新华财经北京8月20日电（高二山）人民银行20日开展6160亿元7天逆回购操作，操作利率为1.40%，与此前持平；鉴于当日有1185亿元7 天期逆回购到期，公开市场实现净投放4975亿元。 上海银行间同业拆放利率（Shibor）短期品种涨势趋缓，14天品种微跌。具体来看，隔夜Shibor上涨0.90BP，报1.4730%；7天Shibor上涨 1.70BP，报1.5340%；14天Shibor下跌0.30BP，报1.5960%。 | | | | 2025-08-20 11:00 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期限 | Shibor(%) | 涨跌(BP) | | t | O/N | 1.4730 | 0.90 | | ⇒ | 1W | 1.5340 | 1.70 | | ゃ | 2W | 1.5960 | 0.30 | | t | 1M | 1.5320 | 0.40 | | 价 | 3M | 1.5500 | 0.00 | | 价 | 6M | 1.6100 | 0.00 | | ゃ | 9M | 1.6400 | 0.30 | | ↑ | 1Y | 1.6490 | 0. ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 580.3 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net injection of 465.7 billion yuan after 114.6 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for short-term products continued to rise, with the overnight Shibor increasing by 2.80 basis points to 1.4640%, the 7-day Shibor rising by 3.40 basis points to 1.5170%, and the 14-day Shibor increasing by 6.20 basis points to 1.5990% [1][2] - In the interbank pledged repo market, various products continued to show a slight upward trend, with the R007 transaction ratio rising to 11.7%. The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 increased by 2.3 basis points and 4.4 basis points, respectively, while DR007 and R007 rose by 3.1 basis points and 5.5 basis points [4] Group 2 - The money market showed a tight funding situation throughout the day, with major banks reducing lending volumes and a strong demand for borrowing from banking institutions. Overnight pledged rate certificates traded around 1.60%-1.63%, while 7-day pledged rate certificates traded around 1.55%-1.58% [10] - As of 5:30 PM on August 19, there were 49 interbank certificates of deposit issued, with an actual issuance amount of 26.06 billion yuan [10] - In the primary market for certificates of deposit, except for 1-month and 6-month maturities, other maturities were all due on working days. The secondary market for certificates of deposit showed a downward trend, with yields for various maturities declining compared to the previous day's close [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the interbank currency market experienced an increase in trading volume while the balance decreased, with most repo rates declining and large commercial banks' average net lending balance falling [1][2][3] Group 2 - In July, the total trading volume in the currency market reached 185.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 12.4%, while the average daily transaction decreased by 2.2% to 8.1 trillion yuan [2] - The central bank intensified liquidity provision, resulting in an overall balanced and slightly loose funding environment, with a net injection of 468 billion yuan in the open market throughout the month [3][4] - The average daily balance in the currency market decreased to 12.8 trillion yuan, down 2.1% month-on-month, while the average net lending balance of large commercial banks fell by 4.0% [5] Group 3 - Bond issuance and average daily trading volume decreased month-on-month, with total bond issuance in July at 5.29 trillion yuan, a decline of 0.6% from the previous month, but a year-on-year increase of 27.6% [6] - The bond market saw a fluctuation in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield ranging between 1.64% and 1.75%, and the yield curve steepening [8] - The interest rate swap curve shifted from inverted to upward sloping, with daily average transaction volume increasing by 44.8% in July [9]

Group 1 - The overall trading volume in the money market increased, while the average balance decreased, with most repo rates declining and the average net lending balance of large commercial banks falling [2][3][5] - In July, the total trading volume in the money market reached 185.2 trillion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 12.4%, while the average daily trading volume was 8.1 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.2% [2] - The central bank increased liquidity support, resulting in a generally balanced and loose funding environment, with a net injection of 468 billion yuan in the open market throughout the month [3][4] Group 2 - Bond issuance and average daily trading volume decreased month-on-month, with government bond yields rising overall and the yield curve steepening [6][8] - In July, 5.29 trillion yuan of bonds were issued, a month-on-month decrease of 0.6%, while net financing increased by 169.5 billion yuan, a rise of 7.9% [6] - The bond market saw yields fluctuating upwards, with the 10-year government bond yield ranging between 1.64% and 1.75%, and the curve steepening [8] Group 3 - The interest rate swap curve shifted from inverted to upward