行业研究 非银行金融 2025 年 05 月 16 日 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 险资买入银行，社保增持地产 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 联系人：陈海椰 邮箱：chenhaiye@hcyjs.com 事项： 我们从上市公司前十大股东名单中筛选出险资、社保基金、基本养老金、企业年金 四类持股主体，分析四类长钱季度间风格变化。其中，险资剔除中国人寿集团持有国寿 股份，中国平安持有平安集团及员工长期计划。 根据业绩期披露时间节点，我们将形成每年三次的长钱重仓风格分析报告（如 24&25Q1，25Q2，25Q3），历史系统性梳理见此前外发报告《从重仓看中长期资金入市》。 评论： 一、险资重仓：增持交运、食饮，减持公用事业、石油石化 险资 24 年规模快速增长，股票与基金合计占比 12.7%。截至 2024 年底，保险行业资金 运用余额达到 33.26 万亿，同比增长 15%（披露口径）。2024 年，险资实现年化财务投资 收益率 3.43%，年化综合投 ...

农业银行、上海银行、交通银行再创历史新高，中国太保、中国人保、中国平安、华泰证券、厦门银 行、宁波银行等跟涨。 午后，A股三大指数全线拉升。 沪指拉升，重回3400点，大金融、港口航运、物流、化工等方向涨幅居前，沪深京三市上涨个股近2000 只。 富时中国A50指数期货涨幅扩大至2%。 大金融集体异动拉升。 券商股午后拉升，红塔证券涨停，华泰证券、广发证券跟涨。 保险股爆发，中国人保涨停，中国太保涨逾8%。 据中金公司研究，近期2024年年报披露结束，2024年A股上市公司分红意愿进一步提升，在上市企业盈 利增速同比有所下降的情况下，分红总额同比增长5%左右，成为高股息投资的重要支撑。 中金公司表示，A股分红水平提升成为高股息投资的重要基础。一方面，A股企业资本开支增长有所放 缓，且自由现金流水平维持较好的状态，总量层面具备进一步提升分红水平的能力。另一方面，2023年 以来证监会加强鼓励分红导向，2024年4月新"国九条"发布，分红监管进一步强化，A股分红比例上升 趋势有望延续。 东方证券认为，宽货币政策超预期落地，无风险利率下行环境下，确定性的股息收入重要性提升。在公 募基金改革后，由于主动公募当前显著欠 ...

在贸易紧张局势缓和后，压制市场的重要因素有所缓解，市场的重心不断抬升，受益于贸易局势缓和相 关题材接连走高。 5月14日的A股市场整体保持震荡走势，临近午间收盘，主要股指快速拉升。截至午间收盘，沪指涨 0.19%，深成指跌0.26%，创业板指跌0.22%。 盘面上，航运港口、化纤行业等表现相对活跃，小金属、物流、化学原料、能源金属等板块也有所走 高，而光伏、贵金属等板块出现回调，医药商业、纺织服装、公用事业等板块跌超1%。 港股市场方面，恒生指数盘中一度冲高上涨近1.5%，但随后涨幅有所回落；恒生科技指数盘中上涨超 2%，随后也出现震荡回落走势。港股蓝筹股中，中国生物制药、京东健康等涨幅居前，理想汽车、百 度集团、友邦保险等多股实现上涨。 航运港口接连走高 在中美贸易紧张局势缓和的情况下，A股航运港口近期接连走高。 据中金公司（601995）研究，近期2024年年报披露结束，2024年A股上市公司提升分红意愿进一步提 升，在上市企业盈利增速同比有所下降的情况下，分红总额同比增长5%左右，成为高股息投资的重要 支撑。 中金公司表示，A股分红水平提升成为高股息投资的重要基础。一方面，A股企业资本开支增长有所放 缓 ...

