而且更重要的是，各国央行现在都在疯狂购买黄金。为什么呢？因为大家都害怕美元和美债会崩盘。你 看现在的美国，简直是个"末日"景象。联邦政府已经停摆接近40天，美债接近40万亿美元的高峰，而特 朗普还天天通过关税去压榨盟友。美国国内物价飞涨，人民生活艰难。在这种情况下，越来越多的国家 开始担心美元或美债中的泡沫会最终破裂。为了应对这种风险，许多国家的央行都开始购买黄金，因为 黄金被认为是最稳妥的硬通货。不管是官方还是民间，都在买黄金，黄金价格自然就水涨船高。 另外，很多央行也在考虑一个问题，就是买了那么多黄金，应该把它们存放在哪里？大家应该知道，曾 几何时，美国是世界上最大的债务国，美联储地下金库中存放了大量其他国家的黄金。对于这些国家来 说，把黄金存放在美国有两个好处。首先，美国被认为是全球最富有、最安全的国家，大家相信把黄金 存在那儿，美国不会赖账。其次，很多国家的央行经常需要进行黄金交易，想象一下，如果我要卖出 100吨黄金，是找专列运输，还是找专机运输？这太危险了，护送也很麻烦。所以，大家选择把黄金存 放在美联储，这样交易就方便多了。比如，A国卖给B国一批黄金，只需要推着小推车过去，因为黄金 就存放在美联 ...

前言 在全球金融市场暗流涌动的当下，一场不宣而战的信用博弈正在上演。 小李注意到，11月5日中国财政部在香港发行的40亿美元主权债券，以30倍认购率瞬间售罄的盛况，不仅创下全球资本追捧的纪录，更成为中美金融 博弈攻守转换的标志性事件。 资本用脚投票 全球投资者对中国美元债的狂热追捧，绝非偶然的市场冲动，总认购金额高达1182亿美元的数字背后，是专业投资机构对资产安全性的极致追求。 参与此次认购的并非普通散户，而是各国央行、主权基金、国际顶尖投行等"聪明钱"，其决策逻辑永远围绕"风险-收益"的最优解。 对比美国国债的尴尬处境，这种选择的合理性愈发清晰。 美国当前国债规模已突破38万亿美元，财政收入仅4万亿美元却要承担6万亿美元的年度支出，每年2万亿美元的缺口只能靠"借新还旧"维系。 更严峻的是，2024年美国国债利息支出已突破1.1万亿美元，超过军费成为第一大财政负担，这种"以债养债"的游戏早已濒临临界点。 穆迪2025年将美国主权信用评级下调至AA1，彻底击碎其最后一块3A信用招牌。 在小李看来，资本的流向从来不会说谎。 当中国以零违约的主权信用记录、每年超4000亿美元的贸易顺差、3万亿美元外汇储备的厚实家 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan, once considered a "regional currency," is now gaining significant traction on the international stage, with its share in global foreign exchange reserves reaching 2% by mid-2025, indicating a shift in the global financial landscape [1][20]. Group 1: Yuan's Role in Commodity Markets - The yuan's internationalization is being tested in the commodity markets, where historically, transactions have been dominated by the US dollar [3]. - In a significant move, by the end of 2025, China's Mineral Resources Group, along with domestic steel companies, negotiated to settle 30% of iron ore purchases in yuan, challenging the dollar's long-standing pricing mechanism [5]. - Algeria has also shifted 85% of its oil export orders to yuan, reflecting a broader trend among resource-exporting countries to reconsider their settlement currencies [5][6]. Group 2: Attracting Global Capital - To enhance the value of yuan-denominated assets, China has focused on attracting global capital through interest rate advantages and macroeconomic stability [8]. - In early 2025, China's Ministry of Finance issued $4 billion in sovereign bonds in Hong Kong, receiving subscriptions 30 times the issuance amount, signaling strong demand for yuan assets [10]. - Additionally, China issued €4 billion in bonds in Luxembourg tailored for European investors, further integrating yuan into international investment portfolios [10]. Group 3: Institutional Support for Yuan Internationalization - The internationalization of the yuan is supported by China's strategic planning, as outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan, which includes specific tasks for cross-border capital flow and financial openness [14]. - Various regional pilot programs, such as the "Cross-Border Wealth Management Connect" in the Greater Bay Area and the "Free Trade Island" in Hainan, are designed to facilitate the international use of the yuan [14][16]. - The yuan is positioned as a viable alternative to the dollar, especially for developing countries seeking stable and low-cost settlement options [16]. Group 4: Shifting Global Financial Landscape - The current international financial