10月14日，日本股市在连休后迎来一波剧烈抛售。截至收盘，日经225指数收跌2.58%，报46847.32点。 日本政坛地震正在迅速侵蚀市场此前热烈鼓吹的"高市交易"。 政治地震 上周五(10日)，自民党的执政联盟伙伴公明党突然宣布退出已持续26年的执政联盟，双方因政治献金监 管改革分歧而决裂。 据《环球时报》报道，立宪民主党党首野田佳彦正协调与国民民主党党首玉木雄一郎、日本维新会共同 代表藤田文武举行会谈，希望在首相指名选举中，推出在野党的统一候选人。眼下，玉木雄一郎已成为 热门人选。 自民党在更具权力的众议院拥有196个席位，位居第一大党团。在与自民党"分手"后，拥有24席的公明 党已公开表态，不会在首相选举中支持高市早苗。如果在野的立宪民主党(148席)、国民民主党(27席)和 日本维新会(35席)统一推出候选人，三党就能凑到210席，高出自民党现有席位数量。 这意味着，只要自民党以外的其他政党不支持高市早苗，这一席位数足以确保新候选人的首相职位。 玉木雄一郎上周在社交媒体上发文表示，"我已下定决心成为首相。" 若其成功当选，这将是自2009年以来自民党首次被赶下执政地位。 不过，有分析指出，尽管立宪民 ...

2025.10. 13 本文字数：2393，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 潘寅茹 "高市交易"仅仅闪耀一周不到便迎来挑战。 国民民主党，此前被舆论认为最有可能加入执政联盟，并且已与高市进行过相关探讨。但是，国民民 主党党首玉木雄一郎在"自公联盟"解散后的第一时间发文称，"我已下定决心参选首相""立宪民主党 已提名我为首相候选人，我已做好担任首相的准备"。这番表态被解读为显示出他不打算给高市任 何"补位"的反应时间。 上海市日本学会会长、上海对外经贸大学日本经济研究中心主任陈子雷教授告诉第一财经记者，现在 主动权掌握在国民民主党手中，"进可攻退可守。如果退，可以和立宪民主党等在野党一起联手；如 果进，可以与自民党联合执政，但是在自民党未能摆脱'黑金'政治的背景下，国民民主党即便成为执 政党可能也不会得到民意支持，甚至党内还可能出现分裂。" 至于握有35票的维新会，公明党与其在之前的大阪选区选举中不欢而散。对于维新会倡导的把大阪 提升为"第二个首都"的构想，其余在野党兴趣寥寥。 在日本前经济安保大臣高市早苗成为自民党新任总裁后，日股开启飙升模式。过去一周，日股屡刷新 历史新高，接连站上47000点和48 ...

Core Viewpoint - Political uncertainty has become a focal point for the market, particularly following the dissolution of the ruling coalition in Japan, which has led to volatility in the stock market and currency exchange rates [1][8]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the rise of the Japanese stock market, which reached historical highs above 47,000 and 48,000 points with a peak increase of 5%, the situation changed dramatically after the announcement of the dissolution of the ruling coalition [2][3]. - The Nikkei index futures experienced a significant drop of 5% on the day of the coalition's dissolution, indicating a sharp market reaction to the political developments [7]. Group 2: Political Landscape - The formal dissolution of the "Self-Public Coalition" has created uncertainty regarding the prospects of Sanna Takachi becoming Japan's first female Prime Minister, as the election process involves a two-round voting system in the National Diet [3][5]. - The current seat distribution in the House of Representatives shows the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) holding 196 seats, while the now-independent Komeito Party has 24 seats, and the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, has 148 seats [5]. Group 3: Implications for Economic Policy - Analysts suggest that if Takachi fails to secure the Prime Minister position, it could delay the submission of the supplementary budget to the National Diet, significantly impacting economic stimulus policies planned for the fourth quarter [8]. - The market's perception of Takachi's economic policies has shifted, with concerns about extreme fiscal expansion being deemed overstated, as her stance has moved towards a more moderate and conservative approach [7].

