证券研究报告 晨会 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年12月24日 华源晨会精粹 20251224 公用环保 算力革命与能源革命共振，美国缺电背景下的电力投资机遇：OpenAI 已 将其截至 2033 年算力投资规模上调至 250GW，2030 年美国最高用电负荷有望突破 1000GW（目前在 820GW 上下），需求大幅上调导致美国可能出现缺电问题。电源 侧可能通过建设气电、核电、储能、SOFC 等形式解决，同时电网建设也有望同步。 此外衍生的问题是：（1）如果美国算力投资继续上调或倾尽全力也无法满足算力需 求，行业发展将如何演化？（2）中美科技竞争背景下，算力投资对中国电力供需有 何影响。发电侧：气电、核电是主力电源，储能、SOFC 作为应急手段。我们测算 在 2030 年 1000GW 的最高预测下，考虑/不考虑既定机组退役时，美国电力缺口为 182/89GW。电网侧：电网投资上调，国内企业或迎出口机遇。电源设备：800VDC 是演化趋势，SST 或将是长期解决方案。国内篇：考虑中国 AIDC 投资与美国相当， 中性情景下 AIDC 和充电桩将拉动十五五用电量复合增长率约 1.1pct、乐观 ...

华源证券发布研报称，OpenAI已将其截至2033年算力投资规模上调至250GW，2030年美国最高用电负 荷有望突破1000GW(目前在820GW上下)，需求大幅上调导致美国可能出现缺电问题。据测算，在2030 年1000GW的最高预测下，考虑/不考虑既定机组退役时，美国电力缺口为182/89GW。美国电力投资增 长对全球产能产生虹吸效应，中国对非美国家和地区出口有望迎来机遇。此外，中美科技竞争背景下， AI有望带动国内电力供需重回紧张周期。 华源证券主要观点如下： 美国电网投资预期上调：2013年美国电网投资首次突破200亿美元，但随后多年保持在200-250亿美元的 区间。2024年起电网投资大规模增加，当年投资额首次突破300亿美元。维持电网可靠性是当前美国电 网投资主要驱动力，而由于负荷增长带来的电网投资占比较低。根据EEI预测，2025/2026/2027年美国 电网投资分别达到378亿、427亿和434亿美元。伊顿、ABB等相关公司对美销售额及在手订单快速增 加。 中国2022—2024年变压器对美出口金额同比增长65%、25%、44%，25Q1-Q3同比增长33%。25Q1-Q3对 非美国地区 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in computing power investment, with OpenAI raising its projected capacity investment to 250GW by 2033, leading to a potential electricity shortage in the U.S. as demand is expected to exceed 1000GW by 2030 [3][12] - The power generation side will rely on gas and nuclear power as primary sources, with storage and solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) serving as emergency measures [3][29] - The report anticipates a substantial increase in U.S. grid investment, with projections indicating investments will exceed $30 billion in 2024 and continue to rise in subsequent years, presenting export opportunities for domestic companies [3][29] - The evolution towards 800VDC power systems is noted, with SST (solid-state transformers) expected to be a long-term solution for power supply challenges [3][29] - The domestic market is expected to experience a tightening of electricity supply due to AI investments, suggesting potential investment opportunities in domestic power and grid equipment manufacturers [3][29] Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - The report discusses the upward adjustment of computing power investments and the resulting significant electricity supply-demand imbalance in the U.S. [6] 2. Power Generation Side - Gas and nuclear power are identified as the main power sources, while storage and SOFC are positioned as emergency solutions [6][29] - The projected electricity gap by 2030 is estimated at 182GW, considering the retirement of existing power plants [3][29] 3. Grid Investment - U.S. grid investment is expected to increase significantly, with forecasts indicating investments reaching $37.8 billion by 2027 [3][29] - Domestic companies are likely to benefit from increased exports due to rising U.S. grid investments [3][29] 4. Power Equipment - The transition to 800VDC systems is highlighted as a trend, with SST potentially becoming a long-term solution for power supply issues [3][29] 5. Domestic Market - AI investments are projected to lead to a tightening of electricity supply in China, creating new investment opportunities in power and grid equipment sectors [3][29] 6. Investment Analysis - Detailed investment analysis and recommendations are provided in Chapter 6 of the report [3]

新能源产业则呈现蓬勃发展之势。大同新能源和可再生能源装机容量已突破1000万千瓦，在总装机中占 比超过56%，稳居山西省首位。国家布局的晋北采煤沉陷区新能源基地建设稳步推进，未来每年可向京 津冀输送清洁电力约270亿千瓦时。此外，全市储能业态全面发展，建成并网独立储能项目规模位居全 省第一。 产业链延伸与能源网络建设同步推进，转型成效显著。千万吨级煤矸石高值化利用示范工程取得突破， 为煤基固废资源化提供了"大同方案"。左云县煤基活性炭产能占全国三分之一，产品远销海外。浑源抽 水蓄能电站、大怀线特高压工程等重大基础设施，进一步巩固了大同作为京津冀绿色能源供应基地的战 略地位。 为保障晋北基地这一省级重点工程高效推进，大同建立了省级季度调度、市级月度协调的联动机制，开 辟审批绿色通道，助力项目跑出建设"加速度"。从传统能源绿色升级到新能源规模化发展，再到能源网 络强化与产业链延伸，大同正走出一条资源型城市转型与能源安全保障协同并进的新路径。 （文章来源：中国新闻网） 中新网大同12月22日电 隆冬时节，三晋大地寒意正浓，但山西大同的能源建设现场却是一片火热。近 日，在国家能源集团国电电力大同湖东电厂，1号机组汽轮 ...