sloping, with an increase in trading volume [9] - In July, the average daily trading volume of RMB interest rate swaps increased by 44.8%, with a nominal principal total of 4.6 trillion yuan [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Yields**: On August 18, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields in the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.334%, 4.737%, 3.447% respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.033 (Italy) to 0.041 (UK), weekly changes from - 0.004 (Japan) to 0.173 (UK), monthly changes from - 0.126 (Switzerland) to 0.155 (France), and annual changes from - 0.274 (Japan) to 0.760 (UK) [2]. - **2 - Year Treasury Yields**: On August 18, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields in the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.740%, 3.959%, 1.956% respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.024 (Australia) to 0.070 (US), weekly changes from - 0.200 (US) to 0.186 (Italy), monthly changes from - 0.703 (Italy) to 0.553 (Japan), and annual changes showed various trends [2]. - **Exchange Rates**: On August 18, 2025, the US dollar - to - emerging - economy currency exchange rates such as South African rand, Brazilian real, etc. had different values. The latest changes ranged from - 0.69% (Russian ruble) to 0.65% (South African rand), weekly changes from - 2.35% (South African rand) to 0.38% (South Korean won), monthly changes from - 8.22% (Thai baht) to 0.77% (South Korean won), and annual changes also varied [2]. - **Stock Indices**: On August 18, 2025, major global stock indices like the Dow Jones, S&P 500, etc. had different closing values. The latest changes ranged from - 0.50% (Mexican index) to 0.21% (Nasdaq), weekly changes from - 0.18% (UK index) to 8.70% (Spanish index), monthly changes from 8.78% (Mexican index) to 44.46% (Spanish index), and annual changes also showed different trends [2]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: The latest changes in credit bond indices ranged from - 0.08% to 0.08%, weekly changes from - 0.06% to 0.56%, monthly changes from - 0.13% to 2.43%, and annual changes from 4.84% to 15.88% [2][3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 were 3728.03, 4239.41, 2838.87, 2606.20, and 6668.17 respectively, with daily changes of 0.85%, 0.88%, 0.21%, 2.84%, and 1.52% [4]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX were 13.54, 11.56, 31.94, 27.34, and 20.08 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.08, 0.04, 0.37, 0.00, and - 0.04 [4]. - **Risk Premium**: The 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 and German DAX were - 0.68 and 2.22 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.02 and 0.04 [4]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest values of fund flows in A - shares, main board, SME board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 were 78.73, - 179.13, N/A, 216.70, and 110.91 respectively, and the 5 - day average values were - 306.54, - 333.88, N/A, 26.76, and 51.22 [4]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, SME board, and ChiNext were 27641.63, 6353.66, 1621.58, 5485.68, and 8295.86 respectively, with环比 changes of 5195.51, 1166.79, 199.53, 1082.87, and 1773.47 [4]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, and IC were - 1.61, 9.53, and - 60.17 respectively, with basis ratios of - 0.04%, 0.34%, and - 0.90% [4] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices**: The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 108.015, 105.455, 107.865, and 105.380 respectively, with daily changes of 0.00% [5]. - **Funding Rates**: The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.5037%, 1.5030%, and 1.5490% respectively, with daily changes of 1.00 BP, 1.00 BP, and 0.00 BP [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The central bank's attitude towards protecting the liquidity is clear, and the capital interest rate is expected to decline in August [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overseas Key Monetary Market Indicator Change Tracking - The Fed did not cut interest rates in July, and the short - term interest rate of US Treasury bonds remained stable. Since July, the 3 - month US Treasury bond rate has been stable, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September. The US federal funds rate and SOFR rate have been operating stably [2][6]. - The benchmark interest rates of Japan, the eurozone, and the US as of specific dates are 0.5% (Japan: policy target rate of base money on 2025 - 01 - 24), 2.15% (eurozone: benchmark interest rate of main refinancing operations on 2025 - 6 - 5), and 4.25 - 4.50% (US: federal funds target rate range on 