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瑞达期货纯苯产业日报-20250818
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 09:42
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the situation of supply exceeding demand for domestic pure benzene is expected to continue, putting pressure on prices; in the long - term, the new production capacity of pure benzene downstream in August is higher than that of pure benzene, and the supply - demand contradiction may improve. The supply - demand situation of crude oil continues to be supply - dominant, and international oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Technically, BZ2603 should pay attention to the support around 6100 and the resistance around 6300 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The main closing price of pure benzene is 6186 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the main settlement price is 6171 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan. The main trading volume is 5030 lots, up 759 lots; the main open interest is 14110 lots, down 588 lots [2] Spot Market - The mainstream prices of pure benzene in East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China are 6100 - 6150 yuan/ton, 6130 - 6120 yuan/ton respectively, with different changes. The mainstream prices of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi are 6250 yuan/ton (down 75 yuan) and 6050 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively. The spot price of pure benzene in South Korea's FOB middle price is 734 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar; the CIF middle price in China is 748.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 67.97 US dollars/barrel, down 0.61 US dollars; the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan is 572.5 US dollars/ton, up 1.5 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 78.14%, up 0.13%; the weekly output is 44.52 tons, down 0.08 tons. The port inventory of pure benzene is 14.6 tons, down 1.7 tons; the production cost is 5327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan; the production profit is 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene is 78.18%, up 0.45%; the capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid are 95.72% (up 6.41%), 78.54% (down 0.46%), 69.24% (down 0.1%), and 64.3% (up 2%) respectively [2] Industry News - From August 8th to 14th, the profit of PetroChina's benzene was 689 yuan/ton, up 113 yuan/ton from last week. As of August 18th, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene ports in Jiangsu was 14.4 tons, down 1.37% from the previous period [2]
LPG早报-20250815
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 08:51
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The basis is strong, the disk valuation is low, and there is no fundamental driving force. The overall situation is expected to be mainly volatile [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Spot Market - The center of the spot price has moved down, and the cheapest deliverable is the South China civil gas at 4365 on Thursday. The PG disk strengthened, and the 09 - 10 spread was -450 (+15). The US - Far East arbitrage window is closed [1] - The basis strengthened to 606 (+161), the monthly reverse spread continued to strengthen, the 9 - 10 spread was -478 (-39), and the warehouse receipt registration volume was 10179 lots (+420) [1] International Market - The international market fundamentals are loose. FEI and CP are oscillating, and MB is weakening. The oil - gas price ratio in North Asia and the Middle East has decreased, while that in North America has slightly increased [1] - The internal - external price difference has dropped significantly. PG - CP is 9.3 (-21); PG - FEI is -2.5 (-16). The US - Asia arbitrage window is open [1] - The freight from the US Gulf to Japan is 148 (+16), and that from the Middle East to the Far East is 85 (+11). The waiting time for VLGCs at the Panama Canal has increased, but it is expected to decline next [1] Industrial Profit - The FEI - MOPJ has significantly narrowed to -38 (+15), and the naphtha crack spread has strengthened. The PDH spot profit has weakened, while the paper profit has continued to improve [1] - The production gross profit of alkylated oil has decreased. The MTBE gas fractionation etherification gross profit has slightly increased, and the isomerization etherification gross profit has slightly decreased [1] Fundamental Data - The unloading port volume has increased, the port inventory has risen, the factory inventory has decreased by 0.51%, and the commodity volume has increased by 0.57% [1] - The PDH operating rate is 73.84% (+1.21 pct). Tianjin Bohua has resumed operation, Jiangsu Ruiheng has restarted, but Binhua has stopped due to a fault for an expected 20 days. Wanda Tianhong is expected to restart next week [1]
瑞达期货纯苯产业日报-20250814
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 10:48
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Supply of pure benzene is expected to increase on a month - on - month basis, but the small number of imported cargo arrivals may partially offset the domestic increase. Consumption of pure benzene is likely to rise on a month - on - month basis as the overhaul devices of the five major downstream industries of pure benzene restart intensively. In the long - term, there is an improving trend in the supply - demand of pure benzene, and the spot supply - demand gap may gradually shrink. Recently, international oil prices are weakly volatile, and technically, BZ2603 should focus on the support around 6100 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of pure benzene was 6179 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan; the settlement price was 6210 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The trading volume was 2318 lots, and the open interest was 14833 lots. The mainstream prices of pure benzene in different domestic markets varied, with some rising and some falling [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of pure benzene in South Korea's FOB intermediate price was 734 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars; the CFR intermediate price in China was 750.5 dollars/ton, down 4 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 66.97 dollars/barrel, down 0.64 dollars; the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan was 563.5 dollars/ton, down 6.5 dollars [2]. Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 78.14%, up 0.13 percentage points; the weekly output was 44.6 tons, up 1.03 tons. The port inventory was 16.3 tons, down 0.7 tons. The production cost was 5327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan; the production profit was 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of downstream products of pure benzene varied. For example, the operating rate of styrene was 77.73%, down 1.19 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam was 95.72%, up 6.41 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From August 1st to 7th, the profit of PetroChina's benzene was 576 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan/ton compared with last week. As of August 11th, the commercial inventory of pure benzene ports in Jiangsu was 14.6 tons, down 10.43% from the previous period. BZ2603 fell 1.14% to close at 6179 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of petroleum benzene increased by 0.21% to 78.79%, while that of hydrogenated benzene decreased by 3.29% to 59.66%. The weighted operating rate of downstream products of pure benzene decreased by 1.22% to 76.74%. The inventory of pure benzene in East China ports decreased by 10.43% to 14.6 tons [2].