landscape is transitioning from a "unipolar dollar" system to a "multipolar coexistence," with the yuan emerging as an important variable [18]. - Although the yuan's share is only 2%, its growth rate is the fastest among major currencies, indicating a shift towards reducing reliance on the dollar rather than outright replacement [18][20]. - Countries in the Middle East and Africa are increasingly considering the yuan for trade settlements and foreign reserves, reflecting a desire to diversify away from the dollar amid US-centric monetary policies [18][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing financial battle between the US dollar and the Chinese yuan, highlighting how the recent ban on non-dollar metal trading in London may inadvertently strengthen the yuan's position in global metal transactions [1][3]. Group 1: Historical Context - The article draws parallels between the current situation and the decline of the British pound in the 1950s, where attempts to enforce currency dominance through administrative measures backfired, leading to the rise of the dollar as the primary global currency [5][10]. - The dollar's dominance has been built on three pillars: settlement, reserve, and pricing power, with pricing being a significant source of revenue [12][18]. Group 2: Current Developments - The Shanghai Futures Exchange recently reported that yuan-denominated copper futures have reached the highest global position, while the London Metal Exchange (LME) has halted all non-dollar metal options trading, indicating a desperate attempt to maintain dollar dominance [8][10]. - The yuan's share in global metal pricing has surged by 900% over three years, with countries like Russia and those in the Middle East increasingly signing long-term contracts in yuan [8][18]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the LME's ban, the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a significant increase in trading volume, while dollar-denominated transactions on the LME stagnated, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards yuan pricing [23][25]. - The Dubai Commodity Exchange announced plans to launch yuan-denominated copper futures, further solidifying the yuan's position in the market [25][30]. Group 4: Future Implications - The article suggests that the dollar's attempts to maintain its hegemony through financial restrictions may lead to its own decline, as the yuan's real demand in the industrial sector becomes more prominent [32][34]. - The shift towards yuan-denominated transactions is seen as a natural evolution of the global industrial landscape, with the yuan's rise being supported by actual market needs rather than speculative financial maneuvers [36].

央行公布最新数据，我国已经连续一整年都在增持黄金，可很多海外机构却给出了截然不同的看法，算的数字一个比一个大，日本某协会认为咱们的总储备 量可能已经翻了一番，法国银行也估算，中国黄金的实际增量可能是官方公布的十倍左右。 日媒网站截图 那我们为什么要如此坚定的往家里囤黄金呢？ 根据央行在11月初发布的消息，中国黄金储备总量已经超过了七千万盎司，简单换算一下，我们已经囤积了超过两千三百吨黄金。 这是官方连续第十二个月买入黄金，仅仅10个月，我们的账面上就增加了近百万盎司。 日本行业协会也给出了中国现有实际黄金储备将近有近五千吨的猜测，咱们且不管这些数字是怎么算出来的，但西方国家几乎一致都认为我们在黄金储量上 做了隐瞒。 但不管怎么说，中国持续不断地买入黄金这个事是确定的，可为什么我们国家要如此坚定的买入黄金呢？ 在过去很长一段时间里，美元和美债都是全球通用的避险资产，毕竟美元是世界货币，流动性上绝对没问题，美债也是全球优质资产之一，美国再怎么说也 是世界超级大国，其国家信用就是当今世界的通行证。 看来购买黄金已经成为了我们长期且坚定的国策，不过在西方很多金融机构眼里，我们的这个增长速度还是有点"保守"了。 毕竟这 ...