Core Viewpoint - The sudden dissolution of the ruling coalition in Japan, with the Komeito party withdrawing from the alliance led by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), poses significant uncertainty for the political landscape and the potential appointment of Sanna Takai as Japan's first female Prime Minister [1][2]. Political Landscape - The Komeito party's exit from the coalition may disrupt the process of appointing Sanna Takai as Prime Minister, especially as the National Diet is set to hold a vote for the next Prime Minister on October 15 [1]. - The LDP and Komeito together hold 215 seats in the House of Representatives, which is below the majority threshold of 233 seats. If Komeito withdraws, the LDP will have 191 seats but will still remain the largest party [1]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement of Komeito's withdrawal, the Nikkei index futures dropped over 1200 points, reflecting a decline of more than 2% [2]. - The initial reaction in the foreign exchange market saw the yen strengthen to 152.36 before retreating, stabilizing around 152.8 later in the day [4]. Economic Implications - Analysts suggest that investors are becoming cautious about the risks of a short-term political vacuum and delays in policy execution. The previous expectations of economic stimulus from Takai's policies may lead to a reversal of the "sell yen, buy stocks" trend that emerged after her election victory [6]. - If the opposition parties present a unified candidate instead of Takai, the gains in the USD/JPY exchange rate driven by the "Takai trade" could be fully reversed. However, the market has not yet fully priced in the risk of Takai not becoming Prime Minister [6]. Stock Market Outlook - The uncertainty introduced by Komeito's exit is expected to exert pressure on the Japanese stock market. The LDP may be forced to make concessions, potentially weakening Takai's economic policies [7]. - The Nikkei index could retreat to around 40,000 points, as the market adjusts to the new political landscape and the expectations surrounding Takai's policies diminish [7].

Core Viewpoint - The sudden breakup of the ruling coalition in Japan, with the Komeito party withdrawing from the alliance led by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), poses significant uncertainty for the political landscape and the potential ascension of Sanae Takaichi as Japan's first female Prime Minister [2][5]. Political Developments - The Komeito party's representative, Tetsuo Saito, stated that the LDP failed to provide adequate responses regarding political funding issues [3]. - If the Komeito party's withdrawal is confirmed, it would end a political alliance that has lasted since 1999, just days before the Prime Minister nomination vote scheduled for October 15 [5]. - Takaichi, who won the LDP leadership election on October 4, is seen as a proponent of "Abenomics" and advocates for loose monetary policy, fiscal spending, and structural reforms [5]. Market Reactions - Following the news, the Nikkei index futures dropped over 1200 points, a decline exceeding 2% [6]. - The initial reaction in the foreign exchange market saw the yen rise to 152.36 before retreating, stabilizing around 152.8 later [6]. Investor Sentiment - Analysts indicate that investors are becoming cautious about the risks of a short-term political vacuum and delays in policy execution [8]. - The previous expectations of economic boosts from Takaichi's policies may lead to a reversal of the "buy stocks, sell yen" strategy that emerged after her election victory [8]. - If the opposition parties present a unified candidate instead of Takaichi, the gains in the USD/JPY exchange rate driven by her election could be fully reversed [8]. Future Outlook - The uncertainty introduced by the Komeito's exit may pressure the Japanese stock market, with the Nikkei index potentially retreating to around 40,000 points [9]. - Even if the LDP forms alliances with other parties, achieving a majority in both houses remains challenging, significantly reducing the likelihood of Takaichi's economic policies being implemented [9]. - The active trading strategy surrounding Takaichi's election is expected to unwind as market participants reassess the political landscape [9].

Group 1 - The Komeito party, led by Tetsuo Saito, has expressed intentions to break away from the ruling coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), signaling a significant political shift in Japan [1][2] - The failure of Saito and LDP's new president, Sanae Takaichi, to reach an agreement on party funding rules has led to Komeito's decision not to support Takaichi in the upcoming prime minister election [1] - Despite losing Komeito's support, Takaichi is still likely to become the next prime minister due to the LDP's majority in both houses of the Japanese parliament, although this coalition's dissolution introduces considerable uncertainty into Japan's political and legislative agenda [1][2] Group 2 - The breakdown of the LDP-Komeito coalition has reversed the so-called "Takaichi trade," with the Nikkei 225 futures index falling by 1.42% and the yen strengthening, leading to a 0.25% drop in the USD/JPY exchange rate to 152.69 [2] - Analysts suggest that the previous expectations of monetary easing under Takaichi's leadership may be tempered due to the loss of Komeito's support, potentially leading to a rebound in the yen to around 151.60 or 151 [4] - The new political uncertainty is expected to pressure the Japanese stock market, with potential policy concessions from the LDP that could weaken Takaichi's economic policy influence [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Komeito party's decision to exit the ruling coalition led by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) marks a historic shift in Japanese politics, potentially complicating the path for newly elected LDP president Sanae Takaichi to become the next Prime Minister [1][3]. Group 1: Political Implications - Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito informed Takaichi of the party's decision to end a 26-year partnership, stating that Komeito will not support Takaichi's bid for Prime Minister in the upcoming parliamentary vote [3]. - The dissolution of the coalition will significantly impact Takaichi's chances of securing the Prime Minister position, as Komeito holds 45 seats in the National Diet, while the LDP has 296 out of 713 total seats [4]. - The loss of Komeito as an ally may lead to substantial political uncertainty for Takaichi, despite the possibility of winning the parliamentary vote due to the ongoing fragmentation of opposition parties [5]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of Komeito's exit, the USD/JPY exchange rate experienced a short-term drop of nearly 40 points, although it has since recovered [1]. - Takaichi's election as LDP president has reduced market expectations for a near-term interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, contributing to a rise in the stock market and a weakening of the yen [5]. - The exit of Komeito could disrupt the so-called "Takaichi trade," which has been driven by investor optimism regarding fiscal stimulus [5].

