Core Insights - India's inflation rate has dropped below the central bank's target range, increasing market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to support the economy [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose by 1.54% year-on-year, slightly above economists' predictions of 1.50%, but significantly lower than the 2.07% increase in August [1] - This marks the slowest growth in eight years and the second instance this year where inflation has fallen below the RBI's target range of 2%-6% [1] Inflation Drivers - The slowdown in inflation is primarily driven by two factors: 1. Above-normal monsoon rains this year have boosted agricultural output, helping to lower food prices [1] 2. A consumption tax reform implemented by the Modi government on September 22 has reduced the prices of daily necessities [1] Economic Growth Context - Despite the weak inflation data providing more justification for a rate cut at the RBI's December meeting, analysts expect that U.S. tariffs on Indian goods will exert pressure on the country's annual economic growth [1] - India's economy expanded by 7.8% in the three months ending in June, marking the fastest growth in over a year [1] Tariff Impact - The increase in tariffs on Indian goods to 50% by the Trump administration, aimed at penalizing India for purchasing Russian oil, is the highest in Asia and diminishes India's price competitiveness against manufacturing rivals like Vietnam and Bangladesh [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuating market conditions influenced by Trump's tariff threats and subsequent easing of rhetoric, alongside better-than-expected import and export data, leading to a volatile stock market and bond yields [5]. Market Conditions - The funding environment is described as balanced and slightly loose, with a notable increase in long-term bond yields [3]. - The central bank conducted a 1,378 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net injection of the same amount [3]. - The overnight funding rates are stable, with DR001 around 1.31% and DR007 at approximately 1.45% [3]. Interest Rates and Bond Market - The 10-year Treasury yield experienced fluctuations, initially dropping by 3.2 basis points to 1.743% following Trump's tariff announcement, before rising to 1.7575% and settling around 1.75% [5]. - The bond market showed a slight upward trend in yields, with the 10-year rate reaching approximately 1.76% during the day [5]. Stock Market Performance - The stock market opened lower but quickly rebounded after reaching 3,800 points, supported by positive trade data [5]. - The market demonstrated resilience, with stocks recovering and nearing positive territory by the afternoon [5]. Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment appears cautious, with analysts closely monitoring Trump's statements and adjusting their strategies accordingly [6]. - There is a sense of urgency among non-bank financial institutions, as evidenced by a rush to buy long-term bonds despite recent losses [6].

Report Information - Report Title: Black Metal R & D Report [1][4] - Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Qi Chunyi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend after the holiday, with limited downward space. If the downstream demand in October recovers beyond expectations, the steel price may rise further. The "14th Five - Year Plan" content will also affect the market fluctuations. [7] - Due to low production, rebar production increased before the holiday, while hot - rolled coil production continued to decrease, and the export performance remained strong, so the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is expected to expand. [7] Summary by Directory Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3190 yuan (- 10), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3140 yuan (- 20), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3320 yuan (- 20), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3250 yuan (- 20). [6] Market Judgement - **Market Situation**: The black metal sector showed differentiation. Steel maintained a weak oscillating trend, while iron ore prices rose. Steel spot trading was generally weak, with speculative trading at low prices being acceptable during the market rebound, but rigid demand was average. Some steel mills reduced production of hot - rolled and rebar, and there was significant inventory accumulation during the holiday, with the inventory increase exceeding previous years and apparent demand dropping rapidly. [7] - **Price Forecast**: The steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend, with limited downward space. Short - term steel prices may be under pressure due to news, but the impact of this tariff may be weaker than the "reciprocal tariff" in April. If the downstream demand in October recovers beyond expectations, the steel price may rise further. [7] - **Trading Strategies** - **Single - side**: Maintain a bottom - oscillating trend, and it is recommended to buy on dips. [8] - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to continue holding the 1 - 5 positive spread and go long on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar. [8] - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see. [8] - **Important Information** - In October 2025, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 29.24 million units, a 9.9% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year. [8][10] - In September 2025, China exported 10.465 million tons of steel, a 10.0% month - on - month increase; from January to September, the cumulative steel export was 87.955 million tons, a 9.2% year - on - year increase. In September, China imported 548,000 tons of steel, a 9.6% month - on - month increase; from January to September, the cumulative steel import was 4.532 million tons, a 12.6% year - on - year decrease. [10] Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to rebar and hot - rolled coil prices, basis, spreads, and profits, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind. [14][16][18]

