Group 1 - Trump's comments indicate that the U.S. is already in a trade war, with a suggestion that tariffs are necessary to avoid vulnerability [2] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's statement implies that negotiations will only occur if beneficial to the U.S. economy, not due to stock market fluctuations [2] - The S&P 500 has been fluctuating within the same range for three consecutive days, indicating market caution and a wait-and-see approach [2] Group 2 - Gold prices have surpassed $4200, reaching a historical high, signaling a shift towards global defensive strategies amid a "no-trust trading period" [3] - Increased volatility in the stock market contrasts with decreased volatility in the bond market, suggesting a build-up of fear without an expansion of risk [4] - Negative news is being quickly priced into the market, leading to short-lived rebounds and diminishing market patience [4]

Core Points - President Trump's threat to halt imports of Chinese cooking oil is seen as an economic hostile act, but analysts suggest it will have minimal market impact due to the already declining trade volume between the U.S. and China in this sector [1][3] - The U.S. has become a significant importer of used cooking oil (UCO) from China, with exports reaching a record 1.27 million tons valued at approximately $1.2 billion in 2024, but recent trade tensions have led to a sharp decline in UCO imports [3][4] - The value of soybean trade between the U.S. and China is significantly higher than that of cooking oil, with soybean exports projected at $24.58 billion in 2024, highlighting the critical nature of this trade relationship [4][7] Trade Dynamics - China's UCO exports to the U.S. have dropped by 65% from January to August 2023, falling to 290,000 tons valued at $28.67 million, as Chinese exporters shift focus to Europe and domestic markets [3][4] - The U.S. soybean market is under pressure due to China's pivot to South American suppliers, with potential losses estimated at 14 to 16 million tons if China does not resume purchases by mid-November [4][7] - U.S. farmers are facing financial strain, with increased costs for fertilizers and equipment due to tariffs, leading to a rise in farm bankruptcies by approximately 50% compared to the previous year [7][8] Market Reactions - Analysts indicate that Trump's threats have not affected UCO pricing, as the market has already adjusted to reduced U.S. demand [3][4] - The flexibility of China's trade system allows it to expand relations with South American countries, which are now major suppliers of soybeans to China [8][9] - The Chinese government maintains a consistent stance on trade issues, emphasizing that trade wars yield no winners and advocating for negotiations based on mutual respect [9]

Group 1 - The Chinese government opposes the politicization of trade issues and emphasizes the importance of adhering to market principles in international trade [2][3] - China has clarified its stance on export controls regarding rare earths, stating that these measures are in line with international obligations and aimed at maintaining regional and global stability [3][8] - The Chinese government maintains that trade wars and tariff battles yield no winners and advocates for negotiations based on equality and mutual respect [4] Group 2 - The Chinese government supports market-based cooperation between Chinese and European companies and opposes forced technology transfers as a form of protectionism [7] - There are ongoing discussions regarding the impact of China's export controls on South Korean shipbuilders, with calls for respect for multilateral trade rules [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals returned to an upward trend. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 2.09%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 2.30%. The short - term safe - haven demand increased due to the trade war and the US government shutdown, and the risk of stagflation in the US economy rose with weak employment and moderate inflation, leading to the realization of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. The precious metals are expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term and rise step - by - step in the long term [2]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare Silver ETF slightly increased. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver slightly decreased [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Core Logic**: Short - term safe - haven demand increased due to the trade war and the US government shutdown. The risk of stagflation in the US economy increased with weak employment and moderate inflation, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation began to be realized. Trump's trade war escalation, the US government shutdown, and the French Prime Minister's resignation increased market uncertainty. The Fed Chairman hinted at a possible halt to balance - sheet contraction, and Fed officials warned of negative employment growth. The market expected a 90% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October and about 2 more rate cuts this year. The London silver 1 - month implied lease rate soared, and the silver spot was in short supply. The CRB commodity index rebounded under pressure, and the RMB appreciation was negative for domestic prices [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2][3]. - **Data Summary**: International gold prices (Comex gold and London gold) increased, with daily increases of 0.72% - 0.74% and weekly increases of 3.70% - 3.79%. Domestic gold prices (Shanghai Gold main contract and Gold T + D) also rose significantly, with daily increases of 1.97% - 2.27% and weekly increases of 9.83% - 10.00%. Positions and inventories showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [3]. Silver - **Core Logic**: The price of silver is anchored by the price of gold. The net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare Silver ETF slightly increased, and the recent explicit inventory of silver slightly decreased [5]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Data Summary**: International silver prices (Comex silver and London silver) increased, with daily increases of 0.95% - 6.86% and weekly increases of 4.91% - 5.51%. Domestic silver prices (Shanghai Silver main contract and Silver T + D) also rose, with daily increases of 3.74% - 3.75% and weekly increases of 9.60% - 10.17%. Positions generally increased, and inventories decreased [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The federal funds target rate upper limit, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets increased by 42.68 billion US dollars (0.00%). M2 increased by 0.23% year - on - year. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield decreased by 2.52%. The US dollar index decreased by 0.21% daily and increased by 0.19% weekly [8]. - **Other Key Indicators**: The US Treasury yield spreads, US - EU and US - China yield spreads, and inflation - related indicators showed different trends. US economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and other aspects also had various changes [10]. - **Other Data**: Central bank gold reserves in some countries changed slightly. The proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves increased in some cases. The geopolitical risk index increased, the VIX index decreased, the CRB commodity index increased, and the offshore RMB slightly decreased [12].

