| 项目类别 | 数据指标 IF主力合约（2603） | 最新 4697.0 | 环比 数据指标 +103.8↑ IF次主力合约（2601） | 最新 4714.0 | 环比 +95.6↑ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IH主力合约（2603） | 3098.8 | +77.2↑ IH次主力合约（2601） | 3097.4 | +73.2↑ | | | IC主力合约（2603） | 7596.0 | +229.4↑ IC次主力合约（2601） | 7664.8 | +209.6↑ | | | IM主力合约（2603） | 7639.0 | +200.0↑ IM次主力合约（2601） | 7759.2 | +179.6↑ | | 期货盘面 | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1616.6 | +20.4↑ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 2950.8 | +117.4↑ | | | IM-IC当月合约价差 | 94.4 | -31.4↓ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 4567.4 | +137.8↑ | | | IM-IF当月合约价差 | 3045.2 | +8 ...

股指期货全景日报 2025/12/29 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：IF:沪深300 IH:上证50 IC:中证500 IM：中证1000 IO:沪深300期权 研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 微信号：yanjiufuwu 电话：0595-86778969 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保 证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公 司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院， 且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF主力合约（2603） IH主力合约（2603） | 4610.2 3038.0 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - In early December, the market will still be in a multi - vacuum period of macro data, performance, and policies. Without clear trading guidance, the market is expected to maintain a random - walk state, and stock index futures will remain volatile. The domestic economic fundamentals, with all three major PMI indices in the contraction range in November, especially the manufacturing PMI in contraction for 8 consecutive months, may have a negative impact on market sentiment [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Prices - IF主力合约（2512）price is 4530.6, up 17.2; IH主力合约（2512）price is 2968.2, up 13.0; IC主力合约（2512）price is 6983.2, up 42.0; IM主力合约（2512）price is 7213.4, up 28.0 [2]. - Price differences between different contracts show various changes, such as IF - IH当月合约价差 up 2.6 to 1562.4, IC - IF当月合约价差 up 20.4 to 2452.6 [2]. - Differences between different quarters and the current month also vary, e.g., IF当季 - 当月 is - 38.4, down 2.6 [2]. Futures Position - IF前20名净持仓 is - 19,498.00, down 175.0; IH前20名净持仓 is - 11,870.00, up 487.0; IC前20名净持仓 is - 21,167.00, up 182.0; IM前20名净持仓 is - 33,240.00, down 1242.0 [2]. Spot Prices - The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index is 4546.57, up 15.5; the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index is 2974.3, up 11.3; the China Securities 500 index is 7012.8, up 16.5; the China Securities 1000 index data is provided, and A - share trading volume is 15,616.65 billion yuan, up 0.4 [2]. Market Sentiment - North - bound trading volume is 1873.09 billion yuan, up 75.49; main - force funds are - 686.96 billion yuan, down 321.57; the proportion of rising stocks is 26.67%, up 0.22; Shibor is 1.302%, up 0.001 [2]. - IO平值看涨期权收盘价（2512）is 40.60, up 3.40; IO平值看跌期权收盘价（2512）is 58.40, down 8.60 [2]. - The 20 - day volatility of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index is 13.89%, down 0.97; the trading volume PCR is 60.61%, down 13.68; the open - interest PCR is 73.71%, up 0.39 [2]. Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - The strength of all A - shares is 3.80, up 0.40; the technical aspect is 2.70, up 0.10; the capital aspect is 5.00, up 0.80 [2]. Industry News - A - share major indices closed with mixed results. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.4%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.01%. Trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets declined significantly, with nearly 3900 stocks falling. Most industry sectors declined, with the comprehensive and beauty - care sectors leading the decline, and the machinery and electronics sectors leading the gain [2]. - Overseas, the US small non - farm payrolls in November weakened significantly, supporting the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December. Domestically, in November, among the three major PMI indices, the non - manufacturing PMI and the composite PMI declined compared to October, only the manufacturing PMI rose slightly, and all three were in the contraction