证 券 研 究 报 告 谢谢谢谢谢寻寻寻 口子窖（603589）2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 推荐（维持） 全年增速回正，改革仍待显效 目标价：40 元 事项： 公司研究 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 6,015 | 5,556 | 5,728 | 5,935 | | 同比增速(%) | 0.9% | -7.6% | 3.1% | 3.6% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 1,655 | 1,499 | 1,568 | 1,679 | | 同比增速(%) | -3.8% | -9.4% | 4.6% | 7.1% | | 每股盈利(元) | 2.76 | 2.50 | 2.61 | 2.80 | | 市盈率(倍) | 13 | 14 | 13 | 12 | | 市净率(倍) | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 风险提示：新品动销不及预期、渠道改革放缓、徽酒竞争加剧。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要 ...

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 27 年 月 日 汤臣倍健（300146.SZ） 经营压力释放，期待逐季向好 事件：公司发布 2025 年一季报，25Q1 实现营收 17.9 亿元，同比-32.3%； 实现归母净利润 4.5 亿元，同比-37.4%；实现扣非净利润 4.1 亿元，同比 -42.4%。 高基数及春节错期仍有压力，线下渠道客流量压力更大。25Q1 公司收入 增长仍有承压，我们认为主要受上年同期基数为全年较高、今年春节错期、 消费力偏弱且行业维持较高强度竞争影响。分渠道来看，25Q1 公司线上/ 线下收入同比-15.8%/-42.6%，线下渠道上年同期基数较高，且预计仍受 保健品行业整体线下渠道人流量承压、线上为主要增量渠道影响。分品牌 来看，25Q1 汤臣倍健主品牌/健力多/Life-spacce 国内/LSG 境外收入分别 同比-36.4%/-46.2%/-36.2%/+5.9%，线下占比较高的主品牌、健力多、 Life-spacce 国内收入增长压力较明显，而 LSG 境外表现相对稳健。 毛利率因产品结构及规模效应承压，费用管控效果逐步显现。25Q1 毛利 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing a release of cost benefits, leading to improved profitability and ongoing channel reforms [1][5] - The first quarter of 2025 saw total revenue of 713 million yuan, a decrease of 5% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 0.2% to 272 million yuan [4][5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock price is currently at 13.53 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 15.6 billion yuan [1] Financial Performance - The gross margin for Q1 2025 increased by 4 percentage points to 55.96%, attributed to improved production efficiency and historically low raw material prices [5] - The net profit margin rose by 2 percentage points to 38.19%, indicating sustained profitability [5] Product and Channel Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing product offerings and channel differentiation, with ongoing promotions for bundled products and a shift towards non-pickled vegetable categories [6] - The company is adjusting its product offerings between online and offline channels to optimize profitability and adapt to market demands [6] Earnings Forecast - The company anticipates EPS of 0.76, 0.81, and 0.85 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18, 17, and 16 times [7][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing a release of cost benefits, leading to improved profitability and ongoing channel reforms [1][5] - The first quarter of 2025 saw total revenue of 713 million yuan, a decrease of 5% year-on-year, attributed to a high base and a strategic shift to reduce sales proportion in Q1 [4][5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was 272 million yuan, an increase of 0.2% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was 257 million yuan, a decrease of 0.6% year-on-year [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's gross margin increased by 4 percentage points to 55.96% in Q1 2025, driven by improved production efficiency and historically low raw material prices [5] - The net profit margin rose by 2 percentage points to 38.19%, indicating sustained profitability [5] Product and Channel Strategy - The company is enhancing product bundling efforts and strengthening channel price differentiation, with a focus on expanding non-pickled vegetable products [6] - The company is adjusting its product offerings between online and offline channels to improve profitability and adapt to market demands [6] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to see EPS of 0.76, 0.81, and 0.85 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18, 17, and 16 times [7] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 2,578 million, 2,752 million, and 2,924 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 8.0%, 6.7%, and 6.3% respectively [10]