#报告 高盛：如何看待特朗普对中国的最新关税威胁？None (@None):None ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the resurgence of tariffs, particularly from the Trump administration, which may lead to increased volatility in the Hong Kong stock market in the short term, although a long-term upward trend remains intact [1][2] - The report emphasizes that the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session and the 15th Five-Year Plan will be crucial for market sentiment, with potential for stronger recovery if policies exceed expectations [1] - In the medium to long term, the report maintains a positive outlook for the Hong Kong stock market, driven by global monetary easing, the unstoppable trend of the AI industry, and anticipated improvements in economic fundamentals and corporate earnings in Q1 of the following year [1][6] Market Performance - Over the past two weeks, developed markets have declined by 0.9%, while emerging markets have risen by 3.0% [5] - The Hang Seng Index saw a slight increase of 0.6%, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 1.0% [5][11] - The report notes that the materials sector led the gains, with significant inflows into non-essential consumer goods and information technology, while the telecommunications sector experienced outflows [5] Economic Data - Mixed macroeconomic data is presented, with positive indicators such as a 60,000 increase in non-farm payrolls and an ISM manufacturing index of 49.1, which is better than expected [3][6] - However, there are concerns with a 32,000 decrease in ADP employment and a services PMI drop to 50, indicating potential economic headwinds [3][6] Trade Relations - The report discusses the escalation of US-China trade tensions, with Trump threatening to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, which could further complicate market dynamics [2] - It also mentions China's retaliatory measures, including export controls on rare earth materials, which could impact various sectors [2] Investment Trends - The report indicates a shift in investor sentiment towards safe-haven sectors due to tariff concerns and market volatility, with a notable increase in gold ETF holdings [6][35] - The report highlights that technology, materials, and healthcare sectors are seeing the most inflows, while utilities and financials are experiencing outflows [7][39] Upcoming Events - Key upcoming data releases include the US CPI on October 15 and unemployment claims on October 16, which will be critical for assessing economic conditions [8][42] - Significant corporate earnings reports are also expected, including those from major companies like Haikang Weishi and Cambricon [8]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's research report indicates that the impact of US-China trade negotiations on Pop Mart is expected to be low due to the current progress in negotiations [1] Group 1: Trade Impact - Approximately 75% to 80% of toy imports to the US come from China, and even if higher tariffs are imposed on these toys, it is unlikely to alter the company's relative advantage [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendation - The firm has set a target price of HKD 382 for the company and maintains an "Overweight" rating, designating it as a preferred stock in the industry [1]