在贸易紧张局势缓和后，压制市场的重要因素有所缓解，市场的重心不断抬升，受益于贸易局势缓和相关题材接连走高。 5月14日的A股市场整体保持震荡走势，临近午间收盘，主要股指快速拉升。截至午间收盘，沪指涨0.19%，深成指跌0.26%，创业板指跌0.22%。 盘面上，航运港口、化纤行业等表现相对活跃，小金属、物流、化学原料、能源金属等板块也有所走高，而光伏、贵金属等板块出现回调，医药商业、纺织服装、 公用事业等板块跌超1%。 | 序 | 代码 | 名标 | | *● | 咸新 | 张唱歌手 | 米天 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0 | BK0450 | 航运港口 | | | 10294.09 | 4.05 | 401.04 | | 1 | 833171 | 国 航 元 年 | R | 1 | 12.01 | 26.42 | 2.51 | | 2 | 601866 | 中订海友 | R | 0 | 2.61 | 10.13 | 0.24 | | 3 | 600798 | 宁波海运 | R | $ | 3.70 | 10.12 | 0.34 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the performance and growth of the State-Owned Enterprise Dividend Index and its related ETF, indicating a positive trend in the market for high-dividend stocks [1][2] - The State-Owned Enterprise Dividend ETF has seen significant growth in both scale and shares over the past three months, with an increase of 18.87 million yuan in scale and 16.2 million shares, ranking it in the top half among comparable funds [1][2] - The State-Owned Enterprise Dividend Index consists of 100 listed companies selected for their high cash dividend yields and stable dividends, reflecting the overall performance of high-dividend securities among state-owned enterprises [2] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the State-Owned Enterprise Dividend Index account for 15.18% of the index, with notable stocks including China Merchants Industry Holdings and Hebei Central Energy [2] - Recent government policies aimed at stabilizing market expectations include interest rate cuts and the establishment of AIC companies by three major banks, which may enhance their service capabilities but could also pressure capital and asset quality [1][2] - The banking sector is viewed positively, with a focus on low-valuation, high-dividend bank stocks as a key investment theme amid ongoing market uncertainties [2]

中金研究 红利风格作为过去3年A股和港股市场持续性较好的主线之一，从去年"924"之后至今年3月，相对收益一度下降。4月初随着美国关税政策带来外部不确 定性，A股整体企业盈利景气行业预期受到影响，投资者对业绩稳定性和确定性的要求上升，红利风格关注度阶段回升。近期2024年年报披露结束， 2024年A股上市公司提升分红意愿进一步提升，在上市企业盈利增速同比有所下降的情况下，分红总额同比增长5%左右，成为高股息投资的重要支 撑。本报告结合2024年年报，重点梳理当前A股市场分红特征的变化情况，并对相关红利选股模型进行进一步优化与更新。 点击小程序查看报告原文 2024年A股上市公司的分红特征 A股上市公司现金分红总额创历史新高，约九成盈利企业进行现金分红。 2024年4月"新国九条"出台以来，监管层持续强化对现金分红的鼓励和支持力 度，叠加A股上市公司自由现金流改善，A股整体现金分红水平进一步提高。具体来看：1）2024年A股上市公司累计现金分红金额2.3万亿元，同比增速 5%；现金分红公司数量占比69.1%，剔除亏损上市公司后2024年分红公司数量占比89.3%。2）A股整体分红比例（现金分红/净利润）提升2. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the construction and engineering sector [13] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the high dividend investment opportunities in the construction sector, particularly focusing on state-owned enterprises, local state-owned enterprises, international engineering firms, and quality private enterprises [2][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Central State-Owned Enterprises - The report highlights China State Construction as a top pick due to its complete qualifications and stable operations, benefiting from steady growth. The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio from around 20% to over 24%, with a projected new contract amount of 1,414.9 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.1% [8][9] - Other notable mentions include China Communications Construction and China Railway Construction, with dividend yields of over 5% and 6% respectively [8] Local State-Owned Enterprises - Sichuan Road and Bridge is identified as a key player, with a projected dividend yield of around 6% for 2025. The company plans to repurchase shares worth 100-200 million yuan, reflecting confidence in future growth [8][9] - Other local state-owned enterprises with attractive valuations and high dividend yields include Anhui Construction and Tunnel Engineering [8] International Engineering - The report stresses the investment opportunities presented by the "Belt and Road" initiative, recommending companies like China Steel International and China National Materials, which have high overseas order growth and dividend yields around 5% [8][10] Quality Private Enterprises - Jianghe Group is highlighted for its robust fundamentals and high dividend payout ratio, with a projected payout exceeding 95% for 2024. The company has expanded its overseas business significantly, with new orders growing by 57% year-on-year [8][11]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with military stocks surging, while real estate and large financial sectors also showed strength, indicating a positive sentiment in specific sectors driven by regulatory support for insurance investments [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The three major A-share indices opened high but closed lower with narrow fluctuations [1] - Military stocks saw a significant rally, while major banks like China Bank and Agricultural Bank rose over 1% [1] Group 2: Regulatory Developments - The head of the Financial Regulatory Bureau announced plans to expand the long-term investment pilot for insurance funds, with an additional 60 billion yuan to be approved soon [1] - Adjustments to solvency regulation rules will lower the risk factor for stock investments by 10%, encouraging insurance companies to increase market participation [1] - A long-term assessment mechanism will be promoted to enhance institutional engagement and support "long money long investment" strategies [1] Group 3: Investment Outlook - Guotai Junan Securities estimates that insurance funds will inject an additional 600-800 billion yuan into the market over the next three years, with high-dividend stocks accounting for 300-400 billion yuan of this amount [1] - The low interest rate environment and asset scarcity make high-dividend stocks a necessary choice for insurance companies, leading to an expected annual increase of 300-400 billion yuan in high-dividend allocations [1] Group 4: Investment Products - The Redundant ETF National Enterprise (530880) closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange National Enterprise Dividend Index, which includes 30 state-owned enterprises with high cash dividend yields and stable dividends [1] - Investors without stock accounts can access investment opportunities through the Redundant ETF National Enterprise's linked funds [1]