终端缓慢恢复,供应端压力较大
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 07:10
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The suspension of the 24% tariff between China and the US for 90 days is a macro - level positive, but the market has returned to fundamental trading after a slight boost. PE supply is recovering with the restart of previously shut - down plants and new capacity from Jilin Petrochemical, while PP has low current overall开工率 but future supply pressure is high with the upcoming commissioning of Ningbo Daxie Petrochemical's new PP plant. Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polyolefins are accumulating, cost support is weak, and downstream demand is gradually transitioning to the peak season [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L main contract closed at 7313 yuan/ton (-16), and the PP main contract closed at 7107 yuan/ton (+16). LL North China spot was 7270 yuan/ton (+20), LL East China spot was 7300 yuan/ton (+20), and PP East China spot was 7040 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was - 43 yuan/ton (+36), LL East China basis was - 13 yuan/ton (+36), and PP East China basis was - 67 yuan/ton (-16) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate was 84.1% (+3.0%), and PP operating rate was 77.3% (+0.4%). PE oil - based production profit was 404.4 yuan/ton (+35.8), PP oil - based production profit was - 75.6 yuan/ton (+35.8), and PDH - based PP production profit was 174.2 yuan/ton (-50.9) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Not elaborated on in the provided content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit was - 78.8 yuan/ton (-4.7), PP import profit was - 513.4 yuan/ton (-4.8), and PP export profit was 31.2 US dollars/ton (+0.6) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 13.1% (+0.4%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 49.3% (+0.6%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 41.1% (+0.0%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 60.8% (+0.0%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Not elaborated on in the provided content Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - delivery spread: 09 - 01 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: None [3]
纯苯苯乙烯日报:纯苯及苯乙烯港口库存同时回落-20250812
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 07:11
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - Pure benzene port inventory has decreased again due to a slowdown in Chinese arrivals and upcoming Korean aromatics maintenance in August - September, with limited subsequent inventory accumulation but still existing inventory pressure. For styrene, port inventory has entered a seasonal decline cycle, but downstream demand improvement is limited [3] Summary by Directory 1. Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads of Pure Benzene and EB - Pure benzene: The main basis is - 115 yuan/ton (- 26), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is 0 yuan/ton (+ 5). Near - month BZ paper cargo - distal BZ2603 spread and BZ2603 - BZ2605 inter - period spread are recommended for reverse arbitrage when high [1][4] - Styrene: The main basis is 55 yuan/ton (- 5), and the EB2509 - 2510 inter - period spread is recommended for reverse arbitrage when high [1][4] 2. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: CFR China processing fee is 177 dollars/ton (- 3), FOB Korea processing fee is 163 dollars/ton (- 4), and the US - Korea spread is 83.8 dollars/ton (+ 4) [1] - Styrene: Non - integrated production profit is - 306 yuan/ton (+ 8), expected to gradually compress, and the EB - BZ spread is recommended to be shorted when high [1][4] 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: Port inventory is 14.60 tons (- 1.70), and the operating rate is not provided in the given text [1] - Styrene: East China port inventory is 148,800 tons (- 10,200), East China commercial inventory is 69,500 tons (+ 3,000), and the operating rate is 77.7% (- 1.2) [1] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS: Production profit is 218 yuan/ton (- 10), and the operating rate is 43.67% (- 10.58) - PS: Production profit is - 52 yuan/ton (- 30), and the operating rate is 55.00% (+ 1.70) - ABS: Production profit is 100 yuan/ton (- 23), and the operating rate is 71.10% (+ 5.20) [2] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam: Production profit is - 1715 yuan/ton (- 25), and the operating rate is 88.41% (- 1.79) - Phenol - acetone: Production profit is - 672 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the operating rate is 77.00% (+ 4.00) - Aniline: Production profit is 101 yuan/ton (+ 261), and the operating rate is 73.46% (- 0.48) - Adipic acid: Production profit is - 1504 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the operating rate is 54.40% (- 10.40) [1]
LPG早报-20250812
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 01:05
