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LPG早报-20251205
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-05 01:41
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The PG futures price declined. The basis was -43 (-57), and the spread between January and February contracts was 109 (-19). Domestic civil LPG prices decreased, the spread between propane and civil LPG narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts was 4561 (-54). [1] - The prices of overseas paper goods decreased, the monthly spread strengthened, the change in the oil - gas price ratio between North Asia and North America was small. The domestic - overseas PG - CP spread was 126 (-2); PG - FEI was 114 (+3). The discounts for East China arrival, North America, and AFEI departure remained flat, the Middle East supply was tight with a discount of 35 US dollars (+13). Freight rates decreased slightly. [1] - The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -55 (+11). The profit of propylene production from PDH in Shandong slightly recovered, the alkylation unit slightly improved but was still poor, the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit was still good. [1] - The arrival volume increased, the external release decreased, factory inventories slightly increased, and port inventories increased. The PDH operating rate was 69.64% (-2.1), and the second - phase PDH of Dongguan Juzhengyuan was expected to restart next week. [1] - Overall, the domestic chemical sector was relatively strong, and civil demand increased, but the arrival volume was expected to be high in December; the Middle East supply was tight, but the market may tend to wait and see as the CP official price was approaching. Attention should also be paid to the weather and oil prices. [1] 3) Summary According to Related Data Daily Changes - On Thursday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4411 (+0), in Shandong was 4480 (+0), and in South China was 4530 (+0). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4460 (-20). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 101 (-21), and the spread between January and February contracts was 79 (-17). [1] - As of 15:00, FEI was 517 (+10) and CP was 502 (+3) US dollars per ton. [1] Weekly View - The PG futures price declined, the domestic civil LPG price decreased, the difference between propane and civil LPG narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased. [1] - Overseas paper goods prices declined, the monthly spread strengthened, the change in the oil - gas price ratio between North Asia and North America was small, and the domestic - overseas spreads changed. The discounts and freight rates had corresponding changes. [1] - The profit of some chemical production units changed, the arrival volume increased, the external release decreased, inventories increased, and the PDH operating rate decreased. [1] - The domestic chemical sector was relatively strong, civil demand increased, but the arrival volume was expected to be high in December, and the market may wait and see as the CP official price was approaching. Attention should be paid to the weather and oil prices. [1]
苯乙烯基差再度小幅走强
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-04 01:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas gasoline supply is gradually recovering, leading to significant short - term arrival pressure on pure benzene, with an accelerated accumulation rate of port inventory. Downstream operations remain at a low level during the off - season. Styrene is under maintenance with low load, and CPL operation is further declining at a low level. Although the operations of phenol, aniline, and adipic acid have slightly increased, terminal demand is still weak [3]. - The port basis of styrene continues to strengthen slightly, but the port inventory does not continue to decline, and there is still arrival pressure. The procurement by downstream enterprises drives the basis to strengthen. Attention should be paid to their enthusiasm for holding goods during the off - season. Styrene is still in the low - operation stage of maintenance, and the resumption plan is postponed. However, the downstream operation during the off - season is still low. The operation of EPS with obvious seasonality continues to decline, the operation of PS rebounds but there is still inventory pressure, and the finished - product inventory of ABS still has pressure while the operation remains at a low level [3]. 3. Summary of Each Directory I. Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread of Pure Benzene and EB - Pure benzene: The main basis of pure benzene is - 116 yuan/ton (+3), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 155 yuan/ton (- 15 yuan/ton) [1]. - Styrene: The main basis of styrene is 115 yuan/ton (+64 yuan/ton) [1]. II. Production Profit and Domestic - Foreign Spread of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The processing fee of pure benzene CFR China is 102 dollars/ton (+0 dollars/ton), the processing fee of pure benzene FOB South Korea is 92 dollars/ton (+0 dollars/ton), and the price difference between the US and South Korea is 184.9 dollars/ton (+15.1 dollars/ton). The production profit of downstream products varies, such as - 550 yuan/ton (+85) for caprolactam, - 827 yuan/ton (- 225) for phenol - acetone, 753 yuan/ton (+254) for aniline, and - 1218 yuan/ton (+34) for adipic acid [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit of styrene is - 67 yuan/ton (+94 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress. The import profit and other relevant spreads are presented in the report [1][34]. III. Inventory and Operating Rate of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory of pure benzene is 22.40 tons (+6.00 tons), and the operating rate of downstream products shows different changes, with the caprolactam operating rate at 86.68% (- 1.54%), the phenol operating rate at 81.00% (+2.00%), the aniline operating rate at 77.19% (+1.51%), and the adipic acid operating rate at 59.40% (+3.90%) [1]. - Styrene: The East China port inventory of styrene is 160,600 tons (- 3,600 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 96,400 tons (+2,200 tons), and the operating rate is 67.3% (- 1.7%) [1]. IV. Operating Rate and Production Profit of Styrene Downstream Products - EPS: The production profit is 17 yuan/ton (+16 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 54.75% (- 1.52%) [2]. - PS: The production profit is - 83 yuan/ton (+16 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 57.60% (+1.70%) [2]. - ABS: The production profit is - 644 yuan/ton (- 44 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 71.20% (- 1.20%) [2]. V. Operating Rate and Production Profit of Pure Benzene Downstream Products The production profit and operating rate data of caprolactam, phenol - acetone, aniline, and adipic acid are as mentioned above in the production profit and inventory and operating rate parts [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: None. - Basis and Inter - period: Conduct long inter - period spread trading for EB2601 - EB2602 at low prices. - Cross - variety: Expand the spread of EB2601 - BZ2603 at low prices [4].
LPG早报-20251204
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-04 01:35
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The PG futures price has declined, with a decrease in the basis and a change in the 01 - 02 spread. Domestic civil gas prices have fallen, and the cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas with a shrinking propane - civil gas price difference. Warehouse receipts have decreased. The overseas paper - cargo prices have dropped, and the spread has strengthened. The price ratio between North Asian and North American oil and gas has changed little. The PG - CP and PG - FEI spreads have changed. The premiums and discounts for East China arrival, North American and AFEI departure have remained flat, while the premium for Middle Eastern goods has increased. Freight rates have slightly declined. The FEI - MOPJ spread has narrowed. The profit of Shandong PDH to produce propylene has slightly recovered, and the alkylation unit has slightly improved but is still poor. The MTBE production profit has fluctuated, and the export profit is still good. There is an increase in arrivals, a decrease in external sales, a slight accumulation of factory inventories, and an accumulation of port inventories. The PDH operating rate has decreased, and the second - phase PDH of Dongguan Juzhengyuan is expected to restart next week. Overall, domestic chemical demand is relatively strong, and civil demand has increased, but there are expected to be more arrivals in December. Middle Eastern supplies are tight, but the market may be more inclined to wait and see as the CP official price announcement approaches. Additionally, weather and oil prices need to be monitored [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Daily Price Changes - On Wednesday, for civil gas, the price in East China was 4411 (+35), in Shandong was 4480 (+10), and in South China was 4530 (+0). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4480 (-20). The lowest - delivery area was East China, with a basis of 129 (+65) and a 01 - 02 spread of 91 (+4). As of 21:00, FEI was 509 (-1) and CP was 500 (+0) dollars/ton [1] 3.2 Weekly Price and Market Conditions - The PG futures price has decreased, with a basis of - 43 (-57) and a 01 - 02 spread of 109 (-19). Domestic civil gas prices have dropped, and the cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4315 (-49), with a shrinking propane - civil gas price difference. Warehouse receipts are 4561 hands (-54). Overseas paper - cargo prices have declined, and the spread has strengthened. The price ratio between North Asian and North American oil and gas has changed little, and the PG - CP has reached 126 (-2); the PG - FEI has reached 114 (+3). The premiums and discounts for East China arrival, North American and AFEI departure have remained flat, while the premium for Middle Eastern goods is 35 dollars (+13). Freight rates have slightly decreased. The FEI - MOPJ spread has narrowed to - 55 (+11) [1] 3.3 Profit and