过去几十年，美国各种资本集团在全球化红利下相安无事，形成了犹太资本主导金融、法律、传媒，盎 格鲁撒克逊资本掌控军工、能源和传统制造业的格局。 但如今这套玩法不灵了，至于原因，张维为教授曾一语点破：美国收割不了中国了。 两边一边管着钱袋子，一边握着枪杆子，靠着美元在国际上的霸权地位，周期性地从世界各地收割财 富，坐地分赃。 没了共同的"肥肉"，之前藏着的矛盾就全暴露出来了。 二战的时候，犹太和盎撒合作就体现得特别明显，犹太资本旗下的华尔街机构给美国军工企业砸了大量 资金，像洛克希德·马丁、波音这些军工巨头，背后都有犹太股东的支持，让美国的武器产能一下子爆 发出来。 同时，犹太资本还通过贷款给盟国、推动《租借法案》落实，帮着美元一步步取代英镑，成为全球主要 货币。 而盎撒精英则牢牢掌控着军队和外交大权，艾森豪威尔、麦克阿瑟这些军方高层都是盎撒背景，他们主 导着战争进程，还设计了战后的国际秩序。 当时这两家配合得相当默契，犹太资本负责赚钱和塑造舆论，盎撒集团负责用武力维护霸权，一起把美 国推上了世界霸主的位置。 二战结束后，这种合作模式又延续了几十年，核心就是一起收割全球财富。 美国收割别的国家有一套成熟的套路，要 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expansion of U.S. national debt is supported by the dominance of the U.S. dollar, which remains strong as long as dollar credit is intact, leading to a significant increase in national debt levels, surpassing $38 trillion for the first time in history [1][11]. Group 1: U.S. National Debt Expansion - The U.S. national debt has grown at an unprecedented rate, accumulating at approximately $69,713.82 per second over the past year, marking the fastest increase outside of the COVID-19 pandemic period [1]. - As of October, the U.S. national debt reached over $38 trillion, following a previous milestone of $37 trillion in August [1]. - The U.S. government currently holds over 40% of the total global sovereign debt, surpassing the combined economic sizes of China, Japan, Germany, and the UK [5]. Group 2: Historical Context of Dollar Dominance - The Bretton Woods system established the U.S. dollar as the world's dominant currency post-World War II, replacing the British pound and leading to the creation of a global dollar system [2][3]. - The dollar's value was initially tied to gold, but significant military expenditures during the Korean and Vietnam Wars led to its devaluation and the eventual decoupling from gold [2][3]. - The establishment of the "petrodollar" system in the 1970s, where oil transactions were conducted in dollars, further solidified the dollar's global dominance [3]. Group 3: Mechanisms Supporting Debt Expansion - The Federal Reserve's control over dollar issuance and its ability to conduct quantitative easing (QE) have been crucial in supporting the U.S. national debt market, ensuring liquidity and preventing defaults [6][8]. - The Fed's purchasing of government bonds during economic downturns allows it to maintain a stable market for U.S. debt, preventing issues such as auction failures or price drops [6]. - The digitalization of the dollar through stablecoins has opened new channels for dollar issuance, further reinforcing the demand for U.S. debt as these stablecoins are often backed by U.S. Treasury securities [7]. Group 4: Global Demand for U.S. Debt - The U.S. dollar accounts for 56.3% of global foreign exchange reserves, and its dominance in international trade and finance makes U.S. debt a preferred asset for many countries [8][9]. - Countries with trade surpluses, particularly in East Asia and oil-exporting nations, are significant holders of U.S. debt, using it as a tool for balancing their foreign exchange markets [9]. - The U.S. financial market's sophistication allows for effective external financing, with national debt serving as a mechanism to recycle dollars back into the economy [9]. Group 5: Credit and Value of the Dollar - The stability of the dollar's value and its creditworthiness are key factors in its continued acceptance as a global reserve currency, with the Fed's monetary policies ensuring a controlled supply of dollars [11][12]. - The relationship between the credit of the dollar and U.S. debt is positive; as long as the dollar maintains its credit, the expansion of U.S. debt will continue smoothly [11][12]. - The absence of defaults or payment delays on U.S. debt reinforces its credibility, ensuring ongoing demand from both domestic and international investors [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article expresses skepticism towards Bitcoin, asserting that it is ultimately worthless despite its recent price surge to over $100,000, and compares it to historical speculative bubbles like tulip mania [2][3][4]. Group 1: Historical Context and Speculation - Historical speculative bubbles have always led to the same outcome, with participants believing "this time will be different," but the results remain unchanged [4]. - The article draws parallels between Bitcoin and past speculative events, suggesting that Bitcoin will eventually return to its origins, similar to the fate of tulip bulbs in the Netherlands [3]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The rise of Bitcoin is attributed to the decline of the U.S. dollar's credibility, which has led to a surge in gold prices as well [6]. - The article argues that Bitcoin's popularity is being inadvertently supported by the U.S. government, which sees it as a necessary outlet for excess dollars due to the decoupling of the U.S. and China [9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The duration of Bitcoin's dominance is uncertain and will depend on the collapse of the old order and the establishment of a new one [10]. - While short-term participation in Bitcoin speculation may not pose immediate risks, it is suggested that long-term consequences will eventually emerge [11].