Core Viewpoint - The election of Sanae Takaichi as the new president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party is expected to lead to significant fiscal stimulus and loose monetary policy, resulting in a market phenomenon referred to as "Takaichi trading" [1][4]. Economic Policy Implications - Takaichi is seen as a proponent of "Abenomics," advocating for loose monetary policy, active fiscal spending, and structural reforms [5]. - The USD/JPY exchange rate has crossed the psychologically significant level of 150, which may prompt the Japanese government to intervene in the foreign exchange market due to rising import costs [5][6]. Market Reactions - Following Takaichi's victory, the Nikkei 225 index reached a historical high, and the USD/JPY exchange rate rose above 150 [1][4]. - The yen has depreciated since Takaichi's election, reducing its year-to-date appreciation to 2.77% [4]. Potential U.S. Relations Impact - Concerns arise that the yen's depreciation could reignite criticism from former President Trump regarding Japan's trade practices, as he has previously accused Japan of manipulating its currency [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that Takaichi may act cautiously in economic policy to maintain good relations with the U.S. [6]. Inflation Concerns - Input inflation due to a weaker yen could become a political issue for the ruling party, as it may increase the cost of living for Japanese households [6][7]. - The current inflation rate in Japan has exceeded the Bank of Japan's target of 2% for three consecutive years, with the latest figure reaching 2.7% in August [7]. Future Monetary Policy Expectations - Analysts predict that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in December and again in mid-2026, despite Takaichi's opposition to rate hikes [7]. - A stronger yen may be necessary to curb inflation and improve public purchasing power, which is a significant concern for the ruling party [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Nikkei average index reached a historic high of 48,580.44 points on October 9, driven primarily by SoftBank Group's acquisition of a Swiss large-scale electric company's robotics business, marking its entry into the AI robotics development competition [2][4]. Group 1 - On October 9, the Nikkei average index rose by 845.45 points, or 1.77%, compared to the previous trading day, setting a new historical record [2]. - The market had previously shown signs of a pullback on October 8, with concerns about a potential slowdown in the upward momentum, but it demonstrated strong resilience [4]. - The 200-day moving average divergence exceeded the overheating threshold of 20%, reaching 21%, indicating a sustained overheat state in the market [4]. Group 2 - The appointment of high-profile political figures, such as the new president of the Liberal Democratic Party, has fueled expectations for proactive fiscal policies and monetary easing, contributing to the so-called "high market trading" that has driven stock price increases [4]. - The interplay between "high market trading" and the "AI boom" has been identified as the dual driving forces behind stock price increases, suggesting that even in an overheated market, stock price growth is likely to continue [5].

Core Viewpoint - The economic policy stance of Japan's new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, has sparked market expectations for a "new Abenomics," leading to the yen's exchange rate falling below the 153 mark, reigniting disputes over currency policy between the US and Japan [1][3]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Rate Movements - The USD/JPY exchange rate rose to 153, marking a 0.2% increase, the first time since February that it has reached this level, which is considered politically and psychologically sensitive [1]. - The yen's depreciation has been linked to concerns over rising import costs, which could exacerbate household living cost pressures [1][4]. - The yen had previously appreciated about 6% to 147.44 before Takaichi's election, but has since weakened to around 152, narrowing its year-to-date gain to 2.77% [4]. Group 2: Historical Context and Political Implications - The current yen depreciation has revived discussions reminiscent of former President Trump's accusations of Japan "manipulating" its currency for unfair trade advantages [3][5]. - Analysts suggest that Takaichi may adopt a cautious approach to economic policy to avoid straining relations with the US, despite the volatility in the market [3][5]. - Concerns about import inflation are expected to prevent Takaichi from implementing policies that would further weaken the yen, indicating a need for a more realistic policy stance [4][7]. Group 3: Inflation and Economic Policy Challenges - Japan's inflation rate has exceeded the Bank of Japan's 2% target for over three years, with an overall inflation rate of 2.7% reported in August [7]. - Experts believe that interest rate hikes will be necessary to curb inflation, with market pressures likely forcing Takaichi to accept potential rate increases by the Bank of Japan in the near future [7]. - The loss of purchasing power among the public is identified as a primary reason for the ruling party's unpopularity, highlighting the political stakes involved in managing inflation and currency value [7].