"经济总量相继跨越2万亿元、2.5万亿元大关，5年增量预计超过7500亿元，相当于再造了一个'太原+大 同'的经济体量。"山西省发展改革委党组书记、主任陈磊介绍山西"十四五"发展成就时称，5年间，山 西坚定有序推进转型发展，经济发展的质量效益稳步提高。 作为能源大省，深入开展能源革命，是山西转型发展的核心抓手。保障国家能源安全、让老百姓用上更 清洁、更安全、更经济的能源，是"十四五"时期山西能源工作的头等大事。 "十四五"期间，山西完成了能源革命，从"煤炭资源大省"走向"综合能源大省"，煤炭从"传统开采"走 向"绿色智能"，电力从"煤电为主"走向"绿电领跑"，天然气从"单一开采"走向"三气共采"，用能管理 从"保障供给"走向"提质增效"。五个"走向"上的深层变革，为山西全方位转型提供了坚实支撑。 中经记者 黄永旭 北京报道 作为全国首个能源革命综合改革试点，"地区生产总值从2020年的1.765万亿元跃升至2024年的2.549万亿 元"，在"十四五"收官之际，山西交出了一份令人瞩目的成绩单。 面向"十五五"，山西仍保持着清醒判断。日前，《中共山西省委关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个 五年规划的建议》（以下 ...

Group 1 - Platinum has become a new favorite in the international precious metals market, with prices soaring to $1,959 per ounce, nearly doubling in value [1] - The surge in platinum prices is driven by resource scarcity and significant changes in the energy landscape, marking a major industrial reshuffle [1] - South Africa, which produces about 70% of the world's platinum, has faced production challenges due to severe weather and ongoing power issues, leading to a 13% drop in annual output [2][6] Group 2 - The current supply of platinum is critically low, with available stock only sufficient for three months, exacerbating the demand-supply gap [3] - The hydrogen energy sector is rapidly expanding, requiring substantial amounts of platinum as a catalyst, with projections indicating that by 2025, the hydrogen industry alone will consume 50 tons of platinum [9][11] - The demand for platinum is further fueled by a rise in consumer interest in platinum jewelry, particularly in the Chinese market, where sales have increased significantly [16] Group 3 - Recent movements in the platinum market include the transfer of physical platinum from London to New York by U.S. entities, reflecting strategic positioning amid global supply chain reconfigurations [19] - The rapid increase in platinum prices has attracted significant interest from investors, but the mining industry faces challenges in ramping up production, which may take years to improve [21] - The current platinum market dynamics represent a shift from being an overlooked precious metal to a key asset in the global resource competition, driven by factors such as great power rivalry and capital influx [23]

钨的价格在以前所未有的速度飙升。 钨粉突破每吨100万元，年内涨幅超过216%；黑钨精矿、仲钨酸铵的价格曲线同样陡峭上扬。 这组数字带来的冲击是巨大的。 从矿山到工厂，从国际贸易商到终端制造商，一整条庞大的产业链都感受到了强烈的震动。 不像金银那样备受瞩目的贵金属，这种被誉为"工业牙齿"的金属，长久以来都默然地支撑着现代制造业 的运转。 无论是切削钢铁的刀具、穿透坚固装甲的弹芯，还是硅片切割的细丝、航空发动机的耐热部件，个中均 有其身影。 它的价值，根植于其物理特性的不可替代性，如极高的硬度、惊人的熔点和密度。 只是，当全球经济的竞赛焦点全面转向高端制造与能源革命时，这种不可替代性便从技术参数，骤然升 级为战略焦点。 要把企业做得好，做得大，就无法离开全球化的影响。 原材料企业亦如是。 眼下，一家华南硬质合金企业的负责人可能就面对着类似情况所带来的压力，一边是原材料报价单上每 日刷新的数字，另一边是欧美客户催促订单的急件。 导致的成本骤增是问题之一，但还有两个更为根本的疑问——这是短期投机带来的泡沫，还是一个长期 趋势结构性转折的信号？当大国之间的竞争从芯片设计软件与光刻机，向下蔓延至最基础的原材料领 域，谁 ...

