特朗普对美联储的干预动向 Wmax通过持续跟踪观察到，特朗普正以多重举措试图影响美联储决策。他不仅对美联储主席提出公开批评并施压，更试图解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克，同时 推动其首席经济顾问斯蒂芬·米兰进入联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC），明确要求将利率降低3个百分点。 在Wmax的专业研判中，这一行为呈现出鲜明的两面性解读：支持者将其视为对美联储长期通胀目标失准、群体思维固化的必要改革，认为2024年大选前降 息更偏向民主党连任诉求；批评者则担忧这是典型的党派政治接管，意图复刻保守派主导最高法院的路径，在FOMC构建支持低利率的"超级多数派"。 基准偏向情景：若美联储受政治导向影响，更侧重维持低失业率而非锚定通胀目标，降息频次将较基准情景增加两次。市场会快速识别这一政策转向，导致 通胀预期锚定松动，物价涨幅逐步攀升至3%。 极端接管情景：若美联储完全屈服于政治压力，将政策利率降至1%并持续维持，即便通胀数据恶化也不调整，短期会呈现虚假繁荣。但通胀预期将显著走 高，当物价涨幅突破4%后，市场会将美联储独立性丧失定价为体制性转变，五年期借贷成本可能攀升3个百分点，重现1970年代末期的利率波动。2026年的 表面繁荣 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美联储的独立性根植于一项基本原则：其使命由美国国会而非总统设定，而如何实 现这一使命则由美联储自主掌控。但特朗普显然对此不以为然。 这位美国总统已将驯服美联储的意愿转化为近乎每日的例行攻势。他不再满足于仅仅敦促被他戏称 为"太迟先生"的美联储主席鲍威尔采取行动，还试图罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克，并将其首席经济顾问 之一斯蒂芬·米兰安插进联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)。 在其支持者看来，这早该是对美联储的彻底改革——这个机构不仅四年多来一直未能实现通胀目标，深 陷群体思维困境，更在大选前被质疑为了帮助民主党连任而非稳定经济而采取降息举措。 但在批评者眼中，这是一场赤裸裸的党派权力攫取，企图仿效最高法院保守派占绝对多数的模式，在 FOMC建立支持低利率的绝对主导权。对特朗普而言，只有将利率下调3个百分点才符合他的要求。 通过一项美国经济模型，分析人士模拟了政治干预美联储可能引发的两种情景。 在这两种情景下，短期内都会出现经济增长稳健、失业率走低的虚假繁荣。而通胀疲软、名义利率上升 和增长放缓的痛苦现实则会在一段时间后显现。在更极端的情景下，共和党人将在2028年大选前面临经 济滞胀衰退的困局。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's intention to appoint a new Federal Reserve Chairman, indicating that he has a candidate in mind but has not disclosed the name yet [1][3]. Group 1: Candidate Selection Process - Trump expressed frustration about being unable to immediately replace current Chairman Jerome Powell, stating that someone is preventing him from doing so [2]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has narrowed down the candidate list to several individuals, including current Fed governors and other prominent figures [2][3]. - Mnuchin plans to present a recommendation list to Trump after the Thanksgiving holiday, which may include both surprising names and conventional candidates [3]. Group 2: Current Chairman's Status - Jerome Powell's term as Chairman will end in May next year, but his term as a Fed governor extends until 2028 [4]. - Trump has frequently criticized Powell and the Fed for not being aggressive enough with interest rate cuts since the beginning of his second term [5]. Group 3: Challenges in Restructuring the Fed - Trump faces significant challenges in reshaping the Fed according to his preferences due to the institution's inherent checks and balances [7][8]. - The Fed Chairman is just one of 19 policymakers in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and does not operate under direct executive authority once appointed [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential risks to the independence of the Federal Reserve and the broader implications for the U.S. economy, particularly in light of President Trump's influence and the current AI investment boom [3][4][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen warns that the U.S. risks becoming a "banana republic" due to political pressures on the Federal Reserve, particularly from President Trump, who has called for interest rate cuts and threatened to dismiss Fed Chair Jerome Powell [3][4]. - Yellen emphasizes that Trump's actions could undermine the long-standing separation between fiscal