Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current performance of major stock indices, notable movements in technology and semiconductor stocks, the outlook for Chinese companies, and the economic forecasts from the OECD regarding the U.S. and global growth rates. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - As of the report, the S&P 500 index rose by 0.32% to 5954.92 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.13% to 42358.49 points, and the Nasdaq index climbed by 0.70% to 19377.49 points [1] - The technology sector showed mixed results, with Tesla rising over 1% as some models were included in China's 2025 new energy vehicle catalog, while Google fell by 1.1% [3] Group 2: Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector exhibited varied performance, with COHERENT up by 1.4%, ARM rising by 1.3%, NVIDIA increasing by 1.0%, and Broadcom gaining 0.9%, while ASML dropped by 1.6% [4] Group 3: Chinese Companies - Chinese companies saw significant gains, with Hesai Technology surging by 8.3%, Sunwoda rising by 3.1%, and Xunlei increasing by 2.7%. Li Auto also rose over 6%, reporting a May delivery of 40,856 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 16.7% [5] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The OECD has revised down the U.S. and global economic growth forecasts, with the U.S. growth rate for 2025 lowered from 2.2% to 1.6%, and the global growth forecast reduced to 2.9% [6] - Inflation is expected to rise to 3.2%, with the U.S. potentially nearing 4% [6] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent speech did not provide new signals regarding interest rate policy, as the market anticipates the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report [6][8] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee indicated that if the Trump administration's tariff measures are not as aggressive as expected, the Fed may significantly lower rates within the next 15 months [7]

Core Viewpoint - The belief that U.S. Treasury bonds are a safe haven is facing unprecedented challenges due to rising yields and concerns over fiscal deficits and debt levels [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Yields and Market Reactions - In late May, the yields on 20-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds surpassed the critical psychological level of 5.1%, leading to a significant sell-off in the long-term bond market [1]. - Fitch Ratings has warned that even if the U.S. fiscal deficit improves temporarily in 2025, it is expected to widen again, with debt-to-GDP ratio projected to reach 120% by 2026, significantly higher than the median for AA-rated countries [1][2]. Group 2: Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy - Current inflation is expected to remain around 4%, well above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, which complicates the Fed's decision-making process regarding interest rates [2][3]. - The Fed is anticipated to only lower interest rates once in the fourth quarter of this year, maintaining a cautious stance despite a projected economic slowdown [2][3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Business Sentiment - There is a noticeable decline in "soft data" related to business investment and hiring intentions, indicating weakening market sentiment [4]. - However, "hard data" such as unemployment claims and monthly employment reports do not yet show significant negative impacts on the labor market [4][5]. Group 4: Trade Uncertainty and Investment Outlook - Policy uncertainty has surged, affecting consumer and business spending decisions, with companies likely to delay investment decisions [5][6]. - The impact of trade uncertainties and inflation pressures is expected to suppress corporate willingness to initiate new projects, potentially leading to slower investment growth and reduced productivity in the medium term [5][6].

技术上，纽期金、银呈现突破态势，前者站上3400美元，后者逼近年内高点。 策略上，黄金配置、投机多单头寸持有为主。 消息面上，2026年票委、达拉斯联储主席洛根表示，由于劳动力市场稳定、通胀略高于目标以及前景不 明朗，美联储正在密切关注一系列数据，以判断可能需要采取何种应对措施。2025年票委、芝加哥联储 主席古尔斯比表示，在关税政策带来的不确定性消散之后，美联储可以继续降息。俄乌第二轮谈判草草 结束，双方关于止战条件分歧依然巨大。经济数据方面，美国5月ISM制造业PMI回落至48.5，预期 49.5；连续三个月萎缩。美国4月核心PCE物价指数年率2.52%，为去通胀进程启动以来最低，月率小幅 回升至0.12%，为年内次低水平。名义利率回升幅度超盈亏平衡通胀率，实际利率小幅回升对黄金压力 增强。短端美德利差开始走阔对美元支撑增强。 资金面上，金银配置资金同时增持，截至6月3日，SPDR持仓933.07吨（+2.86吨），iShares持仓 14351.82吨（+48.07吨）。金银投机资金同时流出，前者连续6日减持，CME公布5月30日数据，纽期金 总持仓40.88万手（-13818手）；纽期银总持仓14.7 ...

