机构：交银国际 研究员：陈庆/李柳晓 汽车毛利率超预期。2Q25 小鹏汽车营收 182.7 亿元 （人民币，下同），环比升15.6%，略低于市场和 我们预期。汽车销量 10.3 万辆，环比增 9.8%。受车型结构影响，G6/G9/X9 占比环比上升，而低价M03 占比下降影响，单价ASP16.4 万元，环比升1.1 万元，基本符合预期。在单价和车型结构改变、及规模 效应下，汽车毛利率14.3%，环比大幅改善3.9 个百分点，超市场和我们预期。研发/销售费用环比增 11.4%，均低于收入增长，占收比环比略降。2 季度公司净亏损4.8 亿元/non-GAAP 净亏损 3.8 亿元，亏 损按季进一步收窄。 公司预计3Q25 营收为 196 亿-210 亿元，按中位数环比增长~11.9%。预计交付量为 11.3 万至 11.8 万 辆，按中位数环比增长~11.1%。收入和交付指引隐含的单价预期~17 万元，环比提升 0.6 万元，反映3 季度车型结构或进一步改善，毛利率环比亦可能进一步改善。同时小鹏维持4 季度盈利的指引。 单价、毛利率有望持续边际向上，看好后续一车双能平台车型对利润的正面贡献。全新一代 P7 已亮相 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent challenges faced by Nvidia in the Chinese market following the U.S. lifting the ban on its H20 AI chip sales to China, highlighting concerns over potential security risks associated with backdoor systems in chips [1][12]. Group 1: Nvidia and H20 Chip - Nvidia's H20 chip, designed for the Chinese market, is now facing scrutiny from China's National Cyberspace Administration due to concerns about security vulnerabilities and potential backdoors [1][12]. - The H20 chip's performance is estimated to be about 70% of Nvidia's H100 chip, making it the most powerful AI chip Nvidia is allowed to sell in China [12]. - Despite receiving 300,000 orders, the scrutiny from the Chinese government poses significant challenges for Nvidia's sales strategy in the region [12][14]. Group 2: Backdoor Systems and Security Risks - Backdoor systems in chips can allow unauthorized access, posing severe security threats, especially in critical applications like military and finance [2][4]. - The definition of "backdoor" is contentious, with some features being misidentified as malicious due to their potential misuse [4][5]. - Experts emphasize that distinguishing between design flaws and intentional backdoors requires precise technical analysis [5][6]. Group 3: Geopolitical Context - The scrutiny of Nvidia's H20 chip reflects broader geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China, particularly in the tech sector [12][15]. - China's emphasis on technological self-sufficiency and reducing reliance on Western technology is becoming increasingly pronounced [12][15]. - The incident illustrates the disconnect between technological trust and geopolitical trust, amplifying concerns over security in international tech collaborations [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the competitive landscape of the autonomous driving industry, focusing on NVIDIA's challenges in maintaining its market position against emerging Chinese companies and the shift towards self-developed chips by major automakers [5][15][50]. Group 1: NVIDIA's Market Position - NVIDIA's market capitalization has reached $4 trillion, making it the world's most valuable company, but it faces increasing competition from Chinese automakers who are trying to reduce reliance on NVIDIA's technology [5][15]. - General Motors' executives have expressed concerns about NVIDIA's autonomous driving solutions, indicating potential issues in their collaboration [7][8]. - Other automakers, such as Mercedes-Benz, have also reported that NVIDIA's autonomous driving performance is lagging behind that of Chinese startups like Momenta [10][11]. Group 2: Challenges in Chip Delivery - NVIDIA's latest Thor chip has faced multiple delays, impacting key clients like Li Auto, which has resulted in significant sales losses estimated at around 6 billion yuan due to postponed vehicle launches [18][19]. - The delays in chip delivery have prompted companies like Xiaopeng to pivot towards self-developed chips, as they can no longer rely on NVIDIA's timelines [20][24]. - The challenges faced by NVIDIA in delivering the Thor chip are attributed to design flaws and the complexity of automotive-grade chip production, which differs from consumer electronics [34][42][46]. Group 3: Shift Towards Self-Developed Chips - Major Chinese automakers are increasingly investing in self-developed chips to reduce costs and enhance compatibility with their AI technologies, with companies like NIO and Xiaopeng already making significant progress [25][35][37]. - The self-development of chips is seen as a strategic necessity for automakers to maintain competitiveness in the rapidly evolving autonomous driving market [38][39]. - The article highlights that the development of self-developed chips is a long-term commitment, with significant investments and risks involved, but it is becoming essential due to supply chain uncertainties [26][27][30]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The competition in the autonomous driving software space is intensifying, with Chinese companies like Momenta and Qingtou Zhihang rapidly advancing their technologies, often outpacing NVIDIA's offerings [51][53]. - NVIDIA's corporate culture and operational structure may hinder its ability to adapt quickly to the demands of the automotive industry, contrasting with the agile approaches of Chinese startups [52][54]. - The article suggests that the future of autonomous driving will likely see a shift towards more localized solutions, with Chinese companies capturing a larger share of the market as they innovate faster and align more closely with automotive needs [55].