and monetary policy, damaging the Fed's credibility in controlling inflation [3][5]. - The Trump administration is attempting to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook, which Yellen believes would end the Fed's independence, allowing for political interference in monetary policy [6]. Group 2: Economic Risks and AI Investment - Yellen highlights that the current AI investment boom may obscure underlying economic risks, with significant growth in technology investments projected for 2025 [7]. - A report from Oxford Economics predicts that AI-related investments could see annual growth rates of 20% to 40%, the fastest since the late 1990s [7]. - However, Yellen warns that if the tech sector underperforms, the U.S. economy could become vulnerable, recalling the tech bubble burst of 2001-2002, which led to a 70% drop in tech stocks and a decline in business investment [7]. Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - Yellen expresses concern over the potential loss of scientists and researchers due to tensions between U.S. universities and the Trump administration, which could hinder technological advancement and economic growth [7]. - She notes that the financial markets appear stable, but there are signs of tension, particularly with the U.S. dollar depreciating by about 4% since the announcement of Trump's tariffs [8].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a notable increase last week, primarily driven by concerns over the future independence of the Federal Reserve following the planned retirement of Atlanta Fed President Bostic in February. However, the focus of several Fed officials on inflation has lowered expectations for future interest rate cuts [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The U.S. government ended its longest shutdown in history, lasting 43 days, after President Trump signed a temporary funding bill [3]. - A growing number of Federal Reserve officials are adopting a cautious stance on further rate cuts due to inflation concerns, reducing the likelihood of a December rate cut to below 50% [3]. - President Trump announced a reduction in tariffs on various food products, including beef and coffee, in response to rising living costs, indicating a potential easing of trade tensions [3]. - The reopening of the government has alleviated short-term liquidity pressures, but its impact on the gold market is expected to be neutral, with gold remaining in a consolidation phase [2][3]. Investment Products - The Bosera Gold ETF and its linked funds track the performance of gold prices in RMB through investments in gold spot contracts on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, providing investors with diverse investment options in gold [3].

美联储施密德：政府停摆凸显了美联储保持独立性的必要性，因为美联储仍在继续运转。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warns that the American democratic system is facing "fatal danger," threatening the fundamental basis of economic prosperity [1] Group 1: Rule of Law - Yellen emphasizes the importance of the rule of law for capitalism, citing research by Nobel laureates Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson, which indicates that societies with weak rule of law struggle to achieve economic growth [3] - She expresses concern that economic