Core Insights - Gold prices are moving away from historical highs, but buyers maintain control amid a weakening dollar [1] - Renewed trade tensions between the US and China, along with bets on two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, offset the IMF's optimistic outlook on global economic growth [1] Market Dynamics - Gold is experiencing a "buy on dips" trading strategy, with buyers remaining optimistic despite global stock market trends [3] - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to President Trump's consideration of terminating trade relations with China, which has escalated trade tensions [3] - The US and China have begun imposing reciprocal port fees, further intensifying the trade war backdrop [3] Federal Reserve and Currency Impact - Ongoing concerns about US-China trade, coupled with expectations of two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, negatively impact the dollar, benefiting non-yielding precious metals [4] - Market expectations for rate cuts in October and December exceed 90%, despite cautious remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell [4] - The People's Bank of China set the USD/CNY midpoint at 7.0995, stronger than the previous day's rate, surprising the market [5] Technical Analysis - The daily chart shows gold challenging the upper boundary of an ascending channel, with the RSI nearing extreme overbought levels at approximately 84 [10] - Buyers are attempting to break through the upper resistance of the channel, currently at $4,184, to sustain a record rise above the $4,200 mark [11][12] - The next psychological target for bullish investors is $4,250, while a rejection at resistance could lead to a drop to the $4,100 level [13][14] - Key support is located at the lower boundary of the ascending channel, around $4,036, with a potential breakdown confirming a pattern failure and further correction to the $3,950 psychological level [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ambassador to the U.S., Xie Feng, emphasizes the need for the U.S. to return to rationality and avoid escalating tensions in economic and trade relations, highlighting that trade wars yield no winners [1]. Group 1: U.S.-China Relations - Recent tensions have arisen in U.S.-China relations, which had previously stabilized under the strategic guidance of the two nations' leaders [1]. - Xie Feng calls for mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation as the guiding principles for U.S.-China relations [1]. - The ambassador warns that trade wars will only lead to mutual losses and asserts that China will not passively accept damage to its rights or the multilateral trade system [1]. Group 2: Key Issues and Recommendations - Xie Feng urges the U.S. to engage in dialogue based on mutual respect and equal consultation to address concerns, rather than escalating tensions [1]. - The Taiwan issue is identified as the most disruptive factor in U.S.-China relations, with a call for the U.S. to stop distorting UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 and to refrain from sending incorrect signals to pro-independence forces in Taiwan [1]. - The ambassador encourages the U.S.-China Relations National Committee and various stakeholders to work together to promote stable and sustainable development in bilateral relations [2].

