Group 1 - China's recent trade countermeasures against Canada have caused significant turmoil, particularly affecting the canola seed exports, which faced a major setback due to a new margin system implemented by China [1] - Canada exported 4 million tons of canola seeds, and the new measures have nearly eliminated their chances of continuing exports to China, which is critical as 65% of Canada's canola seed exports rely on the Chinese market [2][3] - The Canadian government, represented by Prime Minister Carney, has expressed a willingness to engage in constructive negotiations with China, but there has been no progress from the Chinese side, leading to increased anxiety among Canadian farmers [3][4] Group 2 - The Saskatchewan Premier has announced plans to visit China to persuade the Chinese government to lift the anti-dumping measures on Canadian canola seeds, as the current situation poses a severe threat to the Canadian canola industry during the harvest season [4] - There are doubts regarding the effectiveness of the Premier's visit, as many believe that China's response is more of a retaliation against Canada's unfriendly actions rather than a genuine negotiation opportunity [4][5] - Canada's previous unfriendly measures towards China, including unwarranted tariffs, have severely damaged mutual trust, making it difficult to rebuild relationships and complicating future negotiations [5][6] Group 3 - China has diversified its canola seed import sources, with Australian canola seeds now entering the Chinese market, which poses a competitive threat to Canadian exports [5] - Recent purchases of approximately 50,000 tons of Australian canola seeds by Chinese companies highlight the advantages in price and supply stability, further impacting Canada's market share [5] - Successful negotiations could signal a thaw in China-Canada trade relations and open pathways for resolving other trade disputes, while a breakdown in talks would exacerbate trade tensions and hinder cooperation [6]

Group 1 - China has implemented significant measures against Canada and Japan following a new tariff truce with the US, signaling that countries compromising Chinese interests for US relations will face consequences [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has decided to impose a temporary anti-dumping deposit of 75.8% on canola seed imports from Canada, based on a year-long investigation that confirmed dumping practices [1][4] - Canada's response to the anti-dumping measures has been one of disappointment, yet they acknowledge the retaliatory nature of China's actions after previously imposing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, steel, and aluminum [1][4] Group 2 - The canola seed industry is crucial for Canada, with annual exports nearing CAD 5 billion, and the sudden high deposit has nearly blocked their market access to China, causing prices to plummet [4] - China's countermeasures extend beyond canola seeds, imposing high deposits on halogenated butyl rubber from Canada (40.5%) and Japan (30.1%), and initiating a new anti-dumping investigation on Canadian pea starch [6] - Japan's cooperation with the US in various sectors, including reducing reliance on Chinese rare earths and imposing semiconductor export restrictions, has led to China's retaliatory actions, despite Japan's attempts to maintain a friendly stance [8] Group 3 - China's actions serve as a warning to other nations, emphasizing the need for careful consideration when choosing between US interests and Chinese relations, as demonstrated by the cases of Canada and Japan [10][13] - The overarching message from China is clear: countries that attempt to sacrifice Chinese interests for US dealings will face similar repercussions as Canada and Japan [13]

Group 1 - Canada has faced economic and diplomatic isolation due to its alignment with the US against China, particularly during trade disputes [1][5][7] - The recent US-China trade negotiations have led to a temporary ceasefire in tariffs, but Canada has been targeted by China for its previous support of US policies [3][5] - China's anti-dumping investigations into Canadian products, such as pea starch and canola seeds, indicate a significant economic backlash against Canada [3][5][8] Group 2 - The Canadian government, under Prime Minister Trudeau, has failed to adjust its foreign policy in light of deteriorating US-Canada relations, leading to increased economic pressure on Canadian farmers [7][8] - Calls from local governments and business leaders in Canada for a shift in policy towards China highlight the growing discontent with the current administration's approach [7][8] - The situation serves as a warning to other nations about the consequences of provoking major powers and the importance of maintaining balanced diplomatic relations [8]

