Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen's economy showed steady growth in the first half of 2025, with a GDP of 18,322.26 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.1% at constant prices [2][12]. Group 1: Industrial Production - The industrial added value of large-scale enterprises in Shenzhen increased by 4.3% year-on-year, with a slight acceleration of 0.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter [3]. - The manufacturing sector grew by 4.2%, while the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry saw an increase of 11.8% [3]. - High-tech product output experienced rapid growth, with civil drones, industrial robots, and 3D printing equipment increasing by 59.0%, 38.0%, and 35.8% respectively [3]. Group 2: Service Industry - The added value of the service industry reached 11,806.37 billion yuan, growing by 6.1% year-on-year, with a 0.1 percentage point increase from the first quarter [4]. - Key sectors such as finance, transportation, and information technology services reported growth rates of 10.9%, 9.0%, and 8.1% respectively [4][5]. Group 3: Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in Shenzhen decreased by 10.9% year-on-year, with real estate development investment dropping by 15.1% [6]. - However, infrastructure investment grew by 7.7%, and industrial technological transformation investment surged by 47.1% [6]. Group 4: Market Sales - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4,948.68 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5%, marking a 0.4 percentage point acceleration from the first quarter [7]. - Significant growth was observed in the sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment, which increased by 55.7%, and cultural office supplies, which rose by 32.9% [7][19]. Group 5: Trade - The total import and export volume was 21,675.45 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.1%, but the decline was narrower by 1.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter [8]. - Exports amounted to 13,086.81 billion yuan, down by 7.0%, while imports increased by 9.5% to 8,588.64 billion yuan [8]. Group 6: Financial Sector - By the end of June, the balance of deposits in financial institutions (including foreign capital) reached 141,600.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [9]. - The balance of loans in financial institutions (including foreign capital) was 98,469.91 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [9].

南方财经记者 陈思琦 深圳报道 市场销售增长加快。上半年，深圳社会消费品零售总额4948.68亿元，同比增长3.5%，增速比一季度加 快0.4个百分点。分消费类型看，商品零售增长3.6%；餐饮收入增长1.7%。基本生活类商品增势较好， 限额以上单位日用品类、粮油食品类零售额分别增长10.7%、9.1%。 值得一提的是，消费品以旧换新政策继续显效，限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材类、文化办公用品 类、通讯器材类零售额分别增长55.7%、32.9%、6.0%。网上零售持续增长，限额以上单位通过互联网 实现的商品零售额增长19.4%。 7月30日，深圳市统计局发布2025年上半年深圳经济运行情况。 根据广东省地区生产总值统一核算结果，2025年上半年，深圳市地区生产总值18322.26亿元，按不变价 格计算，同比增长5.1%。其中，第一产业增加值10.33亿元，增长2.8%；第二产业增加值6505.56亿元， 增长3.3%；第三产业增加值11806.37亿元，增长6.1%。 工业生产稳步增长。上半年，深圳市规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.3%，增速比一季度加快0.1个百分 点。分门类看，采矿业增加值同比增长0.5%，制 ...

截至7月28日，31省份（不含港、澳、台）公布了2025年上半年经济运行情况。经济大省在成功挑起经 济增长大梁的同时，个别省份的经济数据也出现了波动。 前八大经济省份中，除广东外，其余七个省份上半年GDP增速均超过全国平均增速（5.3%），且均在 5.6%及以上。在31省份中，上半年广东GDP增速为4.2%，与海南并列倒数第三。 具体来看，上半年有20个省份的GDP增速超过了全国平均增速。其中，西藏、甘肃、湖北的GDP增速 位居全国前三，且均在6%以上。 上半年，湖北GDP总量位于全国第七，增速达6.2%，较全国高出0.9个百分点，这一增速也超出了湖北 过去三年的全年GDP增速。 湖北统计局在解读上半年经济运行情况时称，上半年湖北交出了一份成色好、分量足的成绩单。这是在 二季度外部压力明显加大的背景下取得的成绩，得来不易，需要倍加珍惜。但也要看到，外部不确定不 稳定因素较多，内部结构性矛盾还没有根本缓解。 GDP总量位居全国第二、第三的江苏和山东，年初将GDP增速目标设定为5%以上。今年上半年江苏的 GDP增速达5.7%，山东达5.6%，彰显出经济大省的增长韧性。 整体而言，不少省份经济增长超出预期。2025 ...

Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, Shaanxi Province achieved a GDP of 1,682.801 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.5% at constant prices [1] - The primary industry added value was 78.227 billion yuan, with a growth of 2.9% [1] - The secondary industry added value was 680.707 billion yuan, growing by 6.4% [1] - The tertiary industry added value was 923.867 billion yuan, increasing by 5.1% [1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in the province grew by 5.6% year-on-year [1] - Investment in the primary industry increased by 16.1%, while the secondary industry saw a growth of 19.2% [1] - The tertiary industry experienced a decline of 1.2% in investment [1] - Industrial investment maintained rapid growth at 19.8%, with manufacturing investment rising by 26.3% and industrial technological transformation investment increasing by 22.4% [1] - Private investment showed enhanced vitality, growing by 13.8%, particularly in transportation, storage, and postal services, which saw a 37.2% increase [1] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector is stabilizing, with real estate development investment increasing by 0.9% year-on-year [1] - The sales area of newly built commercial housing grew by 3.5% year-on-year, accelerating by 2.8 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1]

Core Viewpoint - The economic performance of various provinces in China during the first half of 2025 shows significant disparities, with some provinces exceeding growth expectations while others, particularly in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, are experiencing declines in consumer spending and employment satisfaction [4][6][10]. Economic Growth Performance - Among the top eight economic provinces, all except Guangdong achieved GDP growth rates above the national average of 5.3%, with rates ranging from 5.6% to 6.2% [3][4][7]. - In total, 21 provinces reported GDP growth rates exceeding their initial annual targets, indicating a strong foundation for achieving these goals [4][6]. Consumer Spending Trends - The retail sales growth in Beijing and Shanghai was notably low, with Beijing experiencing a decline of 3.8% in retail sales, while Shanghai's growth was only 1.7%, placing them among the lowest in the country [13][24]. - Nationally, final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to economic growth in the first half of 2025, with 19 provinces exceeding the national average retail sales growth of 5% [10][11]. Employment and Consumer Confidence - Beijing's employment satisfaction index fell to a historical low of 75.2, reflecting a decline in consumer confidence, which has remained below the critical threshold of 100 for four consecutive quarters [17][19][23]. - The consumer confidence index in Beijing was reported at 95.3, indicating weak consumer sentiment primarily driven by employment expectations [17][18]. Fixed Asset Investment Trends - Several major provinces, including Guangdong and Jiangsu, reported negative growth in fixed asset investment, with Guangdong's investment declining by 9.7% and Jiangsu by 3.9% [27][29]. - The downturn in real estate development investment significantly impacted overall fixed asset investment, with Guangdong's real estate investment dropping by 16.3% [28][29]. Regional Economic Disparities - While some provinces like Hubei and Hebei showed strong economic performance, with Hubei's GDP growth at 6.2% and Hebei's real estate investment increasing by 2.0%, others struggled with negative growth [8][34]. - The overall economic landscape indicates a need for targeted policies to stimulate consumer confidence and investment, particularly in regions facing economic challenges [32][34].

