1月22日【港股Podcast】恆指、騰訊、理想汽車、阿里、泡泡瑪特、中國聯通 1、恆指：看多投資者表示市場將企穩上行，多頭蓄勢突破高點，持有牛證，收回價26380點。亦有投資者指出26666點存在較大阻力，可考慮部 署熊證。 Simon：大家好，歡迎收看今日港股回顧。首先關注恆指表現，1月22日恒指收盤報26629點。整體而言，以收盤價計變動幅度有限，指數繼續圍繞26600點 水平呈現橫盤震盪格局。市場上仍有部分投資者看好後市，認為當前水平具備繼續上行的潛力，因此持續買入近牛證，具體條款我們稍後分析。另有投資者 認為，26666點作為技術阻力位較為關鍵，因此在相應位置部署看空產品。總體來看，市場多空觀點並存，屬正常現象。從技術信號總結來看，目前賣出信 號略佔優勢，共出現8個賣出信號與6個買入信號，反映短期市場情緒可能偏謹慎。 支撐位方面，當前首要支撐位於26000點附近，若跌破則可能下探25700點。對於持有近牛證的投資者，需特別注意收回風險。若牛證收回價位於26000點以 上，風險相對較高。建議儘量選擇收回價在26000點以下，甚至25700點以下的產品，以提升安全邊際。市場波動期間，盤中價格可能暫態觸及 ...

Core Insights - The AI Fund West China Gain Hong Kong Stock Connect New Opportunities Mixed A (008861) reported a profit of 762,100 yuan for Q4 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0342 yuan [3] - The fund's net asset value growth rate for the reporting period was 4.58%, and the fund size reached 15.5946 million yuan by the end of Q4 [3] - The fund manager highlighted that the Hong Kong stock market experienced adjustments in Q4 due to fluctuating expectations of interest rate cuts and tariffs, with notable performance in the Hang Seng materials, finance, and energy sectors [3] Fund Performance - As of January 21, the fund's three-month cumulative net asset value growth rate was 9.77%, ranking 542 out of 1,286 comparable funds [4] - The fund's six-month cumulative net asset value growth rate was 22.31%, ranking 624 out of 1,286 comparable funds [4] - The fund's one-year cumulative net asset value growth rate was 58.35%, ranking 213 out of 1,286 comparable funds [4] - The fund's three-year cumulative net asset value growth rate was -5.88%, ranking 1,088 out of 1,286 comparable funds [4] Risk Metrics - The fund's three-year Sharpe ratio was 0.2164, ranking 1,022 out of 1,275 comparable funds [9] - The maximum drawdown over the past three years was 50.65%, ranking 1,201 out of 1,264 comparable funds [12] - The largest single-quarter drawdown occurred in Q1 2022, at 28.84% [12] Investment Strategy - The fund maintained an average stock position of 81.95% over the past three years, compared to a peer average of 72.57% [15] - The fund reached its highest stock position of 90.04% by the end of Q3 2025, with a lowest position of 72.27% in the first half of 2023 [15] - The fund's top ten holdings include major companies such as Ping An Insurance, China Life, Alibaba, and Tencent [19]

Market Overview - On January 22, A-shares experienced a collective adjustment with over 3,200 stocks in the market showing gains [1] - Major sectors that performed well included natural gas, commercial aerospace, military equipment, photovoltaic devices, steel, coal, cultivated diamonds, and chemical industries [1] - Conversely, sectors such as precious metals, photolithography machines, semiconductors, insurance, and batteries lagged behind [1] - The major indices closed with the CSI 500 index down 0.4%, the CSI 300 index down 0.5%, the ChiNext index down 0.4%, and the STAR Market 50 index down 0.2% [1] Index Performance - The CSI 300 index, which consists of 300 large-cap stocks from the A-share market, recorded a decline of 0.5% with a rolling P/E ratio of 14.2 times [3] - The CSI 500 index, comprising 500 stocks with good liquidity, fell by 0.4% and had a rolling P/E ratio of 17.3 times [3] - The ChiNext index, which includes 100 large-cap stocks from the ChiNext board, also decreased by 0.4% with a rolling P/E ratio of 42.2 times [4] - The STAR Market 50 index, made up of 50 large-cap stocks from the STAR Market, had not specified its performance data in the provided text [5] Hong Kong Market - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which tracks 50 large-cap and actively traded stocks listed in Hong Kong, saw a decline of 0.3% with a rolling P/E ratio of 10.6 times [6]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market has been experiencing a downward trend, with the index dropping to around 26,300 points after reaching 27,000 points [1][2] - The market sentiment remains cautious, and the index needs to stabilize around 26,400 points to avoid further declines, with a potential drop to 25,800 points if it fails to hold [2][3] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to monitor the distribution of warrants, particularly the heavy positions around 25,800 points, which is a critical support level [2][4] - The current trading range for the index is