Currency Market Overview - The euro against the dollar has entered a consolidation phase after failing to retest the 1.1600 level [1] - The British pound has returned above the 1.3300 mark against the dollar [1] - The Japanese yen's intraday pullback has stalled [1] - The Australian dollar is hovering around 0.6450 [1] - The New Zealand dollar is consolidating below 0.5900 [1] - The US dollar is holding above 1.3790 against the Canadian dollar [1] Key Economic News - President Trump is set to select a distinguished successor for the US Labor Department [2] - Federal Reserve's Daly indicated that the timing for interest rate cuts is approaching, with more than two cuts likely this year [2] - Former New York Fed President Dudley stated that internal divisions within the Fed have been exaggerated [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts the Fed will begin a series of three 25 basis point rate cuts starting in September; a 50 basis point cut may occur if unemployment rises further [3] Non-US Major Currencies - The EU will suspend trade countermeasures against the US for six months, awaiting Trump's actions on auto tariffs and exemptions [4] - The Swiss government plans to continue talks with the US after August 7, aiming to present more attractive proposals [5] - The Bank of Japan's meeting minutes revealed that many members noted inflation is slightly above expectations but emphasized the need to carefully assess economic conditions due to the downside risks from US tariff policies [5] Other Economic Developments - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority bought HKD 64.29 billion in the market as the HKD exchange rate hit the weak end of the peg [6] - The Bank of Korea expects a significant drop in the inflation rate for August due to temporary factors [7] - Traders suggest the Reserve Bank of India may sell dollars in the local spot market to support the rupee [8] - The State Bank of Vietnam has instructed lending institutions to lower deposit rates to promote a decrease in lending rates [9] - Colombia's central bank raised its 2025 inflation forecast from 4.4% to 4.7% [10] - Argentine President Milei vetoed a pension increase bill passed by Congress [11] Technical Analysis - For EUR/USD, if bulls regain control, it may retest weekly highs of 1.1788 and challenge the psychological level of 1.2000 [12] - For USD/JPY, any subsequent rebound may face resistance around 148.00, with potential upward movement towards 149.00 if broken [12] - For AUD/USD, the pair has shown resilience below the 100-day simple moving average, but caution is advised due to a lack of strong follow-through buying [12] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data to watch includes the US trade balance for June at 20:30, the final reading of the US Services PMI for July at 21:45, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for July at 22:00 [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The weakening US job market has increased expectations of Fed rate cuts, and with global central banks continuing to buy gold, precious metal prices are likely to rise rather than fall. Investors are advised to buy on price dips. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 775.55 yuan/g, with a change of 8.37 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 47,492, and the open interest was 206,958. The inventory was 35,889 (in ten - gram units) [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 111 yuan/kg. The trading volume of the futures active contract was - 78,029, and the open interest was 371,051. The inventory was 1,174,273 (in ten - gram units) [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3,428.60 dollars/ounce, with a change of 12.60 dollars compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 132,941, and the open interest was 334,342. The inventory was 37,762,393.92 (in troy ounces) [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 38.33 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.34 dollars compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 44,731, and the open interest was 109,684. The inventory was 506,602,108.72 (in troy ounces) [1]. News and Information - **Gold**: The EU has suspended trade counter - measures against the US for six months. Switzerland is facing a negotiation "race" to reduce a 39% tariff, and Swiss gold trade has become the focus of Trump's tariff policy. Trump will choose a new Fed governor in the "next few days" and announce a new Bureau of Labor Statistics director in three to four days [1]. - **Macroeconomic Policies**: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate in July. The US economy shows "stagflation" characteristics, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts in September, October, and December. The European Central Bank may cut rates once by the end of 2025. The Bank of England may cut rates 2 - 3 times by the end of 2025, and the Bank of Japan may still raise rates by the end of 2025 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The weakening US job market has heightened expectations of a Fed rate cut, and with global central banks continuing to buy gold, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Investors are advised to buy on price dips. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: On August 4, 2025, the closing price was 775.55 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 47,492 and an open interest of 206,958. The inventory was 35,889 (in ten - gram units). The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 3.28, and the basis was - 2.33 [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: On August 4, 2025, the closing price was 9,039 yuan/kg, with a trading volume of - 78,029 and an open interest of 371,051. The inventory was 1,174,273 (in ten - gram units). The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 17, and the basis was - 40 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: On August 4, 2025, the closing price was 3,428.60 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 132,941 and an open interest of 334,342. The inventory was 37,762,393.92 (in troy ounces). The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 53.50, and the basis was - 69.15 [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: On August 4, 2025, the closing price was 38.33 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 44,731 and an open interest of 109,684. The inventory was 506,602,108.72 (in troy ounces). The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 0.22, and the basis was 0.32 [1] - **Gold and Silver Price Ratios**: Shanghai gold futures to Shanghai silver futures was 83.90; Shanghai gold spot to Shanghai silver spot was 86.32; New York gold futures to New York silver futures was 91.56; London gold spot to London silver spot was 91.72 [1] - **Other Commodities and Financial Indicators**: INE crude oil was 514.30 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude was 68.68 dollars/barrel, NYMEX crude oil was 66.24 dollars/barrel, Shanghai copper futures was 78,330 yuan/ton, LME copper spot was 9,708.50 dollars/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3,204 yuan/ton, and Dalian iron ore was - 7.50 yuan/ton. Major stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, S&P 500, and others also had corresponding closing prices and changes [1] 3.2 News and Information - **Gold - related News**: The EU has suspended trade counter - measures against the US for six months. Switzerland is facing a negotiation "race" to reduce a 39% tariff, and Swiss gold trade has become the focus of Trump's tariff policy. Trump will select a new Fed governor in the "next few days" and announce a new Bureau of Labor Statistics director in three to four days [1] - **Macroeconomic and Central Bank Policies**: The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged in July. Due to possible significant downward revisions or far - below - expected non - farm payrolls in July, the US economy shows "stagflation" characteristics, increasing expectations of rate cuts in September, October, and December. The European Central Bank may cut rates once by the end of 2025, the Bank of England may cut rates 2 - 3 times by the end of 2025, and the Bank of Japan may still have a rate hike expectation by the end of 2025 [1] 3.3 Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to buy on price dips. For London gold, focus on support around 3,150 - 3,250 and resistance around 3,500 - 3,700; for Shanghai gold, support is around 730 - 760 and resistance is around 800 - 850. For London silver, support is around 34 - 38 and resistance is around 37 - 40; for Shanghai silver, support is around 8,500 - 8,700 and resistance is around 9,100 - 9,500 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The four major stock index futures contracts all rose on August 4, 2025. The overall trend of stock index futures is in a volatile pattern, and investors are advised to be cautious about chasing up [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **Closing Price and Fluctuation**: The closing prices of the underlying indexes such as CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all increased on August 4, with increases of 0.39%, 0.55%, 0.78%, and 1.04% respectively. The corresponding futures contracts also rose, with IF rising 0.52%, IH rising 0.54%, IC rising 0.92%, and IM rising 1.31% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The total trading volume of stock index futures declined, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 22,338 lots, 12,314 lots, 11,855 lots, and 23,743 lots respectively. The total open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 7,234 lots, 4,835 lots, 3,294 lots, and 1,172 lots respectively [2] - **Basis**: The basis of each futures contract varies, with some being positive and some negative, reflecting different market expectations [1] 3.2. Top 20 Member Position Changes - For most futures contracts, both long and short positions of the top 20 members showed certain changes. For example, in the IF2508 contract, the long - position increase was - 3303, and the net long - position change was - 6233; the short - position increase was - 2978, and the net short - position change was - 5185 [5] 3.3. Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and the trend intensity of IC and IM is also 1, indicating a neutral trend [6] - **Important Drivers**: The EU will suspend two trade counter - measures against the US for 6 months. The A - share market showed an upward trend on August 4, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.66%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.46%, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.5%. The market volume decreased slightly compared to the previous day [6]

