一方面，鉴于昨日收取倒垂看空形态，以及本周又运行在布林带上轨之外，存在回落需求。另一方面，本周目前公布的数据整个偏空，周四凌晨的美联储 利率决议也预计保持利率不变，将会对金价产生一定利空压力。故此，需留意未来一到两周的调整需求。 张尧浠：金价冲高回落难逆转、支撑触及仍是看涨机会 上交易日周一(1月26日)：国际黄金高开高走，站上5000美元关口，但最后冲高回落倒垂收线，暗示短期存在回调风险，但在跌破5日均线，以及目前多头 强势来看，进一步调整概率较小，后市大概率只是维持高位震荡，并将再度走强攀升。 具体走势上，金价自亚市高开于5005.58美元/盎司，先行走强，于亚盘尾录得日内高点5110.09美元，之后有所受阻，并陷入5060-5100美元区间内持续盘 整，延续到美盘尾连续坠落走低，触及日内低点4990.15美元，最终止跌回升，收于5008.35美元，相对于上周收盘价4982.08美元，日振幅128.01美元，收 涨26.27美元，涨幅0.53%。 影响上，受到周末地缘局势和不确定性再度升级，金价高开高走，并且市场预期1月底前美国政府停摆的概率约为8成，再加上特朗普威胁对加拿大加征关 税，同时也将韩国对等关 ...

ABC Refinery机构市场全球主管尼古拉斯-弗拉佩尔表示，我认为突破金价4800美元进一步印证了这一 观点，即人们不想在5000美元之前卖出 黄金。这是支持黄金的多个传统因素共同作用的结果，包括债 务上升、美元疲软和地缘政治不确定性。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Sichuan Gold (SZ001337) reached its daily limit with a price of 37.65 yuan, reflecting a 9.17% increase and a total market capitalization of 15.695 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The reasons for the stock price surge include resource expansion, qualification assurance, and gold price trends. The company has successfully obtained exploration rights for a gold mine in Xinjiang, adding 59.05 square kilometers of gold resources, significantly enhancing long-term resource reserves [2] - Sichuan Gold has also secured an 11-year mining license and a 5-year extension for exploration rights, ensuring its mining qualifications and laying a solid foundation for future business development [2] - The establishment of a subsidiary in Xinjiang has expanded the company's business area and optimized resource allocation. Additionally, the reduction of pledged shares from 69.58% to 59.55% has alleviated short-term liquidity pressure [2] - The recent upward trend in international gold prices has increased market demand for gold, positively impacting gold stocks and leading to a collective rise in the gold sector [2] - Technical indicators show a strong bullish signal for the stock, with the MACD indicator forming a golden cross recently, indicating strong short-term buying momentum [2] - Significant net buying from large orders on January 19 indicates a notable inflow of main funds, contributing to the stock's limit-up performance [2]

Group 1 - The domestic gold market shows a stabilizing trend, with only minor adjustments in some brands, and overall market volatility has significantly narrowed [1] - The highest gold price today is quoted at 1439 CNY per gram by Laomiao Gold, which increased by 4 CNY, while the lowest price is 1392 CNY per gram by Caibai Gold, resulting in a price difference of 47 CNY per gram [1] - Platinum jewelry prices have decreased by 9 CNY per gram, now reported at 939 CNY per gram [1] Group 2 - The gold recycling prices have slightly decreased, with significant price differences among various brands [2] - The highest gold recycling price is 1055.70 CNY per gram for Caizhi Gold, while the lowest is 997.00 CNY per gram for Chow Tai Fook Gold [2] Group 3 - The international gold price reached a historical high of 4642.72 USD per ounce but later fell to 4626.13 USD per ounce, reflecting a 0.89% increase before declining [4] - Market concerns about a potential military conflict between the US and Iran have eased, leading to a decrease in gold prices [4] - The recent US economic data, including higher-than-expected retail sales and PPI, has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in January, which has limited gold price increases [4] - The outlook for gold prices suggests continued volatility, with domestic gold prices expected to remain high in the short term [4]

CME交易所上调保证金及重要商品指数下调金银权重，或对金价构成潜在利空，但地缘政治风险引发 的避险情绪仍为金价提供支撑。此外，美国最新ADP就业数据表现不佳，增强了市场对美联储降息的预 期，目前市场预期明年将降息两次。本周，投资者需重点关注非农数据的公布，以进一步判断金价走 势。 日期 COMEX黄金库存量(吨) 增持（吨） 2026-01-07 1131.77 0.50 2026-01-06 1132.27 0.00 【要闻回顾】 摘要1月8日，COMEX黄金库存录得1131.77吨，较上一交易日减少0.5吨；COMEX黄金周四（1月8日） 收4486.50美元/盎司，上涨0.52%，comex黄金价格日内最高上探至4488.60美元/盎司，最低触及4415.00 美元/盎司。 1月8日，COMEX黄金库存录得1131.77吨，较上一交易日减少0.5吨；COMEX黄金周四（1月8日）收 4486.50美元/盎司，上涨0.52%，comex黄金价格日内最高上探至4488.60美元/盎司，最低触及4415.00美 元/盎司。 最新comex黄金库存数据： ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in gold prices and the mixed signals from the U.S. labor market and economic indicators, highlighting the impact of geopolitical factors and central bank actions on gold demand and pricing [2][6][7]. Economic Indicators - On January 7, COMEX gold closed at $4467.1 per ounce, down 0.65%, while SHFE gold closed at 1002.20 yuan per gram, down 0.31% [2][6]. - The U.S. ADP employment report for December showed an increase of 41,000 jobs, below the market expectation of 47,000, indicating a slowdown in labor market momentum [2][6]. - The ISM non-manufacturing PMI for December was reported at 54.4, exceeding expectations of 52.3 and the previous value of 52.6, suggesting strong economic demand [2][6]. Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. government has begun global sales of Venezuelan oil, with the Energy Secretary stating that control over these sales will be indefinite [7]. - China's central bank reported a gold reserve of 74.15 million ounces (approximately 2306.323 tons) as of the end of December, an increase of 30,000 ounces (approximately 0.93 tons) from the previous month, marking the 14th consecutive month of gold accumulation [7]. Market Sentiment - The divergence in market signals has led to a cooling in precious metals and non-ferrous sectors, attributed to profit-taking by bullish investors after recent overheating in certain commodities [7]. - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is anticipated to provide further guidance for market direction [7].

