Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In a high - volatility bond market environment, balancing offense and defense is a challenge for investors. Although credit bonds lack effective coupon protection and have lower liquidity, coupon - type assets still have value for increased holdings. By decomposing the comprehensive return of credit bonds into holding return and capital gain and conducting stress tests on individual bonds, investors can adjust their allocation strategies [2][10]. - The increase in bond market volatility places higher requirements on investors' liability - side management and trading timing capabilities [3][15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Individual Bond Stress Test Tool - **Bond Market Volatility Background**: Since last September, the bond market has experienced multiple fluctuations. After the "924" new policy impulse, it entered a cycle of redemptions and sharp declines. In November, with the release of loose capital signals, it entered a pre - emptive trading phase. After the New Year, the bond market was affected by factors such as tight capital in January, strong equity performance and improved economic fundamentals in February, and volatile equity trends and tariff factors in March. As of last Friday, the proportion of outstanding credit bonds with yields below 2.2% rose to 71%, and those below 2.0% reached 38%, leading to high volatility in the bond market [9]. - **Analysis of Credit Bonds**: Credit bonds currently lack effective coupon protection and have lower liquidity than interest - rate bonds. The window period for market trends is short under high volatility. To balance liquidity and return enhancement, coupon - type assets are still worth increasing. Decomposing the comprehensive return of credit bonds into holding return and capital gain can help judge entry and exit points [2][10]. - **Stress Test of Urban Investment Bonds**: In April, the absolute yield of urban investment bonds dropped to a low level. Assuming purchase at the current coupon rate and holding for two weeks or three months, in the two - week holding scenario, low - coupon urban investment bonds' comprehensive return can hardly withstand capital gain losses. In the three - month holding scenario, for a 50bp yield increase, the comprehensive return of 1 - year urban investment bonds is still positive; for a 20bp increase, some AA and AA(2) term varieties can also achieve coupon coverage of losses [2][10]. - **Stress Test of Bank Sub - debt**: The stress test results of bank sub - debt are less favorable. Whether holding for two weeks or three months, even when facing a 20bp yield increase, the comprehensive return of Tier 2 capital bonds and perpetual bank bonds is difficult to maintain in the positive range [3][13].

4月15日，A股缩量震荡。 4月15日，期权隐含波动率震荡下行。上证50ETF当月合约平值期权的隐含波动率在14.3%左右。当日， 历史波动率继续走低，上证50ETF的30日历史波动率为21.90%，沪深300指数的30日历史波动率为 23.78%。隐含波动率与历史波动率价差走扩。 整体上，A股反弹至前期跳空缺口后缩量震荡，期权隐含波动率有所回落。此外，以上证50指数为代表 的大盘指数相关期权，认沽虚值增持力度较大；以科创50指数、中证1000指数为代表的小盘指数相关期 权，认购虚值增持力度较大。操作上，投资者可逢高卖出小盘指数认购期权。（作者单位：中信建投期 货） （文章来源：期货日报） 上证50ETF期权成交量增加10.85%，持仓量增加8.41%，分别至150.02万张和173.10万张。从5月合约各 执行价的持仓变动情况来看，合计增持2.69万张，其中认购增持1.02万张、认沽增持1.67万张。认购、 认沽增持价位均较宽泛，且均在虚值部位增持，其中认沽增持力度更大，预计市场延续震荡格局。 沪深300期权成交量整体下降，而持仓量有所增加。从交投较为活跃的上交所沪深300ETF期权持仓变动 情况来看，5月 ...