Core Viewpoint - Ganyuan Food's Q1 2025 financial results showed a significant decline in revenue and net profit, attributed to high base effects from the previous year and a contraction in traditional supermarket business [1][3]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 504 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.99% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 52.76 million yuan, down 42.21% year-on-year [1]. - The sales net profit margin dropped to 10.47% from around 15% in previous years, with the non-recurring net profit margin falling to 9.09% [4]. Reasons for Performance Decline - Revenue decline was influenced by a significant reduction in low-priced gift box live-streaming during the Spring Festival and a decrease in traditional supermarket business scale [3]. - Increased procurement costs for key raw materials, such as palm oil, led to a gross margin reduction of 1.08% [3]. - Sales expense ratio increased by 4.24 percentage points, and management expense ratio rose by 1.56 percentage points [3]. Market Expansion and New Channels - Ganyuan Food is focusing on expanding into Southeast Asian markets and has initiated a strategy to enhance its export capabilities [4]. - The company has established stable partnerships with various snack retail systems, which include a range of products [5]. - New channels, particularly snack retail stores, are seen as crucial for driving growth, although traditional channels are experiencing a decline [6]. Industry Context - The Chinese snack food market reached a size of 1,124.7 billion yuan in 2023, maintaining rapid growth but facing intense competition [7]. - Competitors like Liuyin Pupu and Three Squirrels have begun price reductions to enhance competitiveness, indicating a challenging market environment [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive," indicating an expected overall return exceeding 5% above the CSI 300 index in the next six months [33]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant reform in the life insurance agent channel, aimed at enhancing the quality of the insurance industry [28][29]. - The report notes that the non-bank financial sector has shown a mixed performance, with the Shenwan non-bank index increasing by 0.80%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.21 percentage points [9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of regulatory changes, such as the guidelines for personal marketing systems in the insurance sector, which are expected to drive growth and transformation [28][30]. Sub-industry Ratings - The sub-industry ratings are as follows: - Securities: Positive - Insurance: Positive - Diversified Financials: Positive - Recommended companies and their ratings include: - Founder Securities: Buy - Xiangcai Securities: Buy - China Life: Buy - ZhongAn Online: Increase [3][32]. Market Performance - As of April 18, 2025, the securities sector's PE-TTM valuation is 22.04x, and PB-LF valuation is 1.43x, with a trading volume share of 1.60% [5]. - The insurance sector's PEV valuations for major companies are as follows: - China Life: 0.61x - Ping An: 0.58x - China Pacific: 0.47x - New China Life: 0.50x - The trading volume share for the insurance sector is 0.42% [6]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on retail-oriented securities firms such as Founder Securities and Xiangcai Securities, as well as life insurance companies like China Life and tech-enabled firms like ZhongAn Online [6][32].

智通财经APP获悉，开源证券发布研报称，2025年3月社零数据增速环比回升，主要系"以旧换新"政策 扩大范围以及居民消费信心修复。展望2025年随着中美关税冲击影响，预计后续扩内需政策有望显著加 力，大力提振国内消费需求，食品饮料板块有望受益。细分板块看，白酒行业基本处于自身周期底部位 置，后续大概率是平稳上行，进入中长期布局时点。大众品方面，看好具有渠道改革与海外市场扩张红 利的零食板块;建议关注餐饮复苏下啤酒行业的改善;此外建议关注具备生育政策概念催化、原奶价格平 衡点有望加速到来的乳制品行业。 开源证券主要观点如下： 观测季度数据变化情况，2025Q1社会消费品零售总额同比+4.6%，增速环比2024Q4提升0.6pct，居民消 费处于持续改善阶段。2025Q1餐饮及限额以上餐饮收入同比分别+4.7%和+4.7%，增速环比2024Q4分别 +1.5pct和+3.2pct，一季度受益于消费需求改善，餐饮消费增速有所提升。2025Q1粮油食品类、饮料 类、烟酒类同比分别+12.2%、-0.5%、+6.3%，增速环比2024Q4分别+2.3pct、+4.1pct、+3.5pct，粮油食 品保持较高增速，饮料类 ...

曾与贵州茅台、五粮液并肩的泸州老窖，因几次战略失误导致发展掉队，不仅在高端赛道被五粮液拉开 身位，营收规模也被山西汾酒、洋河股份接连超越。如今，在行业周期下行与市场竞争加剧双重压力 下，面对增长放缓、产品结构失衡及渠道困局的泸州老窖，该如何突围？ 泸州老窖突围战，何时重返行业前三？ 吴楠 在中国白酒行业的黄金时代，"茅五泸"这一组合几乎是品质与价值的代名词。作为拥有450 余年窖池传承的"浓香鼻祖"，泸州老窖凭借国窖1573的强势崛起，一度与茅台、五粮液并肩 站上高端市场的金字塔尖。 然而，时代发展瞬息万变，在几次决策失误后，泸州老窖悄然掉队，不仅在高端赛道被五粮 液拉开身位，甚至连营收规模也被山西汾酒、洋河股份接连超越，昔日的"茅五泸"格局正加 速瓦解。 资本市场的估值重构更加触目惊心：2024年其股价重挫26.03%，在头部酒企中跌幅居首；若 将时间轴拉长至四年周期，其市值从2021年4000亿峰值跌至千亿量级，最高蒸发近七成；截 至2025年3月31日，其1909亿的市值规模尚不足五粮液一半，与茅台相比更显悬殊。 耐人寻味的是，其基本面数据似乎不算太差——2024年前三季度泸州老窖实现营收243亿 元、 ...