Group 1 - Taxpayers in China are required to declare and pay taxes on overseas income from stock trading, as there are no tax exemptions for such income according to the personal income tax law [1] - Shanghai has issued measures to support enterprises in enhancing basic research, aiming to attract more companies in integrated circuits, biomedicine, and artificial intelligence to join the "Explorer Program" [2] - Significant progress has been made in HIV vaccine research in China, with the completion of the first phase clinical trial of a replicating Tian Tan smallpox vaccine vector HIV vaccine [3] Group 2 - In July 2025, A-share new accounts reached 1.96 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 71% compared to July 2024, and a month-on-month increase of 19.27% [4] - The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.18 million units in July, marking a year-on-year growth of 25% but a month-on-month decline of 4% [6] - Companies such as Fengli Intelligent and Lvtong Technology are planning to raise funds through private placements and acquisitions, indicating active capital market activities [7][8] Group 3 - Guizhou Moutai has repurchased a total of 3.45 million shares, with a total payment of 5.301 billion yuan [10] - The net profit of Shangwei New Materials for the first half of the year is expected to be 29.9 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.91% [10] - The net profit of Haowei Group is projected to increase by 39% to 50% year-on-year for the first half of the year [10] Group 4 - China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation plans to absorb China Shipbuilding, which may lead to the termination of the latter's stock listing [12] - The U.S. President has indicated plans to increase tariffs on India due to its oil trade practices, which could impact international trade dynamics [13] - The Federal Reserve's comments suggest potential interest rate cuts, which could influence market conditions and investment strategies [14]

据报道，欧盟将暂停对美国的贸易反制措施6个月。 ...

Group 1 - The European Union will suspend trade countermeasures against the United States for six months [1]