2025年10月22日，美国联邦债务总额正式突破了38万亿美元大关。 这是什么概念？ 从37万亿到38万亿，只用了短短两个月，创下了疫情以来最快的"烧钱"速度。 算下来，相当于美国政府平均每天要烧掉220亿美元，每秒钟就是7万美元的赤字在增加。 这个数字，已经超过了美国GDP的128%，远远甩开了国际货币基金组织设定的100%安全警戒线。 债务本身并不可怕，可怕的是它滚雪球式的利息。 根据最新预测，美国在2025年光是支付国债利息，就可能高达1.4万亿美元。 这笔钱，不仅超过了其庞大的军费开支，更是吞噬了整个财政收入的四分之一。 这意味着，山姆大叔每挣4块钱，就有1块钱要拿去还利息。 这种日子，别说一个国家，就是一个家庭也撑不了多久。 面对这颗随时可能引爆的炸弹，最坐不住的，自然是手握利率大权的美联储。 就在北京时间10月30日凌晨，美联储主席鲍威尔顶着巨大的压力，宣布了年内的第二次降息，将联邦基金利率下调25个基点。 他同时宣布，将于12月1日正式停止已经持续了两年多的量化紧缩计划。 这绝对是一个180度的大转弯。 要知道，就在不久前，美联储还在为高企的通胀头疼不已。 9月份的通胀率攀升至年内高点，牛肉等生 ...

哈喽，大家好，今天我们聊一聊美元霸权的未来。最近，美国的国债已经突破了36.2万亿美元，占GDP的121.9%。美元的霸权正面临崩溃的边缘，这不仅仅 是金融危机，而是美元体系的"大限"来临。美国通过美债的庞氏骗局、虚假的强美元和金融炼金术维持着这个危机，而这些问题也暴露了现代货币体系的根 本矛盾。那么中国又是如何应对这一局面的呢？ 首先看荷兰。荷兰的阿斯麦公司是全球唯一能生产光刻机的公司，而光刻机又是半导体产业的核心。美国要求阿斯麦不能把光刻机卖给中国，而中国正是它 的最大客户。拒绝中国的订单后，阿斯麦的研发资金无法保证，利润和股价也大幅下跌。美国无情地威胁："你要是敢卖给中国，就制裁你。"现在的荷兰， 夹在美国和中国之间，日子过得十分艰难。 不要再误判了！现在我们面对的不是传统的金融危机，而是美元体系即将崩溃的"大限"。过去那些贸易摩擦、技术竞争等问题，现在看起来都不算什么。如 今，经济衰退和疯狂印钞交织在一起，形成了一个解不开的"死亡螺旋"。在这场全球博弈的过程中，曾经一统天下的美元霸权正悄悄走向黄昏。这可不是短 期的小调整，而是整个金融体系崩溃的预兆。 很多人还是拿着2008年金融危机的眼光来看现在的局 ...