Group 1 - The core issue is the impact of Trump's fluctuating tariff policies on the U.S. economy, particularly the agricultural and financial sectors [1][14][21] - Trump's threat to impose a 100% tariff on China has led to significant market instability and confusion regarding U.S.-China relations [1][16] - The agricultural sector, particularly soybean farmers, has been severely affected as China has shifted its imports to countries like Brazil and Argentina, resulting in a complete absence of Chinese orders in 2022 for the first time since 1998 [3][5] Group 2 - The financial markets have reacted negatively to the tariff threats, with major indices experiencing significant drops, including a 1.9% decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and a total market loss of $1.65 trillion [11][13] - The semiconductor industry is particularly vulnerable due to its reliance on Chinese rare earth materials, which could lead to production halts and increased chip prices if China retaliates [7][9] - The overall sentiment among U.S. farmers has shifted from support for Trump to discontent, as government subsidies have proven insufficient to cover losses from lost orders [5][18] Group 3 - The current situation presents a dilemma for the U.S. government: continuing to impose tariffs risks further agricultural unrest and financial market instability, while not imposing tariffs could be seen as a sign of weakness [16][18] - The upcoming APEC summit poses a challenge for Trump, who initially aimed to leverage tariffs for political gain but now faces domestic crises that undermine his negotiating position [16][21] - The article suggests that a more cooperative approach with China, rather than protectionist measures, would be beneficial for the U.S. economy [19][21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The prices of iron ore, gold,菜粕, palm oil,生猪,焦煤,螺纹钢,白银,中长期国债, glass, methanol, PVC,原油,沥青, and rubber are expected to show different trends, with suggestions for corresponding trading strategies provided [1][3][4]. Summary by Variety Iron Ore - Mysteel statistics show that the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports increased by 904,000 tons week-on-week, and the daily port clearance volume decreased by 98,700 tons. The inventory at 45 ports increased by 242,200 tons, and the daily port clearance volume decreased by 94,000 tons. The number of ships in port increased by 5. - Supply is stable, and demand is still supported. Some steel mills have restocking plans after the holiday. However, Sino-US trade relations may impact prices. Short-term prices are expected to fluctuate [1]. Gold - US Vice President Vance released some easing signals regarding Trump's latest tariff threat. - The tariff news last Friday led to a sharp drop in overseas stock markets and an upgrade in market risk aversion. Gold has limited upward momentum at present. It is recommended to wait and see or try short positions with strict stop-loss [1]. 菜粕 - In the 41st week of 2025, the菜籽 crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 14,000 tons, with an operating rate of 3.73%. The estimated volume for next week is the same. - As the temperature drops, the rigid demand for 菜粕 is expected to decline. Short-term prices are expected to fluctuate. Future policy changes, upstream operations, and other factors should be monitored [3]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian government expects an increase in crude palm oil production in 2026 due to factors such as increased fresh fruit bunch production and improved oil extraction rates. - International trade situations are variable, and the future trends of US soybeans and soybean oil are unclear. Palm oil has strong support, and opportunities to go long on dips should be noted [3]. 生猪 - As of October 10, the average slaughter weight of 生猪 increased by 0.01 kg to 123.48 kg, the weekly slaughter operating rate increased by 0.19% to 31.14%, and the prices of piglets and the profits of different breeding methods decreased. - The supply pressure on the breeding side remains high, and the demand increase is limited. Prices are expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 焦煤 - The capacity utilization rate of independent coke enterprises increased by 0.05% to 75.18%, and other relevant data also changed. - Supply decreased during the holiday, and demand slowed down. Spot coal prices were weakly stable. After the holiday, production will recover, but the upside will be limited. Prices are expected to fluctuate [5]. 螺纹钢 - The blast furnace operating rate, ironmaking capacity utilization rate, and other indicators of 247 steel mills decreased slightly. - Policy signals are positive, but market demand during the National Day holiday was poor, and inventory accumulated rapidly. Short-term prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust [6][7]. 白银 - The preliminary value of the US consumer confidence index in October decreased slightly, and the expected inflation rate was slightly lower. - The US economy is still resilient, and risk aversion has increased. Silver has limited upward momentum. It is recommended to wait and see or try short positions with strict stop-loss [7]. 中长期国债 - China's rare earth export control is not a ban, and the impact is limited. The US's tariff increase plan has been opposed by China. - Tariffs may cause market fluctuations, and risk aversion supports the bond market. In the fourth quarter, the bond market may be more bullish, but trading is more difficult. A slightly bullish and oscillatory mindset should be adopted [8]. Glass - The average price of float glass increased, the operating rate remained flat, inventory increased, and the average order days of deep-processing enterprises increased. - The profits and daily melting volume of float glass enterprises are stable, but downstream demand is still weak. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu increased, the domestic production capacity utilization rate increased, and inventory and other data also changed. - Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and downstream demand has recovered. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [10]. PVC - The price of PVC in East China remained flat, the production capacity utilization rate increased, inventory increased, and the operating rate of domestic PVC pipe sample enterprises increased. - PVC supply is at a high level, and demand is still weak. The 01 contract is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [11][12]. 原油 - Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all Chinese goods, and the US is involved in Middle East peace negotiations. - The signing of the ceasefire agreement in the Middle East reduces geopolitical risk premiums, and OPEC+ is gradually exiting production cuts. Demand is also under pressure. It is advisable to trade short at high levels [13]. 沥青 - As of October 9, the weekly production of domestic 沥青 decreased by 6.8% week-on-week but increased by 24.9% year-on-year. Factory and social inventories changed differently. - In the fourth quarter, 沥青 supply and demand will decline seasonally, and the decline in demand is more negative for the spot market. Prices are expected to continue to fall [14]. Rubber - The prices of raw materials in Thailand and Hainan are provided, and the export volume of natural rubber in Malaysia in August decreased year-on-year but increased month-on-month. China's heavy truck sales in September increased significantly. - The rubber production season in Southeast Asia is from September to October, and supply is expected to be loose. Demand growth is limited. Although the supply-demand drive is weak, rubber is supported by low inventory and production in the medium term. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [15].

美国副总统万斯在福克斯新闻节目中表示，特朗普愿意在关税问题上与中国进行理性的谈判。“这将是一场微妙的较量，很大程度上取决于中国如何回应，”“如果他们以极具攻击性的方式回应，我向你保证，美国总统的牌比中国多得多。然而，如果他们愿意理性一点，那么美国也会如此。” https://t.co/klcYAXe9NP ...

受特朗普关税消息影响，上周五港A美集体下挫。港股三大指数再度大幅低开，恒指跌2.5%，国指跌 2.39%，恒生科技指数跌2.43%。盘面上，大型科技股集体低开，其中，小米跌4.5%，阿里巴巴跌近 4%，腾讯、美团、快手、京东均跌超3%，百度跌2.3%，惟网易涨超3%；生物医药股、苹果概念股、 内险股、光伏股、锂电池股、中资券商股、内房股、钢铁股、水务股、汽车股等纷纷下跌，其中，高伟 电子跌超10%，君实生物跌超9%，蓝思科技跌超7%，中国财险跌6%，优必选、信义光能、宁德时代跌 超5%。另一方面，早盘现货黄金一度冲上4060美元/盎司再创历史新高，黄金股逆势走强，紫金黄金国 际涨超4%，山东黄金、赤峰黄金涨超3%，第三季经调整溢利4.44亿按年增4%，思摩尔逆势高开4.3%。 (格隆汇) ...