本报记者 岳 倩 近日，多家车企陆续披露新年首月销量数据。整体来看，1月车企销量呈现出同比稳健上升、环比回落 的特征，新能源车与燃油车、新势力与传统品牌的市场表现呈现出结构性分化趋势。在国内存量竞争日 趋白热化的背景下，出口成为车企拉动整体销量、对冲国内市场波动的增长极。 据了解，车企往往选择在年底刺激销量，大部分车企2025年12月的销量基数较高。此外，1月为传统汽 车销售淡季，叠加新能源汽车购置税补贴退坡、以旧换新和报废补贴规则修改等政策换挡影响，因此， 大部分车企出现"环比下滑"的趋势符合市场规律。 传统车企的销量数据显示，有燃油车业务板块的车企在一定程度上对冲了风险，1月表现相对稳健；同 时，海外市场已经成为销量的重要增长极。 央国企方面，上汽集团实现整车批售32.7万辆，同比增长23.9%，环比下降约18.03%；海外销售10.5万 辆，同比增长51.7%。广汽集团销售汽车11.66万辆，同比增长18.47%，环比下滑37.79%，海外销量同比 增长68.59%。 民营企业方面，吉利汽车销量为27.02万辆，同比增长1.29%，环比 ...

Group 1: Automotive Export Growth - In December 2025, China's automotive exports reached 994,000 units, with a month-on-month increase of 21.4% and a year-on-year increase of 73.2% [1] - The total automotive exports for 2025 are projected to be 8.324 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 29.9%, with export value reaching $142.46 billion, a 21.4% increase year-on-year [1] - The growth in automotive exports indicates a structural shift from low-cost competition to high-value outputs in technology and branding, benefiting leading companies with strong overseas channels and localized production [1] Group 2: Changan Automobile Share Buyback - Changan Automobile plans to repurchase shares worth between 1 billion to 2 billion yuan, reflecting confidence in its future prospects and intrinsic value [2] - The buyback plan includes a minimum of 700 million yuan and a maximum of 1.4 billion yuan for A-shares, and a minimum of 300 million yuan and a maximum of 600 million yuan for B-shares [2] - This significant buyback initiative aims to improve the company's capital structure and enhance market confidence, highlighting the importance of cash flow and market value management during the transformation period for leading domestic automakers [2] Group 3: New Energy Vehicle Sales Forecast - In January 2026, the estimated wholesale sales of new energy vehicles in China are projected to be 900,000 units, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 1% [3] - Major players like BYD, Geely, and Tesla China reported wholesale sales of 205,518 units, 124,252 units, and 69,129 units respectively [3] - The modest growth in new energy vehicle sales is attributed to factors such as changes in tax policies, pre-holiday demand release, and the seasonal impact of the Spring Festival [3] Group 4: Autonomous Driving Initiatives in Guangdong - The Guangdong provincial government has issued an implementation opinion to accelerate the high-quality construction of a digital society, which includes expanding the operational areas for autonomous public transportation [4] - The policy aims to enhance the testing and demonstration application of intelligent connected vehicles, encouraging digital transportation service platforms to provide integrated smart traffic services [4] - This initiative signifies a shift from "road testing" to "scaled operation" for autonomous vehicles, providing practical scenarios for intelligent vehicle companies and promoting the development of digital transportation platforms in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [4]

在加拿大针对中国电动车的关税政策持续调整之际，中国汽车公司在该国市场释放出试水信号。新 闻注意到，奇瑞正通过系统化招聘，为整车进入加拿大市场推进前期筹备。上个月，加拿大总理马克· 卡尼访华期间宣布，对中国产电动汽车给予每年4.9万辆的配额，配额内适用6.1%的最惠国关税。有媒 体报道称，该配额在未来五年内有望上调。此外，他还表示，超过一半中国产电动汽车将低于3.5万加 元（约18.2万元人民币左右）。 ...

Core Insights - The automotive industry in China has shown significant growth in vehicle exports, with a total of 994,000 vehicles exported in December 2025, marking a month-on-month increase of 21.4% and a year-on-year increase of 73.2% [1] - The export value for December 2025 reached $17.14 billion, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 23.6% and a year-on-year growth of 71.7% [1] - For the entire year of 2025, total vehicle exports amounted to 8.324 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.9%, while the total export value reached $142.46 billion, up 21.4% year-on-year [1]