Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with various commodities having different trends. Some commodities are expected to be volatile, while others are influenced by factors such as supply - demand, geopolitical events, and policy changes. For example, oil prices are expected to be short - term volatile and weak, and the stock market shows a preference for technology growth on the basis of dividend asset allocation. [1][47] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, international oil prices fell from high levels. After the cooling of the Israel - Iran conflict, oil prices are back to being dominated by macro and supply - demand factors. OPEC+ may increase production in August. The oil market is expected to be short - term volatile and weak. [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Ship refueling and deep - processing demand are low. High - sulfur fuel oil demand boost from summer power generation in the Middle East and North Africa is limited. FU is volatile and weak, while LU's cracking has rebounded from a low level. [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: After the geopolitical situation eases, the Middle East market has declined. Domestic chemical demand has increased, but supply pressure still exists, and the market is expected to be in a range - bound state. [23] - **Natural Gas**: No relevant content provided. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices have given back the war premium as the Israel - Iran conflict stopped. Market attention will shift to tariff negotiations and the Fed. [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Last Friday, copper prices were in a high - level shock. The market is concerned about the US trade negotiations and the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. Short - term, the upward trend of Shanghai copper may reach 81,000, while long - term, short - selling at high levels is recommended. [3] - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum was in a high - level shock on Friday night. There is a large market divergence. There are opportunities for short - selling at high levels after the sentiment stabilizes. [4] - **Zinc**: The zinc market is affected by the strike at a Peruvian smelter, but the global zinc supply is still expected to be in surplus. Wait for the opportunity to short - sell at high levels. [7] - **Lead**: Shanghai lead rose and then fell. The supply side provides support, and the rebound height depends on consumption. [8] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel rebounded strongly. The pressure on the ore end has increased. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see. [9] - **Tin**: Tin prices retraced last Friday. It is recommended to short - sell distant - month contracts at high levels. [10] - **Manganese Silicon**: Prices follow steel. In the short - term, it is temporarily bullish. [18] - **Silicon Iron**: Prices follow steel. Demand is okay, and it is temporarily bullish in the short - term. [19] - **Ferroalloys** - **Alumina**: Spot trading is scarce. The domestic production capacity is in an over - supply state, and it is recommended to short - sell on rebounds. [5] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The futures follow Shanghai aluminum. Consider a long - AD and short - AL strategy if the spread widens. [6] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price has rebounded, but high positions indicate risk accumulation. It is expected to be in a short - term range - bound state. [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price has increased with positions. It is expected to be in a range - bound state. [12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price has increased with reduced positions. It is expected to be in a low - level range - bound state. [13] - **Urea**: The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the market is in a range - bound adjustment. Export policies will be the key to the future trend. [24] - **Methanol**: The expected reduction in imports has not materialized. The market is expected to be in a short - term range - bound state. [25] - **Styrene**: The cost side lacks support, supply pressure has increased, and demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak. [26] - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The cost side lacks support, and the supply - demand situation is weak. The price is expected to be in a range - bound state. [27] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is relatively strong in the short - term but may be in a low - level range - bound state in the long - term. Caustic soda is expected to follow the cost fluctuation. [28] - **PX & PTA**: Prices rebounded last Friday night. The supply - demand pattern may become looser in the medium - term. [29] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price decline has slowed down. It is expected to be in a bottom - range - bound state. [30] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle Chip**: Short - fiber prices follow raw materials. Bottle chips may have a chance to repair the processing margin, but it should be treated with caution. [31] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The drought situation in the US soybean产区 has improved. The market is expected to be in a range - bound state for now. [35] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The market is in a range - bound state. Long - term, a long - position strategy at low levels is recommended for vegetable oils. [36] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed planting area in Canada is lower than expected, and the rapeseed market continues to have a bearish outlook. [37] - **Soybean No. 1**: The decline has slowed down. Wait for the US soybean planting area report. [38] - **Corn**: The futures market is expected to be in a range - bound state, affected by factors such as wheat policies and state - reserve auctions. [39] - **Hogs**: The short - term price has rebounded, but the long - term supply pressure is large. [40] - **Eggs**: The price is expected to be weak in the long - term. A short - position strategy is recommended. [41] - **Cotton**: US cotton is expected to be affected by the planting area report. Domestic cotton has a good inventory reduction, and long - positions should be held with caution. [42] - **Sugar**: US sugar is trending downward, and the domestic sugar market is expected to be in a range - bound state. [43] - **Apples**: The market is bearish on the new - season output, and a short - position strategy is recommended. [44] - **Wood**: The price is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see. [45] - **Pulp**: The price is in a low - level range - bound state, and it is recommended to wait and see. [46] Others - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to face pressure on the upside. [20] - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The A - share market shows a style preference for technology growth on the basis of dividend asset allocation. [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures are mostly volatile. The bond market may face increased volatility risk in the short - term. [48]

