Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has announced an increase in tariffs on imports from 14 countries, with Japan being the first affected, leading to a stalemate in U.S.-Japan tariff negotiations [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Negotiations - Japan has been actively negotiating with the U.S. since April, but despite seven rounds of talks, no substantial progress has been made [2][3]. - The main reason for the deadlock is the significant gap in demands between Japan and the U.S., with Japan seeking the removal of "reciprocal tariffs" and linking them to discussions on auto tariffs and steel/aluminum tariffs [2][3]. - The U.S. has rejected Japan's requests and pressured Japan to increase imports of U.S. cars and rice while reducing the trade deficit [2][3]. Group 2: Negotiation Dynamics - The complexity of the U.S. negotiation team, which includes multiple representatives from different departments, has contributed to the slow progress of talks, making it difficult for Japan to identify a clear point of contact [3][4]. - Japan has maintained a firm stance on auto tariffs, which are crucial to its economy, and has not used them as bargaining chips in negotiations [4][5]. Group 3: Political Context - The upcoming Japanese Senate elections on July 20 are influencing the government's approach, as Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's administration faces low approval ratings and potential loss of seats [5][6]. - Public sentiment in Japan has shifted against the U.S., with a majority of citizens supporting a firm stance rather than rushing to reach an agreement [6][7]. Group 4: Future Implications - The outcome of the Senate elections will directly impact the future of U.S.-Japan tariff negotiations, with a potential acceleration of talks if the ruling coalition retains a majority [6][7]. - The final agreement is expected to reflect the unequal nature of the U.S.-Japan alliance, suggesting that the terms will not be equitable [7].

Group 1 - The EU is preparing to sign a temporary "framework" agreement with the US, setting the tariff rate at 10%, which is equal to the baseline tariff imposed on the UK [1] - The US has proposed a draft agreement that offers limited tariff exemptions only for specific sectors like aircraft and spirits, while key industries such as automotive and pharmaceuticals receive no exemptions [2] - The EU is expected to face challenges in negotiations, as it is unlikely to achieve the same tariff reductions as the UK, particularly in steel and automotive sectors [2][3] Group 2 - The EU's negotiation strategy has faced criticism from businesses and some European countries, with calls for a quicker agreement [3] - In contrast, the UK has successfully negotiated a trade agreement with the US, reducing tariffs on automotive imports and securing zero tariffs on steel and aluminum products [4] - The UK’s approach has been characterized as a straightforward business transaction, allowing for flexibility and understanding of US objectives [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core View - The short - term outlook for EUA is bullish, while the medium - term is expected to be volatile, with a price range of €63 - 76 [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - EUA auction price is 70.34 euros/ton, down 0.72%, and the bid - cover ratio is 1.46; EUA futures settlement price is 71.2 euros/ton, down 0.66%, with 1.76 ten - thousand lots traded, up 0.47 [2] - On July 7, 2025, EUA auction volume was 22,829 tons, auction price was 70.34 euros/ton, auction revenue was 324.55 million euros, and CBAM certificate price was 71.25 euros/ton [3] - From July 4 to July 7, 2025, EUA futures settlement price decreased from 71.67 to 71.20 euros/ton, down 0.66%; futures trading volume increased from 1.29 to 1.76 ten - thousand lots, up 0.47; futures open interest remained unchanged [4] - From July 4 to July 7, 2025, EUA spot settlement price decreased from 70.89 to 70.44 euros/ton, down 0.63%; spot trading volume increased from 2283 to 3352 lots; container shipping carbon cost increased from 11.97 to 12.04 dollars/TEU, and the proportion of freight increased from 0.57% to 0.57% [4] Strategy - The short - term strategy for EUA is bullish, and the medium - term is volatile, with a price range of €63 - 76 [2] Core Logic - Bullish factor: Trump signed an executive order to extend the suspension period of the "reciprocal tariff" from July 9 to August 1 [2] - Bearish factors: At the beginning of the week, the temperature in Central and Western Europe turned cooler, and the supply of wind and solar energy was sufficient, reducing the residual load; Sino - European trade frictions intensified [2]

据英国金融时报：与特朗普达成的协议将使欧盟面临比英国更高的关税，欧盟预计不能像英国钢铁、汽 车等受行业关税限制的产品那样，获得对美国市场的同等准入待遇。布鲁塞尔方面准备签署一项临 时"框架"协议，协议规定在谈判继续期间，美国的"对等"关税为10%。 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国总统特朗普决定将对等关税的实施时间推迟到8月1日，这一决定背后，又是财长贝森特发挥了关键 作用。 贝森特认为，与印度和欧盟等贸易伙伴的谈判正在取得进展，因此建议特朗普给予更多时间。 这已经是贝森特在此轮"关税战"中第二次"拯救"全球金融市场。 周三，特朗普还预告了一项根据另一法律授权实施的新一轮关税计划，计划对铜产品征收50%关税，对 药品征收最高达200%的关税，理由是"国家安全"。企业将有最多18个月的过渡期，以迁移相关药品供 应链。卢特尼克补充说，铜的相关公告将在周二发布，关于半导体和药品的新税率将在8月1日前公布。 仍有谈判空间，但并非每个国家都能达成协议 特朗普原希望"乘胜追击"，贝森特力挽狂澜 知情人士称，在发布延后谈判期限这一决定的前一个周末，特朗普在其位于新泽西州贝德明斯特的私人 高尔夫俱乐部内，通过电话和私下交谈与盟友进行磋商。他一度在"设定新的8月最后期限"与"直接寄出 不含日期、仅标示新关税税率的信件"之间权衡。 特朗普曾在公开场合表示，未来可能不再通过谈判达成协议以避免征税。