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by NVIDIA in the automotive sector, particularly in the context of its partnerships with major car manufacturers and the increasing competition from Chinese companies developing their own chips and software solutions [3][5][18]. Group 1: NVIDIA's Automotive Business Challenges - NVIDIA's automotive business, while significant, accounts for less than 2% of its total revenue of $130.5 billion, indicating that it is a relatively small segment for the company [11][58]. - The collaboration between NVIDIA and General Motors has faced internal criticism, with GM executives describing NVIDIA's autonomous driving solutions as "very scary" [5][6]. - Other automakers, such as Mercedes-Benz, have also expressed dissatisfaction with NVIDIA's performance, leading to a shift towards competitors like Momenta for autonomous driving solutions [9][11]. Group 2: Competition from Chinese Companies - Chinese automakers are increasingly developing their own AI chips, with companies like NIO and Xpeng already delivering their self-developed chips, posing a significant threat to NVIDIA's market share [19][30]. - The article highlights that the delay in NVIDIA's Thor chip delivery has prompted companies like Xpeng to pivot towards their self-developed chips, indicating a loss of confidence in NVIDIA's ability to meet delivery timelines [24][25]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with Chinese companies rapidly advancing in autonomous driving software and hardware, making it difficult for NVIDIA to maintain its previous dominance [66][68]. Group 3: Implications of Chip Development - The development of self-research chips by automakers is seen as a strategic necessity, driven by the need for cost reduction and better integration with AI capabilities [45][49]. - The article notes that the challenges faced by NVIDIA in delivering the Thor chip have inadvertently accelerated the self-development of chips among leading Chinese automakers [31][30]. - The long development cycle for automotive chips, which can take up to four years, contrasts sharply with the faster-paced software development cycles seen in the industry [33][50]. Group 4: Cultural and Operational Differences - NVIDIA's corporate culture, which emphasizes long-term technological advancements, may not align with the immediate delivery needs of automotive clients, leading to operational friction [51][62]. - The article points out that NVIDIA's team in China lacks decision-making power compared to its larger U.S. team, which may hinder its responsiveness to local market demands [65]. - The disparity in urgency and operational focus between NVIDIA and its automotive partners has created a gap that competitors are eager to exploit [67][68].

Core Viewpoint - The recent controversy surrounding Xiaomi's YU7 smart cockpit, which utilizes consumer-grade chips instead of automotive-grade chips, has sparked discussions in the industry about the implications of this trend [2][3]. Group 1: Consumer-grade vs. Automotive-grade Chips - Consumer-grade chips, like Qualcomm's Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 used in Xiaomi YU7, prioritize performance and cost, while automotive-grade chips focus on safety and reliability, adhering to ISO 26262 standards [4][5]. - Automotive-grade chips must pass AEC-Q100 certification with a defect rate of ≤10 DPPM, whereas consumer-grade chips have a higher defect rate allowance of ≤500 DPPM [4]. - The operating environment for automotive-grade chips ranges from -40℃ to 150℃, while consumer-grade chips are limited to 0℃ to 70℃ [4]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Implications - The increasing demand for in-car entertainment and smart features has led to a higher reliance on consumer-grade chips, especially when automotive-grade chip production cannot keep pace with market needs [6]. - Some automotive companies are modifying consumer-grade chips to enhance their safety and reliability, as seen with Xiaomi YU7's thermal reinforcement and software scheduling [7]. - Despite the short-term benefits of using consumer-grade chips, experts warn that this approach may be detrimental in the long run due to safety concerns and the shorter lifespan of these chips compared to automotive-grade options [8][9]. Group 3: Future of Chip Usage in Automotive Industry - The automotive industry is expected to revert to using exclusively automotive-grade components as the demand for higher safety and reliability increases, particularly with the rise of integrated cockpit solutions requiring ASIL D safety levels [9][10]. - Leading chip manufacturers are expanding their capabilities to produce both consumer-grade and automotive-grade chips, indicating a shift in focus towards the automotive-grade market [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The chairman of XPeng Motors, He Xiaopeng, expressed optimism about the company's financial performance in Q2 2025 and announced plans