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently focused on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path and the potential for interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, with expectations for three rate cuts increasing due to easing tensions in trade and geopolitical conflicts [5]. Macroeconomic Summary - The U.S. core PCE price index for May recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, surpassing the expected 2.6%, marking the highest level since February 2025 [2]. - The U.S. first-quarter real GDP annualized rate declined by 0.5%, worse than the expected decline of 0.2% [2]. - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 236,000, with the previous value revised to 246,000 [2]. - The market is observing a divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts, with some officials open to cuts as early as July, while others suggest it may be premature [2]. Commodity Market Summary - The silver market is influenced by the performance of gold; if gold experiences a significant pullback, silver prices may also adjust, but if gold maintains a high-level fluctuation, silver could see upward momentum [4]. - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are easing, which has a limited negative impact on gold prices, as previous influences on gold were relatively minor [3]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in July with a probability of 79.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is at 20.7% [4]. Investment Outlook - The overall sentiment in the precious metals market remains one of cautious adjustment, with expectations of rate cuts providing some support for gold and silver prices [5]. - The potential for significant price movements in precious metals is limited in the short term, with both gold and silver expected to remain in a state of fluctuation [5].

6月30日国内黄金市场动态：品牌金店首饰金价经过周末的下跌，今日仍有下跌迹象。具体来看，今日 最高价金店均保持在989元/克的报价。周六福黄金下跌9元/克，报价969元/克，和上海中国黄金同为最 低价金店。今日品牌金店价差20元/克（989元/克-969元/克），价差稍稍缩小。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： 今日金价 单位 变动幅度 涨跌 老庙黄金价格 984 元/克 989 元/克 3 跌 六福黄金价格 989 元/克 0 平 周大福黄金价格 0 平 周六福黄金价格 969 元/克 9 跌 今日金店黄金价格一览（2025年6月30日） 金店报价 金至尊黄金价格 989 元/克 0 平 老凤祥黄金价格 987 元/克 0 平 潮宏基黄金价格 989 元/克 0 平 周生生黄金价格 985 元/克 1 涨 菜百黄金价格 978 元/克 0 平 上海中国黄金价格 0 平 周大生黄金价格 989 元/克 今日黄金价格整体持稳，铂金价格也出现了降温。以周六福黄金为例，今日黄金饰品价格下跌9元/克， 铂金饰品价格也是下跌27元/克，报价568元/克。若您还关注其他品牌铂金报价（如老凤祥、周大福 等），欢迎留言告知 ...

印尼已向美国提出联合投资印尼关键矿产"棕地项目"的提议，作为双方关税谈判的一部分。 ...