但在听取了贝森特的意见后， 他改变了初衷——贝森特 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives mid - term outlooks for each energy and chemical product, including "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "oscillating strongly" [278]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overseas macro - sentiment is warm, and crude oil is stronger than chemicals. The extension of the "reciprocal tariff" suspension period by the US boosts the risk appetite of the commodity market, and the imbalance in crude oil inventory accumulation and the strength of diesel cracking spreads lead to the limited impact of OPEC+ production increase on oil prices [1]. - The domestic chemical industry continues to oscillate and is looking for a new direction. Most energy and chemical products are currently showing weak supply - demand trends, with relatively small inventory pressure, and the fluctuation of the cost - end crude oil becomes the dominant factor [2]. - It is advisable to adopt an oscillating mindset towards the energy and chemical industry and wait for new supply - demand drivers [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News - Houthi rebels attacked a Liberian - flagged cargo ship in the Red Sea, causing at least two crew members to die. - Russia's daily crude oil shipments dropped to 312 million barrels as of July 6, the lowest since February, a 3% decrease from the previous period. - Ecuador's state - owned oil company declared force majeure due to potential damage to two parallel oil pipelines caused by heavy rainfall, and oil production decreased from 46 million barrels on July 1 to 33 million barrels on July 2. - EIA predicts that US oil production in 2025 will be 13.37 million barrels per day, lower than the previous forecast, and raises the expected average price of Brent crude oil futures in 2025 to $68.89 per barrel [5]. 3.2 Variety Analysis Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: EIA's downward adjustment of production forecasts and Red Sea geopolitical events briefly boosted oil prices. - **Logic**: Macro and refined oil performances are good, but the upside space is limited. The reduction in Russia's seaborne exports, the increase in US crude oil inventories, and the decrease in refined oil inventories affect the market [4][6]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The downward pressure on asphalt futures prices is relatively large. - **Logic**: OPEC+ over - production, sufficient domestic asphalt raw material supply, and weak demand lead to an over - estimated absolute price of asphalt [8][10]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The downward pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices is relatively large. - **Logic**: OPEC+ over - production, the weakening of power generation demand, and the increase in import tariffs lead to an increase in supply and a decrease in demand [11]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices follow the oscillation of crude oil. - **Logic**: It follows crude oil, but faces shipping demand decline, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, with low valuation [12]. LPG - **Viewpoint**: The cost - end support weakens, the fundamental pattern of supply - demand remains loose, and the PG futures market may oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: The reduction of CP prices, the accumulation of US propane inventories, and weak domestic demand lead to a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [12][14]. PX - **Viewpoint**: The terminal start - up declines, and PX oscillates weakly. - **Logic**: OPEC+ is expected to maintain production increase, and the terminal market support is poor, with a downward trend in absolute prices [15]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: Terminal negative feedback causes PTA to oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: The expected weakening of the crude oil market, the increase in PTA spot circulation, and the possible reduction of downstream polyester factory production lead to a decline in the market [15]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Two sets of devices are planned to be put into production, and styrene oscillates weakly. - **Logic**: The supply - demand of styrene itself is expected to weaken, and port inventories accumulate, leading to a decline in spot prices [16]. Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: Overseas device restarts accelerate, and ethylene glycol continues to oscillate. - **Logic**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the 09 contract may continue to oscillate, while the 01 contract may face more pressure [18][19]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The basis is stable, sales are sluggish, and short - fiber continues to oscillate. - **Logic**: Short - fiber sales have been weak for two weeks, and the downstream demand may reach an inflection point [19][20]. Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: It follows the fluctuation of raw materials, and the processing fee remains low. - **Logic**: Bottle chips are in the maintenance cycle, and the processing fee has limited downward space [20][22]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The port price continues to decline, and methanol oscillates downward. - **Logic**: Supply contraction during the maintenance period, weak terminal demand in the off - season, and the return of Iranian device operation lead to price oscillation [24]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: Supply and demand are both weak, and exports support the market. Urea may oscillate in the short term. - **Logic**: Indian urea import tenders boost the market, but supply and demand are both weak, and exports support the price [25]. LLDPE - **Viewpoint**: The US delays the tariff time - point, and LLDPE oscillates. - **Logic**: Oil price oscillation, weak raw material support, high supply, and low downstream demand lead to oscillation [27]. PP - **Viewpoint**: Maintenance slightly increases, and PP oscillates in the short term. - **Logic**: Oil price oscillation, weak cost - end support, high supply, and low downstream demand lead to oscillation [28]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: Low valuation and weak supply - demand lead to PVC oscillating. - **Logic**: New capacity is expected to be put into production, demand is in the off - season, and exports are difficult to increase, but market sentiment warms up [31]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot rebound slows down, and caustic soda oscillates. - **Logic**: The increase in comprehensive cost provides support, while the procurement of large enterprises and the weakening of downstream demand limit the increase [32]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: Different varieties have different cross - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 1.14 with a change of - 0.01 [36]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, like asphalt's basis being 236 with a change of - 18 and 91740 warehouse receipts [37]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: There are cross - variety spread data and changes, such as the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread being - 254 with a change of 30 [39]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report lists the basis and spread monitoring of various chemicals such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data summaries are not provided in the text [40][52][63].