Core Viewpoint - The trade war and tariff conflict have no winners and do not serve the interests of either party [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Relations - The Chinese government maintains a consistent and clear stance on handling Sino-U.S. economic and trade issues [2]. - Both parties should negotiate to resolve relevant issues based on equality, respect, and mutual benefit [2].

Core Points - The Chinese Ambassador to the U.S., Xie Feng, emphasized the need for rationality from the U.S. side, urging an end to extreme pressure and advocating for dialogue to resolve mutual concerns, rather than escalating trade tensions [1] - Xie Feng stated that trade wars and tariff battles yield no winners, highlighting that both sides suffer and that mutual respect and cooperation are the only viable paths to resolve disputes [1] - The ambassador called for adherence to principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation, acknowledging the historical and cultural differences between China and the U.S. while stressing the importance of not allowing biases to dictate decisions [1] Industry and Company Insights - Xie Feng urged for collective efforts to enhance China-U.S. exchanges and cooperation, noting that the relationship requires both top-down strategic guidance and grassroots support [2] - The U.S.-China National Council has played a significant role over the past 60 years as a bridge for civil exchanges and cooperation, contributing to the improvement and development of China-U.S. relations [2] - The business community is identified as a stabilizing force in China-U.S. relations, promoting pragmatic cooperation and cultural exchanges, with many U.S. companies choosing to grow alongside China [2]

Core Points - The speech emphasizes the importance of stable and healthy U.S.-China relations, which are crucial for the well-being of both nations and the world [2][3][4] - The speaker highlights the negative impact of trade wars and tariffs, asserting that there are no winners in such conflicts and calling for dialogue and mutual respect to resolve differences [2][3] - The need for cooperation in various global challenges is stressed, with an invitation for the U.S. to participate in China's initiatives for global development and governance [3][5] Group 1 - The U.S.-China relationship is described as the most significant bilateral relationship today, affecting not only the two countries but also the global future [2] - Recent trade discussions have led to positive consensus, but U.S. actions, such as export controls and tariffs, threaten to escalate tensions [2][4] - The speaker urges the U.S. to return to rationality and stop extreme pressure tactics, advocating for dialogue based on mutual respect [2][3] Group 2 - The speech acknowledges historical and cultural differences between the U.S. and China but emphasizes the importance of respecting each other's core interests [4] - The Taiwan issue is identified as a critical point of contention that must be handled with care to maintain the political foundation of U.S.-China relations [4] - The speaker calls for a collaborative approach to address global challenges, highlighting the potential for cooperation in areas like drug trafficking, climate change, and public health [3][5] Group 3 - The role of the business community in stabilizing U.S.-China relations is recognized, with examples of successful partnerships, such as Pfizer's long-term commitment to the Chinese market [5] - The upcoming Chinese Communist Party meeting is expected to outline the "15th Five-Year Plan," which will present significant opportunities for international collaboration [5] - The speaker encourages American friends to visit China and experience its realities, promoting people-to-people connections as a foundation for stronger ties [5][6]

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the need for the U.S. to return to rationality and stop extreme pressure, advocating for dialogue to resolve concerns based on mutual respect and equal consultation [1][2] - The speaker highlights that trade wars and tariff battles yield no winners, and both sides should learn from past experiences that such conflicts only lead to mutual harm [1] - The importance of maintaining a direction of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation is stressed, acknowledging the historical and cultural differences between China and the U.S. [1] Group 2 - The call for collective action to enhance U.S.-China exchanges and cooperation is made, emphasizing the need for both top-down strategic guidance and bottom-up support [2] - The role of the U.S.-China National Council as a bridge for civil exchanges over the past 60 years is recognized, highlighting its contributions to improving bilateral relations [2] - The business community is identified as a stabilizing force in U.S.-China relations, promoting practical cooperation and cultural exchanges [2]