据央视新闻，外交部发言人郭嘉昆6月20日主持例行记者会。有记者提问，日前，世界银行发布报告显 示，2025年初中国经济保持增长势头，中国政府为应对全球贸易不确定性采取了相应的货币和 财政政 策。不久前 摩根大通、 高盛等国际机构也纷纷上调中国经济增长预期。发言人对此有何评论？郭嘉昆 表示，面对复杂的外部环境，中国经济顶压前行，稳中有进，向优向新，展现出强大韧性和发展潜力， 成为推进世界经济的"稳定源"，共享发展机遇的"引力场"。今年前5个月，中国货物进出口总值同比增 长2.5%，社会消费品零售总额增长5%，外国人来华消费更是火热升温， 离境退税新政实施首月全国离 境退税笔数同比增长116%，免签来中国将成为暑期出游的热门选择。事实证明，中国经济长期向好的 基本面不会变，超大规模市场和完整产业体系优势不会变，高质量发展和高水平对外开放的政策方向不 会变，这是国际社会持续看好中国、抢滩中国、深耕中国的信心之源。我们将坚定不移扩大开放，积聚 新动能，提供新机遇，以自身稳定发展为各国共同发展带来更多利好，注入更强动能。 ...

Group 1: Current Gold Market Performance - International spot gold prices have been in a downward trend, falling below $3,400 per ounce as of June 19, with a drop of 0.48% and a daily low of $3,347.20 per ounce [2] - In the domestic market, gold prices from certain brands and bank investment gold bars have also seen slight declines, with the Shanghai gold main contract down 0.49% [2] - The A-share precious metals sector and gold concept sector fell by 1.90% and 2.41% respectively, indicating poor recent performance in the gold market [2] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Price Decline - Global economic growth prospects have improved, leading investors to prefer stocks and emerging industries over gold, which diminishes gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3] - The weakening of gold's safe-haven attributes is evident as geopolitical tensions have not escalated significantly, reducing demand for gold as a protective investment [4] - Investment demand for gold has weakened due to the diversification of financial markets, with investors drawn to high-return sectors like digital currencies and emerging technologies [5] Group 3: Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve is maintaining interest rates in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, but uncertainty remains regarding future monetary policy, which could affect gold prices [6] - Despite the current downward trend in gold prices, a survey indicates that nearly 43% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the coming year, suggesting potential long-term support for gold prices [6]

越南副总理：实现今年8%的增长目标是一项重大挑战。 ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices fell to a near one-week low due to a stronger dollar and increasing concerns over global economic growth, with three-month copper down by $40.5 or 0.42% to $9,615 per ton [1][2] - Other base metals also experienced declines, with three-month aluminum down by $25.5 or 1% to $2,521.5 per ton, while zinc saw a slight increase of $4 or 0.15% to $2,640.5 per ton [2] - LME copper has rebounded 19% since hitting a near 19-month low of $8,105 in April [3] Group 2 - Concerns over regional tensions have strengthened the dollar, which typically weakens the prices of dollar-denominated commodities, leading to a cautious stance among funds [4] - A decrease in trading activity was noted as U.S. traders were absent due to the June holiday [4] - LME copper inventories decreased by 4,025 tons to 103,325 tons, marking the lowest level in over a year [7] Group 3 - The U.S. market has seen an influx of copper due to expectations of tariffs on copper imports, resulting in a premium for copper in the U.S. [8] - The aluminum market in the U.S. is experiencing a decline in premiums, with a drop of over 7% in consumer purchases, amid speculation of potential tariff reductions on Canadian aluminum imports [9] - The global lead market is projected to shift to a surplus of 6,900 tons by April 2025, contrasting with a shortage of 11,900 tons in March [9]