range, putting pressure on the market [2]. Key Data to Watch - On December 4, 20:30, watch the US Challenger job - cuts in November; 21:30, watch the US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29. On December 5, 23:00, watch the US PCE and core PCE for November [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - In October, multiple domestic economic indicators softened, indicating significant downward pressure on the economy and suppressing the stock market. The LPR has remained unchanged for six consecutive months, reflecting a prudent monetary policy with a low possibility of significant reserve - requirement ratio cuts or interest rate cuts this year. Currently, the market is in a vacuum period of macro - data, performance, and policies. Without clear trading guidance, the market is expected to move randomly, and stock indices will maintain a volatile trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Data - **IF Contracts**: The latest price of the IF (CSI 300) main contract (2512) is 4435.2, down 5.6 from the previous period; the next - main contract (2603) is 4406.0, down 3.8. The net position of the top 20 in IF is - 24,375.00, down 65.0. The basis of the IF main contract is - 12.9, up 12.4 [2]. - **IH Contracts**: The latest price of the IH (SSE 50) main contract (2512) is 2944.4, down 5.8; the next - main contract (2603) is 2941.4, down 4.0. The net position of the top 20 in IH is - 10,799.00, down 60.0. The basis of the IH main contract is - 6.2, up 3.3 [2]. - **IC Contracts**: The latest price of the IC (CSI 500) main contract (2512) is 6827.6, up 37.4; the next - main contract (2603) is 6666.8, up 46.6. The net position of the top 20 in IC is - 23,171.00, down 630.0. The basis of the IC main contract is - 41.4, up 6.0 [2]. - **IM Contracts**: The latest price of the IM (CSI 1000) main contract (2512) is 7095.2, up 59.0; the next - main contract (2603) is 6886.0, up 67.0. The net position of the top 20 in IM is - 35,140.00, down 1776.0. The basis of the IM main contract is - 61.2, down 11.7 [2]. - **Contract Spreads**: Various spreads such as IF - IH, IC - IF, IM - IC, etc. for the current - month contracts have shown different degrees of increase. For example, the IF - IH current - month contract spread is 1490.8, up 8.8 [2]. 3.2 Market Sentiment Data - **Trading Volume and Balance**: A - share trading volume is 17,403.50 billion yuan, down 2432.49 billion yuan; margin trading balance is 24,614.50 billion yuan, down 302.53 billion yuan. North - bound trading volume is 2334.02 billion yuan, up 413.48 billion yuan [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The proportion of rising stocks is 77.61%, up 71.17 percentage points. Shibor is 1.316%, down 0.004 percentage points. IO at - the - money call option closing price is 75.60, down 11.80; the implied volatility is 16.23%, down 2.33 percentage points [2]. 3.3 Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - The strength of all A - shares is 7.30, up 5.40; the technical aspect is 7.80, up 7.20; the capital aspect is 6.80, up 3.60 [2]. 3.4 Industry News - A - share major indices generally rose at the close. The three major indices opened higher and then declined in the morning, and rebounded after hitting the bottom in the afternoon. Small and medium - cap stocks were stronger than large - cap blue - chip stocks. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.37%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.31%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased significantly. Over 4200 stocks in the whole market rose. Most industry sectors rose, with national defense and military industry and media sectors strengthening significantly, while petroleum and petrochemical, and coal sectors leading the decline [2]. 3.5 Key Data to Focus On - November 25, 21:30: US September PPI, core PPI, retail sales. - November 26, 21:30: US November 22 weekly initial jobless claims. - November 26, 23:00: US October PCE, core PCE. - November 27, 9:30: China's October industrial enterprise profits above designated size. - November 30, 9:30: China's November manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI [3].

