Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints The report indicates that economic growth shows a situation of significant price increases but weak demand, with inflation characterized by insufficient momentum for a rebound in pork prices and weak and volatile oil prices [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Economic Growth: Significant Price Increases, Weak Demand 1.1 Production: Most Operating Rates Rebound - **Power Plant Daily Consumption Fluctuates at a High Level**: On July 22, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 882,000 tons, a 1.7% decrease from July 15. On July 15, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.27 million tons, a 5.7% increase from July 10 [4][11]. - **Blast Furnace Operating Rate Recovers Moderately**: On July 18, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.5%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from July 11; the capacity utilization rate was 90.9%, a 1.1 - percentage - point increase from July 11. In Tangshan, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills was 92.0% on July 18, a 0.8 - percentage - point increase from July 11 [4][14]. - **Tire Operating Rate Rebounds for Two Consecutive Weeks**: On July 17, the operating rate of all - steel truck tires was 65.1%, a 0.5 - percentage - point increase from July 10; the operating rate of semi - steel car tires was 76.0%, a 3.1 - percentage - point increase from July 10. The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions fluctuated within a narrow range [4][16]. 1.2 Demand: Steel and Glass Prices Rise Significantly - **New Home Sales in 30 Cities Turn Negative Month - on - Month**: From July 1 to 22, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 192,000 square meters, a 21.8% decrease compared to the same period in June, a 21.7% decrease compared to July last year, and a 35.1% decrease compared to July 2023 [4][21]. - **Automobile Market Retail Sales are Stable and Strong**: In July, retail sales increased by 7% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 34% year - on - year [4][23]. - **Steel Prices Strengthen Further**: On July 22, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil increased by 6.0%, 5.6%, 6.4%, and 3.4% respectively compared to July 15 [4][30]. - **Cement Prices are Continuously Under Pressure**: On July 22, the national cement price index decreased by 2.1% compared to July 15. The cement prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions decreased by 3.3% and 1.7% respectively [4][31]. - **Glass Prices Rise Significantly**: On July 22, the active glass futures contract price was 1,203 yuan per ton, an 11.2% increase compared to July 15 [4][35]. - **Container Shipping Freight Index Fails to Peak in the Peak Season**: On July 18, the CCFI index decreased by 0.8% compared to July 11, and the SCFI index decreased by 5.0% [4][38]. 2. Inflation: Insufficient Momentum for a Rebound in Pork Prices 2.1 CPI: Insufficient Momentum for a Rebound in Pork Prices - **Pork Price Rebound Lacks Momentum**: On July 22, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.7 yuan per kilogram, remaining stable compared to July 15. Since July, the average wholesale price of pork has increased by 1.2% month - on - month [4][44]. - **Agricultural Product Price Index Fluctuates at the Bottom**: On July 22, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.2% compared to July 15. By variety, eggs (up 4.9%) > chicken (up 1.1%) > beef (up 0.3%) > vegetables (up 0.2%) > pork (flat) > mutton (down 0.5%) > fruits (down 3.2%) [4][49]. 2.2 PPI: Oil Prices are Weak and Volatile - **Oil Prices are Weak and Volatile**: On July 22, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were $70.0 and $65.3 per barrel respectively, a 1.6% and 1.8% decrease compared to July 15 [4][52]. - **Copper and Aluminum Prices Rise**: On July 22, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 2.5% and 1.6% respectively compared to July 15 [4][56]. - **Most Industrial Product Prices Rise**: Since July, most industrial product prices have risen. The month - on - month prices of wire rod, cement, and steam coal have decreased, while other industrial product prices have increased month - on - month, with coking coal and coke leading the gains. The year - on - year decline of most industrial product prices has narrowed [4][60].