suggested to be between 25,800 and 27,500 points for investment deployment [2] Stock Analysis: Xiaomi Group (01810) - Xiaomi's stock has shown weakness, dropping to a low of 35.6 HKD, with concerns about its automotive safety impacting investor sentiment [6][7] - Despite previous strong performance, the stock has fallen below key support levels, leading to cautious investor behavior regarding long-term entry points [8] - Investors are considering options like call warrants with lower entry costs to mitigate risks while betting on potential rebounds [8][9] Stock Analysis: Semiconductor Industry (SMIC 00981) - SMIC has seen a decline in stock price, currently around 34 HKD, after a peak of 94 HKD, but investor interest remains strong for rebound opportunities [10][11] - New high-leverage products have been introduced to attract investors looking for higher returns in the semiconductor sector [11][13] Stock Analysis: Pop Mart (09992) - Pop Mart's stock has shown signs of recovery after management's first buyback in two years, indicating confidence in the company's future [15][16] - Investors are encouraged to consider call warrants as a way to capitalize on potential rebounds, with specific products highlighted for their favorable terms [16][24] Resource Sector Insights - The resource sector, particularly gold and silver, is gaining attention as prices reach historical highs, with recommendations for investing in related stocks or ETFs [19][20] - Investors are advised to consider leveraged products in the resource sector to maximize returns while managing capital [20] Domestic Consumption Sector - The domestic consumption sector is expected to benefit from ongoing policies promoting local brands, with companies like Li Ning and Midea being highlighted for potential investment [23][24] - Specific warrants for these companies are suggested as viable options for investors looking to capitalize on the domestic consumption trend [24][25]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline, with all three major indices dropping over 1%. The Hang Seng Index closed down 1.05% at 26,563.9 points, with a total trading volume of HKD 2,256.89 million [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.94% to 9,134.45 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 1.24% to 5,749.98 points [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Li Ning (02331) reached a new high, closing up 2.94% at HKD 21, contributing 2.21 points to the Hang Seng Index. Morgan Stanley forecasts moderate revenue growth for Li Ning by 2025, with net profit margins stabilizing at high single digits [2] - Other blue-chip stocks included Sinopec (00386) up 3.34% at HKD 4.95, and Mengniu Dairy (02319) up 2.78% at HKD 15.89. China Biologic Products (01177) fell 6.19% to HKD 6.52, negatively impacting the index [2] Sector Highlights - The aviation sector showed strong performance, with China Eastern Airlines (00670) rising 9.2% to HKD 5.7, and China Southern Airlines (01055) increasing 6.29% to HKD 5.91 [3] - Electric power equipment stocks also gained, with Dongfang Electric (01072) up 6.38% at HKD 27.66 [4] - Gold stocks were active due to rising market risk aversion, with Zhaojin Mining (01818) increasing 3.62% to HKD 37.82 [5] Earnings Forecasts - Companies with positive earnings forecasts included Qutoutiao (00917), which surged 38.78% to HKD 35, and TCL Electronics (01070), which rose 13.4% to HKD 11.17. TCL expects a net profit growth of 45% to 60% for 2025 [6] - China Taiping (00966) anticipates a profit increase of 215% to 225% for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025 [6] Notable Stock Movements - New World Development (00017) surged 16.28% to HKD 11.07, reaching a two-year high, driven by positive market sentiment [7] - UBTECH (09880) rose 8.63% to HKD 144.7 after signing a service agreement with Airbus for humanoid robots [8] - China International Marine Containers (01138) climbed 7.39% to HKD 12.94, supported by changes in global oil trade dynamics [9] - China Duty Free Group (01880) increased 6.65% to HKD 87.4, benefiting from strong growth in duty-free shopping in Hainan [10] - Cambridge Technology (06166) fell 12.2% to HKD 82.05, as its Q4 net profit forecast was below market expectations [11]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is based on a dual-layer