智通财经6月2日电，美联储的LOGAN表示，对于所面临的风险，政策处于良好的状态；关税的潜在风 险是失业率和通胀上升。 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market opened higher today, showing a complex trend influenced by the Federal Reserve's policy direction, which remains a key factor [1] - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.5%, with core inflation still above target, leading to a stronger US dollar (currently around 101.98), which pressures gold prices [1] - If the Federal Reserve officials signal a dovish stance in the future, gold prices may receive a boost [1] - Geopolitical risks, including tensions in the Middle East and military dynamics in the Yellow Sea, may drive short-term safe-haven demand for gold [3] - However, easing US-China tariffs and expectations of a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict could weaken market risk appetite, negatively impacting gold prices [3] - The largest gold ETF (SPDR) has shown frequent fluctuations in holdings, indicating significant market divergence [3] - Current gold prices are oscillating between $3280 and $3325, with key support at $3270 and resistance at $3325; a breakout above $3325 could lead to a rise to $3365, while a drop below $3270 may see prices fall to $3260 [3] Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - The silver market is experiencing price differentiation across different trading markets, influenced by an unclear global economic recovery outlook [4] - Geopolitical conflicts and trade tensions continue to disrupt the market, despite some countries implementing stimulus policies [4] - Industrial demand for silver is supported by its applications in photovoltaic and electronic industries, with steady growth in demand from the solar sector [4] - However, cyclical fluctuations in the electronics sector introduce uncertainty in silver demand [4] - Recent fluctuations in silver ETF holdings reflect investors' wavering confidence in the market [4] - Short-term support for silver prices is around $33 per ounce, with resistance seen at the $33.5-$33.8 per ounce range [6] - The MACD indicator shows signs of balance between bullish and bearish forces, while the RSI indicates a neutral to slightly bullish state [6] - The silver price is within an upward channel on the weekly chart, but faces resistance from previous highs, requiring strong trading volume for a breakout [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's policy positioning is deemed accurate, and maintaining stable policy interest rates is viewed as a positive decision [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve, represented by Daly, emphasizes the appropriateness of its current policy stance [1] - The decision to keep interest rates stable is highlighted as a proactive measure [1]

美联储可能会尽可能长时间地维持政策不变。因此，今年两次降息是合理的，这已被市场消化。 法国兴业银行美国利率策略主管Subadra Rajappa：债券市场真正关注的是所有不确定性对经济增长的影 响轨迹。 ...

美联储古尔斯比：有时联储不得不采取政治机构不愿意采取的措施。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment has improved significantly, leading to a cautious outlook on gold prices due to various economic factors and policy decisions [3][4]. Fundamental Analysis - U.S. Federal Court ruling against Trump's tariff policy has reduced concerns over international trade tensions, resulting in a rise in U.S. stock index futures and a continuation of the downward trend in spot gold [3]. - The Federal Reserve's May meeting minutes indicate a cautious stance on interest rate cuts, with a low probability of a rate cut in June (2.2%) and a higher probability in September (60%), which has made gold bulls wary [3]. - Strong consumer confidence data has bolstered views on the robustness of the U.S. economy, leading to a decrease in pessimism regarding economic conditions and a reduction in gold's safe-haven demand [3]. Technical Analysis - The daily chart shows gold has formed a pattern of three consecutive bearish candles, indicating a weak short-term outlook, with key support levels at 3243 and 3214 [5]. - On the four-hour chart, gold is in a downtrend, currently in the fifth wave of a decline from 3365, with immediate support levels at 3243 and 3235, and resistance levels at 3280-3290 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance reflects its desire for clearer insights into fiscal and trade policies and economic responses before making further interest rate adjustments [3][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Cautious Approach - The Federal Reserve has maintained a cautious approach to interest rate adjustments, recognizing the complexity and uncertainty of the current economic situation [3][6]. - Changes in fiscal policy, trade tensions, and economic data fluctuations can significantly impact interest rate decisions, prompting the Fed to wait for more data before acting [3][4]. Group 2: Market's Rate Cut Expectations - Despite the Fed's cautious stance leading traders to withdraw bets on a rate cut in June, there remains a market expectation for a rate cut before the end of September, with probabilities slightly above 50% [4][5]. - This expectation reflects market concerns about the economic outlook, anticipating that a slowdown in inflation could lead the Fed to adopt a more accommodative policy [4][5]. Group 3: Inflation and Economic Uncertainty - The uncertainty surrounding inflation and economic conditions is a critical factor influencing the Fed's decision-making process [5][6]. - If inflation slows, the Fed may consider providing more support to the economy through rate cuts; conversely, if inflation remains high, the Fed might keep rates unchanged or even consider further increases [5][6]. - Economic deterioration, such as slowing growth or rising unemployment, could compel the Fed to implement rate cuts or other stimulus measures to stabilize the economy [5].