Operating Rate - The profit of Shandong PDH to produce propylene has slightly recovered. The alkylation unit has slightly improved but is still poor. The MTBE production profit has fluctuated, and the export profit is still good. The PDH operating rate is 69.64% (-2.1), and the second - phase PDH of Dongguan Juzhengyuan is expected to restart next week [1] 3.4 Inventory and Market Outlook - There is an increase in arrivals, a decrease in external sales, a slight accumulation of factory inventories, and an accumulation of port inventories. Overall, domestic chemical demand is relatively strong, and civil demand has increased, but there are expected to be more arrivals in December. Middle Eastern supplies are tight, but the market may be more inclined to wait and see as the CP official price announcement approaches. Additionally, weather and oil prices need to be monitored [1]
苯乙烯基差走强
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-03 05:18
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas gasoline supply is gradually recovering, leading to significant short-term arrival pressure on pure benzene, with an accelerated accumulation rate of port inventory. Downstream operations remain at a low level during the off - season. Styrene is under maintenance with low - load operations, CPL operations decline from a low level, and the operations of phenol, aniline, and adipic acid increase slightly, but terminal demand is still weak [3] - The port basis of styrene has strengthened again. Although the port inventory did not continue to decrease, there is still arrival pressure. However, downstream enterprises have made speculative purchases, and their persistence needs attention. Styrene is still in a low - operation stage during maintenance, and the resumption plan has been postponed. During the off - season, downstream operations remain at a low level. The operations of EPS, which is seasonally obvious, continue to decline, the operations of PS rebound but there is still inventory pressure, and the finished - product inventory pressure of ABS remains high while the operations are maintained at a low level [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Basis Structure and Inter - period Spreads of Pure Benzene and EB - Pure benzene: The main basis is - 119 yuan/ton (+16), the spot - M2 spread is - 140 yuan/ton (+10), and the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts is not given in specific data. Relevant figures include the main basis and futures price, main contract basis, spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts [1][8][13] - Styrene: The main basis is 51 yuan/ton (+0), and the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts is not given in specific data. Relevant figures include the main contract trend and basis, main contract basis, and the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts [1][16][17] II. Production Profits and Domestic - foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee is 102 dollars/ton (+4), the FOB Korea processing fee is 92 dollars/ton (+6), the US - Korea spread is 169.8 dollars/ton (-1), and there are also data on import profits. Relevant figures include naphtha processing fee, FOB Korea - CFR Japan spread, FOB US Gulf - FOB Korea spread, FOB US Gulf - CFR China spread, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China spread, and import profit [1][20][23] - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is - 161 yuan/ton (+2), and the expected profit is gradually shrinking. There are also data on import profits. Relevant figures include non - integrated device production profit, FOB US Gulf - CFR China spread, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China spread, and import profit [1][23][33] III. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 22.40 tons (+6.00 tons), and the operating rate is not given in specific change data. Relevant figures include East China port inventory and operating rate [1][37] - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 160,600 tons (-3,600 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 96,400 tons (+2,200 tons), and the operating rate is 67.3% (-1.7%). Relevant figures include East China port inventory, operating rate, East China commercial inventory, and factory inventory [1][39][42] IV. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS: The production profit is 1 yuan/ton (-15), and the operating rate is 54.75% (-1.52%) [2][48] - PS: The production profit is - 99 yuan/ton (-15), and the operating rate is 57.60% (+1.70%) [2][50] - ABS: The production profit is - 600 yuan/ton (-48), and the operating rate is 71.20% (-1.20%) [2][54] V. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 635 yuan/ton (-15), and the operating rate is 86.68% (-1.54%) [1][57] - Phenol - ketone: The production profit is - 602 yuan/ton (+0), and relevant figures show the operating rate and production profit [1][57] - Aniline: The production profit is 753 yuan/ton (+254), and the operating rate is 77.19% (+1.51%) [1][64] - Adipic acid: The production profit is - 1252 yuan/ton (+12), and the operating rate is 59.40% (+3.90%) [1][64]
