独立行情中的不确定性 2025 年 03 月 11 日 邮箱：mouyiling@mszq.com 邮箱：meikai@mszq.com 邮箱：fangzhiyong@mszq.com 研究助理：季宏坤 执业证号：S0100124070013 邮箱：jihongkun@mszq.com A 股策略点评 20250311 [Table_Author] 分析师：牟一凌 分析师：梅锴 分析师：方智勇 执业证号：S0100521120002 执业证号：S0100522070001 执业证号：S0100522040003 ➢ 不一样的美股下跌。昨日(20250310)美股整体大幅调整，其中，纳指跌幅创 下 2022 年 10 月以来的新高。实际上，自 2025 年 2 月 20 日以来，美股整体已 经进入下跌趋势，随之而来的是 VIX 指数的持续攀升(图 1)与纳指加速器指标的 持续回落(图 2)。截至 2025 年 3 月 10 日，美股 VIX 指数已经逐步接近 2024 年 8 月的高点，而纳指加速器指标则远低于负两倍标准差水平。从历史上看，每当 纳指加速器指标回落至负一倍标准差以下时，纳指往往会迎来一轮反弹，但 ...

Core Viewpoint - The AI large model sector is experiencing a new wave of price reductions, driven by competition and advancements in algorithms and computing cost control [4][5]. Group 1: Price Reductions and Promotions - DeepSeek has launched a time-limited discount for its API calls, reducing DeepSeek-V3 to 50% of its original price and DeepSeek-R1 to 25% [2]. - Major companies like ByteDance, Alibaba Cloud, Tencent, and iFlytek have announced significant price cuts for their models, with ByteDance's Doubao visual understanding model dropping to 0.003 yuan per thousand tokens, an 85% reduction from the industry average [4]. - Free service strategies are being adopted by several firms, with Baidu's Wenxin Yiyan and OpenAI's ChatGPT offering free access starting April 1 [4]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - NVIDIA has open-sourced a new optimization scheme based on the Blackwell architecture, achieving a 20-fold reduction in single token costs and a 25-fold performance increase compared to the previous H100 model [2][3]. - The new FP4 quantization model reaches 99.8% performance of FP8 models in the MMLU general intelligence benchmark, showcasing significant advancements in model efficiency [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Investments - The A-share market has seen a surge in large model concept stocks, with 69 companies experiencing an increase, and a net inflow of 90.02 billion yuan in leveraged funds [5]. - Notable stock increases include Capital Online rising by 13.71% and several others by over 5% [5]. - China Unicom has optimized its "adaptive slow thinking" model for DeepSeek series, saving approximately 30% in inference computation [5]. Group 4: Industry Dynamics - The open-sourcing of DeepSeek's cost-reduction methodology is expected to lower training and inference costs across the industry, stimulating rapid expansion of AI applications [5]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with companies focusing on algorithm optimization and iteration as key strategies alongside price reductions [4].