分析人士指出，全球经济背景尤其是中东地区的紧张局势加剧了油价波动，给英国央行决策带来了额外 挑战。摩根大通资产管理公司的全球市场分析师扎拉·诺克斯认为，当前的高通胀率仍然是一个令人不 安的因素，并警告称在有明确迹象表明劳动力市场降温能够有效抑制通胀前，央行应谨慎行事。 英国正面临地缘政治与外部风险的双重冲击。以色列与伊朗冲突导致油价单周飙升8.5%，直接推高英 国家庭能源账单和企业成本。英国央行虽认为关税冲击对全球GDP影响有限，但仍需警惕油价通过供应 链传导至核心通胀。服务业通胀（如工资-物价螺旋）和地缘政治风险（中东冲突推升油价）加剧了通 胀回落的不确定性。此外，就业市场持续降温（预算案后就业减少超25万）、薪资增长放缓、潜在GDP 增速疲弱（Q2预测仅0.25%），显示出经济下行压力加大。 新华财经北京6月20日电（崔凯）北京时间周四19:00，英国央行宣布将政策利率保持在4.25%的水平， 符合市场预期。尽管5月份数据显示物价上涨3.4%，远超央行设定的2%目标，货币政策委员会 （MPC）中的三位成员丁格拉、拉姆斯登和泰勒投票支持降息，这不仅显示了内部对于当前经济形势 的不同判断，也反映了"抗通胀优先 ...

·美国白宫：特朗普将在"两周内"决定是否对伊朗动武 ·英国央行维持基准利率不变 ·瑞士央行降息25个基点至0% ·挪威央行意外降息25个基点至4.25% 【资讯导读】 ·特朗普：美联储应该降息250个基点 ·美国总统特朗普19日签署行政令，将TikTok"不卖就禁用"法案执行宽限期再延长90天。 ·加拿大总理卡尼表示，加拿大将很快采取关税措施，应对全球产能持续过剩和钢铝不公平贸易带来的 风险。美国总统特朗普本月将钢铝进口关税提高至50%。卡尼称关税破坏了市场稳定，并表示将对来自 未与加拿大签署自由贸易协定国家的钢铁产品进口设立新的关税配额，额度为2024年进口水平的 100%。 ·英国央行19日宣布维持4.25%的基准利率不变，符合市场普遍预期。英国央行此次利率决策基于多重考 量。一方面，当前国内通胀水平仍高于英国央行设定的2%目标水平。另一方面，地区冲突加剧或将冲 击国际供应链稳定，进而引发英国通胀上行。在此情况下，英国央行对货币政策采取谨慎观察的立场。 ·西班牙首相桑切斯19日致函北约秘书长吕特，拒绝将西班牙军费开支增至占GDP的5%，认为这一目 标"不仅不合理，而且会适得其反"。 ·瑞士央行降息25个基 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese steel market is currently facing three major uncertainties that are primarily pressuring steel prices [1] Group 1: Market Pressures - The first uncertainty is the trajectory of the US-China "tariff war," with US tariffs on Chinese steel and related products reaching unprecedented levels, including a recent increase to 50% on steel and aluminum imports [2] - The second uncertainty is the global economic growth outlook, which has been negatively impacted by US tariff policies, leading to a pessimistic view of both US and global economic growth [3] - The third uncertainty involves China's steel production release, where despite government policies to control production, there remains a strong incentive for companies to increase output when prices rise, leading to a persistent oversupply situation [4] Group 2: Demand Resilience - Despite the ongoing impact of the US-China "tariff war," recent negotiations suggest that the situation may be stabilizing, with positive effects from China's counter-cyclical policies, particularly in the real estate market [5] - Industrial value-added output in China grew by 6.4% year-on-year in the first four months of the year, with manufacturing output increasing by 6.9%, indicating resilience in steel consumption [6] - Fixed asset investment in China also showed a year-on-year growth of 4%, suggesting that steel consumption in this sector remains robust despite challenges in the real estate market [6]