Economic Overview - In the first half of 2025, the GDP of Zhongshan reached 197.465 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4% at constant prices [2] - The primary industry added value was 3.663 billion yuan, growing by 6.3% year-on-year; the secondary industry added value was 101.509 billion yuan, with a growth of 3.3%; the tertiary industry added value was 92.292 billion yuan, also growing by 3.3% [2] Agricultural Sector - The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery in Zhongshan was 7.651 billion yuan, increasing by 6.3% year-on-year [2] - Agricultural output value was 2.595 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.2%; fishery output value was 4.741 billion yuan, growing by 7.3% [2] Industrial Performance - The added value of large-scale industries in Zhongshan grew by 4.4% year-on-year [3] - Manufacturing sector increased by 5.0%, while the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector saw a decline of 5.9% [3] - Advanced manufacturing added value grew by 8.3%, accounting for 52.6% of large-scale industries; high-tech manufacturing increased by 19.4%, making up 18.2% of large-scale industries [3] Service Sector - The added value of the service industry increased by 3.3% year-on-year [3] - Information transmission, software, and IT services grew by 8.8%; leasing and business services increased by 6.2%; accommodation and catering services rose by 4.6% [3] - From January to May, the revenue of large-scale service industries grew by 3.6% year-on-year [3] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment in Zhongshan decreased by 22.2% year-on-year [4] - Industrial investment fell by 10.1%, accounting for 49.1% of total fixed asset investment [4] - The total retail sales of consumer goods remained stable at 81.6 billion yuan, unchanged from the previous year [4] - Online retail through public networks grew by 5.7% year-on-year [4] Price Levels and Income - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Zhongshan remained stable, unchanged from the previous year [5] - The per capita disposable income of residents was 33,570 yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5% [5] - Urban residents had a per capita disposable income of 34,697 yuan, growing by 2.2%, while rural residents had 25,485 yuan, increasing by 4.3% [5]

Economic Performance Overview - As of July 28, 2025, 31 provinces (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) reported their economic performance for the first half of the year, with significant growth in major economic provinces, although some provinces experienced fluctuations in their economic data [1] - Among the top eight economic provinces, all except Guangdong achieved GDP growth rates exceeding the national average of 5.3%, with growth rates of 5.6% and above [1][2] - Guangdong's GDP growth rate was 4.2%, ranking it among the bottom three provinces [1] Provincial GDP Growth - In the first half of 2025, 21 provinces exceeded their annual GDP growth targets set at the beginning of the year, indicating a solid foundation for achieving their full-year goals [1] - Notably, Tibet, Gansu, and Hubei had the highest GDP growth rates, all above 6% [2] - Hubei's GDP growth rate reached 6.2%, surpassing the national average by 0.9 percentage points [2] Consumption Trends - Nationally, final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to economic growth in the first half of 2025, with 19 provinces reporting retail sales growth above the national average of 5% [2] - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted consumption in several provinces, with retail sales of wearable smart devices and related products in Henan growing over 85% [3] Retail Sales Performance - Beijing and Tianjin reported negative growth in retail sales, with Beijing's retail sales declining by 3.8% in the first half of 2025, primarily due to significant drops in automotive and communication equipment sales [4][5] - Shanghai's retail sales growth was 1.7%, ranking it among the lowest in the country [4] Fixed Asset Investment - Despite strong economic growth, several provinces, including Guangdong and Jiangsu, experienced declines in fixed asset investment, with Guangdong's investment dropping by 9.7% [9][10] - The decline in real estate development investment was a major factor affecting fixed asset investment growth in these provinces [10] Consumer Confidence - Consumer confidence in Beijing remained low, with the consumer confidence index below 100 for four consecutive quarters, indicating weak consumer sentiment [6][8] - The employment satisfaction index in Beijing hit a historical low of 75.2 in the second quarter of 2025, reflecting concerns over job security and income [5][6] Investment Opportunities - Some provinces, such as Beijing, reported strong fixed asset investment growth of 14.1%, driven by significant increases in equipment purchase investments [12] - Hebei's real estate development investment grew by 2.0%, supported by ongoing urban development projects [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Stock Index Strategy - A-share broad-based indices had positive weekly gains, with the Science and Technology Innovation 50 having the largest cumulative increase of 4.63% and the CSI 500 rising over 3%. The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, and the US June durable goods orders had a sharp decline. China's June industrial enterprise profits showed a narrowing decline, and the CSRC aimed to consolidate the market. Considering the market sentiment cooling and high technical indicators, the stock index's slow bull trend remains unchanged, but there may be a near-term correction, so a defensive wait-and-see approach is advisable [12]. 2.2 Treasury Bond Strategy - In the bond market, funds are flowing out, and with macro events concentrated at the end of July and early August, the bond market may experience an adjustment in a volatile pattern. Whether to participate on the left side or wait for the release of position pressure depends on the investor's position, duration, and tolerance. It is recommended to focus on taking profits [13]. 2.3 PMI - In June, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7%, better than expected, with both supply and demand improving. However, there were structural differences, such as small enterprises' contraction intensifying and the high-tech manufacturing industry remaining flat. Only 7 out of 15 sub - industries had better sentiment than in May [20]. 2.4 Inflation - In May 2025, the CPI had a slight year - on - year decline, and the PPI also decreased year - on - year. The current price situation shows "food differentiation and services stronger than goods," and the core inflation momentum is still insufficient. The decline in PPI is affected by international and domestic factors, but there are also positive changes in some areas [29][32]. 2.5 Industrial Enterprise Profitability - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of profits of industrial enterprises above designated size declined, mainly due to the decline in volume, price, and profit margin, with the profit margin having the most significant impact. Enterprises may adopt a strategy of reducing prices to clear inventory [35]. 