Group 1: Zhang Kun's Investment Strategy - Zhang Kun maintains a focus on core consumer stocks and is optimistic about the long-term resilience of the economy, with a total fund size of 55.047 billion yuan as of Q2 2025 [1] - The performance of Zhang Kun's funds in the first half of the year shows a return of 15.38% for the E Fund Asia Select fund, while the E Fund Blue Chip Select fund returned only 0.83% [1][3] - The top ten holdings include Tencent Holdings, Alibaba-W, and Wuliangye, with significant increases in positions for JD Health and SF Express, while Tencent Holdings saw a reduction [2][3] Group 2: Market Analysis and Outlook - Zhang Kun emphasizes that the current low valuations of holdings reflect expectations of future profit declines, making them attractive for long-term investors [4] - He believes that the economic growth will be driven by market forces, individual dynamism, and technological advancements, with a vision for GDP per capita to reach the level of moderately developed countries by 2035 [3][4] Group 3: Zhu Shaoxing's Investment Focus - Zhu Shaoxing's fund, the Fortune Tianhui Select Growth Mixed Fund, has a scale of 23.544 billion yuan and a stock position of 94.05%, with the top ten holdings accounting for 34.98% of net value [5][6] - The top ten holdings include Guizhou Moutai and Ningbo Bank, with new entries like Jerry Holdings and Guangdong Hongda, while companies like BYD and Luxshare Precision have exited the top ten [6][7] Group 4: Market Conditions and Future Expectations - Zhu Shaoxing notes that the market experienced volatility due to trade tensions but expects a resolution through negotiations, with monetary and fiscal policies actively supporting the market [7][8] - He highlights that the overall valuation of A-shares remains attractive, and the risk-reward ratio for equity assets is favorable, focusing on collecting high-potential companies for long-term value realization [8]

Group 1 - The recent trade agreements between the US and Japan, as well as the Philippines and Indonesia, outline new tariff structures, with Japan facing a 15% tariff on imports, particularly automobiles, which are a significant part of the US-Japan trade deficit [1][2] - The agreements indicate a shift towards a new normal in tariff levels, with 10% becoming the new baseline for zero tariffs, and the potential for other countries to adopt similar rates [1][3] - The agreements have led to a positive reaction in Asian stock markets, with significant gains observed, particularly in Japan's Nikkei 225 index, which rose by 3.2% [2] Group 2 - Despite the agreements providing some relief, key issues remain unresolved, particularly regarding potential tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, which are critical for economies like Taiwan and India [2][3] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has been more detrimental to investment than the tariffs themselves, with the ASEAN manufacturing sector showing signs of significant weakness, including a drop in new orders and increased layoffs [3] - The anticipated increase in tariffs may lead to inflationary pressures in the US economy, with Goldman Sachs economists predicting a rise in the baseline tariff rate from 10% to 15% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The "Red and White Cooperative" project initiated by Indonesian President Prabowo aims to shorten distribution chains and improve the supply of essential goods, particularly for economically disadvantaged groups, by establishing over 80,000 cooperatives nationwide [1][2]. Group 1: Project Overview - The project will create approximately 2 million job opportunities and provide services such as grocery delivery, fertilizer supply, subsidized gas, medical services, logistics, and financial services [1]. - Each cooperative can borrow up to 3 billion Indonesian Rupiah from state banks at an interest rate of 3%, with a total potential borrowing exceeding 240 trillion Indonesian Rupiah (approximately 15 billion USD) [1]. Group 2: Economic Strategy - This initiative is part of a broader strategy to enhance food security, reduce rural poverty, and eliminate predatory lending, with a goal of increasing the economic growth rate to 8% [2]. - Previous measures by Prabowo included a nationwide free meal program and health checks, indicating a consistent focus on economic stimulation [2]. Group 3: Concerns and Risks - The project has raised concerns regarding debt and fiscal risks, particularly due to the potential for mismanagement leading to financial burdens and increased corruption [2]. - A report estimates a debt default risk of up to 85.96 trillion Indonesian Rupiah for the cooperatives, with opportunity costs for state banks potentially reaching 76 trillion Indonesian Rupiah [3]. - If credit resources are diverted from high-productivity sectors, it could result in a GDP reduction of 9.85 trillion Rupiah and the loss of 824,000 jobs over the next six years [3]. Group 4: Support and Positive Perspectives - Some officials, like the Minister of Agriculture, view the cooperatives as a means to simplify food distribution and stabilize staple prices [3]. - Local leaders and citizens express support for the cooperatives, believing they will aid rural economic development and support small and medium enterprises [3].