Group 1: Earnings Expectations - Lockheed Martin Corp is set to announce first-quarter results on April 22, with analysts predicting earnings of $6.42 per share and revenue of $17.76 billion, reflecting year-over-year growth of approximately 1.4% and 3.3% respectively [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - The stock was recently trading at $473.46, down 0.4%, and is on track to end a five-day winning streak, with the $480 level acting as a resistance [2] - Over the past six months, Lockheed Martin shares have decreased nearly 22% [2] Group 3: Post-Earnings Trends - Historically, Lockheed Martin stock has not performed well post-earnings, closing lower after five of the last eight quarterly reports, with notable declines of 9.2% and 6.1% following the last two earnings announcements [5] - The average next-day price swing for the stock over the last two years has been 3.9%, which is lower than the 5.2% move currently priced in by options traders [5] Group 4: Options Market Sentiment - Options traders are showing a strong bullish sentiment towards Lockheed Martin, with a call/put volume ratio of 3.81, ranking higher than 87% of readings from the past year [6] - The stock has a history of exceeding volatility expectations, indicated by a Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) score of 95 out of 100, suggesting it often delivers larger price movements than anticipated by options traders [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the option market data of various underlying assets on April 8, 2025, including the implied volatility of at - the - money options, 30 - day historical volatility, and the true range of the day. It also provides basic information, volatility trading suggestions, and risk - free arbitrage returns for different exchange - listed options [3][4][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Shanghai Stock Exchange Options 3.1.1. Shanghai 50ETF - **Basic Information**: The trading volume of the main options is 1,327,067 lots, the open interest is 995,843 lots, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options is 1.23, and the weighted average implied volatility is 27.22% [19][22]. - **Volatility Trading**: Different months: sell the month with the curve on top, buy the month with the curve below; same month: sell the option with the point on the curve above, buy the option with the point below [24]. - **Risk - Free Arbitrage**: The minimum annualized return of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity is 89.4% at the settlement price and 26.9% at the counter - price [28][30]. 3.1.2. Huatai - Berry CSI 300ETF - **Basic Information**: The trading volume of the main options is 1,140,414 lots, the open interest is 806,814 lots, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options is 1.01, and the weighted average implied volatility is 31.73% [31][33]. - **Volatility Trading**: Similar to the Shanghai 50ETF, sell the month or option with the curve or point above, buy the one below [37]. - **Risk - Free Arbitrage**: The minimum annualized return of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity is 73.2% at the settlement price and 24.9% at the counter - price [40][42]. 3.1.3. Southern CSI 500ETF - **Basic Information**: The trading volume of the main options is 1,386,820 lots, the open interest is 646,442 lots, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options is 0.84, and the weighted average implied volatility is 40.85% [43][46]. - **Volatility Trading**: Follow the rule of selling high and buying low on the volatility curve [51]. - **Risk - Free Arbitrage**: The minimum annualized return of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity is 35.4% at the settlement price and 23.9% at the counter - price [53][55]. 3.1.4. Huaxia Shanghai Science and Technology Innovation Board 50ETF - **Basic Information**: The trading volume of the main options is 1,024,532 lots, the open interest is 993,129 lots, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options is 0.87, and the weighted average implied volatility is 57.71% [56][58]. - **Volatility Trading**: Adopt the strategy of selling high and buying low on the volatility curve [62]. - **Risk - Free Arbitrage**: The minimum annualized return of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity is 67.0% at the settlement price and 22.4% at the counter - price [65][67]. 3.1.5. E Fund Shanghai Science and Technology Innovation Board 50ETF - **Basic Information**: The trading volume of the main options is 227,894 lots, the open interest is 257,582 lots, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options is 0.96, and the weighted average implied volatility is 55.69% [68][70]. - **Volatility Trading**: Sell the month or option with the higher position on the volatility curve and buy the lower one [72]. - **Risk - Free Arbitrage**: No specific data provided.

I 2025/03/31 2025/04/03 50ETF 83.38 -18.36% - 1 0.72 300ETF 79.77 120.51 500ETF 111.88 97.28 50ETF 64.02 163.5 100ETF 4.61 8.36 ETF 95.68 119.02 300 7.16 19.82 1000 20.17 22.58 300 14.85% 0.70% 50ETF 14.17% 0.65% 1000 22.98% 1.10% 50ETF 14.69 300 16.15 1000 22.4 2011 1290 Z0014889 F03124116 I 2025/03/31 2025/04/03 1.15 1. 金融期权方面，50ETF期权本周日均成交量为83.38万张，较前周下降-18.36%，其 中认沽期权成交量高于认购期权，认沽-认购成交比为1，相对前周有所上升，高于 历史均值水平。上周认沽认购持仓比为0.72，较前周下降，低于历史均值。华泰柏 瑞300ETF期权日均成交79.77万张，日均持仓量120.51万张；南方中证500ETF期权 日均成交111.88万张，日均持仓量 ...

① 近期美股遭遇迅猛回调，此次跨越 16 个交易日的调整是美股历史上最快的下跌行情之一 （过去 75 年只发生过 6 次）。此轮暴跌源于特朗普关税政策的不确定性、疲软经济数据及市场 恐慌情绪升温。 ② 历史经验显示，极端下跌行情多由政策冲击（如关税）或系统性风险（如金融危机）触发， 但恐慌后往往孕育反弹机遇。2025 的特朗普关税，与 2018 年贸易战引发的市场震荡高度相 似。 ③ RockFlow 投研团队认为，投资者可以采取多空策略（反向ETF）、波动率对冲（VIX相关工 具）及"小熊保险"等组合拳，同时利用"抄底宝"捕捉超跌优质资产。投资本质上是一种乐观的 行为。我们仍然保持长期乐观。 RockFlow 本文共3517字， 阅读需约13分钟 划重点 过去一个月，美股迎来迅猛回调，市值蒸发逾 4 万亿美元，继 2024 年 11 月特朗普当选总统后美股取得的涨幅全部化为乌有，投资者对令人担忧的 市场迹象保持警惕。 本篇文章，RockFlow 投研团队将带你深入探究特朗普上任以来美股为何经历如此剧烈的下跌，以及参考美股的总统行情表现，当下是否是一个抄 底的好时机。最后，我们将为你分享四种有效的波动市场应对 ...