2.6 Fiscal Situation - From January to May, the national general public budget revenue decreased slightly year - on - year, while the expenditure increased. The tax revenue recovery margin slowed down, and the real - estate - related tax drag increased. The fiscal expenditure rhythm slowed down marginally, and the government fund revenue decline widened while the expenditure slowed down [38][41]. 2.7 Industrial Added Value - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value declined, while the service industry added value increased. The production - sales imbalance persists, and export - related production is weak. The GDP growth rate in the second quarter is expected to exceed 5% [44]. 2.8 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to May, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment declined. Investment in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate all decreased. Although the real - estate physical volume was not weak this month, the real - estate investment was still under pressure in terms of funds [47]. 2.9 Social Retail Sales - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales increased, mainly driven by the early start of the 618 promotion and the strong performance of the May Day holiday in driving offline consumption [50]. 2.10 Social Financing - In May, the new social financing was 2.3 trillion yuan, with government bonds being the main support. Although the social financing growth rate is expected to rise in the second and third quarters, there is still pressure for it to rise and then fall in the second half of the year [53]. 2.11 Import and Export - In May, China's exports and imports continued to grow, with exports performing well. The central region led the national foreign trade growth. Due to the Sino - US trade relationship and the leading growth rate of processing trade, exports are expected to maintain resilient growth in June [59]. 2.12 US Non - Farm Payrolls - In May 2025, the US labor market showed resilience, with more new jobs than expected. However, there were internal structural differences. The service industry had employment growth, while the commodity production sector was weak. The wage growth exceeded expectations, strengthening inflation concerns and giving the Fed more reason to stay on the sidelines [62][65]. 2.13 US CPI - In May, the US CPI and core CPI increased year - on - year as expected. The inflation pressure on core commodities and services was controllable. The Fed maintained the interest rate target range and emphasized high uncertainty, so it tended to stay on the sidelines [68]. 2.14 US PMI - In June, the US Markit manufacturing PMI was stable at 52, and the service industry PMI was slightly lower. The manufacturing growth was mainly driven by inventory, and the inflation pressure increased significantly. The current US economy shows a "weak expansion + high inflation" characteristic, and the growth momentum may further weaken [71]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog 3.1 Financial Futures Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Stock Index Strategy - **Strategy Outlook**: Adopt a defensive wait - and - see approach [11]. - **Trend Review**: A - share broad - based indices had positive weekly gains [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The RSI indicator shows a potential correction risk for the market index [12]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Strategy - **Strategy Outlook**: Focus on taking profits [13]. - **Trend Review**: The bond market was volatile, and the treasury bond futures showed a downward trend [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract may operate weakly in a volatile manner [13]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking 3.2.1 PMI - In June, the manufacturing PMI rose, with both supply and demand improving. However, there were structural differences among different enterprise sizes, industries, and sub - industries [20]. - The price and inventory situation also showed different characteristics at the industry level, with some industries replenishing inventory and others reducing inventory through price cuts [23]. - The non - manufacturing PMI rose, mainly due to the increase in the construction industry PMI, while the service industry PMI declined [26]. 3.2.2 Inflation - In May 2025, the CPI had a slight year - on - year decline, with food price differentiation and service prices being more resilient. The PPI decreased year - on - year, mainly affected by international and domestic factors, but there were positive changes in some areas [29][32]. 3.2.3 Profitability of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of profits declined, mainly due to the decline in volume, price, and profit margin. Enterprises may be adopting a strategy of reducing prices to clear inventory [35]. 3.2.4 Fiscal - From January to May, the national general public budget revenue decreased slightly year - on - year, and the expenditure increased. The tax revenue recovery margin slowed down, and the real - estate - related tax drag increased. The fiscal expenditure rhythm slowed down marginally, and the government fund revenue decline widened while the expenditure slowed down [38][41]. 3.2.5 Industrial Added Value - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value declined, while the service industry added value increased. The production - sales imbalance persisted, and export - related production was weak [44]. 3.2.6 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to May, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment declined. Investment in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate all decreased. Although the real - estate physical volume was not weak this month, the real - estate investment was still under pressure in terms of funds [47]. 3.2.7 Social Retail Sales - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales increased, mainly driven by the early start of the 618 promotion and the strong performance of the May Day holiday in driving offline consumption [50]. 3.2.8 Social Financing - In May, the new social financing was 2.3 trillion yuan, with government bonds being the main support. The social financing growth rate is expected to rise in the second and third quarters but may face pressure to rise and then fall in the second half of the year [53]. 3.2.9 Import and Export - In May, China's exports and imports continued to grow, with exports performing well. The central region led the national foreign trade growth. Exports are expected to maintain resilient growth in June [59]. 3.2.10 US Non - Farm Payrolls - In May 2025, the US labor market showed resilience, with more new jobs than expected. There were internal structural differences, and wage growth exceeded expectations, strengthening inflation concerns [62][65]. 3.2.11 US CPI - In May, the US CPI and core CPI increased year - on - year as expected. The inflation pressure on core commodities and services was controllable, and the Fed tended to stay on the sidelines [68]. 3.2.12 US PMI - In June, the US Markit manufacturing PMI was stable at 52, and the service industry PMI was slightly lower. The manufacturing growth was mainly driven by inventory, and the inflation pressure increased significantly [71]. 3.2.13 Weekly Focus - There are important economic indicators and events to be released in the coming week, including the US GDP, FOMC interest rate decision, and China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs [73].

