Core Viewpoint - Japan is facing escalating inflation and economic challenges, prompting the government to implement a record-scale economic stimulus plan, which raises concerns about further deterioration of public finances [1][2][6]. Economic Measures - The Japanese government has approved a comprehensive economic strategy amounting to approximately 21.3 trillion yen (about 96.56 billion RMB), marking the highest general account expenditure for the supplementary budget since 2022 [2][4]. - The supplementary budget for the fiscal year 2025 is expected to reach around 17.7 trillion yen, reflecting a 27% increase compared to the previous year's budget [4]. Inflation and Consumer Impact - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Japan rose by 3.0% year-on-year in October, continuing a trend of increasing prices for over 50 months, with significant price hikes in essential goods like rice (up 40.2%) and eggs (up 13.6%) [10][12][15]. - A survey indicated that over 99% of respondents felt the burden of rising prices, with 81.6% experiencing significant pressure [15]. Market Reactions - The Japanese stock market has experienced volatility, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping by 2.40% on November 21, reflecting market skepticism towards the government's economic policies [21]. - The depreciation of the yen has led to increased import prices, further exacerbating inflationary pressures [17]. Structural Economic Issues - Japan's economy is grappling with structural challenges, including high national debt, persistent inflation, and declining real wages, which contribute to weak domestic demand and market confidence [18][20]. - The government's economic measures are viewed as a temporary fix that does not address the underlying issues of fiscal health and productivity [20].

Group 1 - Japan's Prime Minister Kishi Sanae's remarks on Taiwan have sparked strong criticism domestically and internationally, with China demanding a retraction of these statements [1][2][3] - Economic indicators in Japan are showing signs of decline, with a reported 3% increase in prices, raising concerns about the potential negative impact on the economy due to deteriorating Japan-China relations [1][5] - The Japanese government is facing pressure to modify its defense policies, including discussions on amending the "Three Non-Nuclear Principles" and increasing defense spending, which has raised alarms among neighboring countries [1][8] Group 2 - The Japanese economy is experiencing anxiety as various sectors are affected by the fallout from Kishi's comments, leading to the cancellation or postponement of multiple events involving Japanese artists and athletes in China [5] - A significant economic stimulus plan amounting to 21.3 trillion yen (approximately 135.4 billion USD) has been introduced by the government to address economic challenges, but concerns about fiscal deterioration are growing [6] - The market sentiment is deteriorating, with fears that Kishi's statements could lead to a loss of policy credibility, prompting potential sell-offs of Japanese assets by international investors [6]

由于超大规模经济刺激计划令财政风险加剧，市场对日本财政状况恶化的担忧不断上升，近日日本债市 长债收益率不断冲击历史高点。日本野村综合研究所研究员木内登英指出，日本首相高市早苗坚持积极 财政政策的鲜明态度将助长日元贬值倾向、推动物价进一步上涨，令日本国债和货币的可信度大打折 扣。 （文章来源：新华财经） 本轮经济刺激计划主要包括三大内容。"生活安全保障及物价对策"预计花费11.7万亿日元；"危机管理 投资及成长投资"将投入7.2万亿日元；"强化防卫及外交"拟支出1.7万亿日元。 应对物价上涨的具体措施包括：下调汽油税和柴油税；扩大冬季电费及燃气费补贴范围；增加对地方政 府的转移支付，鼓励其发放大米票、消费券；向育儿家庭发放补贴，不满18岁的孩子每人2万日元；提 高个人所得税征税门槛，增加低收入人群收入。 新华财经东京11月21日电 日本政府内阁会议21日通过决议，决定推出财政总规模达21.3万亿日元（1美 元约合156日元）的新一轮经济刺激计划。 根据内阁府公布的文件，日本政府拟通过编制补充预算安排财政支出17.7万亿日元，此外的减税规模为 2.7万亿日元。为落实该计划，日本政府将尽快编制本财年补充预算案，提交 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's economy is currently facing significant challenges, with a consensus among key economic leaders on the urgency of addressing market dynamics [2][3]. Economic Performance - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% in Q3, marking a year-on-year decline of 1.8%, the first negative growth since Q1 2024 [6][11]. - The decline in GDP is attributed to weak personal consumption growth of only 0.1%, a 1.2% drop in export growth, and a significant 9.4% decrease in housing investment [8][18]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement of economic challenges, the Japanese yen weakened, and bond yields surged, with the 10-year bond yield reaching 1.76%, the highest since June 2008 [3][4]. - The Nikkei 225 index experienced a sharp decline, dropping over 2% and falling below 49,000 points on November 21 [5]. Government Response - Prime Minister Kishi's administration announced a substantial economic stimulus plan amounting to 21.3 trillion yen, which includes 17.7 trillion yen in general account spending, representing a 27% increase from the previous government's budget [19][21]. - This stimulus plan has raised concerns about its impact on Japan's fiscal health, leading to further market volatility [19][20]. Trade Relations - Japan's export growth is under pressure, particularly in the automotive sector, due to a new trade agreement with the U.S. that imposes a 15% tariff on Japanese cars [14][16]. - China has become Japan's largest trading partner, accounting for approximately 20% of Japan's exports, making the current political tensions particularly concerning for Japan's economic stability [23][34]. Political Climate - The new Prime Minister's assertive political stance has led to increased tensions with China, which could have negative repercussions for Japan's economy, especially in tourism and trade [26][28]. - The potential decline in Chinese tourists, who represent a significant portion of Japan's inbound tourism, could further strain the economy, with estimates suggesting a 25.1% drop could reduce GDP by approximately 0.36% [31][34].

