野村证券：贸易关税进一步明确可能帮助市场最终走高 金十数据7月7日讯，野村证券分析师在一份研究报告中表示，随着7月9日期限的临近，市场可能会出现 波动。近期前景可能取决于几个关键因素，包括关税税率、此类关税的生效日期以及新协议涉及的国 家。分析师们表示："尽管多种可能情况下的不确定性仍然很高，但我们认为，贸易关税的进一步明确 可能实际上有助于市场最终走高。"他们表示，新的关税协议可能会减少不确定性，让投资者暂时把注 意力放在其他积极的事态发展上，比如美联储的降息主题和人工智能叙事。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides trend forecasts for various futures products, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., with different products showing trends such as rising, falling, and fluctuating [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][6][9]. - **Silver**: Continued to rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Global inventories increased, and prices fluctuated, with a trend strength of 0 [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Traded sideways, with a trend strength of 0 [2][14]. - **Lead**: Supported by short - term consumption peak season expectations, with a trend strength of 1 [2][16][17]. - **Tin**: Driven by the macro - environment, with a trend strength of 0 [2][19][22]. - **Nickel**: Upside potential was limited, and prices were under pressure at low levels, with a trend strength of 0 [2][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: Inventories were slightly digested, and prices recovered but with limited elasticity, with a trend strength of 0 [2][24][29]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Prices were under pressure, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][30][33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Adopt a strategy of shorting at high prices, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][34][36]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to policy changes, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][34][36]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations were volatile, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][37]. - **Rebar**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][39][42]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][40][42]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][43][46]. - **Manganese Ferrosilicon**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][43][46]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase was brewing, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][48][50]. - **Coking Coal**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][48][50]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption recovered, and prices stabilized with fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52][55]. - **Log**: The main contract switched, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][56][58]. - **Para - Xylene**: Cost support was weak, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][59][65]. - **PTA**: Close the long - PX short - PTA position, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][59][66]. - **MEG**: Traded in a single - sided oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][59][66]. - **Rubber**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [2][67]. Others - **Fuel Oil**: Adjusted narrowly at night, with low - level fluctuations in the market [4]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Strong in the short - term, with the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market oscillating at a high level [4]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 08 contract oscillated and sorted; hold a light short position in the 10 contract [4]. - **Short - Fiber**: Traded weakly with oscillations, and demand pressure gradually emerged [4]. - **Bottle Chip**: Traded weakly with oscillations, long PR short PF [4]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Fundamental contradictions were not obvious, and prices were greatly affected by international oil prices [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: There was insufficient speculation on U.S. soybean weather, lacking driving forces [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: The U.S. soybean market was closed overnight, lacking guidance, and the Dalian soybean meal might oscillate [4]. - **Soybean No. 1**: Spot prices were stable, and the market oscillated [4]. - **Corn**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [4]. - **Sugar**: Traded in a narrow range [4]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to U.S. tariff policies and their impacts [4]. - **Egg**: It was difficult to increase the culling rate, and attention should be paid to the pre - emptive expectations [4]. - **Live Pig**: The gaming sentiment increased [4]. - **Peanut**: There was support at the bottom [4].

南华贵金属日报: 美非农超预期 焦点重转7月9日关税期限 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年7月7日 【行情回顾】 上周贵金属市场整体仍小涨，尽管降息预期受美国强劲非农就业报告影响降温，引发美债收益率走高，但 美国贸易关税政策不确定性，特别是美经济回归货币财政路径仍削弱美指，并利多贵金属。周四晚间公布的 美国6非农就业报告强于预期，新增就业人数录得14.7万人，预期11万，前值上修0.5万至14.4万人；失业率 录得4.1%，数据意外下降，预期4.3%，前值4.2%。数据后交易员不再押注美联储7月降息，9月降息概率下 降。另外，周二晚间公布的美6月ISM制造业PMI小幅回升至49，高于预期和前值；5月职位空缺数776.9，高 于预期和前值，一定程度削弱降息预期。美国虽与英国、越南达成贸易协议，但与日本、欧盟与印度等主要 经济体谈判仍僵持，且美越协议中携带第三方关税条款。特朗普表示已签署12封贸易信函，计划周一发 出。"大而美"法案已获通过，将美国联邦政府的法定债务上限提高5万亿美元，国会预算办公室（CBO）估 计，这可能会让政府预算赤字未来十 ...

2025 年 07 月 07 日 铅：短期消费旺季预期支撑 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 17295 | 0.29% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 2057 | -0.29% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 24330 | -10116 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 3570 | -1679 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 51672 | -1206 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 151720 | 2420 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | -40 | -5 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -24.63 | 1.84 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -55 | -65 | 进 ...

2025 年 07 月 07 日 锌：横盘运行 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 22410 | 0.38% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 2735.5 | -0.09% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 153571 | 20897 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 4385 | -1982 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 128000 | 66 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 205849 | -883 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | 90 | -20 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -21.64 | 2.36 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | 广东 0# 锌升贴水 | 30 | -20 | 进口提单溢价（美 | 1 ...