2024 - 12 - 18) [8]. Domestic Key Monetary Market Indicator Change Tracking Price Indicators - After crossing the end of the half - year, in July, the average values of repurchase rates in the inter - bank and exchange markets mostly declined. R001, GC001, R007, and GC007 monthly average values changed by - 3BP, - 25BP, - 10BP, and - 14BP respectively [2][10][15]. - The monthly average values of short - term bond yields mostly declined. For 1 - year short - term bonds such as 1 - year Treasury bonds, 1 - year China Development Bank bonds, and 1 - year AAA commercial paper, their yields decreased to different degrees [15][36]. - In July, the average value of DR007 decreased slightly. The average values of DR001 and DR007 were 1.39% and 1.52%, changing by 0BP and - 6BP respectively compared with the previous month. The 1 - day and 7 - day spread averages of R and DR changed by - 4BP [22]. - The average value of exchange repurchase rates mostly declined in July. The average values of GC001 and GC007 were 1.45% and 1.54%, down 25BP and 14BP respectively from the previous month [26]. - The average monthly interest rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit (CDs) decreased slightly in July. The interest rates of 1 - year high - grade and low - grade CDs both decreased by 3BP [31]. - The 7 - day annualized yield of money funds declined. The 7 - day average annualized yield of Yu'E Bao decreased to 1.09% in July, and the average 7 - day annualized yields of Yu'E Bao and the top ten money funds decreased by - 9BP and - 7BP respectively compared with the previous month [39]. Quantity Indicators - In July, the overnight trading volumes in the inter - bank and exchange markets decreased compared with the previous month, while their proportions increased. The average daily trading volume of R001 in the inter - bank market was 6.70 trillion, accounting for 88.3%, and that of GC001 in the exchange market was 1.86 trillion, accounting for 87.0% [44]. - The average monthly year - on - year balance of bonds to be repurchased in the inter - bank and exchange markets decreased compared with the previous month. The year - on - year balance of bonds to be repurchased in the inter - bank market decreased by 3% in July, and that in the exchange market decreased by 2% [51]. - The excess deposit reserve ratio decreased compared with the previous month. It is estimated that the excess deposit reserve ratios in July and August are 1.3% and 1.2% respectively. In July, fiscal deposits increased seasonally by 770 billion yuan due to tax payment periods and high government bond issuance [48][50]. Capital Outlook Five - Channel Prediction - **M0**: In July, M0 increased seasonally by 9.73 billion yuan, and it is estimated to increase by 5.5 billion yuan in August [63]. - **Legal Deposit Reserves**: In July, RMB loans declined for the first time in nearly 20 years, and financial institutions' RMB deposits increased by 500 billion yuan. It is expected that deposits will increase by 2500 billion yuan in August, resulting in an increase of 155 billion yuan in legal deposit reserves [64]. - **Fiscal Deposits**: Fiscal deposits increased by 770 billion yuan in July due to tax payment periods and high - volume government bond issuance. It is expected to increase by 600 billion yuan in August [67]. - **Foreign Exchange Holdings**: Due to the suspension of China - US tariff negotiations for 90 days, the increase of the average global tariff rate by the US, and the new 40% transit tariff, foreign exchange holdings are expected to decrease by 70 billion yuan in August [72]. - **Open Market Operations**: The central bank is expected to conduct net injections to maintain a loose capital market. In July, the central bank conducted net injections through open - market operations and买断式repurchase operations. It is expected to conduct net injections of 400 billion yuan in August through these two methods, and the excess deposit reserve ratio is estimated to be 1.2% in August after comprehensive consideration of the five - channel changes [80]. Main Conclusion - Historically, in August, most of the inter - bank overnight repurchase rates declined. The median monthly average change of R001 in the past three years was - 4BP, and that of R007 was - 2BP [81]. - The central bank's operation on the first - round local bond issuance day after the restoration of VAT on government bonds and financial bonds shows a clear attitude of maintaining a stable and loose liquidity. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is high, which provides space for China's monetary policy. It is expected that the market interest rate will decline seasonally in August [84][85].

