人民财讯12月31日电，商务部等5部门办公厅(室)发布关于做好2026年家电以旧换新、数码和智能产品 购新补贴工作的通知，2026年1月1日起，按照全国统一的品类和标准，对个人消费者购买1级能效或水 效标准的冰箱、洗衣机、电视、空调、热水器、电脑6类家电产品，以及单件销售价格不超过6000元的 手机、平板、智能手表(手环)、智能眼镜4类数码和智能产品给予补贴。补贴标准为上述产品扣除各环 节优惠后最终销售价格的15%，每人每类可补贴1件，其中，家电产品每件补贴不超过1500元，数码和 智能产品每件补贴不超过500元。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and volatile trend at the end of the year. Various factors such as policy, supply - demand, and geopolitical situation affect different sectors. For example, the stock index is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend before the end of the year due to sector rotation; the bond market sentiment is average with limited new information and is waiting for the release of official PMI data; different commodity futures also show different trends based on their own fundamentals and external factors [21][24]. Summary by Category Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market closes steadily. The index shows a volatile upward trend due to sector rotation. It is recommended to go long on dips, conduct IM/IC futures - ETF arbitrage when the discount widens, and use a bull spread for options [21][22]. - **Treasury Futures**: The performance at the close is differentiated. The market is waiting for the official PMI data. It is recommended to hold short positions in TS and TF lightly and wait and see for arbitrage [24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: There is still supply pressure, and the market shows a small - scale shock. It is recommended to lay out a small number of long positions, narrow the MRM spread, and use a short straddle strategy for options [28]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price drops sharply, and the domestic price follows weakly. It is expected to oscillate near the current platform. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and sell put options [33][34]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: There is still a lack of obvious drivers, and the rebound space may be limited. It is recommended to hold a light position before the festival, go short after the rebound, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price rises, but the futures price falls from a high level. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 03 and 07 contracts, narrow the 03 corn - starch spread, and wait and see for options [39]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure decreases, and the spot price continues to be strong. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price shows a narrow - range shock. It is recommended that the 05 contract oscillates at the bottom, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [47]. - **Eggs**: The demand slightly recovers, but the price drops. It is recommended to go long on far - month contracts on dips and wait and see for arbitrage and options [51]. - **Apples**: The demand is average, and the price is mainly stable. It is recommended to oscillate in the short - term range, go long on the 1 contract and short on the 10 contract for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [56]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The new cotton sales are good, and the price oscillates strongly. It is recommended that the US cotton oscillates in the range, the Zhengzhou cotton oscillates strongly with a possible short - term callback risk, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [60]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The raw material replenishment starts, and the steel price maintains a range - bound shock. It is recommended to maintain the shock trend, short the coil - coal ratio and the coil - screw spread, and wait and see for options [62][63]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They oscillate and wait for new drivers. It is recommended to wait and see mainly or go long on dips lightly, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [66][67]. - **Iron Ore**: The market expectation is repeated, and the price oscillates. It is recommended to oscillate in the short - term [69]. - **Ferroalloys**: The supply - demand margin is expected to improve, and the cost drives the price. It is recommended to go long on dips, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [72]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: They oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily [76]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Pay attention to position management before the New Year's Day holiday. It is recommended to go long on dips, conduct long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage, and wait and see for options [80][81][82]. - **Copper**: The short - term fluctuation intensifies. It is recommended to control the position, go long on dips in the long - term, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [83]. - **Alumina**: It oscillates mainly after the convergence of the warehouse receipt registration profit. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [87]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: It oscillates at a high level. It is recommended to go long on dips, pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of buying spot delivery products and shorting futures, and wait and see for options [91]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It oscillates at a high level with the sector. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [94]. - **Zinc**: Control the position reasonably before the holiday. It is recommended to oscillate widely, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [96]. - **Lead**: Pay attention to the impact of funds on the price and control the position reasonably before the holiday. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions and hold the rest, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [99]. - **Nickel**: The news of Indonesia's reduction of nickel ore quotas boosts the price. It is recommended to treat it as an upward trend before a significant inventory build - up, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [100][101][102]. - **Stainless Steel**: It follows the nickel price and runs strongly. It is recommended to follow the nickel price to go long and wait and see for arbitrage [105]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It rebounds in the short - term and goes short on rallies in the medium - term. It is recommended to go short on rallies, conduct long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [106]. - **Polysilicon**: The long - term fundamentals are favorable, but the short - term trading volume shrinks. It is recommended to be cautious, conduct long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon arbitrage, and sell put options [108]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The subsidy policy boosts the sentiment. It is recommended to control the position and be cautious, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [110]. - **Tin**: Some long - position funds take profits, and the price drops sharply. It is recommended to oscillate widely after the sharp drop and wait and see for options [113]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The MSK's price increase slightly exceeds expectations, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term. It is recommended to take most profits on long positions of the EC2602 contract and hold the rest lightly, and wait and see for arbitrage [114][115]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market trading is light at the end of the year, and geopolitical conflicts cause fluctuations. It is recommended to oscillate widely, conduct relevant arbitrage, and wait and see for options [117][118]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material contradiction is difficult to resolve, and the price oscillates strongly. It is recommended to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [123]. - **Fuel Oil**: The near - end fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are weak. It is recommended to go short, conduct relevant arbitrage, and wait and see for options [126]. - **LPG**: The upward space is limited. It is recommended to go short on far - month contracts, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [130]. - **PX & PTA**: The polyester sales and cost weaken, and the price drops from a high level. It is recommended to oscillate at a high level in the short - term, conduct relevant arbitrage, and wait and see for options [132]. - **BZ & EB**: The pure benzene inventory build - up pressure slows down, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It is recommended to oscillate strongly, conduct short - pure benzene and long - styrene arbitrage, and wait and see for options [136]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory continues to rise. It is recommended to oscillate widely in the short - term and weakly in the medium - term, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options [139]. - **Short - Fiber**: The processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [141]. - **Bottle Chips**: The supply - demand is relatively loose. It is recommended to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [143]. - **Propylene**: The supply pressure is large, and the downstream product profits are differentiated. It is recommended to oscillate widely, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell both call and put options [146]. - **Plastic PP**: The PP inventory build - up rate slows down. It is recommended to hold long positions of the L 2605 contract, wait and see for the PP 2605 contract, conduct relevant arbitrage and wait and see, and sell and hold the PP2605 put option [148][149]. - **PVC**: It oscillates mainly. It is recommended to rebound continuously, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [152]. - **Methanol**: It rises strongly. It is recommended to go long on the 05 contract, conduct relevant arbitrage, and sell put options on dips [154][155]. - **Urea**: It oscillates widely. It is recommended to pay attention to relevant policies and wait and see for relevant operations [157][158]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: The global economic data continues to improve. It is recommended to go short in the short - term, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [162]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The chemical industry production slowdown continues. It is recommended to hold short positions of the BR 03 contract, conduct relevant arbitrage, and wait and see for options [165].