selection process combining fundamental and technical analysis to identify outperforming stocks from an analyst-recommended stock pool[14][15] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Analyst Recommendation Pool**: Constructed using the following events: - Analyst upward earnings revisions - Analyst initial coverage - Analyst report titles indicating unexpected positive events[15] 2. **Dual-Layer Selection**: - **Fundamental Analysis**: Stocks with strong fundamental support are selected - **Technical Analysis**: Stocks with technical resonance are chosen 3. **Backtesting**: - Backtesting period: 2010-01-01 to 2025-12-31 - Full-investment strategy considering transaction costs[15] - **Formula**: Not explicitly provided in the report - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong performance with significant annualized returns and excess returns over the Hang Seng Index[15] 2. Model Name: Stable New High Stock Screening - **Model Construction Idea**: The model leverages momentum and trend-following strategies, focusing on stocks that have recently reached 250-day highs and exhibit stable price paths[20][22] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **250-Day High Distance Calculation**: - Formula: $ 250 \text{ Day High Distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $ - $\text{Close}_{t}$: Latest closing price - $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$: Maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days - If the latest closing price reaches a new high, the distance is 0; otherwise, it is a positive value indicating the fallback percentage[22] 2. **Screening Criteria**: - Stocks must meet the following conditions: - Analyst attention: At least 5 "Buy" or "Overweight" ratings in the past 6 months - Relative strength: Top 20% in 250-day price change within the sample pool - Price stability: Evaluated using metrics like price path smoothness and 250-day high distance averages over the past 120 days - Trend continuation: Top 50 stocks based on the 5-day average of 250-day high distance[23] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies stocks with strong momentum and stable trends, aligning with established momentum theories[20][22] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio - **Annualized Return**: 19.08% - **Excess Return over Hang Seng Index**: 18.06% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 23.73% - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 1.19 - **Tracking Error**: 14.60% - **Return-to-Drawdown Ratio**: 0.76[19] 2. Stable New High Stock Screening - **Sector Distribution**: - Cyclical: 13 stocks - Technology: 10 stocks - Financials: 5 stocks - Manufacturing: 4 stocks - Consumer: 4 stocks[22][23] - **Example Stocks**: - **China Eastern Airlines**: 250-day high distance: 6.6%, 250-day return: 116.6% - **Baidu Group-SW**: 250-day high distance: 0.4%, 250-day return: 87.4% - **China Gold International**: 250-day high distance: 0.0%, 250-day return: 304.4%[28] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: 250-Day High Distance - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the relative distance of the latest closing price from the 250-day high to capture momentum and trend-following signals[22] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ 250 \text{ Day High Distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $ - $\text{Close}_{t}$: Latest closing price - $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$: Maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days - Interpretation: - A value of 0 indicates the stock is at its 250-day high - Positive values indicate the percentage fallback from the high[22] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures momentum and is supported by academic research and practical applications in trend-following strategies[20][22] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. 250-Day High Distance Factor - **Example Stocks**: - **China Eastern Airlines**: 250-day high distance: 6.6%, 250-day return: 116.6% - **Baidu Group-SW**: 250-day high distance: 0.4%, 250-day return: 87.4% - **China Gold International**: 250-day high distance: 0.0%, 250-day return: 304.4%[28]

