肖宇（中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院副研究员） 据新华社消息，当地时间6月5日，欧洲中央银行宣布，将欧元区三大关键利率分别下调25个基点。这是 自去年3月欧央行宣布改变货币政策运作框架的第八次降息，和去年6月12日首次降息相比，欧元区的存 款机制利率、主要再融资利率（固定利率）和边际借贷利率分别从3.75%、4.25%和4.5%下降至2.00%、 2.15%、2.40%。 如此频繁且大规模降息背后，是高度不确定的世界市场给欧元区经济增长带来的压力与日俱增。诚如欧 央行官网首页公布的今年5月22日的一个讨论主题"贸易、紧张局势、关税以及整个充满不确定性的世 界"所展现的信息，面对地缘政治发展和全球金融失衡，欧央行维持物价稳定、确保充分就业、实现国 际收支平衡和推动经济增长的政策目标正面临着越来越大的挑战。 主要原因在于，宏观经济调控非常讲究财政政策和货币政策的配合使用，这也是IS-LM模型的基本原 理。比如，在利率水平极低的时候，人们不愿意进行投资，而更愿意持有现金，这个时候政府若用货币 政策刺激往往效果甚微，这就是所谓的凯恩斯陷阱（Keynes trap）。在全球范围内，日本平成时代的样 本就是一个典型例 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a four-day winning streak in June, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3385.36 points, up 0.04% [1] - The A500 Index ETF (159351) showed strong performance, with a total trading volume of 2.769 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 18.82%, both ranking first among similar products in the market [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a buyout reverse repurchase operation for the first time at the beginning of the month, injecting 1 trillion yuan into the banking system for a period of three months (91 days) [1] Group 2 - The A500 Index ETF tracks the CSI A500 Index, consisting of 500 stocks with large market capitalization and good liquidity, providing a balanced industry distribution and favoring large and mid-cap styles [2] - Investors can access quality core asset opportunities through the A500 Index ETF linked funds (Class A 022453; Class C 022454) [2]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) announced a 25 basis point cut in three key interest rates, effective June 11, marking the eighth rate cut in a year, signaling further monetary easing [1] - After the rate cut, the deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and marginal lending rate are set at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40% respectively [1] - ECB President Lagarde indicated that the monetary policy cycle is nearing its end, and the ECB is equipped to handle upcoming uncertainties at the current interest rate levels [1] Group 2 - The ECB unexpectedly lowered its inflation forecast for the Eurozone, projecting an overall inflation rate of 2.0% in 2025, 1.6% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, with the 2026 forecast being particularly surprising to the market [2] - The Eurozone's economic growth is showing signs of slowing, with projected GDP growth rates of 0.9% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026, and 1.3% in 2027 [2] - The ECB noted that global trade policy uncertainties may continue to suppress business investment and exports in the short term, but improvements in financing conditions will enhance the Eurozone's ability to withstand external shocks [2] Group 3 - The ECB will adopt a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determine appropriate monetary policy, without committing to a specific interest rate path [3] - This approach aligns with market expectations and allows for future policy flexibility [3] Group 4 - The divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Federal Reserve (Fed) may intensify, as the ECB continues its easing while the Fed has not cut rates this year, resulting in a rate gap of over 2 percentage points [4] - The Fed's Beige Book indicates a slight decline in U.S. economic activity, with tariffs and uncertainty impacting the economy broadly [4] - Fed officials view inflation as a primary risk, with many preferring to delay rate cuts due to the uncertain impact of tariffs on the economy [4] Group 5 - Fed officials express concerns about inflation risks, particularly due to the potential impact of Trump's trade policies, which may continue to push prices higher through various channels [5] - Current monetary policy is deemed effective in responding to macroeconomic changes [5] Group 6 - The impact of tariffs on U.S. economic growth and employment remains unclear, but there are concerns about their short-term effects on inflation [6] - President Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with the Fed's pace of rate cuts, raising concerns about the independence of the Fed's monetary policy [6]