policy decisions are increasingly based on personal will and resentment rather than established rules, leading to a lack of fair treatment and non-political enforcement of laws [3] Group 2: Business Climate - Yellen notes a troubling trend where fear is suppressing normal policy debate within the business community, with individuals and companies hesitant to express negative views due to potential political retaliation [3] - The White House responded to Yellen's concerns by highlighting perceived failures of the Biden administration, including immigration law enforcement and inflation management [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Independence - Yellen is particularly worried about unprecedented pressures on the Federal Reserve, including former President Trump's calls for interest rate cuts and attempts to dismiss Fed officials [4] - She criticizes Trump's actions as breaking long-standing norms of non-interference in monetary policy, which could undermine the Fed's mission of maximizing employment and stabilizing inflation [4] Group 4: Economic Performance and Risks - Despite Yellen's warnings, the current U.S. economic fundamentals appear strong, with robust consumer spending and a recovering economy, as evidenced by a nearly 15% increase in the S&P 500 index this year [5] - Yellen cautions that the current AI investment boom may obscure underlying risks, particularly the negative impact of repressive policies on the academic environment and the loss of scientific talent [5] - She warns that the core drivers of U.S. economic growth, such as technological leadership and entrepreneurial vitality, may face long-term threats due to these trends [5]

来源：南篱论金 2025.11.14 周五 文/南篱 各位好，我是南篱，一个财经人。 我回来啦！ 这两天市场可不怎么好过呢，周三和周四的黄金，属实是有点不正常的。其他品种呢，都是慢慢悠悠在走，就黄金上蹿下跳的厉害。 特别是周三，由于突发的事件，直冲云霄，拉开周尾变局的序幕。众所周知，我也数次提醒过各位，冬令时美盘11点的时候大概率会有变盘，但是这次变盘 也来的太配合了点吧。 博斯蒂克说他要退休，黄金腾的一下就上去了。也行，正常。博斯蒂克嘛。美联储的理事，当他退休的时候，现在的市场就会在考虑到是否理事席位又将被 川子的人把控，一旦理事席位里鸽派人士较多，大厦倾向于不断降息。那这样的话，美联储还是否会有独立性呢？ 一则呢，是对这个独立性的疑问。二则呢，其实也是对于持将持续降息的这种恐慌情绪，带着黄金上去。 周四呢，也是周四是由于美老美开门事情。之前我在直播当中跟各位去提到过这件事情，如果真的开门，那么对避险来说是消散。也是因为前一天涨的比较 狠，后一天进行一些调整是理所应当的事情。 在技术面当中，日线的布林带中轨既然被站上去了，进一步往上去冲，也就充当做了支撑，也就是说今天最关键的一部分，还是中轨的70~80的得 ...

11月13日，据路透社报道，知情官员透露，欧洲金融稳定官员正在讨论通过整合美国以外央行持有的美 元储备，建立一个替代美联储流动性支持机制的方案。此举的目的是在特朗普政府时期减少对美国的依 赖。相关磋商目前仍处于工作组层面，尚未到达欧洲央行决策层，且涉及欧元区内外的多家央行。欧洲 央行和美联储发言人均拒绝置评。 据路透社，一位高级央行官员指出，美联储若暗示停止货币互换，可能引发全球金融系统广泛压力。在 此情况下，央行将难以支持将美元储备借给他人。 与此同时，美联储面临来自美国总统特朗普要求降息的政治压力。特朗普政府一直对美联储政策持高度 批评态度，反复敦促美联储大幅降息。总统曾威胁撤换鲍威尔，并实际解雇了美联储理事Lisa Cook， 指控其涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈。这些举措引发了外界对政府维护美联储独立性承诺的担忧，使新任美联储主 席的任命备受关注。 美联储主席鲍威尔的任期将于明年5月结束。此前10月，美国财政部长贝森特（Scott Bessent）经过一系 列面试后，已将美联储主席候选人名单从11人缩减至5人，预计最终人选可能在明年1月提名美联储成 员。贝森特表示，他将在今年12月向特朗普提交一份候选人名单，以供挑 ...

黄金方面：昨天（11月13日）上午，美国众议院投票通过了美国联邦政府的拨款法案，为期43天的"停摆"宣告结束。特朗普表示此次停摆造成 了约1.5万亿美元的损失，后续即将公布的经济数据需密切留意。 百利好特约智昇研究黄金高级分析师欧文认为，美联储主席鲍威尔将在明年5月到期，同时多位美联储高官也将卸任，美联储内部分歧加大使 得投资者的担忧情绪加重。 技术面：黄金昨日（11月13日）冲高回落，美盘时段快速下挫，或将开启调整走势。下方若跌破4145美元则可以看向4080美元一线，日内关 注4195美元的多空分界线。 技术面：原油昨日在下跌后维持低位震荡，小时图从10月24日以来保持震荡下行，下跌结构仍未改变，表现偏弱势。短线来看，预计继续维 持低位震荡的概率大，上方关注59.30美元的阻力，下方关注58美元一线的支撑。 铜方面：铜价小时图在近一周维持震荡上行，昨日再次小幅破高，但回落过程中跌破了5.04美元的前低点，走势转弱，进一步回落的概率大。 日内上方关注5.06美元的阻力。 8月份，特朗普试图解雇美联储理事库克，美国最高法院表示，将在2026年1月21日进行口头辩论。这一结果将会直接影响美联储的独立性， 担忧情 ...