Report Title - 2026 Annual Hong Kong Stock Fund Investment Strategy [5] 1. 2025 Review of the Hong Kong Stock Market 1.1 Index Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose 27.77% in 2025, with monthly fluctuations including a 13.43% increase in February and a 4.33% decrease in April [11]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 23.45% in 2025, with significant gains in February (17.88%) and September (13.95%) [11]. - Among industries, the raw materials industry had the highest annual increase of 161.34%, followed by the healthcare industry at 57.24% [11]. 1.2 Capital Flows - The report presents data on southbound capital inflows by year and week in 2025, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [14]. 1.3 Stock Performance - Top 10 net - bought stocks through the Hong Kong Stock Connect in 2025 include Alibaba - W (177.87 billion), Meituan - W (73.30 billion), etc., while top 10 net - sold stocks include Sunny Optical Technology Group Co., Ltd. (- 6.06 billion) [16]. 2. Technology Index - Type Hong Kong Stock Funds 2.1 Fund Performance - In 2025, the annual returns of technology - themed Hong Kong stock funds varied. For example, Invesco Great Wall CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF had an annual return of 30.63%, while China Southern Asset Management Co., Ltd. Hang Seng Tech Index A had an annual return of 17.75% [24][26]. 2.2 Index Details - Different technology indices such as CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology, Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology, etc., have different selection methods, sample spaces, and weighting methods. For example, CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology selects 50 components from the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Composite Index [30]. 2.3 Industry Allocation and Valuation - Technology indices have different industry allocations, with software + internet accounting for a relatively high proportion. For example, the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology index has a software + internet allocation of 43% [33]. - The PE - TTM and historical percentile valuations of technology indices are provided. For example, the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology index has a PE - TTM of 24.53 and a historical percentile of 47.12% [38]. 3. Internet Index - Type Hong Kong Stock Funds 3.1 Fund Performance - Internet - themed Hong Kong stock funds also showed different performance in 2025. For example, E Fund CSI Overseas China Internet 50 ETF had an annual return of 28.44%, while China Asset Management Co., Ltd. Hang Seng Internet Technology Industry ETF had an annual return of 24.51% [42]. 3.2 Index Details - Internet indices have different sample spaces and selection methods. For example, the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet index selects 30 components from the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Composite Index [45]. 3.3 Industry Comparison and Valuation - Internet indices have different industry allocations, with media and retail trade accounting for a relatively high proportion. For example, the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet index has a media allocation of 30.11% [46]. - The PE - TTM and historical percentile valuations of internet indices are presented. For example, the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet index has a PE - TTM of 24.43 and a historical percentile of 24.61% [50]. 4. Hong Kong Stock Dividend Index - Type Funds 4.1 Fund Performance - Dividend - themed Hong Kong stock funds had different returns in 2025. For example, GF CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non - Bank Financial Theme ETF had an annual return of 45.82%, while China Southern Asset Management Co., Ltd. Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect High - Dividend - Yield ETF had an annual return of 22.27% [58]. 4.2 Index Details - Dividend indices have different selection methods and industry allocations. For example, the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High - Dividend index has a bank allocation of 29.40% [62]. 4.3 Dividend Yield and Valuation - The dividend yields of dividend indices are provided. For example, the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect China Central - State - Owned Enterprises Dividend index has a dividend yield of 6.94% [65]. 