LPG早报-20251201
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 00:57
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - PG futures prices have declined The basis is -43 (-57), and the spread between January and February contracts is 109 (-19) Domestic LPG prices for civil use have decreased The cheapest deliverable is the civil - use LPG in East China at 4315 (-49), and the price difference between propane and civil - use LPG has narrowed The number of warehouse receipts is 4561 (-54) [1] - The paper prices in the overseas market have decreased, while the spread between contracts has strengthened The ratio of oil and gas prices in North Asia and North America has changed little The spread between domestic PG and CP has reached 126 (-2); the spread between PG and FEI has reached 114 (+3) The discounts for East China's arrival, North America's and AFEI's departure have remained stable The supply of Middle - Eastern goods is tight, with a discount of 35 USD (+13) Freight rates have slightly decreased The spread between FEI and MOPJ has narrowed to -55 (+11) [1] - The profit of propylene production from PDH in Shandong has slightly recovered The profit of alkylation units has slightly improved but remains poor The profit of MTBE production has fluctuated, and the export profit is still good The arrival volume has increased, the external release has decreased, the factory inventory has slightly accumulated, and the port inventory has increased The PDH operating rate is 69.64% (-2.1), and the second - phase PDH of Dongguan Juzhengyuan is expected to restart next week [1] - Overall, the chemical industry in China is relatively strong, and the civil demand has increased, but more arrivals are expected in December The Middle - Eastern supply is tight, but the market may tend to wait and see as the CP official price announcement approaches Attention should also be paid to weather and oil price conditions [1] Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Daily Changes - On Friday, for civil - use LPG, the price in East China is 4323 (+13), in Shandong is 4460 (+10), and in South China is 4360 (+25) The price of ether - post - carbon - four is 4490 (+10) The lowest delivery location is East China, with a basis of -43 (-57), and the spread between January and February contracts is 109 (-19) FEI is 537 (+10) USD/ton The official CP prices for December have been released, with propane and butane at 495/485 (+20/+25) [1] Weekly Views - The PG futures prices have declined, with a decrease in the basis and the spread between January and February contracts The domestic civil - use LPG prices have dropped, the cheapest deliverable has decreased in price, and the propane - civil LPG price difference has shrunk The number of warehouse receipts has decreased [1] - Overseas paper prices have fallen, contract spreads have strengthened, and the oil - gas price ratio in North Asia and North America has changed little The spreads of domestic PG - CP and PG - FEI have changed, and the discounts in different regions have different trends The freight rates have slightly decreased, and the FEI - MOPJ spread has narrowed [1] - The profits of some chemical production processes have shown different trends, with the arrival volume increasing, external release decreasing, and inventory accumulating in factories and ports The PDH operating rate has decreased, and a PDH unit is expected to restart next week [1] - The domestic chemical industry is relatively stable, civil demand has increased, but more arrivals are expected in December The Middle - Eastern supply is tight, and the market may wait and see before the CP official price announcement Attention should also be paid to weather and oil prices [1]
纯苯苯乙烯日报:淡季下游开工表现一般-20251128
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 05:24
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - With the peak of autumn maintenance in European and American refineries passing, their operations are gradually resuming, and the most critical period for gasoline supply may have passed. The rhythmic arrival of pure benzene at ports has increased pressure, leading to a further rise in port inventories and suppressing the performance of pure benzene processing fees. Downstream operations remain at a low level during the off - season, with styrene maintaining low - load maintenance, CPL operations dropping further from a low level, and the operations of phenol, aniline, and adipic acid slightly increasing, but terminal demand remains weak [3]. - Overseas, South Korea's Daehan, Lotte, and Hyundai have officially announced a merger and will shut down Lotte's 1.1 million - ton cracking unit. Attention should be paid to whether Lotte's styrene units in South Korea will stop production. In China, port inventories have risen again. Although styrene is still in a low - operation maintenance stage and the resumption plan has been postponed, downstream operations during the off - season are still low. The operation of EPS, which has obvious seasonality, continues to decline, the