Core Insights - The 19th National Futures (Options) Trading Competition saw a total of 167,928 participating accounts, with total equity reaching 49.9 billion yuan, marking an increase of 11.22% compared to the previous competition [4][5][6] - Professional traders demonstrated a significant advantage, with over half of the profits coming from them, while smaller traders faced increased losses [1][11] - The competition highlighted a shift towards institutionalization in the trading landscape, with high-net-worth and quantitative groups showing substantial profitability [35][36] Participation and Equity - The total number of participating accounts increased by 3.91% compared to the last competition, with the high-net-worth group seeing a growth of 5.84% [4][5] - Total equity peaked at 52.2 billion yuan during the competition, with 499 billion yuan recorded at the end [4][6] - The average equity per account in the high-net-worth group rose to 15.01 million yuan, an increase of 206,000 yuan from the previous year [6] Profitability Analysis - The overall loss for the competition was 2.1%, a significant improvement from the previous year's loss of 5.2% [11][12] - The high-net-worth group achieved a profit of 33.8 million yuan, while the quantitative group made 7.6 million yuan, both marking their third consecutive year of profitability [9][11] - The lightweight group, however, recorded a loss of 53 million yuan, the highest in five years [9][11] Trading Volume and Performance - A total of 80 futures varieties were traded, with a transaction volume of 450 million contracts, and the top five by volume included glass, soda ash, and焦煤 [29][30] - The trading volume for the lightweight group accounted for 53% of total transactions, despite having a lower equity share [30] - The competition saw a notable increase in the number of accounts trading options, with 66,354 accounts participating, representing 39.51% of total accounts [28][33] Market Trends and Insights - The competition's profitability was closely tied to market trends, with participants capitalizing on bullish trends in precious metals and stock index futures [19][31] - The high-net-worth and quantitative groups displayed superior market handling, effectively mitigating the impact of market volatility on profits [21][36] - The competition served as a platform for talent development, with many successful participants being recruited by private equity and risk management firms post-competition [35][36]

Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - A - share major indices closed with collective gains. The three major indices opened and closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index regaining the 4000 - point mark. The overall equity market's bullish sentiment remains relatively high due to the double expectations of the Fed's further interest - rate cut and the Sino - US summit. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position and prioritize allocating to IC and IM [2]. Summary by Relevant Contents Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The latest prices of IF, IH, IC, and IM main and secondary contracts all increased compared to the previous period. For example, the latest price of the IF main contract (2512) is 4732.6, up 57.6 [2]. - **Contract Spreads**: Most of the contract spreads between different varieties increased, such as the IF - IH spread which rose by 46.6. However, the IM - IC spread decreased by 43.6 [2]. - **Quarter - to - Month Spreads**: Some quarter - to - month spreads changed, with the IF and IH quarter - to - month spreads mostly decreasing, while the IC and IM quarter - to - month spreads showed mixed trends [2]. - **Net Positions of Top 20 Holders**: The net positions of the top 20 holders of IF and IC decreased, while those of IH and IM increased [2]. Spot Market - **Spot Index Prices**: The prices of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all increased, with the CSI 300 rising to 4747.84, up 55.9 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts all increased [2]. Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume and Margin Trading**: The A - share trading volume and margin trading balance increased, with the A - share trading volume reaching 22906.74 billion yuan, up 1253.67 billion yuan [2]. - **Options and Volatility**: The closing price of the IO at - the - money call option increased, while that of the put option decreased. The implied volatility of the call option increased, and that of the put option decreased [2]. Industry News - **International Events**: Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino - US relations and common concerns. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points [2]. - **Domestic Policies**: The full text of the "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions was released, aiming to achieve various economic and social development goals, including promoting high - tech self - reliance and strengthening new productive forces [2]. Company Earnings - The net profit growth rate of all A - shares and CSI 500 has accelerated significantly, with the CSI 500's net profit growth rate exceeding 10% [2]. Key Events to Watch - From October 27 - 31, 4347 A - share listed companies will disclose their third - quarter reports. On October 30, there will be interest - rate decisions from the Fed, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank. On October 31, there will be China's PMI data and US economic data such as PCE [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - A股主要指数收盘普遍上涨，三大指数全天高开后维持震荡态势，沪深两市成交额大幅回落，全市场超4000只个股上涨，行业板块普遍上涨，通信、煤炭板块大幅走强，有色金属板块逆市领跌 [2] - 海外方面，特朗普在关税政策上的松动对市场风险偏好有一定修复；国内方面，经济基本面有喜有忧，政策端市场关注二十届四中全会对“十五五”规划的安排，预计以发展新质生产力为主线 [2] - 9月工业生产支撑经济，通缩压力减缓，通胀预期回升有提振作用，但中美贸易问题困扰市场，宏观层面不确定性大，前期估值偏高的中小盘股面临回调压力，建议暂时观望 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: IF主力合约（2512）涨至4506.8，环比+22.2；IH主力合约（2512）涨至2970.4，环比+8.8；IC主力合约（2512）涨至6909.2，环比+44.2；IM主力合约（2512）涨至7059.2，环比+35.0 [2] - **Futures Spreads**: IF - IH当月合约价差为1547.8，环比+16.2；IM - IC当月合约价差为165.6，环比+25.6等 [2] - **Futures Positions**: IF前20名净持仓为 - 27,364.00，环比+774.0；IH前20名净持仓为 - 16,222.00，环比 - 185.0等 [2] - **Basis**: IF主力合约基差为 - 31.4，环比 - 2.4；IH主力合约基差为 - 4.5，环比+0.3等 [2] 3.2 Market Sentiment - A股成交额为17,512.95亿元，环比 - 2031.13；两融余额为24,293.85亿元，环比 - 278.11等 [2] 3.3 Industry News - 前三季度国内生产总值1015036亿元，同比增长5.2%；9月规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.5%；1 - 9月全国固定资产投资同比下降0.5%等 [2] - A股主要指数收盘普遍上涨，海外特朗普关税政策松动，国内经济基本面有变化，政策端关注二十届四中全会 [2] 3.4 Key Data to Focus On - 10月24日15:15 - 16:30关注法国、德国、欧元区、英国10月SPGI制造业PMI；20:30关注美国9月CPI、核心CPI；21:45关注美国10月SPGI制造业PMI [3]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of China's options market has significantly enhanced its ability to serve the real economy, becoming a crucial pillar for capital market reform and risk management in a volatile global financial landscape [1][2]. Market Growth - The market scale has continuously expanded, with record high open interest of 13.48 million contracts on August 6, 2025, and a daily average open interest increase of 207% compared to 2022 [2]. - The number of listed options has accelerated, with 62 options currently available, covering major sectors such as energy, agriculture, and metals [7]. - Corporate participation has increased, with notable growth in open interest and trading activity among corporate clients in various sectors, indicating a rising acceptance of options as flexible risk management tools [2][6]. Historical Development - The options market in China has evolved from its inception in 2015, with significant milestones including the launch of the first financial ETF options and commodity options, paving the way for a comprehensive derivatives market [4][5]. - The period from 2015 to 2018 was characterized by the expansion of pilot programs and regulatory frameworks, establishing a solid foundation for market growth [4]. - Since 2019, the market has entered a phase of accelerated growth, with the introduction of various commodity options and the expansion of index options [5]. Performance Metrics - In the first half of 2025, the average daily trading volume of financial futures options reached 284.78 billion yuan, reflecting a sustained increase in market activity [3]. - The average daily trading volume for the soybean meal options was 148,100 contracts, with a year-on-year increase of 29.72%, while gold options saw a staggering 173.54% increase in average daily trading volume [3]. Future Outlook - The options market is expected to continue expanding, with projections indicating that the total trading volume could exceed 1 trillion yuan in 2025, supported by economic recovery and foreign capital inflow [9]. - Product innovation is anticipated to accelerate, with exchanges expected to introduce more options products to achieve full industry chain coverage [9]. - The integration of options with insurance products is expected to empower more small and medium-sized enterprises, enhancing their risk management capabilities [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the A - share major indices closed generally lower. Although the economic data in August was under pressure, the financial data showed that residents were shifting from excess savings to increased consumption. The RMB was under short - term pressure due to Powell's hawkish remarks, but the dot - plot indicated two more rate cuts this year, which would reduce the RMB depreciation pressure and provide room for domestic policy easing. Therefore, stock indices still have long - term upward potential, and it is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices**: The prices of IF, IH, IC, and IM main and sub - main contracts all declined. For example, the IF main contract (2509) dropped from the previous level to 4487.2, a decrease of 61.2 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: All spreads such as IF - IH, IC - IF, etc. showed a downward trend. For instance, the IF - IH monthly contract spread decreased by 20.6 to 1576.4 [2]. - **Futures Seasonal - Monthly Spreads**: Most of the seasonal - monthly spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased, except for the IH seasonal - monthly spread which increased slightly [2]. - **Futures Position Holdings**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased. For example, the IF top 20 net position decreased by 3206 to - 24,119 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Index Prices**: The prices of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all declined. For example, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 dropped by 52.9 to 4498.11 [2]. - **Contract Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts all decreased [2]. 