5. Actively Managed Hong Kong Stock Funds 5.1 Fund Performance - Actively managed Hong Kong stock funds showed different performance in 2025. For example, China Southern Hong Kong Stock Connect Advantage Enterprises A had an annual return of 51.75%, while Great Wall Hong Kong Stock Connect Value Selective Multi - Strategy A had an annual return of 31.46% [78]. 5.2 Investment Style and Industry Allocation - Different fund managers have different investment styles and industry allocations. For example, the investment style of China Southern's fund manager Luai focuses on technology and resources, with a high allocation to industries such as non - ferrous metals and media [85].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has been underperforming compared to the A-share market since Q4 2025, with liquidity issues and a lack of strong rebounds in key sectors like innovative drugs and technology being significant factors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a correction trend since Q4 2025, with previously leading sectors like innovative drugs and technology struggling to rebound [1]. - By the end of last year, the Hang Seng Innovation Drug Index experienced a pullback, resulting in a lack of performance from related thematic funds, with only one fund, Huatai-PineBridge Hong Kong Advantage Selection, rising over 112% [2]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index also faced a high-level pullback, dropping approximately 15% in a single quarter, leading to an overall annual increase of only about 20% [2]. Group 2: Liquidity Issues - Liquidity has been identified as a core factor suppressing Hong Kong stock valuations, with many fundamentally strong stocks experiencing significant price drops due to low trading volumes [1][4]. - In 2025, the total fundraising amount from IPOs in Hong Kong reached approximately HKD 280 billion, with predictions of over HKD 300 billion in 2026, posing a challenge to market liquidity [4]. - The net inflow of southbound funds significantly slowed in December, with only HKD 23 billion entering the market, which is substantially lower than previous months [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Fund managers emphasize the importance of prioritizing "win rate over odds" in Hong Kong stock investments, advocating for value investing and diversification to mitigate liquidity risks [7][8]. - Investors are advised to focus on the fundamentals and quality of companies, as historical integrity issues can significantly impact valuations [8]. - The current trend of RMB appreciation may provide a buffer against liquidity concerns, potentially attracting more capital into the Hong Kong market [6]. Group 4: Sector Focus - Fund managers are increasingly optimistic about the value proposition of Hong Kong stocks, particularly in technology and high-end manufacturing sectors, which are seen as having significant growth potential [9][10]. - There is a growing interest in consumer sectors, particularly in high-quality cultural products and competitive tea beverage companies, which are expected to achieve stable long-term growth [10].

免责声明： 直接在香港持牌券商处开立账户参与港股交易的内地个人投资者，需满足香港证监会及相关机构的规 定：一是提供有效身份证明文件，包括内地居民身份证、港澳通行证或护照；二是提供地址证明，如最 近三个月内的银行对账单、水电费缴费凭证等，以验证常住地址的真实性；三是通过券商的风险评估， 确认自身风险承受能力适合参与港股交易；四是通过合法外汇渠道办理资金划转，例如凭个人身份证在 银行办理购汇（年度额度为等值5万美元），再将资金汇入香港券商指定账户，需严格遵守外汇管理规 定。 对港股市场规则的认知是参与交易的必要前提，这也是投资者需具备的隐性条件。港股实行T+0交易制 度，个股无涨跌幅限制，交易时间为交易日9:30-12:00及13:00-16:00，结算采用T+2交收模式；此外，港 股的税费结构（如印花税、佣金）与A股存在差异，港币与人民币的汇率波动也会直接影响投资收益。 投资者需充分熟悉这些规则，避免因认知不足导致操作失误。 风险承受能力的适配性是投资港股不可忽视的条件。港股市场受国际宏观经济形势、地缘政治事件、汇 率变动等因素影响较大，价格波动幅度通常高于A股；部分港股上市公司的信息披露标准、财务报告准 则与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is decreasing, which is putting pressure on Hong Kong stocks. The market is expected to seek a balance between external liquidity pressures and internal policy support [1] Group 1: Sector Recommendations - The technology sector remains a long-term investment focus, with potential for upward movement due to multiple favorable factors such as price increases in the supply chain, mergers and acquisitions, and domestic substitution [1] - The consumer sector is likely to continue benefiting from policy support, and current valuations are relatively low, indicating significant medium to long-term upside potential [1] - The metals sector is influenced by changes in international geopolitical dynamics [1]