新华财经北京8月13日电（高二山）人民银行13日开展1185亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.40%，与此前持平；鉴于当日有1385亿 元7天期逆回购到期，公开市场实现净回笼200亿元。 上海银行间同业拆放利率（Shibor）短期品种延续横盘整理。具体来看，隔夜Shibor上涨0.00BP，报1.3150%；7天Shibor上涨0.10BP，报 1.4340%；14天Shibor上涨1.70BP，报1.4730%。 | | | | 2025-08-13 11:00 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期限 | Shibor(%) | 涨跌(BP) | | t | O/N | 1.3150 | 0.00 | | ⇒ | 1W | 1.4340 | 0.10 | | 中 | 2W | 1.4730 | 1.70 | | 中 | 1M | 1.5260 | 0.10 | | ゃ | 3M | 1.5480 | 0.00 | | ⇒ | 6M | 1.6090 | 0.00 | | t | 9M | 1.6300 | 0.10 | | | 1Y | 1.6400 | 0.20 | 上海银 ...

新华财经北京8月12日电 人民银行12日开展1146亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.40%，与此前持平；鉴于当日有1607亿元7天期逆回 购到期，公开市场实现净回笼461亿元。 上海银行间同业拆放利率（Shibor）短期品种基本保持不动。具体来看，隔夜Shibor上涨0.00BP，报1.3150%；7天Shibor上涨0.10BP，报 1.4330%；14天Shibor上涨0.10BP，报1.4560%。 | | | | 2025-08-12 11:00 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期限 | Shibor(%) | 涨跌(BP) | | 1 | O/N | 1.3150 | 0.00 | | ⇒ | 1W | 1.4330 | 0.10 | | 个 | 2W | 1.4560 | 0.10 | | t | 1M | 1.5270 | 0.00 | | t | 3M | 1.5480 | 0.10 | | 1 | 6M | 1.6090 | 0.10 | | ↑ | 9M | 1.6290 | 0.10 | | f | 1Y | 1.6380 | 0.00 | 据上海国际 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 112 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net withdrawal of 432.8 billion yuan due to 544.8 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed slight fluctuations, with the overnight Shibor rising by 0.06 basis points to 1.3150%, while the 7-day Shibor decreased by 0.36 basis points to 1.4320% [2][3] - In the interbank pledged repo market, various rates experienced minor fluctuations, with the R007 transaction ratio slightly increasing to 8.2% [4] Group 2 - The overall funding environment on August 11 was described as relaxed, with overnight rates trading in the range of 1.41% to 1.45% and 7-day rates around 1.44% [9] - A total of 137 interbank certificates of deposit were issued on August 11, with an actual issuance volume of 333.88 billion yuan, indicating a generally weak sentiment in the primary market [10]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 122 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on August 8, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4 billion yuan due to 126 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - In the week, the People's Bank of China performed a total of 1,126.7 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 1,663.2 billion yuan maturing, leading to a net withdrawal of 536.5 billion yuan [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for short-term products remained stable, with the overnight Shibor down by 0.06 basis points to 1.3144%, while the 7-day Shibor increased by 0.16 basis points to 1.4356% [1][2] Group 2 - In the interbank pledged repo market, short-term funding rates were mostly unchanged from the previous day, with DR001 and R001 weighted average rates decreasing by 0.3 basis points and 0.9 basis points, respectively [6] - The weighted average rates for DR007 and R007 fell by 2.6 basis points and 2.7 basis points, respectively, with transaction volumes increasing [6] - The market showed a relaxed funding environment on August 8, with overnight lending rates around 1.30% and deposit rates for certificates of deposit ranging from 1.35% to 1.38% [11] Group 3 - On August 8, a total of 148 interbank certificates of deposit were issued, with an actual issuance volume of 274.11 billion yuan [12] - The primary market for certificates of deposit continued to show strong demand, while the secondary market exhibited fluctuations with slight declines in yield rates [12] - The 1-month national bank certificate of deposit closed at 1.46%, down approximately 2.5 basis points from the previous day [12]