3.3 Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume and Balance**: A - share trading volume increased by 7637.19 billion yuan to 31,666.43 billion yuan, and the margin trading balance increased by 127.92 billion yuan to 24,054.44 billion yuan [2]. - **North - bound Trading and Repurchase**: North - bound trading volume increased slightly, and the reverse repurchase operation volume increased while the maturity volume decreased [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The proportion of rising stocks decreased, the Shibor increased, the closing price of the IO at - the - money call option decreased, the closing price of the IO at - the - money put option increased, and other indicators showed different trends [2]. 3.4 Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - The overall A - share market, technical, and capital aspects all showed a weakening trend in the Wind market strength - weakness analysis [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time this year and after a 9 - month pause. The A - share major indices closed generally lower, with small and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chip stocks. The domestic economic data in August was under pressure, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed significantly [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - A-shares' major indices mostly closed higher, with the market entering the macro data verification phase during the performance and policy vacuum period. August economic data remained under pressure, with real estate significantly dragging down fixed - asset investment and the marginal weakening of the trade - in policy pressuring social retail. However, previous financial data indicated a shift from excess savings to increased consumption, and the Fed's potential rate cut would provide room for domestic policy easing. Therefore, stock indices still have long - term upward potential, but poor economic data short - term pressures the market. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Contracts Prices**: IF main contract (2509) was at 4527.8 (+2.0↑), IC main contract (2509) at 7114.2 (-38.2↓), IH main contract (2509) at 2962.4 (-7.4↓), IM main contract (2509) at 7368.6 (-32.2↓) [2] - **Futures Spreads**: IF - IH current - month contract spread was 1565.4 (+10.8↑), IC - IF current - month contract spread was 2586.4 (-30.4↓) [2] - **Futures Seasonal Spreads**: IF current - season minus current - month was -30.8 (-4.6↓), IH current - season minus current - month was 0.2 (-0.6↓), IC current - season minus current - month was -174.8 (-23.6↓), IM current - season minus current - month was -225.4 (-6.2↓) [2] - **Futures Net Positions**: IF top 20 net positions were -28,938.00 (-1367.0↓), IH top 20 net positions were -18,383.00 (+136.0↑), IC top 20 net positions were -25,779.00 (+937.0↑), IM top 20 net positions were -47,196.00 (+58.0↑) [2] 3.2 Spot Market Data - **Underlying Index Prices**: CSI 300 was at 4533.06 (+11.1↑), SSE 50 was at 2962.6 (-5.9↓), CSI 500 was at 7137.4 (-10.4↓), CSI 1000 was at 7415.6 (-7.3↓) [2] - **Basis**: IF main contract basis was -5.3 (-6.5↓), IH main contract basis was -0.2 (-0.3↓), IC main contract basis was -23.2 (-15.4↓), IM main contract basis was -47.0 (-16.9↓) [2] 3.3 Market Sentiment Data - **Trading Volume and Balance**: A - share trading volume (daily) was 23,031.80 billion yuan (-2451.32↓), margin trading balance (previous trading day) was 23,515.70 billion yuan (+111.45↑), north - bound trading volume (previous trading day) was 3112.83 billion yuan (-39.84↓) [2] - **Other Indicators**: The proportion of rising stocks (daily) was 35.28% (-0.22↓), Shibor (daily) was 1.408% (+0.041↑), IO at - the - money call option closing price (2509) was 29.00 (-3.00↓), IO at - the - money put option closing price (2509) was 51.20 (-5.40↓) [2] 3.4 Industry News - **Economic Data**: In August, the year - on - year actual growth of above - scale industrial added value was 5.2% (expected 5.7%, previous 5.7%); social consumer goods retail sales were 39668 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% (expected 3.8%, previous 3.7%); from January to August, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 326111 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%, with private fixed - asset investment down 2.3% year - on - year; from January to August, real estate development investment was 60309 billion yuan, down 12.9% year - on - year; in August, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2] - **Market Performance**: A - share major indices closed with mixed results. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.26%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.63%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.51%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets significantly declined, and over 3300 stocks fell. Overseas, the US August PPI unexpectedly turned negative month - on - month, which supported the Fed's September rate cut [2] 3.5 Key Data to Watch - September 16, 20:30: US August import and export price indices, retail sales, and core retail sales - September 18, 2:00: Fed interest rate decision - September 18, 19:00: Bank of England interest rate decision - September 19, 10:47: Bank of Japan interest rate decision [3]