operation of PS rebounds but inventory pressure remains, and the finished - product inventory pressure of ABS remains high while its operation stays at a low level [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spreads - Relevant figures include the basis of the pure benzene main contract, the price of the pure benzene main futures contract, the spread between pure benzene spot and M2 paper goods, the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts of pure benzene, the trend and basis of the EB main contract, the basis of the EB main contract, and the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts of styrene [7][10][15] II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads - Relevant figures cover naphtha processing fees, the difference between FOB South Korea pure benzene and CFR Japan naphtha, the production profit of non - integrated styrene units, the difference between FOB US Gulf pure benzene and FOB South Korea pure benzene, the difference between FOB US Gulf pure benzene and CFR China pure benzene, the difference between FOB Rotterdam pure benzene and CFR China pure benzene, pure benzene import profit, styrene import profit, the difference between FOB US Gulf styrene and CFR China styrene, and the difference between FOB Rotterdam styrene and CFR China styrene [18][21][36] III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventories, Operating Rates - Relevant figures involve the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports, the operating rate of pure benzene, the inventory of styrene in East China ports, the operating rate of styrene, the commercial inventory of styrene in East China, and the factory inventory of styrene [38][40][43] IV. Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Relevant figures include the operating rate and production profit of EPS, the operating rate and production profit of PS, and the operating rate and production profit of ABS [51][56][58] V. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Relevant figures cover the operating rates of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, and adipic acid, as well as the production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6 regular - spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [62][71][75]
LPG早报-20251128
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 01:30
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - PG futures prices declined, with the basis at -43 (-57) and the 01 - 02 spread at 109 (-19). Domestic LPG prices dropped, and the cheapest deliverable was East China LPG at 4315 (-49), with the propane - LPG price difference narrowing. [1] - Warehouse receipts decreased by 54 to 4561 lots. International paper - based prices fell, and the spread strengthened. The ratio of North Asian to North American oil and gas changed little. The domestic - international PG - CP spread was 126 (-2); PG - FEI was 114 (+3). [1] - The premium of East China arrival, North American, and AFEI departure remained flat. Middle Eastern supplies were tight, with a premium of $35 (+13). Freight rates declined slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -55 (+11). [1] - The profit of propylene production from Shandong PDH improved slightly; the alkylation unit improved slightly but remained poor; the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit remained good. [1] - Arrivals increased, external sales decreased, factory inventories increased slightly, and port inventories rose. The PDH operating rate was 69.64% (-2.1), and the second - phase PDH of Dongguan Juzhengyuan is expected to restart next week. [1] - Overall, domestic chemical demand is relatively strong, and civil demand is increasing, but more arrivals are expected in December. Middle Eastern supplies are tight, but as the CP official price announcement approaches, the market may be more inclined to wait - and - see. Additionally, weather and oil prices need to be monitored. [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Data Daily Changes - On Thursday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4310 (+0), in Shandong was 4450 (-10), and in South China was 4335 (+5). The price of ether - post - carbon four was 4480 (+10). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 5. The 01 - 02 spread was 89 (-1). FEI was 526.79 (+6.79) and CP was 498.8 (+5.8) dollars per ton. [1] Weekly Changes - The PG futures price declined. The basis was -43 (-57), and the 01 - 02 spread was 109 (-19). Domestic civil LPG prices dropped, and the cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4315 (-49). [1] - Warehouse receipts decreased by 54 to 4561 lots. International paper - based prices fell, and the spread strengthened. The ratio of North Asian to North American oil and gas changed little. The domestic - international PG - CP spread was 126 (-2); PG - FEI was 114 (+3). [1] - The premium of East China arrival, North American, and AFEI departure remained flat. Middle Eastern supplies were tight, with a premium of $35 (+13). Freight rates declined slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -55 (+11). [1] - The profit of propylene production from Shandong PDH improved slightly; the alkylation unit improved slightly but remained poor; the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit remained good. [1] - Arrivals increased, external sales decreased, factory inventories increased slightly, and port inventories rose. The PDH operating rate was 69.64% (-2.1), and the second - phase PDH of Dongguan Juzhengyuan is expected to restart next week. [1]