划重点 ① 近期美股遭遇迅猛回调，此次跨越 16 个交易日的调整是美股历史上最快的下跌行情之一 （过去 75 年只发生过 6 次）。此轮暴跌源于特朗普关税政策的不确定性、疲软经济数据及市场 恐慌情绪升温。 ② 历史经验显示，极端下跌行情多由政策冲击（如关税）或系统性风险（如金融危机）触发， 但恐慌后往往孕育反弹机遇。2025 的特朗普关税，与 2018 年贸易战引发的市场震荡高度相 似。 ③ RockFlow 投研团队认为，投资者可以采取多空策略（反向ETF）、波动率对冲（VIX相关工 具）及"小熊保险"等组合拳，同时利用"抄底宝"捕捉超跌优质资产。投资本质上是一种乐观的 行为。我们仍然保持长期乐观。 RockFlow 本文共3517字， 阅读需约13分钟 过去一个月，美股迎来迅猛回调，市值蒸发逾 4 万亿美元，继 2024 年 11 月特朗普当选总统后美股取得的涨幅全部化为乌有，投资者对令人担忧的 市场迹象保持警惕。 这一切要归咎于特朗普关税政策的不确定性，以及部分最新美国经济数据加剧了市场对未来经济增长的担忧。 冲击之下，美股三大指数遭遇抛售，不到一个月，标普 500 指数从 2 月 19 日的历史高点下 ...

能源化工期权日报 2025-03-14 能源化工期权策略早报 期权研究 卢品先 从业资格号：F3047321 交易咨询号：Z0015541 0755-23375252 lupx@wkqh.cn 能源化工类期权主要分为5大类：（1）基础化工类：甲醇期权、橡胶期权、合成橡胶期权和苯乙烯 期权；（2）能源类：原油期权、液化气期权；（3）聚酯化工类：对二甲苯期权、PTA期权、乙二醇 期权和短纤期权；（4）聚烯烃化工类：聚丙烯期权、PVC期权和聚乙烯期权；（5）其他化工：烧碱 期权、纯碱期权、尿素期权。 以下主要是通过各类能源化工期权的基本面、行情分析、波动性分析，然后给出策略操作与建议。 能源化工期权研究 （一）基础化工类板块：甲醇期权、橡胶期权、合成橡胶期权、苯乙烯期权 | | 甲醇期权 | | --- | --- | | 标的基本面 | 卓创甲醇开工率71.64%（-1.47%），西北开工率83.97%（-0.91%）。国内开工率下 降，春检兑现持续跟进。鹤壁煤化工50 万吨/年甲醇装置3 月6 日到3 月27 日检 | | | 修；新疆广汇60 万吨/年2 月22 日到4 月15 日检修；安徽临泉30 万吨/年 ...

文/复旦大学管理学院青年副研究员 常惠丰 编辑丨周茗一 学术界和业界普遍发现，来自债券和股票市场的风险指标对宏观经济活动具有显著的预测能力。实证研 究表明，当债券信用利差上升或股票波动率提高时，企业投资往往会减少。然而一个重要的实证发现 是，尽管信用利差和股票波动率均包含了企业资产波动率和杠杆率的信息，但在预测企业投资方面，信 用利差的表现显著优于股票波动率。对于这一现象，原有研究尚未形成统一的解释。是因为债券市场投 资者拥有更强的信息优势，而股票市场的价格更容易受到投机泡沫的影响，还是债券价格能更有效地反 映下行风险，而股票价格则更多地包含了关于未来增长机会的信息？ 论文的研究发现 从这个问题出发，复旦大学管理学院青年副研究员常惠丰、斯德哥尔摩经济学院金融学副教授阿德里安 ·达韦纳斯（Adrien d'Avenas）和美国加州大学洛杉矶分校安德森商学院教授安德莉亚·艾斯菲尔德 （Andrea Eisfeldt）共同撰写的论文《债券与股票：投资的信息》（Bonds vs. Equities: Information for Investment）（以下简称论文），系统探讨了股票波动率、资产波动率、信用利差、杠 ...