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core View of the Report - The overall LPG market is expected to fluctuate as the basis is strong, the futures valuation is low, and there is no obvious fundamental driver [1] 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Spot Prices**: On August 11, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, and Shandong LPG were 4360, 4401, and 4490 respectively, with daily changes of -20, -2, and -30. The cheapest deliverable was South China civil LPG at 4360 [1] - **International Market Prices**: Propane CFR South China was 555, propane CIF Japan was 519, and MB propane spot was 67. CP forecast contract price was 520, with a daily change of -2 [1] - **Other Product Prices**: Shandong ether - post carbon four was 4880, Shandong alkylated oil was 7830, paper import profit was -232, and the main basis was 561, with a daily change of -45 [1] Market Trends - **Futures Market**: The PG futures market showed a mixed trend. The futures price strengthened, the monthly spread fluctuated, and the 09 - 10 spread was -474 (+4). The basis strengthened to 606 (+161), and the 9 - 10 monthly spread was -478 (-39). The number of registered warehouse receipts was 10179 lots (+420) [1] - **International Market**: The international market fundamentals were loose. FEI and CP fluctuated, and MB weakened. North - Asia and Middle - East oil - gas price ratios declined, while the North - American oil - gas price ratio slightly increased. The internal - external price difference decreased significantly. The US - Asia arbitrage window opened [1] Weekly Outlook - **Supply and Demand**: Unloading port volume increased, port inventory rose, factory inventory decreased by 0.51%, and the commercial volume increased by 0.57%. PDH operating rate was 73.84% (+1.21pct), with some plants starting, restarting, or shutting down [1] - **Profitability**: PDH spot profit weakened, paper profit continued to improve. Alkylated oil production gross profit decreased. MTBE gas - fractionation etherification gross profit increased slightly, and isomerization etherification gross profit decreased slightly [1] - **Shipping and Costs**: VLGCs' waiting time at the Panama Canal increased, expected to decline later. Freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and the Middle - East to the Far - East increased. FEI - MOPJ narrowed significantly, and the naphtha crack spread strengthened [1]
甲醇日报:港口再度加速累库-20250807
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 05:22
Group 1: Report's Core View - The port accelerated inventory accumulation this week. Overseas methanol production remained at a high level, increasing the pressure of arrivals in August. The Xingxing MTO device in the port area started a one - month maintenance at the end of July. In the inland area, there will still be some maintenance in the northwest in August, and the production will not fully recover until late August. The traditional downstream demand showed certain resilience, and the inventory of inland methanol factories decreased further. Overall, the inland market was stronger than the port market [3] Group 2: Market Data Inland Market - Q5500 Ordos thermal coal was 470 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia was 695 yuan/ton (+25). The inland methanol prices varied by region: Inner Mongolia North Line was 2110 yuan/ton (+25), Inner Mongolia South Line was 2100 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shandong Linyi was 2383 yuan/ton (+10), Henan was 2250 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Hebei was 2275 yuan/ton (+25). The inland factory inventory was 293,688 tons (-30,832), and the northwest factory inventory was 185,500 tons (-30,500). The inland factory's pending orders were 240,800 tons (+10,075), and the northwest factory's pending orders were 122,800 tons (+10,800) [1] Port Market - The methanol price in Taicang was 2388 yuan/ton (+15), the basis was - 8 yuan/ton (+16), CFR China was 268 US dollars/ton (+1), and the import price difference in East China was 13 yuan/ton (-3). The port inventory increased, with the total port inventory at 925,480 tons (+117,080), Jiangsu port inventory at 498,000 tons (+79,000), Zhejiang port inventory at 144,000 tons (-9000), and Guangdong port inventory at 170,000 tons (+15,000). The downstream MTO operating rate was 85.27% (+0.32%) [2] Regional Price Differences - There were various regional price differences, such as the Lubei - Northwest - 280 price difference of - 45 yuan/ton (-25), the Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 price difference of - 272 yuan/ton (-10), etc [2] Group 3: Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - period: Do reverse arbitrage when the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread is high - Cross - variety: Shrink the PP2601 - 3MA2601 spread when it is high [4] Group 4: Report Directory Summary Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report included multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spread, such as the methanol Taicang basis and the main contract, and the spreads between different methanol futures contracts [7][22][24] Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures related to production