Market Overview - The overall market rebounded last week, with major indices mostly rising. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3424.23 points, up 1.91% for the week, while the ChiNext Index closed at 2124.34 points, up 5.69% [1] Sector Performance - In the CITIC industry sectors, comprehensive finance, computer, and comprehensive indices had the highest gains, while transportation, food and beverage, and oil and petrochemical indices experienced the largest declines [1] - The valuation levels and weekly performance of major A-share indices were as follows: ChiNext Index at 32.16 (up 5.69%), CSI 1000 at 38.57 (up 4.62%), and CSI 500 at 28.71 (up 3.98%) [2] Bond Investment Trends - As of the end of May, the bond investment balance of large Chinese banks reached approximately 49.54 trillion yuan, marking a growth of 2.65 trillion yuan this year [3] - Meanwhile, the bond investment balance of small and medium-sized Chinese banks rose to 46.41 trillion yuan, with a year-to-date increase of 3.6 trillion yuan [4] Gold Market Dynamics - Last Friday, gold prices saw a significant drop, with spot gold falling over 2% at one point and ultimately closing down 1.63%, dipping below $3300 per ounce [6] - Over the past week, spot gold has decreased by 2.8%, influenced by easing tensions in the Middle East and progress in tariff negotiations, which shifted some funds to the stock market [7] Hong Kong Market Changes - The Hong Kong market will implement a new share trading fee structure starting June 30, 2025, increasing the fee from 0.002% to 0.0042% of the transaction amount, while removing the minimum and maximum fee limits [8] Trade Relations - The U.S. has announced the cessation of all trade negotiations with Canada due to Canada's insistence on a digital services tax targeting U.S. tech companies [9][10] ETF Growth - The first batch of benchmark market-making credit bond ETFs has seen explosive growth, with three ETFs surpassing 20 billion yuan in scale, indicating strong market interest due to lower credit risk and higher tracking efficiency [11]

美国总统特朗普：（关于关税谈判截止日期）我认为我不需要延长，但可以延长。 ...

Macro Economy - The State Council meeting discussed the implementation of the national science and technology conference spirit to accelerate the construction of a technology powerhouse [2] - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need for large banks to support the real economy and maintain financial market stability through structural monetary policy tools [3] - From January to May, state-owned enterprises reported a 0.1% year-on-year decline in total operating revenue and a 2.8% decline in total profit [5] Global Market - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached all-time highs, with the S&P 500 closing at 6173.07 points, up 0.52% [6][7] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 432.43 points, marking a 1.0% increase [7] Financial Capital - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges proposed to adjust the price fluctuation limit for risk-warning stocks on the main board from 5% to 10% [11] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is intensifying accountability for financial fraud, including holding accomplices responsible [13] - The ChiNext board has officially adopted a third set of standards to support the listing of quality innovative companies that are not yet profitable [14] Industry News - The Chinese National Medical Products Administration approved the launch of the domestically developed GLP-1 weight loss drug, Masitide, for long-term weight control in adults [15] - Xiaomi announced that its new car model, YU7, achieved over 240,000 orders within 18 hours of its launch [20]

Group 1 - The latest gold futures closing price on June 27 was 766.40 CNY per gram, with a daily decline of 0.87% and a trading volume of 169,217 contracts [1] - The Shanghai gold spot price on June 27 was quoted at 765 CNY per gram, indicating a premium of 1.40 CNY per gram compared to the futures price [1] - The European Union leaders issued a statement regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, emphasizing increased pressure on Russia and potential new sanctions, although no immediate new sanctions were announced [1] Group 2 - The EU plans to provide 30.6 billion euros in financial aid to Ukraine by 2025, with 3.5 billion already disbursed through the "Ukraine Aid Instrument" and 7 billion from the interest on frozen Russian assets [1] - According to Guotai Junan Futures, the gold market is adjusting, with silver following a strong trend in the non-ferrous metals sector, as market risk appetite improves following the Israel-Hamas ceasefire [2] - The focus of the market is shifting towards tariff negotiations and the Federal Reserve, with recent U.S. jobless claims at 236,000, lower than expected, indicating resilience in employment [2]

金十数据6月27日讯，泰国财政部长披猜下周将访问美国进行关税谈判，争取在7月9日华盛顿设定的最 后期限之前达成贸易协议。披猜6月26日在社交媒体X发帖称，虽然他没有详细说明计划中的谈判细 节，但一些媒体报道的18%关税税率协议是"不真实的"。他表示，这一数字是泰国央行和经济学家在经 济情景中使用的"估计值"。美国总统特朗普4月2日宣布，将对泰国进口商品征收36%的税率。这一措施 已暂停执行以进行谈判，谈判将持续到7月初。 泰国财长将访美磋商关税 否认18%征税方案 ...

泰国财长表示，他下周将前往美国进行关税谈判。 ...