金十数据7月7日讯，美国财政部长贝森特周日表示，对于未与特朗普政府达成贸易协议的国家，今年4 月宣布的关税将在8月1日重新生效。 贝森特说："特朗普总统将致信我们的一些贸易伙伴，说如果你们 不采取行动，那么在8月1日，你们的关税将回到4月2日的水平。"他说， 8月1日，未达成协议的国家 将"收到一封信"。贝森特拒绝了8月1日是又一个新的关税截止日期的想法，但8月的日期仍可以给贸易 伙伴更多时间来重新谈判关税税率。贝森特说："我们说的是，当事情发生的时候，如果你想加快速 度，那就赶紧开始，如果你想回到原来的税率，那是你的选择。"今年4月，特朗普宣布暂停对大多数主 要贸易伙伴征收的高额关税，为期90天。关税暂停令将于周三（7月9日）到期。 （CNBC） 跟踪全球贸易动向 +订阅 贝森特称未达协议的国家8月1日起将面临关税 但否认该日期为"新大限" ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the escalating trade tensions between the US and its allies, particularly India, in response to Trump's proposed tariff increases from 50% to 70% [2][4] - India has reacted strongly against the US tariffs, refusing to accept the proposed 70% tariff and retaliating by filing a complaint with the WTO while also imposing tariffs on US agricultural products [4][6] - The situation has led to a significant shift in India's foreign policy, as it seeks to strengthen ties with BRICS nations and explore alternative trade agreements, indicating a strategic pivot away from reliance on the US [8][10] Group 2 - Japan and South Korea are also feeling the pressure, with Japan advocating for negotiations instead of tariffs, while South Korea is caught between maintaining US relations and appeasing China [10][11] - Southeast Asian countries are reacting to the shifting trade dynamics, with Thailand imposing tariffs on Vietnamese goods, and German companies expanding production in India to mitigate supply chain risks [11][12] - The overall trade landscape in Asia is becoming increasingly volatile, with countries adjusting their strategies in response to US tariff threats and the evolving geopolitical climate [12][13]

2、7月1日，国家医保局、国家卫生健康委联合印发了《支持创新药高质量发展的若干 措施》，提出加大创新药研发支持力度，鼓励商业健康保险公司通过创新药投资基金等 多种方式，为创新药研发提供稳定的长期投资，培育支持创新药的耐心资本。 2、美国总统特朗普7月2日宣布，美国将对越南出口商品征收20%关税，任何从第三国 通过越南转运的商品将面临40%的关税。他并称，越南将对美国产品征收零关税。 01 重要事件回顾 1、6月份，中国制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.7%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，中美关 税降级影响仍在逐渐显现，修复速度略有放缓。6月制造业PMI分项普遍修复，生产、订 单、进口、价格等普遍修复，但就业指标小幅回落。 3、美国6月非农就业人数大幅超预期。美国6月季调后非农就业人口录得14.7万人，预 期为11万人，高于5月修正后的14.4万人。美国6月失业率录得4.1%，为2月份以来的最 低水平，低于预期4.3%。数据公布后，目前市场对九月份美联储降息的概率约为80%。 4、7月1日参议院通过《大而美丽法案》。7月3日美国众议院以218:214通过修改后的 《大而美丽法案》。白宫表示，美国总统特朗普将于当地 ...

5. 周五：①数据：英国5月三个月GDP月率、制造业产出月率、季调后商品贸易帐、工业产出月率；法 国6月CPI月率终值；瑞士6月消费者信心指数；加拿大6月就业人数。②事件：美联储戴利就美国经济 前景发表讲话；IEA月报。 6. 周六：①数据：美国至7月11日当周石油钻井总数。 3. 周三：①数据：美国API、EIA原油库存周报、美国5月批发销售月率；中国6月CPI；新西兰利率决 定。②事件：EIA月度短期能源展望报告；新西兰联储利率决议和货币政策评估报告、主席奥尔召开新 闻发布会；美国对等关税暂停期结束。 4. 周四：①数据：美国10年期国债竞拍、初请失业金人数、EIA天然气库存；德国6月CPI月率终值；中 国6月M2货币供应年率。②事件：美联储会议纪要、美联储穆萨莱姆就美国经济和货币政策发表讲话。 ③2025中国汽车论坛将于10日~12日召开。 金十数据整理：下周重要事件与数据预告——中国外汇储备、CPI重磅公布 美联储会议纪要与美国对等 关税暂停期结束两面夹击 1. 周一：①数据：德国5月季调后工业产出月率；英国6月Halifax季调后房价指数月率；欧元区7月 Sentix投资者信心指数、5月零售销售月率 ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices fell by $90, or 0.9%, closing at $9,864.5 per ton, after reaching a three-month high of $10,020.5 earlier in the week [1] - Other base metals also experienced declines, with LME three-month aluminum down $15 to $2,590.0, zinc down $26.5 to $2,724.0, lead down $5.5 to $2,058.5, nickel down $161 to $15,290.0, and tin down $146 to $33,702.0 [2][6][7][8][9][10] - Market sentiment is cautious as major trading partners, including the EU, Japan, and India, continue negotiations with the U.S. regarding trade agreements, with potential tariffs looming [3] Group 2 - The U.S. job report showed an increase of 147,000 non-farm jobs in June, exceeding economists' expectations, which may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [4] - The market anticipates a 95.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates during the July meeting, up from 76.2% earlier [4] - Guinea's bauxite exports are projected to increase by 36% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching a record 99.8 million tons [5]