profit (e.g., Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit), MTO profit (e.g., East China MTO profit), and import profit (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China import price difference) were presented [26][34] Methanol Production and Inventory - Figures showed methanol port inventory, MTO/P operating rate, inland factory inventory, and China's methanol operating rate [36][38] Regional Price Differences - Figures presented various regional price differences, such as Lubei - Northwest, East China - Inner Mongolia, etc [44][48][51] Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures showed the production profits of traditional downstream products like Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE, and Henan dimethyl ether [52][60]
苯乙烯累库加速,苯乙烯生产利润压缩
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-03 08:57
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no mention of the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The rate of inventory accumulation of pure benzene at ports has slowed down, but the high - inventory pressure persists. The support from oil products for aromatics is limited, and the BZN processing fee has rebounded and then declined. Chinese pure benzene processing fee has rebounded due to short - term downstream demand resilience, but the sustainability of high styrene开工 is questionable [3]. - Styrene port inventory has risen rapidly. In July, China's EB maintained high operation, and overseas styrene operation also increased. The export window closed, leading to a rapid decline in styrene basis and production profit. The low operation of PS and ABS has dragged down styrene demand [4]. - For pure benzene, new domestic production capacity is being released intensively, and the inventory problem persists. The basis of port spot for the 2603 contract remains weak. For styrene, it is necessary to wait for further compression of production profit and reduction of production for re - balancing [3][5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Pure Benzene Fundamental Situation - In 2025, there are multiple pure benzene production capacity plans, with a planned production capacity of 105 million tons/year to be put into operation in the third quarter, with a production growth rate of about 4.1%. The new production capacity of Yulong will impact the Shandong region [14][15]. Pure Benzene Supply and Inventory - The basis of pure benzene spot to the BZ2603 futures contract and the basis of spot to the second - month paper cargo both reflect high inventory pressure. Overseas, the support from oil products for aromatics is limited, and the BZN processing fee has rebounded and then declined. Overseas styrene operation recovery has boosted overseas pure benzene demand, and the pressure of pure benzene arriving at Chinese ports has not further increased, but the volume from South Korea to China continues [23]. Chinese Pure Benzene Downstream Demand - The high operation of styrene has boosted pure benzene demand, but the sustainability of high styrene operation is questionable. The operation of CPL has peaked, and the operation of its downstream nylon filament is still low. The operation of phenol - acetone has declined, while the operation of aniline has rebounded at the bottom [3][31][35]. Chinese Styrene Fundamental Situation EB Domestic New Production Capacity - In 2025, there are new styrene production capacity plans, including Yulong Refining and Chemical Phase I, Shandong Zhongtai Chemical (Jingbo), Jilin Petrochemical, and Guangxi Petrochemical. Jingbo has carried out trial production [40]. Chinese EB Weekly Operation and Monthly Maintenance Forecast - In July, Chinese styrene maintenance was limited, and high operation continued. There is a maintenance plan for Zhenhai Lyondell in mid - September [48]. EB Basis, Production Profit, Operation Rate, and Inventory - The basis of EB spot to the 09 - month contract has declined significantly. In July, high operation at home and abroad led to a closed export window, rapid increase in port and factory inventory, and a rapid decline in basis and production profit [58]. Overseas Styrene Operation and Cross - Border Price Difference - In July, overseas styrene maintenance recovered, driving up overseas pure benzene demand and reducing the volume of pure benzene from South Korea to China. However, the increase in overseas styrene supply has led to a decline in China's export demand and a rapid weakening of the regional price difference [64][65]. Chinese Styrene Downstream Situation Styrene Downstream Operation Rate - The operation rates of PS and ABS are still low, dragging down styrene demand. The operation of EPS has no bright spots compared with the same period [89]. Styrene Downstream Inventory and Production Profit - The inventory pressure of PS has eased, but the inventory pressure of ABS still exists. The inventory pressure of EPS has increased. Attention should be paid to the performance of downstream industries during the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" [89].