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the Trump administration's decision to impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from 14 countries, including several Southeast Asian nations, highlighting the potential impact on trade relations and economic strategies in the region [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Details - The tariffs imposed on Southeast Asian countries include 25% for Malaysia, 32% for Indonesia, 36% for Thailand and Cambodia, and a maximum of 40% for Laos and Myanmar [3][4]. - Cambodia's tariff was reduced from 49% to 36%, while Laos and Myanmar still face high tariffs of 40% and 44% respectively [3][6]. Group 2: Trade Negotiations - Southeast Asian countries are expressing a willingness to negotiate, but the changes in tariff rates are minimal, with Malaysia's rate increasing from 24% to 25% [4]. - U.S. Secretary of State Rubio's visit to Malaysia is expected to address tariff issues, marking his first visit to an Asian country outside of traditional allies Japan and South Korea [4]. Group 3: Cambodia's Trade Agreement - Cambodia may become the second Southeast Asian country to reach a trade agreement with the U.S. after Vietnam, with a joint statement on "reciprocal tariffs" expected soon [6]. - In 2024, Cambodia's total exports are projected to reach $26.2 billion, with nearly 40% of its exports going to the U.S., making it the largest export destination for Cambodia [6]. Group 4: Other Southeast Asian Countries - Thailand is accelerating trade negotiations with the U.S., proposing a new trade plan to reduce the 36% tariff and aiming for a significant reduction in trade surplus with the U.S. over the next five to eight years [6]. - Indonesia's Economic Coordinating Minister is traveling to the U.S. to continue discussions on the tariff issue, emphasizing the government's commitment to active negotiations [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game in the market is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [1][2]. - The short - term market may mainly rebound. Risk - preferring investors are advised to try to go long on the 2510 contract below 1300 and try to go short on the EC2512 contract above 1650, setting stop - loss and take - profit levels. In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage strategies. For the long - term, it is advised to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further judgments [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Sentiment and Macro Factors - The threat of US tariffs on copper and pharmaceuticals led to a 17% overnight increase in New York copper, boosting market bullish sentiment [1]. - Trump's tariff policies, including the postponement of the "reciprocal tariff" implementation to August 1st and the announcement of tariff rates for 14 trading partners, have an impact on the market. The market has digested the negative information, and bullish sentiment is high [2][4]. Shipping Indexes - On July 7, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2258.04 points, up 6.3% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1557.77 points, down 3.8% [1]. - On July 4, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1285.2 points, down 7.92% from the previous period; the European route was 1442.5 points, down 0.03%; the US West route was 1176.6 points, down 24.27% [1]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price on July 4 was 1763.49 points, down 98.02 points from the previous period. The SCFI European route price was 2101 USD/TEU, up 3.50%; the US West route was 2089 USD/FEU, down 18.97% [1]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index on July 4 was 1342.99 points, down 1.9% from the previous period; the European route was 1694.30 points, up 3.3%; the US West route was 1084.28 points, down 10.5% [1]. Futures Market - On July 8, the main contract 2508 closed at 2006.2, with a 7.16% increase, a trading volume of 57,700 lots, and an open interest of 35,100 lots, an increase of 536 lots from the previous day [2]. - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 16%, the margin is adjusted to 26%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [3]. PMI and Investor Confidence Index - The eurozone's June manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4, the service PMI was 50 (a two - month high), and the composite PMI was 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 [1]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May [1]. - The US June Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52, the service PMI was 53.1, and the composite PMI was 52.8 [1].

期 货 研 究 2025 年 07 月 09 日 铝：区间震荡 氧化铝：短期偏强震荡 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | | | 20525 | 115 | -110 | 325 | -190 | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | | | 20540 | l | ー | ー | l | | LME铝3M收盘价 | | | 2577 | 14 | -25 | 127 | -74 | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | | | 109583 | -39087 | -25051 | -58740 | -62353 | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 电解铝 | | 254726 | -598 | -28373 | 4682 ...

莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 22050 | -0.18% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 2683 | -1.92% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 158517 | -1989 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 9067 | 4682 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 118874 | -7658 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 199852 | -2843 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | 90 | 0 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -22.05 | -0.41 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | 广东 0# 锌升贴水 | 20 | 0 | 进口提单溢价（美 | 135 | 0 | | （元/吨） | | | 元/ ...