Group 1 - The A-shares market showed mixed performance on July 22, 2025, with the infrastructure sector continuing to surge, while energy and coal sectors also saw gains in the afternoon [1] - The CSI A500 Index (000510) rose by 0.40%, with several constituent stocks, including China Energy Engineering (601868) and China Communications Construction (601800), hitting the 10% daily limit [1] - The CSI A500 ETF (563800) experienced a 0.50% increase, marking its fourth consecutive rise, with a trading volume of 1.373 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 8.08% [1] Group 2 - The CSI A500 Index is designed to reflect the overall performance of 500 representative listed companies across various industries, balancing traditional and emerging sectors [2] - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, growing by 5.3% year-on-year, indicating stable economic performance and progress in high-quality development [2] - Analysts predict a slower pace for the A-share market in the second half of 2025, with structural opportunities favoring both small and large-cap stocks, emphasizing a balanced allocation of high-growth small-cap stocks and stable dividend core assets [2] Group 3 - Everbright Securities suggests that the market may reach new highs in the second half of 2025, transitioning from policy-driven to fundamentals and liquidity-driven growth [3] - The market is expected to enter a new phase of upward momentum, potentially surpassing the peak levels of the second half of 2024 [3] - The CSI A500 ETF (563800) provides a convenient way to invest in high-quality leading companies across various industries, serving as a core asset allocation tool for A-shares [3]

Group 1 - The German government announced a large-scale investment initiative, committing to invest €631 billion by 2028 to boost the economy and enhance competitiveness [1] - The initiative, named "Made in Germany," is backed by major companies including Siemens, Deutsche Bank, BMW, Mercedes, Volkswagen, Allianz, Airbus, and NVIDIA, with a total of 61 participating firms [1] - The plan includes previously announced projects and over €100 billion in new investments, focusing on building new factories, research and development, and infrastructure over the next three years [1] Group 2 - German Chancellor Merz described the initiative as one of the largest investment plans in decades [1] - Julia Braune, CEO of the Federal Foreign Trade and Investment Agency, emphasized that the initiative signals a strong collaboration between the government and businesses to drive economic growth in Germany [1]

Economic Overview - In the first half of 2025, Hangzhou's total electricity consumption exceeded 50.3 billion kilowatt-hours, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, indicating overall economic growth across all three major industries: agriculture, industry, and services [1] - The electricity consumption pattern in Hangzhou reflects strong resilience and internal momentum in the economy, with a rapid increase in consumption during the first three months, followed by a slowdown in April due to international factors, and a significant recovery in May and June driven by effective economic policies [1] Digital Economy - The digital economy in Hangzhou is thriving, with service sector electricity consumption reaching 17.89 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%, continuing to be the main engine of economic growth [1] - The information transmission, software, and IT services sectors led the growth with a 15.7% increase in electricity consumption, while the internet services sector saw a remarkable growth rate of 237.7% [1] Industrial Transformation - Hangzhou's industrial electricity consumption totaled 21.71 billion kilowatt-hours in the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, with improvements noted in industrial operations [2] - High-tech manufacturing sectors such as instrument manufacturing, computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing, and biopharmaceuticals showed significant growth rates of 21.4%, 12.6%, and 12.0% respectively, while traditional chemical industries experienced a decline of 8.7% [2] - The consumption data indicates a strong recovery in the consumer market, with wholesale and retail, as well as real estate sectors, achieving double-digit growth rates of 13.1% and 11.8% respectively [2]