近日举行的中央经济工作会议上，习近平总书记的一席话切中肯綮—— "因地制宜，本质就是实事求是。" 围绕发展新质生产力、生态环保、农村改厕等，总书记阐明因地制宜的重要性，强调落实中需要结 合实际、因地制宜，但不能自行其是、搞本位主义。 实事求是，是中国共产党人认识世界、改造世界的根本要求。因地制宜，自觉按规律办事，是中国 共产党实事求是思想路线的体现。 我国幅员辽阔、人口众多，各地区资源禀赋不同，发展的状况、面临的情况问题不同，在全国大棋 局中的定位也不同。党中央的决策部署着眼的是全局、把握的是大势、体现的是方向、谋划的是根本， 让决策部署落地见效，关键要紧密结合自身实际，尊重差异、尊重规律，创造性开展工作。 习近平总书记曾讲述过这样一段往事："我在正定工作的时候，经济学家于光远提出一个概念—— 限于当时中国经济实力和条件，要多考虑实现现代化的'穷办法'。我在'穷办法'后面又加上了一个'土办 法'，就是适应当地的办法，不一定要大而全。""土办法"蕴含的恰是因地制宜、因势利导的道理，是从 认识规律到运用规律的转化。 高质量发展是全面建设社会主义现代化国家的首要任务，这是战略的坚定性。如何实现高质量发 展？这就要求 ...

加快建设新型能源体系 党的二十届四中全会通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提出，加快建设新型能源 体系。这是党中央深刻把握全球能源发展大势、深入实施能源安全新战略的重大决策，是新时代新征程推动能源高质量发 展、建设能源强国的部署要求。"十五五"时期是我国新型能源体系建设"夯基垒台"的关键时期，必须坚持系统观念，统筹 发展和安全，兼顾当前和长远，合理把握节奏力度，加快建设清洁低碳安全高效的新型能源体系，为推动高质量发展、推 进中国式现代化提供能源支撑。 一、加快建设新型能源体系意义重大 （一）加快建设新型能源体系是深入推进能源革命、建设能源强国的必然要求。2014年，习近平总书记创造性提出"四个 革命、一个合作"能源安全新战略，推动能源消费革命、供给革命、技术革命、体制革命，全方位加强国际合作，为新时代 能源发展指明了前进方向、提供了根本遵循。2021年，习近平总书记提出"加快建设能源强国"。党的二十大和二十届三中 全会都明确提出要"加快规划建设新型能源体系"。加快建设新型能源体系与深入推进能源安全新战略、建设能源强国部署 一脉相承。能源安全新战略是建设新型能源体系的科学指引；建 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the achievements and future plans of Shanxi Province in energy development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing the transition towards a cleaner, safer, and more efficient energy system, while ensuring national energy security and supporting economic growth [4][10]. Group 1: Transition to Comprehensive Energy Province - Shanxi has shifted from being a "coal resource province" to a "comprehensive energy province," enhancing energy supply resilience and security through the development of coal, electricity, natural gas, and renewable energy [5]. - The province produced approximately 6.5 billion tons of coal, accounting for nearly 30% of the national output, and net electricity output exceeded 740 billion kWh, supporting the national "West-East Power Transmission" strategy [5][6]. Group 2: Green and Intelligent Coal Mining - The coal industry in Shanxi has advanced towards "green and intelligent" mining, with hundreds of mines adopting intelligent mining technologies, significantly reducing labor intensity and enhancing safety [6]. - The proportion of advanced coal production capacity reached 84%, an increase of 15 percentage points compared to five years ago [6]. Group 3: Clean Electricity Development - Shanxi has strengthened the role of coal power while significantly increasing the share of clean energy, with clean power generation capacity surpassing coal power for the first time in January 2023 [7]. - The province has closed over 4 million kW of outdated coal power units and established the first provincial-level electricity spot market in the country [7]. Group 4: Natural Gas Development - The province has developed a multi-gas extraction approach, establishing six gas fields with an annual output of 1 billion cubic meters, significantly enhancing natural gas supply [8]. - The total length of natural gas pipelines reached 9,259 kilometers, improving accessibility for residents [8]. Group 5: Energy Management and Efficiency - Shanxi has implemented a dual control system for energy consumption, achieving an average energy consumption growth rate of 2.3%, supporting an average GDP growth of 5.3% [10]. - The province has established energy management archives for 1,156 key energy-consuming enterprises, promoting precise energy management [24]. Group 6: Renewable Energy Growth - From 2021 to 2024, Shanxi's wind and solar power installed capacity has grown at an average annual rate of 16.8%, with renewable energy and clean energy installed capacity exceeding 50% [11]. - The province has launched multiple policies to support renewable energy development, achieving significant breakthroughs in energy structure optimization [13]. Group 7: Future Plans for Energy Development - Shanxi aims to achieve a 60% share of renewable and clean energy installed capacity by the end of the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on building a modern energy system that is clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient [11][30]. - The province plans to double the production and value of unconventional natural gas by 2030, contributing to national energy security and carbon neutrality goals [29][35].