| 市场 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 欧美 | 道琼斯工业平均 | 42319.74 | -108 | -0.25% | | | 纳斯达克 | 19298.45 | -162.04 | -0.83% | | | 标普500 | 5939.3 | -31.51 | -0.53% | | | 欧洲斯托克50 | 5410.55 | 5.4 | 0.10% | | | 英国富时100 | 8811.04 | 9.75 | 0.11% | | | 法国CAC40 | 7790.27 | -14.40 | -0.18% | | | 德国DAX | 24323.58 | 47.1 | 0.19% | | | 俄罗斯RTS | 1137.28 | -1.03 | -0.09% | | | 上证信数 | 3384.1 | 7.9 | 0.23% | | | 深证成指 | | 10203.5/L _ 58.92 | 0.58% | | | 创业板指anghul.co | | 2048.62 goguda23,68m | 1.17% | | | ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) announced a 25 basis point cut in key interest rates, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.00%, the main refinancing rate to 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate to 2.40%, aligning with market expectations [1] - This marks the fourth rate cut in 2023 and the eighth since the current easing cycle began in June 2024, reflecting ongoing economic challenges in the Eurozone [1] - The ECB's decision is influenced by weak economic growth and a recent drop in inflation to below the target rate of 2%, providing room for continued accommodative policies [1] Group 2 - The ECB projects Eurozone GDP growth rates of 0.9% for 2025, 1.1% for 2026, and 1.3% for 2027, with CPI growth expected to be 2% in 2025, followed by 1.6% and 2% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [1] - There is increasing market sentiment advocating for a pause in rate cuts, with concerns that trade barriers, a tight labor market, and rising infrastructure and defense spending may elevate inflation expectations in the medium term [1] - Following the rate decision, the euro experienced volatility against the dollar, initially rising before retreating, indicating market uncertainty [2]

智通财经APP获悉，在通胀率八个月来首次跌破2%关口，且美国关税政策持续冲击经济之际，欧洲央 行于当地时间6月5日宣布下调存款利率25个基点至2%，符合市场普遍预期。这是该行自2024年7月以来 第八次启动降息，进一步释放宽松货币政策信号。 欧洲央行在声明中指出："当前通胀率已接近管理委员会设定的2%中期目标水平。"尽管5月通胀率降至 1.9%的低位，但政策制定者仍保持谨慎态度。声明特别提及，特朗普政府实施的贸易保护主义政策正 对欧洲企业投资和出口造成短期压力，尽管各国政府增加的国防及基建投资或将在中长期为经济增长提 供支撑。 市场反应印证了政策调整的影响：德国十年期国债收益率应声下跌约5个基点至2.48%，显示避险情绪 升温;欧元兑美元汇率在短暂冲高后回落至1.1418，基本持平于降息前水平。货币市场小幅增加对今年 进一步降息幅度的押注，预计总计降息 33 个基点，相当于再次下调 25 个基点且有三分之一概率再下 调。 经济数据显示，欧元区经济放缓趋势愈发明显。本周数据显示 5 月份通胀率降至 1.9%，为 8 个月来首 次跌破 2%，也是 2021 年以来第二次，经济放缓主因服务业价格涨幅放缓，而此前这一 ...