Economic Overview - In the first half of 2025, Sichuan's GDP reached 31,918.2 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.6% at constant prices [1] - The overall economic performance is characterized by steady progress, strong production support, and accelerated effective demand release [1] Agricultural Sector - Agricultural production showed steady improvement, with vegetable and edible fungus output increasing by 3.4%, fruit output by 6.4%, and tea output by 5.2% [1] - Aquatic product output reached 945,000 tons, growing by 5.2% [1] Industrial Sector - The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 7.3% year-on-year, with a product sales rate of 94.7% [1] - State-owned enterprises saw a 7.9% increase in added value, while foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises grew by 18.1% [1] - Key industries such as automobile manufacturing, chemical raw materials, and electronic equipment manufacturing experienced significant growth, with automobile manufacturing up by 21.0% [1] High-tech Industry - The added value of high-tech manufacturing industries increased by 13.1%, with electronic and communication equipment manufacturing growing by 22.2% [2] - Notable increases in production included natural gas (up 11.5%), smartwatches (up 99.2%), and lithium-ion batteries (up 50.8%) [2] Service Sector - The service sector's added value grew by 6.0%, with leasing and business services increasing by 12.4% and information technology services by 10.9% [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) rose by 2.7%, with the primary industry seeing a 16.5% increase [3] - Real estate development investment declined by 6.5%, with new commercial housing sales area down by 6.8% [3] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 14,160.2 billion yuan, growing by 5.6% year-on-year [4] - Online retail sales through enterprises above designated size increased by 22.5%, indicating a shift towards e-commerce [4] Economic Sentiment - The economic prosperity index, measured by the tax-electricity index, stood at 103.4, indicating a favorable economic climate [5]

Economic Overview - In July, economic prices increased while volumes decreased, indicating a search for rebalancing in supply and demand, with marginal economic growth expected to slow down[1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month increase, with the year-on-year decline in growth narrowing, primarily driven by the "anti-involution" policy expectations[1][45] Real Estate Market - The sales sentiment in the real estate market weakened, with both month-on-month and year-on-year growth turning negative; the average daily transaction area in 30 major cities decreased by 15.85% compared to June[2][11] - It is anticipated that first-tier city housing prices may stabilize by the end of the year, while second-tier cities may see stabilization by June next year[2][48] Industrial Demand - Industrial demand showed a mild recovery, with the rebar production rate increasing to 43.06%, up 0.87 percentage points from June, while prices slightly decreased by 0.16%[15] - The average operating rate for asphalt plants rose to 32.4%, indicating a recovery in demand, with asphalt inventory decreasing by 7.31%[18] Consumer Behavior - July consumer spending is expected to remain resilient, supported by a surge in tourism during the summer, with domestic tourism projected to exceed 2.5 billion trips, recovering to over 115% of 2019 levels[26] - The average daily subway ridership in major cities increased, reflecting a rebound in travel demand during the summer[23] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include unexpected intensification of global trade frictions, geopolitical conflicts, and policy effects falling short of expectations[3]

Economic Growth - China's economy achieved a growth rate of 5.4% in Q1 and 5.2% in Q2, resulting in a 5.3% growth rate for the first half of the year, easing pressure to meet the annual target of around 5%[1] - A growth rate of approximately 4.7% in the second half of the year is sufficient to meet the annual target[1] - Capital formation showed the most significant marginal improvement in driving economic growth, while external demand weakened[1] Consumption Trends - The monthly funding scale for the "old-for-new" policy was 27 billion yuan (approximately 162 billion yuan total) in the first half, decreasing to 23 billion yuan (approximately 138 billion yuan total) in the second half, indicating a potential decline in its impact on consumption[3] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to economic growth was 52.3% in Q2, up 0.3 percentage points from Q1, while capital formation contributed 24.7%, up 7.9 percentage points[9] - Retail sales growth is expected to decline by 1% in the second half compared to the first half due to the impacts of the "old-for-new" policy and a slowdown in restaurant income growth[3][22] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand imbalance has intensified, with a supply-demand gap of 3.76% in June, an increase of 1.74 percentage points from the previous value[9] - Industrial value-added growth was 6.4% in Q2, with a month-on-month increase observed, but the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a continuous decline, indicating weakening price pressures[12] Risks and Challenges - Effective demand insufficiency remains a critical issue that could undermine sustainable production growth, with the "anti-involution" policy potentially impacting short-term production[2][26] - Risks include unexpected intensification of global trade frictions, escalation of geopolitical conflicts, and policy effects falling short of expectations[28]