for global expansion of its intelligent driving technology starting in 2026 [1][7]. Financial Performance - He Xiaopeng indicated that the financial results for Q2 2025 will be significantly better than previously expected, with improvements in operational capabilities starting from 2024 [7]. - The company aims to enhance its operational capabilities each quarter, focusing on technology rather than price competition [7]. Strategic Development - He Xiaopeng described a transformative period for XPeng Motors from the end of 2022 to 2025, anticipating a rapid growth phase beginning in Q4 2025 [8]. - The company plans to improve four key capabilities: technical, organizational, commercialization, and global integration [8]. Global Expansion Plans - XPeng Motors aims to launch its intelligent driving technology globally in 2026, although current regulations in Europe are not yet conducive to such advancements [8]. - The company is preparing for OTA (Over-The-Air) upgrades for its vehicles, which will support both hardware and software enhancements [8]. Collaboration and Technology - XPeng Motors is open to collaborations in chip development and superintelligence, alongside its own development of the Turing chip [8]. - The company collaborates with other chip manufacturers, including NVIDIA, to integrate over 5,500 chips in its vehicles, focusing on key chip development while partnering for others [8].

Company Overview - Company held a spring product launch on July 3, officially introducing the Xiaopeng G7 model, which is available in three versions with pricing exceeding market expectations [1] - The G7 model has a starting price range of 195,800 to 225,800 yuan, with significant user benefits included, such as Nappa seats and electric doors, indicating a competitive pricing strategy [1] Product Highlights - The G7 features the industry's first L3-level computing platform, local deployment of VLA+VLM models, and the "Chasing Light Panorama" AR-HUD technology developed in collaboration with Huawei, emphasizing family-oriented design, spaciousness, comfort, and safety [1] - The model achieved over 10,000 pre-orders within 9 minutes of launch, showcasing strong market demand [1] Sales Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved total monthly sales of 103,181 vehicles, maintaining a high monthly sales level of over 30,000 units, reinforcing its position among leading new energy vehicle manufacturers [2] - The successful launch and order performance of the G7 model further validate the company's ability to create blockbuster vehicles, with expectations for continued strong product cycles [2] AI Technology Integration - The Turing chip, designed specifically for AI, is now integrated into the G7, featuring a 40-core processor capable of running large models locally, enhancing the vehicle's AI capabilities [3] - The chip includes independent safety features and image processing capabilities to improve perception in various lighting conditions, contributing to the development of a comprehensive AI ecosystem for the company [3] Financial Outlook - Current stock prices for both Hong Kong and US markets correspond to a 1.5x P/S ratio for 2025, with a maintained outperform rating and profit forecasts [2][3] - Target prices are set at 108 HKD and 28 USD, indicating potential upside of 46% and 49% respectively, corresponding to a 2.2x P/S ratio for 2025 [3]

Core Insights - The launch of the Xiaopeng G7 marks a significant shift in pricing strategy, with a starting price of 195,800 yuan, which is below market expectations and significantly lower than competitors like Tesla's Model Y [2][4][14] - The G7 features advanced AI capabilities, including three Turing AI chips and a computing power of over 2250 TOPS, yet is priced competitively to attract a broader consumer base [2][4][6] - The competitive landscape has changed, with similar products entering the market at lower price points, prompting Xiaopeng to adjust its strategy to focus on affordability rather than high-tech premium pricing [4][13] Pricing Strategy - Xiaopeng's pricing strategy for the G7 is seen as counterintuitive, aiming to penetrate the mainstream market rather than adhering to the "high-tech equals high price" narrative [2][4] - The G7's pricing is positioned to disrupt the 200,000 to 300,000 yuan electric SUV market, offering superior hardware at a fraction of the cost of competitors [2][4][14] - The decision to price the G7 below 250,000 yuan was influenced by market competition and consumer feedback, indicating a shift in consumer expectations regarding pricing and technology [3][4][12] Market Competition - The entry of competitors like Xiaomi's Yu7, which achieved significant pre-order numbers, has influenced Xiaopeng's approach to market positioning and pricing [3][4][13] - Xiaopeng recognizes the need to differentiate its offerings by emphasizing the G7 as a family-oriented SUV while leveraging its AI capabilities [4][6][13] - The competitive landscape necessitates a focus on volume sales rather than high margins, prompting Xiaopeng to adapt its