通知称，支持家电以旧换新。个人消费者购买冰箱、洗衣机、电视、空调、电脑、热水器等6类家电中1 级能效或水效标准的产品，按产品销售价格的15%给予补贴，每位消费者每类产品可补贴1件，每件补 贴不超过1500元。支持数码和智能产品购新。个人消费者购买手机、平板、智能手表手环、智能眼镜等 4类产品(单件销售价格不超过6000元)，按产品销售价格的15%给予补贴，每位消费者每类产品可补贴1 件，每件补贴不超过500元。支持智能家居产品(含适老化家居产品)购新补贴，具体补贴品类、补贴标 准由地方结合实际自主合理制定。 业内人士分析称，从经济效应来看，这无疑是激活消费和推动产业升级的双重引擎。具体来看，补贴政 策向1级能效产品和智能终端倾斜，倒逼企业加大研发投入。例如，家电企业需提升压缩机、芯片等核 心部件效率以满足能效标准，而数码厂商则需在AI算法、传感器集成等领域突破，以增强产品竞争 力。这种"补贴-创新-市场扩大"的良性循环，将推动中国制造向高端化、智能化转型。 12月30日，国家发展改革委、财政部发布关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通 知。 终端品牌：小米集团(01810)、联想集团(009 ...

国家发展改革委、财政部发布关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知。 支持数码和智能产品购新。个人消费者购买手机、平板、智能手表手环、智能眼镜等4类产品（单件销 售价格不超过6000元），按产品销售价格的15%给予补贴，每位消费者每类产品可补贴1件，每件补贴 不超过500元。支持智能家居产品（含适老化家居产品）购新补贴，具体补贴品类、补贴标准由地方结 合实际自主合理制定。 来源：国家发改委网站 ...

全国财政工作会议12月27日至28日在北京召开。财政部部长蓝佛安表示，明年财政将大力提振消费。深 入实施提振消费专项行动，继续安排资金支持消费品以旧换新，调整优化补贴范围和标准。 会议指出，2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政策。一是扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度。二是优 化政府债券工具组合，更好发挥债券效益。三是提高转移支付资金效能，增强地方自主可用财力。四是 持续优化支出结构，强化重点领域保障。五是加强财政金融协同，放大政策效能。 这是再次确认2026年"国补"继续的同时，强调了"国补"范围和标准将优化调整。事实上从2024年实 施"国补"政策以来，"国补"的范围在持续优化调整。2026年国家消费品以旧换新政策将迎来调整。财政 部部长蓝佛安在全国财政工作会议上表示，明年将继续安排资金支持消费品以旧换新，并调整优化补贴 范围和标准。 中诚信国际研究院院长袁海霞指出，前期"国补"已部分透支消费需求，配套政策尚不完善，政策效果有 所减弱，建议后续调整使用方向，从商品消费转向服务消费，探索增加现金补贴、数字货币等形式的消 费激励，并拓展育儿、就业等民生领域补贴。粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒也建议，2026年应优化 ...

展望明年乃至"十五五"期间，滕泰认为，尽管仍面临诸多挑战，但我国在财政政策、货币政策、居民收 入政策等方面均有巨大的结构转型和总量扩张空间。要切实提振消费、扩大内需，打造全球重要消费高 地，将有效推动中国经济高质量发展。 （文章来源：证券日报） 12月26日，中国民营经济研究会副会长、万博新经济研究院院长滕泰在《证券日报》社有限责任公司举 办的"2025证券市场年会"上表示，今年前11个月，社会消费品零售总额456067亿元，增长4.0%。但10月 份、11月份消费增速有所下滑，应尽快从结构性促消费政策转向总量性促消费政策。 滕泰认为，总量性促消费政策的关键在于增加居民收入和降息。政府可通过发放收入补贴或消费补贴的 方式来刺激消费，把用于低效投资、补贴生产和出口的资金大规模转移到补贴消费上，且补贴方式最好 不指定商品，以提高中低收入者或普通居民的收入补贴。据测算，1万亿元消费补贴产生的总需求增长 效果远超1万亿元投资，能极大地促进经济循环。 在滕泰看来，货币政策在扩大内需中作用重大。中国有降息空间，且适度宽松货币政策和灵活降息降准 是中央经济工作会议明确的方向。在货币流动性方面，"十四五"期间居民储蓄总额大幅 ...

也正是在这种背景下，羽绒服这种"单价不低、但冬天必须用得上"的品类，成了最适合拿补贴来做示范 的对象。像最近唯品会的波司登"超级大牌日"，就把这套逻辑做得很直白：12月21日会上线促销，部分 热款至高立减1000元，并且可以叠加8折政府消费券。 更关键的是，这张券的领取方式也很简单，用户只需要在唯品会APP或小程序里搜索"西安消费 券"或"我爱西安"，就能进入页面领取；单次最高可抵扣200元，还支持一单多件叠加使用。 这种设计很聪明，它把"折扣"和"补贴"缝在了一起，让消费者不用在各个平台反复横跳。对家庭用户来 说，正好可以趁着冷空气来之前把家里几口人的厚薄款一次配齐；对个人用户来说，也更容易实现那 种"挑中不犹豫"的下单体验。 转自：财话连篇 都知道"投资、出口、消费"是拉动经济的三驾马车。在今年，出口这边确实很抢镜，前11个月我国货物 贸易进出口总值达41.21万亿元，同比增长3.6%，贸易顺差甚至突破1万亿美元；另一边，今年前三季度 外资投入也在逆势增长。 而在这种"外部强、内部要稳"的结构里，市场对"把消费这驾马车再拽一拽"的呼声也更密集了。所以你 会看到一个很明显的变化：补贴不再只盯着汽车家电等大件 ...