化工日报:EG基差继续下跌-20251126
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 03:16
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The EG basis continued to decline. The closing price of the EG main contract was 3,873 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan/ton or - 0.28% from the previous trading day), the EG spot price in the East China market was 3,918 yuan/ton (up 18 yuan/ton or + 0.46% from the previous trading day), and the EG East China spot basis was 23 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 62 US dollars/ton (up 8 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 1,049 yuan/ton (up 52 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - The MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 73.2 tons (unchanged month - on - month) according to CCF data and 63.3 tons (up 1.5 tons month - on - month) according to Longzhong data. The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week were 9.5 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 1.4 tons, which was slightly lower than neutral. The inventory was expected to remain stable with a slight decrease [2]. - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load decreased from a high level, and some short - process oil refinery plants faced great production pressure. Overseas ethylene glycol plant changes were limited, and the port inventory was expected to remain stable in the short term, but there were still plans for large Saudi vessels to arrive at the port in early December. On the demand side, the polyester load with low inventory was still supported, but the orders showed a marginal weakening [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3,873 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan/ton or - 0.28% from the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market was 3,918 yuan/ton (up 18 yuan/ton or + 0.46% from the previous trading day). The EG East China spot basis was 23 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 62 US dollars/ton (up 8 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 1,049 yuan/ton (up 52 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - The domestic ethylene glycol load decreased from a high level, and some short - process oil refinery plants faced great production pressure [2]. International Price Difference - No specific international price difference data was provided in the text. Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - The polyester load with low inventory was still supported, but the orders showed a marginal weakening [2]. Inventory Data - The MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 73.2 tons (unchanged month - on - month) according to CCF data and 63.3 tons (up 1.5 tons month - on - month) according to Longzhong data. The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week were 9.5 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 1.4 tons, which was slightly lower than neutral. The inventory was expected to remain stable with a slight decrease [2].
纯苯苯乙烯日报:苯乙烯检修仍持续-20251126
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 02:55
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the pure benzene market, with the peak of autumn maintenance in European and American refineries passing and the resumption of refinery operations, the most critical period for gasoline supply may have passed. The rhythmical arrival of pure benzene at ports increases the pressure, leading to a further rise in port inventories at the beginning of the week, which suppresses the performance of pure benzene processing fees. Downstream operations are still at a low level, with the operation rate of phenol rising, while those of aniline and adipic acid declining. Styrene is still in the maintenance period and is expected to resume operations at the end of the month [2]. - In the styrene market, port inventories did not continue to decline, and the arrival of goods increased rhythmically. Styrene is still in the low - operation maintenance stage, and the resumption plan has been postponed. Attention now shifts to the downstream. Currently, downstream operations are still at a low level. The operation rate of EPS, which has obvious seasonality, is expected to further decline at the end of the year, while those of ABS and PS are slightly rising from a low level, and there is still inventory pressure on PS and ABS [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spreads - Not elaborated in detail in the summary part, only mentioned figures related to pure benzene's basis and futures contracts, and EB's basis and spreads [1][7][12] II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Internal - External Spreads - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee is 101 dollars/ton (-10 dollars/ton), and the FOB South Korea processing fee is 89 dollars/ton (-9 dollars/ton). The profit of downstream products varies, with caprolactam at -850 yuan/ton (+275), phenol - acetone at -415 yuan/ton (+0), aniline at 499 yuan/ton (+3), and adipic acid at -1245 yuan/ton (+23) [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is -223 yuan/ton (+30 yuan/ton), with an expected gradual compression [1]. III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventories, Operation Rates - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 16.40 tons (+1.70 tons), and the downstream operation rate is generally low, with the phenol operation rate rising, and those of aniline and adipic acid falling [1][2]. - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 164,200 tons (+15,900 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 94,200 tons (+6,900 tons), and the operation rate is 69.0% (-0.3%). It is still in the maintenance period, and the resumption plan is postponed [1][2]. IV. Styrene Downstream Operation and Production Profits - EPS production profit is 105 yuan/ton (-10 yuan/ton), operation rate is 56.27% (+4.64%); PS production profit is 5 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), operation rate is 55.90% (+0.50%); ABS production profit is -493 yuan/ton (+2 yuan/ton), operation rate is 72.40% (+0.60%). EPS is expected to have a further decline in operation rate at the end of the year, while ABS and PS have a slight increase from a low level, and there is still inventory pressure on PS and ABS [1][2]. V. Pure Benzene Downstream Operation and Production Profits - Caprolactam operation rate is 88.23% (+2.18%), phenol operation rate is 79.00% (+12.00%), aniline operation rate is 75.68% (-4.49%), adipic acid operation rate is 55.50% (-6.50%). The production profits of downstream products vary as mentioned above [1]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: No strategy provided. - Basis and Inter - Period: Consider a positive inter - period spread arbitrage for EB2512 - EB2601 at low prices. - Cross - Variety: Consider widening the spread for EB2512 - BZ2603 at low prices [3].
LPG早报-20251125
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 02:24
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The PG market declined with a weakening basis and 01 - 02 spread. Domestic civil gas prices decreased, and the cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas. The propane - civil gas spread narrowed. Warehouse receipts decreased. The overseas paper - based prices dropped, but the spread strengthened. The PG - CP and PG - FEI spreads changed slightly. The freight rate decreased slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed. Profits of Shandong PDH to propylene and alkylation units improved slightly, while MTBE production profits fluctuated and export profits remained good. There was an increase in arrivals, a decrease in external sales, and inventory accumulation at factories and ports. The PDH operating rate decreased, and Dongguan Juzhengyuan's PDH Phase II is expected to restart next week. Overall, domestic chemical demand is relatively strong, civil demand is increasing, but there are expected to be many arrivals in December. The Middle East supply is tight, and the market may be more inclined to wait - and - see before the CP official price announcement. Attention should also be paid to weather and oil price conditions [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Changes - On Monday, for civil gas, prices were 4305 (-10) in East China, 4400 (+60) in Shandong, and 4405 (+5) in South China. The price of ether - after carbon four was 4400 (-90). The lowest delivery location was East China with a basis of 6 (+23), and the 01 - 02 spread was 98 (-10). FEI was 501.5 (+1.5) and CP was 489.5 (+7.5) dollars/ton [1] 2. Weekly Views - The PG futures price declined. The basis was - 43 (-57), and the 01 - 02 spread was 109 (-19). Domestic civil gas prices fell. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4315 (-49), and the propane - civil gas spread narrowed. There were 4561 warehouse receipts (-54). Overseas paper - based prices dropped, and the spread strengthened. The gas - oil ratio between North Asia and North America changed little. The PG - CP spread was 126 (-2), and the PG - FEI spread was 114 (+3). The East China arrival, North America, and AFEI offshore discounts were flat, while the Middle East supply was tight with a discount of 35 dollars (+13). The freight rate decreased slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 55 (+11). The profit of Shandong PDH to propylene improved slightly, the alkylation unit improved slightly but remained poor, and the MTBE production profit fluctuated with good export profits. Arrivals increased, external sales decreased, and inventory accumulated at factories and ports. The PDH operating rate was 69.64% (-2.1), and Dongguan Juzhengyuan's PDH Phase II is expected to restart next week [1]