肖宇（中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院副研究员） 而美国劳工统计局的就业数据也并不弱，2025年5月美国的失业率为4.2%，虽然和今年1月的4.0%略有 增长，但环比变化不大。和2020年4月14.8%的失业率峰值相比，美国的劳动就业数据自2021年8月以 来，始终没有突破5%的阈值。目前的月度就业数据基本维持在2017年2月至2020年2月之间的水平，而 同期美国的联邦基金利率水平分别位于0.5%~0.75%和1.5%~1.75%区间。所以在核心通胀水平已接近目 标区间，而就业数据并不弱的支撑下，美联储保持4.25%~4.5%利率水平不变的决议似乎站不住脚。 为了更清晰观察这一反常行为背后的逻辑，还需要从美国经济增长数据中去寻找答案。同样是美国经济 分析局（BEA）的统计（公布季度数据），2025年一季度，美国国内生产总值的增速为-0.2%，而去年 四季度该数据还为2.4%。从2016年一季度至今，美国经济分析局共录得四次经济负增长，分别是2020 年一季度的-5.5%和当年二季度的-28.1%（但随即三季度变为正增长35.2%）、2022年一季度的-1.0%以 及本次2025年一季度-0.2%。 从成因 ...

Economic Growth and Consumption - The core viewpoint is that consumption will play a more significant role in driving economic growth this year, with retail sales expected to exceed a 5% growth rate, compared to 3.5% last year [2][5] - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, the highest growth rate since 2024 [4][5] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has effectively boosted sales, contributing 1.1 trillion yuan in sales across five major categories in the first five months [5] Foreign Trade Performance - The total value of goods trade in the first five months was 17.94 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5%, indicating better-than-expected foreign trade performance [10] - Exports to the EU and ASEAN increased significantly by 9.1% and 2.9%, respectively, while exports to the US decreased by 8.1% due to tariff increases [10] - The phenomenon of "export grabbing" has contributed to the positive foreign trade data, as companies rushed to export before anticipated tariff hikes [9][10] Service Consumption and Innovation - The shift in consumer demographics, particularly the rise of the post-95 and post-00 generations, is driving demand for emotional value and personalized consumption [6] - Service consumption can be categorized into survival, development, and experiential services, with a focus on promoting experiential services through innovative consumption scenarios [6] - Increasing public service investment and improving income distribution are essential for enhancing overall consumption [8] Policy Recommendations - To address weak price levels and stimulate consumption, targeted policy measures should include improving income distribution and increasing public consumption [8] - The government could consider expanding subsidies from durable goods to service consumption and providing direct consumption subsidies to low-income groups [5][8]

6月19日，英国央行召开货币政策会议，宣布维持基准利率4.25%不变。 英国央行如期维持利率不变 英国央行此次维持利率不变的决定，与周三美联储的行动一致。受此决策影响，英国国债和英镑汇率双 双下挫。 英国央行表示，英国GDP增长似乎仍然疲软，劳动力市场继续走软。迹象表明，随着时间的推移，疲软 的边际已经打开。薪酬增长指标继续放缓，同5月份一样，委员会预计今年剩余时间将显著放缓。 【导读】紧跟美联储，英国央行宣布维持基准利率4.25%不变 交易员还预计，到2026年夏季将有两次进一步的降息，届时利率将稳定在3.5%左右。 中信证券分析师指出，英国央行将锚定美联储政策路径，年内或仅降息两次。若全球经济因关税冲突再 度承压，政策宽松空间或被迫扩大。 英国央行正面临"通胀未达标"与"经济动能减弱"的双重挑战。当前政策利率4.25%仍处于紧缩区间，为 调整留足空间。短期来看，季度性降息将成为平衡通胀与增长的首选工具；中长期而言，全球贸易摩擦 与结构性失业问题或迫使央行采取更激进宽松措施。 挪威、瑞士央行宣布降息 在英国央行决议公布之前，欧洲地区部分其他国家的央行采取了降息行动。 日前，英国国家统计局公布的数据显示，英国 ...