事件 5 月 7 日，金融监管总局局长李云泽在参加国新办新闻发布会时表示，一是进一步扩大保险资金长期投资试点范围， 近期拟再批复 600 亿元，为市场注入更多增量资金；二是调整偿付能力监管规则，将股票投资的风险因子进一步调降 10%，鼓励保险公司加大入市力度；三是推动完善长周期考核机制，调动机构积极性，促进实现"长钱长投"。 核心内容 长期股票投资试点：截至当前金融监管总局批复的保险资金长期投资改革试点已达 1620 亿元，共计 8 家头部险企参 与，预计主要投向为二级市场优质的高股息标的。 股票投资风险因子：偿付能力充足率水平决定保险公司投资权益的上限，偿付能力对于权益配置的约束在于权益投资 *风险因子影响最低资本要求，以投资沪深 300 的基础因子从 0.3 优化至 0.27、2025Q1 偿付能力、2024 年股票数据进 行简单测算，对平安寿、太保寿、国寿、新华核心偿付能力充足率提振幅度分别为 4.4%/6.3%/4.4%/7.9%，综合偿付 能力充足率提振分别为 6.1%/9.9%/6.0%/11.0%，因此降低股票投资风险因子将缓释股票持仓高的险企的偿付能力压力， 打开险资入市空间，加快险资入市进程 ...

Group 1 - The core view indicates that Asian currencies are strengthening against the US dollar, suggesting a shift away from the "American exceptionalism" narrative, with non-US assets showing no significant systemic risks in the short term [1][2][3] - The report recommends a "barbell" strategy ahead of the June FOMC meeting, advocating for long-duration bonds and high-dividend stocks while also exploring opportunities in technology sectors such as semiconductors, innovative pharmaceuticals, and battery storage [1][6][12] - The report highlights that the A-share market is expected to see a slight rebound, driven by strong performance in small-cap technology stocks and consumer sectors, while maintaining a focus on high-dividend and cash flow stocks [44][52][53] Group 2 - The report notes that the US stock market is currently benefiting from retail fund inflows and strong earnings from technology stocks, with a recommendation to consider shorting the dollar before the June FOMC meeting [2][40][41] - In the Japanese market, the ongoing negotiations regarding US-Japan tariffs are a key focus, with expectations that Japan may sell US bonds to strengthen its negotiating position [41][44] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balanced portfolio in the Hong Kong market, with a focus on sectors such as internet, consumer, and healthcare, while noting a slowdown in southbound capital inflows [46][50][51] Group 3 - The report suggests that the current market environment favors high-dividend and low-volatility stocks, particularly in sectors like banking, utilities, and infrastructure [7][53] - Small-cap stocks are highlighted as having a stronger performance outlook due to declining short-term interest rates, with a cautionary note on potential trading congestion risks in the small-cap index [54][55] - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including banking, electric utilities, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, semiconductor materials, and military low-altitude economy [55][56] Group 4 - The report indicates that gold is currently in a short-term oversold condition but maintains a long-term upward trend as a hedge against global monetary expansion [56][57] - The ETF strategy shows a strong performance with a 31.19% absolute return since the beginning of 2024, outperforming the benchmark indices [58][59] - The report reviews the performance of various strategies, noting that high-dividend stocks significantly outperformed the market, while technology sectors like robotics and semiconductors also showed strong gains [60][61]