Group 1 - Hainan provincial state-owned enterprises completed fixed asset investment of 22.42 billion yuan in the first half of the year, achieving 52.45% of the annual investment plan, successfully meeting the "half-time, half-task" goal [1] - Key projects such as the expansion of Phoenix Airport and Boao Airport have progressed over 60%, while projects like the Hainan Police Academy and Hainan University dormitory have exceeded 80% of their annual investment plans [1] - The provincial state-owned assets supervision and administration commission has arranged 71 key projects with an annual investment of 30.506 billion yuan, completing 16.676 billion yuan in the first half, which is 54.99% of the annual plan [1] Group 2 - In the "Strengthening Marine" sector, Hainan enterprises are planning multiple projects in deep-sea aquaculture and marine new industries [2] - In the "Strengthening Sky" sector, projects related to commercial aerospace are being developed, including enhancements to the Hainan commercial space launch site [2] - In the "Strengthening Green" sector, key water resource projects have completed investments of 2.013 billion yuan, achieving 55.2% of the annual plan [2] - The provincial state-owned assets commission aims to improve project implementation rates and support enterprises in overcoming challenges to accelerate project construction [2]

Economic Overview - Chengdu's GDP for the first half of the year reached 12,108.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.8% at constant prices [1] - The primary industry added value was 186.7 billion yuan, growing by 2.7% [1] - The secondary industry added value was 3,267.4 billion yuan, growing by 5.3% [1] - The tertiary industry added value was 8,654.2 billion yuan, growing by 6.0% [1] Industrial Growth - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises in Chengdu increased by 7.8% year-on-year [2] - Among 37 major industries, 25 experienced positive growth, with non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, automotive manufacturing, and electronic equipment manufacturing showing significant increases of 41.7%, 23.6%, and 17.3% respectively [2] - High-tech manufacturing added value grew by 12.1% [2] - Key industrial products saw substantial production increases, including new energy vehicles (352.2%), smartwatches (119.2%), and lithium-ion batteries (45.8%) [2] Service Sector Performance - The service sector's added value grew by 6.0% year-on-year [2] - Notable growth was seen in leasing and business services (10.7%), information transmission and software services (10.7%), and transportation and storage (7.4%) [2] - By the end of June, financial institutions reported a 9.8% increase in deposits and a 10.4% increase in loans [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Chengdu grew by 6.0% year-on-year [3] - Investment in the primary industry increased by 15.3%, while the secondary industry saw a 40.7% increase, with industrial investment specifically rising by 41.3% [3] - The tertiary industry investment declined by 0.8%, with real estate development investment down by 2.8% [3] - High-tech industry investment surged by 37.4%, with high-tech manufacturing investment growing by 59.1% [3] Consumer Market Insights - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 5,622.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.1% [3] - Urban retail sales amounted to 4,928.6 billion yuan (6.0% growth), while rural retail sales were 693.7 billion yuan (6.6% growth) [3] - Key consumer categories showed varied growth, with telecommunications equipment retail sales increasing by 64.5% and home appliances by 34.5% [3] - New energy vehicles saw a growth of 21.0% within the automotive category [3]