（来源：财闻） 杭州余杭区、钱塘区发放新一轮消费补贴和消费券。 12月24日，据杭州发布消息，杭州余杭区、钱塘区发放新一轮消费补贴和消费券。 余杭区 近日，余杭区第四轮购车补贴已申领完毕。为继续满足年末岁尾广大消费者的购车需求，经研究，决定 接续2025年余杭区第三轮汽车促消费补贴（点击查看补贴详情）启动第五轮汽车购车补贴活动。 活动时间 12月23日至12月31日 活动额度 岁末迎新，年意渐浓，"潮享生活·活力暖冬"钱塘年货消费季即将开启啦！好物荟萃、联袂登场，更有 3000张消费券助力嗨购，快来解锁惊喜，共赴暖冬盛会。 点击这里查看本次消费季更多内容。 领取时间 150万元（按车企在系统中申报顺序，先到先得如额度提前用完，活动当即结束） 注意事项 1.申报第五轮汽车促消费补贴活动的（即12月23日起购车开票并申领补贴的）消费者，需由车企在"余 省心"补贴系统申报准确材料，并在活动结束后一个月内完成新车上牌，并上传系统。 2.消费者、汽车销售企业不得通过重开发票等形式将11月24日之前已开票的车辆进行接续申报，以延长 新车上牌时间。区商务局将会对相关情况进行核查，一经发现，将取消该申请的补贴资格。确有特殊情 ...

明明表示，需求不足不是一个单一的结论，我们要把它分成不同类别来看，什么样的需求不足？怎么解 决相应问题？毫无疑问，第一个就是消费需求，上半年消费比较好很重要的原因是以旧换新政策，下半 年以旧换新政策额度用完，规模比上半年少。明年再多搞一点行不行？过去我们不断增加以旧换新规 模，方向肯定是对的，从结构来看，消费品以旧换新的商品似乎由大变小，这是因为不同产品消费周期 在发生变化。接下来的问题是明年补什么呢？这就是"十五五"规划建议和中央经济工作会议提出的从投 资于物转向投资于人，在耐用品的补贴告一段落之后，是不是可以转向服务商品，甚至是基础设施投 资，比如修一些体育运动场所、电影院、剧院等类似的基础设施投资，虽然投资于物但最后在人的身上 发生效能。所以从消费补贴政策来看，明年还希望进一步拉动消费，可能补贴的品类和补贴的方向要进 一步优化。 【中信证券首席经济学家明明：#消费补贴明年补什么#？】12月18日中信证券首席经济学家明明在#财 经年会2026#表示，明年还希望进一步拉动消费，可能补贴的品类和补贴的方向要进一步优化。在耐用 品的补贴告一段落之后，是不是可以转向服务商品，甚至是基础设施投资，比如修一些体育运动 ...

12月8日，记者在江苏省商务厅举行的"苏品e齐购 潮聚双十二"线上促消费活动新闻发布会上获悉，线下方面，江苏全省商务系统也将聚焦"双12"、元旦等 消费节点，以"苏新消费"品牌为引领，以"苏品苏货"为核心载体，在"苏新消费·暖冬购物季"总体框架下，从12月5日至20日，联动全省重点商圈、企业开 展主题市集、展销对接与体验活动等"双12"购物嘉年华活动，持续激活消费市场活力。 二是开展"双12苏品超享购"活动。联合江苏银联组织各大银行和重点企业，"双12"期间投入补贴资金1.5亿元，通过消费立减、分期贴息、利率优惠等方 式开展消费促进活动。聚焦苏品苏货、智能制造、特色消费，重点面向年轻消费群体，覆盖机器人、投影仪、咖啡机、新消费潮玩等江苏优势产品，更好 满足消费者多元化需求，推动江苏制造与江苏消费深度融合。 三是开展家电"亿元让利"专项活动。组织省家用电器协会联合重点家电品牌，发放"暖购消费券""暖购补贴券"，在全省13个设区市同步开展"亿元让利"促 销活动。支持金融机构叠加推出分期免息、以旧换新补贴等优惠活动。联动省财政厅、省福彩中心和省体彩中心，投入800万元持续开展"苏新消费·苏彩 焕新"彩票助力消费品以 ...