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 日本内阁批准了21.3万亿日元的经济刺激计划。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing sell-off in Japanese government bonds signals significant concerns regarding the country's fiscal health, exacerbated by a proposed large-scale economic stimulus plan exceeding 20 trillion yen, which could further strain Japan's finances [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Japanese government bond yields have surged, with the 10-year yield reaching 1.8%, the highest since 2008, and the 40-year yield hitting a historical peak of 3.695% [2]. - The Nikkei 225 index has experienced substantial declines, erasing most gains since the new Prime Minister's election, indicating investor anxiety [2]. - The Japanese yen has weakened against the dollar, falling below 157 yen per dollar, reflecting market instability [2]. Group 2: Government Actions and Plans - The government is preparing a supplementary budget of at least 25 trillion yen to support economic recovery and protect households from rising prices, which is expected to lead to increased issuance of long-term bonds [2][4]. - Recent discussions between government officials and the Bank of Japan focused on maintaining communication regarding market conditions, although no specific currency discussions were held [3]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Concerns - Investors are increasingly worried about the fiscal risks associated with the proposed stimulus, fearing that it may necessitate further bond issuance [4]. - The recent cancellation of the annual "primary balance" target and proposed changes to corporate governance have heightened investor concerns, contributing to market volatility [4]. - Analysts warn that if the government's credibility is undermined, a broader sell-off of Japanese assets could ensue, reflecting a growing perception of economic chaos [6].

格隆汇11月20日｜据市场消息，日本政府正处于编制一项价值21.3万亿日元经济刺激方案的最后阶段。 日本的经济刺激计划规模将达到42.8万亿日元，其中包括私营部门的投资。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

抛！抛！抛！ 日本正面临新一轮的抛售潮。 当地时间19日，日本新发10年期国债收益率升至1.76%，为2008年6月以来新高。日本国债遭投资者抛售，长期利率持续上升。 此前一天，日本股债汇遭"三杀"。 日经225指数昨日收盘跌超3%，创下近期单日最大跌幅。债市紧随其后，日本国债遭遇大规模抛压，超长期品种尤为惨烈。与此同时，日元汇率持续走 弱，欧元对日元盘中再度突破180整数关口，创下自1999年以来二十余年新低。 这场席卷日本股、债、汇三市的抛售风暴，源自日本新任首相高市早苗近期在台湾问题上的一系列错误言论。这些言论不仅严重冲击中日政治互信，更引 发市场对两国经贸关系恶化的强烈担忧，投资者正用脚投票表达对日本经济前景的悲观预期。 作为全球第二大经济体，中国对日本经济具有不可替代的战略意义：从高端制造设备到稀土供应，从汽车出口到零售布局，中日已形成"你中有我、我中有 你"的共生格局。任何挑战这一关系的行动，都将直接反噬日本自身的经济稳定。 01 日本经济复苏不可或缺的一环 2024年的日本经济，宛如一艘装备精良却航速缓慢的巨轮。根据最新《日本经济蓝皮书》显示，日本名义GDP已突破600万亿日元1，创下统计以来最 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors are increasingly concerned that the large-scale economic stimulus plan proposed by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will harm Japan's public finances, leading to a further decline in long-term Japanese government bond prices [1][2] Group 1: Bond Market Reaction - The yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds rose by 8 basis points to 3.68%, marking the highest level since its issuance in 2007 [1] - Yields on Japan's 20-year and 30-year government bonds also increased by at least 4 basis points, with the 30-year yield nearing its historical peak [1][2] - On November 17, the Japanese bond market experienced widespread declines, with yields generally rising; the 20-year bond yield increased by 3.2 basis points to 2.748%, and the 30-year bond yield rose by 5 basis points to 3.263% [2] Group 2: Market Comparison - The sharp decline in Japanese long-term bond prices contrasts with slight decreases in yields for U.S. and Australian government bonds on the same day [2] - The Tokyo stock market also continued to decline, with the Nikkei 225 index falling by 0.10% on November 17 and experiencing a further drop of 3.3% on November 18 [2] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - A strategic researcher from Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities indicated that bond purchases may remain limited until the government unveils its economic stimulus plan, which is scheduled for cabinet approval on November 21 [2]

Group 1 - Japanese long-term government bonds have declined further, raising concerns about the potential impact of Prime Minister Kishi's upcoming large-scale economic stimulus plan on public finances [1][4] - The yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds has surged by 8 basis points to 3.68%, the highest level since its issuance in 2007; yields on 20-year and 30-year bonds have also increased by at least 4 basis points [1][4] - The government is considering an additional budget of approximately 14 trillion yen (about 91 billion USD) for the current fiscal year, exceeding last year's 13.9 trillion yen, reflecting Kishi's commitment to a "responsible and expansionary fiscal" policy [4] Group 2 - The recent GDP data showing a 1.8% annualized decline in Japan's third quarter supports the push for a large-scale stimulus plan, marking the first negative growth in six quarters [4] - Market participants are closely monitoring the upcoming auction of 20-year government bonds, with expectations of weak demand due to the current volatility in the bond market [4] - Prime Minister Kishi is scheduled to meet with Bank of Japan Governor Ueda, with market attention focused on their statements for clues regarding the timing of the next interest rate hike [5]