LPG早报-20250730
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 04:05
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic LPG market is expected to continue its narrow - range oscillatory trend. International LPG prices are weak, and the increase in domestic chemical demand is offset by the low combustion demand [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Price Data - On July 29, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, Shandong ether - after carbon four, and Shandong alkylated oil were 4480, 4413, 4413, 4600, and 550 respectively. The daily changes were 0, 0, 0, - 20, and 1 respectively [1] 3.2 Market Conditions - The PG futures market is oscillating. The international LPG price is weak, and the significant increase in warehouse receipts suppresses the market. The domestic chemical demand is increasing, but the low combustion demand restricts the upward movement. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4413 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 Spread and Arbitrage - The basis has weakened to 370 (- 63). The inter - month reverse spread continues to strengthen. The 08 - 09 spread is 2, and the 08 - 10 spread is - 398. The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window is closed [1] 3.4 Production Profit - FEI and CP have risen, PP has risen significantly, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP has deteriorated. The CP production cost is lower than that of FEI. PDH profit has improved, and MTBE export profit has declined [1] 3.5 Inventory and Supply - The arrival volume has decreased significantly. Due to typhoons, ships in South China are delayed, and port inventories have decreased. Factory inventories have slightly increased. The commodity volume has decreased by 0.53% [1] 3.6 Demand - Chemical demand is strong. PDH operating rate has increased significantly to 73.13% (+ 2.01 pct). Alkylation operating rate has increased, and MTBE operating load has risen [1]
化工日报:基差小幅上涨-20250730
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 02:55
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - On the futures and spot market, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,467 yuan/ton (up 31 yuan/ton or 0.70% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,518 yuan/ton (up 19 yuan/ton or 0.42% from the previous trading day), and the basis of EG East China spot (based on the 2509 contract) was 62 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton month-on-month). On Tuesday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated and rose at a low level, with average on-site discussions and a slight increase in the basis [1]. - In terms of production profit, the production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$43/ton (down $9/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was 84 yuan/ton (down 83 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. - Regarding inventory, according to data released by CCF every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 521,000 tons (down 12,000 tons month-on-month); according to data released by Longzhong every Thursday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 475,000 tons (down 19,000 tons month-on-month). The actual arrival volume at the main ports last week was 108,000 tons, lower than the planned value, and the weekly port inventory decreased slightly. The planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week is 156,000 tons, with concentrated arrivals. Attention should be paid to the actual arrivals [1]. - In terms of the overall fundamental supply-demand logic, on the supply side, domestically, the load of ethylene glycol syngas production has returned to a high level and can be further increased under favorable conditions. Some EO-EG co-production plants in non-coal areas have plans to switch from EO to EG, and the overall load is moderately high. Overseas, the Sharq series of plants in Saudi Arabia have restarted, and in an ideal state, the supply of ocean freight will gradually return to normal, with an expected increase in imports. On the demand side, due to the price increase effect, the terminal has replenished inventory intensively, and the inventory pressure of filament has been greatly relieved. It is expected that the polyester load will remain strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the order connection in August. Overall, there will be concentrated arrivals of foreign vessels in late July, and there is pressure on the fundamentals to weaken in August under high supply [2]. - For the strategy, the unilateral strategy is neutral. Attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment, especially the changes in the Sino-US tariff policy negotiation from July 27th to July 30th and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting. There are no cross-period or cross-variety strategies [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,467 yuan/ton (up 31 yuan/ton or 0.70% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,518 yuan/ton (up 19 yuan/ton or 0.42% from the previous trading day), and the basis of EG East China spot (based on the 2509 contract) was 62 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$43/ton (down $9/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was 84 yuan/ton (down 83 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. International Spread - No specific data or analysis provided in the given text. Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - Due to the price increase effect, the terminal has replenished inventory intensively, and the inventory pressure of filament has been greatly relieved. It is expected that the polyester load will remain strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the order connection in August [2]. Inventory Data - According to data released by CCF every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 521,000 tons (down 12,000 tons month-on-month); according to data released by Longzhong every Thursday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 475,000 tons (down 19,000 tons month-on-month). The actual arrival volume at the main ports last week was 108,000 tons, lower than the planned value, and the weekly port inventory decreased slightly. The planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week is 156,000 tons, with concentrated arrivals. Attention should be paid to the actual arrivals [1].