narrative and product positioning [4][5][6] Technological Development - The G7 is positioned as Xiaopeng's first "AI car," showcasing the company's commitment to integrating advanced technology into its vehicles [6][21] - The collaboration with Huawei on the AR-HUD system highlights Xiaopeng's strategy to enhance user experience through partnerships and technological innovation [9][10] - Xiaopeng aims to improve its technological capabilities across various dimensions, including software and hardware integration, to remain competitive in the rapidly evolving electric vehicle market [5][24][25] Future Outlook - Xiaopeng anticipates a strong market response to the G7, with production capacity prepared to meet demand immediately following the launch [23] - The company is focused on enhancing its organizational and commercial capabilities to support long-term growth and competitiveness in the global market [5][24][25] - Xiaopeng's leadership expresses confidence in the brand's ability to adapt and thrive amid industry changes, emphasizing the importance of survival and innovation in a competitive landscape [6][24][25]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors has developed its own chip, the "Turing" chip, which boasts an effective computing power of 2250 TOPS for the entire vehicle and 800+ TOPS for the intelligent cockpit AI, significantly surpassing industry competitors by 26 times [1][4]. Chip Development and Strategy - Xiaopeng Motors began chip development in 2020, with the Turing chip expected to be successfully produced by 2024 and integrated into the G7 model [1]. - The G7 Max 702 long-range version is priced at 205,800 RMB, which was perceived as high compared to its performance capabilities [1]. - Despite developing its own chip, Xiaopeng Motors will continue to collaborate with Nvidia and other global partners for chip and software solutions [1][4]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The domestic chip industry has rapidly developed due to supportive policies, market expansion, and technological innovation, with many Chinese automakers, including Xiaopeng, entering chip development [4]. - Xiaopeng Motors aims to leverage its chip technology not only in automotive applications but also in flying cars and robotics, emphasizing the importance of self-developed chips for maximizing capabilities [5]. - The company plans to invest nearly 5 billion RMB in AI by 2025, indicating a strong commitment to technological advancement [4]. Global Expansion and Regulatory Challenges - Xiaopeng Motors has expanded its market presence to 46 countries and regions, with overseas sales expected to exceed 18,701 units in the first half of 2025, a 217% year-on-year increase [10]. - The company is set to initiate its global smart driving strategy next year, anticipating regulatory changes in Europe that may allow for advanced autonomous driving features [10]. - The founder emphasizes the importance of integrating humanistic values into corporate development, which is seen as a future trend in global markets [11].

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors has launched its new SUV model, the Xiaopeng G7, with three versions priced between 195,800 to 225,800 yuan, emphasizing advanced AI capabilities and spacious design [1][4]. Product Features - The G7 comes in three versions: 602 Long Range Max, 702 Ultra Long Range Max, and 702 Ultra Long Range Ultra, priced at 195,800, 205,800, and 225,800 yuan respectively [1]. - The Ultra version features three self-developed Turing chips, providing 2250 TOPS of effective computing power and is described as the first AI car with L3-level computing capabilities [1]. - The G7's Turing AI driving system includes features like ETC passage, custom parking, and human-machine co-driving, with expanded coverage from urban roads to highways [1][2]. Technology and Performance - The Max version is equipped with dual OrinX chips from NVIDIA, offering over 500 TOPS of computing power, but lacks the upgrade path to the VLA model [2]. - The G7 integrates high-end electric vehicle technology, including an 800V high-voltage SiC platform and a 5C supercharging AI battery, achieving a range of 702 km and a consumption rate of 12.9 kWh/100 km [3]. - The vehicle features a spacious interior with a total space of 4.47 m³ and a trunk capacity of 819 L, expandable to 2277 L [2]. Safety and Comfort - The G7 includes 14 active safety features, with the AEB system capable of stopping from 130 km/h in real-world scenarios [3]. - The vehicle is designed for family comfort, featuring four seats with ventilation, heating, massage, and electric adjustments [2]. Market Positioning - The G7 is positioned within a complete family SUV matrix, targeting the 200,000 to 300,000 yuan pure electric SUV market, appealing to middle-class and tech-savvy consumers [3]. - The pricing of the G7 may exert pressure on the G6 model, which is priced between 176,800 and 198,800 yuan [4]. - To compete effectively against models like Xiaomi's Yu and Tesla's Model Y, the G7 must offer strong product value [5].