Economic Overview - South Korea's new president, Lee Jae-myung, has pledged to initiate an emergency economic task force to achieve a virtuous economic cycle through national finances [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May was reported at 116.27, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, which is below the Bank of Korea's 2% inflation target [1][3] - The economic outlook is grim, with many financial institutions lowering their growth forecasts for South Korea due to ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. [1][5] Inflation and Price Trends - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.0% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, indicating persistent inflation in personal services [3] - Prices for petroleum products fell by 2.3% year-on-year, with gasoline and diesel prices decreasing by 3.5% and 5.5%, respectively [3] - Agricultural and livestock prices saw a slight increase of 0.1%, while the fresh food index dropped by 5.0% year-on-year [3] Government Response and Fiscal Policy - The South Korean government approved a supplementary budget of 13.8 trillion KRW (approximately 725.7 million RMB) to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs and stabilize prices [4] - The Bank of Korea has revised its economic growth forecast for the year down to 0.8%, significantly lower than previous estimates [4][5] - The new administration is expected to implement fiscal stimulus measures to support strategic industries and enhance the stock market [9] Trade Relations and External Pressures - The U.S. has increased tariffs on steel and aluminum, which poses a significant challenge for South Korea's export-driven economy [8] - South Korea is the fourth-largest steel exporter to the U.S., accounting for 13.1% of U.S. steel imports, and is facing increased export pressure due to the tariff hikes [8] - The ongoing trade negotiations with the U.S. are seen as critical for the new government's success [7][9] Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the new government, the yield on South Korea's 10-year government bonds rose by over 10 basis points to 2.90% [9][10] - Analysts predict that bond issuance may exceed initial plans, with estimates suggesting issuance could reach 230 trillion KRW in 2025 [9] - The Bank of Korea has lowered the benchmark interest rate from 2.75% to 2.5%, with expectations of further reductions by year-end [10]

Group 1 - Danske Bank reports an improvement in the US dollar's performance following better-than-expected hiring data, with the 30-year US Treasury yield approaching 5% [1] - The US job market data, including ADP employment figures and initial jobless claims, will be closely monitored for further insights [1] - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.4% and 1.5%, influenced by market concerns over long-term bond demand and upcoming significant events [2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs indicates that Trump's "retaliatory tax" clause may weaken foreign investors' interest in US assets, potentially redirecting attention to European markets [2] - European investors' confidence is rising, with the proportion of investments in the US expected to reverse from 45% back to lower levels, as the European Stoxx 600 index has increased by 8% since early 2025 [2] - South Korea's inflation rate has slowed to 1.9% in May, below the central bank's target, providing a basis for potential monetary easing to support economic growth [3] Group 3 - HSBC economists predict that the Reserve Bank of India will lower interest rates by 25 basis points in an upcoming meeting, with another cut expected in August, bringing rates down to 5.5% [4] - The Indian central bank has room for further policy easing, focusing on interest rate tools rather than liquidity injections, with inflation projected to remain below target levels [4] - The final interest rate cut of the year may occur in December, contingent on the economic growth situation at that time [4]

瑞银：全球 AI 支出增长强劲，需平衡半导体与软件股敞口 三井住友银行：日元强势难现，寿险公司调整海外投资策略 三井住友信托银行策略师指出，日元的实际利率太低，使得其强势表现的可能性减小。由于认为日元重 现历史性强势的可能性降低，日本寿险公司减少了防止日元升值带来损失的措施。日本央行的政策利率 比该国通胀率低3个百分点，导致市场对加息预期降温。这两大因素降低了日本投资者对海外债券的兴 趣，即使考虑外汇保护成本后，日本国债的复合收益率仍高于美国、英国、德国和澳大利亚等国家的同 类债券。日本财务省数据显示，寿险公司在特定期间内持续净抛售外国债券，同时在海外股票投资上也 出现了从买入到卖出的转变；如果美联储如掉期市场预测那样最早于9月开始降息，那么美元对冲成本 将随之下降，可能会促使寿险公司增加对冲需求，并影响外币兑日元汇率。 PIMCO投资组合经理预计，德国拥有更多财政空间，而其他欧洲国家需在预算中补偿国防开支上升。 欧洲整体财政政策在未来几年不太可能大幅扩张，反映出财政约束加剧背景下各国的不同应对能力。德 国10年期国债收益率将在2.5%至3.5%之间波动，假设欧洲央行政策利率维持在2%。德国10年期国债收 益 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are expected to decline this week due to the strengthening of the US dollar, despite a year-to-date increase of over 22% [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The rise of the US dollar as a safe-haven asset is putting pressure on gold prices [1] - Market focus is shifting towards the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which is a key inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The PCE report is anticipated to show a slowdown in price increases for the previous month, potentially allowing for a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [1] - A decrease in interest rates typically enhances the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [1]