央行方面，全球央行购金趋势未改，黄金在国际储备体系中的地位持续提升。央行购金不仅为市场提供 结构性买盘，更从信心层面强化了黄金的货币属性。 另从美元方面来看，2025年第四季度，美元自100关口上方回落，一定程度上减轻了以美元计价的黄金 的压力。同时，白银、铂金等贵金属板块联动走强，市场资金流入明显，反映投资者对贵金属整体配置 意愿增强。 新华财经北京1月6日电 2025年第四季度，国际金价开盘价格3859.03美元，最高4550.52美元，最低 3819.10美元，收盘价格4318.27美元。整个季度波动731.42美元，上涨459.86美元，涨幅11.92%，季度K 线呈现有长上影线的大阳线形态，显示金价的多空博弈剧烈， 2025年全年上涨约64%，创下自1979年以来的最大年度涨幅。整体来看，金价整体强势，但四季度内分 别于10月底和12月底两次创出单日近300美元的大幅调整，市场波动率显著上升，反映市场在历史高位 附近的多空博弈加剧。 综合来看，在4000美元的历史高位上方， 2026年一季度金价的多空博弈将更加剧烈，大幅调整或将成 为常态。 2025年四季度金价走势在美联储降息预期、地缘风险及央行购 ...

Core Insights - Gold is expected to be the best-performing asset class in 2025, driven by four key factors that will also influence its price movements in 2026 [1] Group 1: Key Drivers of Gold Price - The two main macro drivers for gold's success in 2025 are geopolitical tensions and a generally weak US dollar along with moderate interest rate declines [2] - Central banks continue to be strong and stable net buyers of gold, although their purchasing pace has slowed compared to the past two years [2] - A balanced contribution from four main factors—economic expansion, risk and uncertainty, opportunity cost, and momentum—each accounting for approximately 10% of gold's performance [2] Group 2: Future Expectations and Economic Conditions - If the US economy shows a mild decline, it could lead to Federal Reserve rate cuts and further dollar weakness, potentially supporting gold prices by 5% to 15% [3] - In the event of significant economic deterioration, investment demand for gold could surge, with potential prices exceeding $5,000 per ounce [3] - The risk premium associated with gold may decrease if US economic policies yield positive results, potentially leading to a price drop of 5% to 20% [3] Group 3: Central Bank Demand and Recycling Risks - Strong central bank demand is influenced by macro and policy decisions, with continued buying expected to support gold prices [4] - A decline in central bank demand below 600 to 700 tons could exert pressure on future gold prices [4] - In India, gold jewelry is being used as collateral for loans, and an economic downturn could lead to forced liquidations, increasing supply and suppressing gold prices [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that physical gold prices have decreased, with the Shouda Sheng gold price at 1363 CNY per gram on December 30, 2025, down by 42 CNY from the previous day [1][2][3] - Platinum prices also fell, with a current price of 871 CNY per gram, down by 79 CNY from December 29, 2025 [1][2][3] Group 2 - HSBC has lowered its expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts next year, which may negatively impact gold prices in the short term due to severe overbought technical indicators [2][4] - The US dollar index remains in a low-level fluctuation, while geopolitical uncertainties are increasing risk aversion, which supports bullish sentiment for gold prices [2][4] - After a short-term adjustment, gold prices are expected to strengthen again, pending a correction in technical indicators [2][4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant drop in gold prices is attributed to profit-taking after a bullish trend, but the medium to long-term outlook remains bullish due to ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchasing trends [1][5][6]. Price Movements - On December 29, gold opened at $4537.12 per ounce, peaked at $4548.58, and then fell to a low of $4303.73, closing at $4331.93, marking a daily decline of $202.19 or 4.46% [3][5]. - The price volatility for the day was $244.85, indicating significant market fluctuations [3]. Market Influences - Upcoming economic indicators, such as the FHFA House Price Index and Chicago PMI, are expected to exert downward pressure on gold prices [5]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes are anticipated to have limited positive impact on gold prices, with the market likely to remain in a consolidation phase [5]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term bullish perspective on gold remains unchanged due to global economic uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and inflation hedging demands [5][6]. - The potential for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is seen as a key driver for gold price increases, with a target of $5000 per ounce by 2026 being considered achievable [6][8]. Technical Analysis - Monthly and weekly charts indicate a potential for gold to test support levels around $4000-$3900, with a bullish outlook if it breaks above previous resistance levels [8][10]. - Daily charts show that gold is currently supported by key moving averages, suggesting opportunities for bullish positions [12]. Trading Strategy - Suggested trading levels include support at $4315 or $4260 and resistance at $4380 or $4440 for gold, with similar levels provided for silver [13].