Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian presidential advisor Amorim stated that imposing tariffs on Brazil by the United States would be self-harming, as Brazil has a trade deficit with the U.S. [1] Group 1 - The U.S. has a trade deficit with Brazil, indicating that Brazil exports less to the U.S. than it imports [1] - Amorim's comments suggest that tariffs could negatively impact U.S. interests rather than benefiting them [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the United States and various countries, particularly focusing on India's decision to impose retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. despite ongoing negotiations [2][4][11]. Group 1: U.S. Trade Policy and Global Reactions - The so-called "90-day tariff grace period" is nearing its end, with only Vietnam and the UK reaching agreements with the U.S. [2] - The U.S. has a significant trade deficit with other countries, which is seen as normal due to its status as the world's largest consumer nation [7][9]. - Trump's imposition of reciprocal tariffs has drawn widespread criticism globally, as many believe it is an ineffective solution to the trade deficit issue [5][9]. Group 2: India’s Response to U.S. Tariffs - India announced its intention to impose retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. before finalizing trade agreements, indicating a strong stance against U.S. pressure [4][15]. - The trade agreement between the U.S. and India had nearly reached consensus, but disagreements over agricultural and dairy market access led to a breakdown in negotiations [13][19]. - India's decision to retaliate is surprising to many, as it reflects a willingness to stand firm against U.S. demands, particularly in sensitive sectors like agriculture [15][17]. Group 3: Factors Behind India's Stance - India's agricultural and dairy sectors are crucial for its farmers, making concessions in these areas politically risky for Prime Minister Modi [19]. - The influence of China's strong response to U.S. tariffs has emboldened India to adopt a more assertive position [21]. - India holds significant leverage over the U.S. due to its status as a major supplier of generic drugs and its robust IT industry, which contributes to its confidence in facing U.S. retaliation [21][23][24].

周末期间，特朗普表示，他已签署致12个国家的关税信函，将于周一发出。此前，美国与多国的关税谈 判陷入僵局，特朗普认为直接发信更简单。 "通过告诉我们的贸易伙伴，他们可能会回到4月2日的关税水平，我认为这将在未来几天和 几周内真正推动谈判进程。" 贝森特表示，重点在于18个主要贸易伙伴，尽管"对方在拖延"，但已有多项大协议接近达成。特朗普政 府数周来一直称，多项协议即将签署，目前公布的只有与英国的有限框架协议、中美贸易协议和特朗普 对越南协议的简要说明。 多个美国贸易伙伴在周末争分夺秒地寻求达成贸易协议或争取额外谈判时间，而财长斯科特·贝森特 （Scott Bessent）表示，对于在7月9日周三前仍未达成协议的国家，可选择获得为期三周的延期以继续 谈判。 "在接下来的72小时里，我们会非常忙碌，"贝森特周日在CNN《国情咨文》节目中谈到距政府7月9日最 后期限所剩时间时这样说道。 在周日接受两档节目的采访时，贝森特暗示称，特朗普总统本周将发出的函件，并非对各国即时关税水 平的最终定论。他表示，关税将于8月1日生效，因此对于尚未接近协议的国家，仍有时间提出新的条 件。 他否认这是另一个新的关税最后期限，但表示这 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly widened by 18.7% in May, reaching $71.5 billion, driven by a 4% decline in exports and a slight 0.1% decrease in imports [1][4] - Total imports decreased by 0.1% to $350.5 billion, with consumer goods imports dropping by $4 billion, particularly in textiles, apparel, home goods, and toys [4] - Industrial raw materials imports also weakened, with a notable decline in finished metal materials, while motor vehicle parts and engines saw an increase of $3.4 billion [4] Group 2 - U.S. exports fell by 4% to $279 billion, with a significant 5.9% drop in goods exports, primarily due to a $10 billion decline in industrial raw materials exports [7] - Capital goods exports decreased by $1.9 billion, with reduced demand for semiconductors, aircraft engines, and communication equipment [7] - The only positive aspect was a $1.5 billion increase in pharmaceutical exports, indicating structural challenges in U.S. export competitiveness [7] Group 3 - Economists suggest that the current trade data may signal a shift in economic growth dynamics, as the record trade deficit in Q1 had previously hindered GDP growth by 4.6 percentage points [9] - The ongoing adjustments in import and export structures reflect a silent transformation in the U.S. economy, with import contraction indicating cooling domestic demand and weak exports revealing insufficient global demand [9] - The widening trade deficit may represent a typical sign of economic cycle transition, hinting at potential economic rebalancing opportunities [9]

Group 1 - The US-EU trade negotiations have not made significant progress, with discussions expected to continue until the weekend [1] - The EU aims to reach a principle agreement with the US by July 9, and if not, seeks to extend the deadline for tariff increases [1][2] - The focus of the negotiations is on tariff exemptions for goods such as aircraft parts and spirits [1] Group 2 - Core demands between the US and EU are significantly divergent, with the EU willing to make concessions on purchasing US agricultural products, weapons, and LNG, while the US insists on addressing the trade deficit with demands on non-tariff barriers [2] - The US has imposed a 50% tariff on EU steel and aluminum products, a 25% tariff on automobiles, and a 10% baseline tariff on nearly all other goods [3] - The EU has postponed retaliatory tariffs on $210 billion worth of US imports until July 14, and is considering a second set of countermeasures initially estimated at €95 billion, now reduced to €72 billion [3] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs predicts that the most likely outcome of the US-EU trade negotiations will be a limited compromise [4]

Core Viewpoint - The US-Japan tariff negotiations have faced significant challenges, with Japan failing to achieve its initial goals and the future of the talks remaining uncertain [1][2][3]. Group 1: Negotiation Dynamics - Japan was one of the first countries to engage with the US after the implementation of indiscriminate tariffs in April, but it has not become the "benchmark" for negotiations as the US initially hoped [1]. - Japan's strategy has involved proposing a comprehensive cooperation plan to the US, including expanding trade and reducing trade deficits, but the US has remained firm on not discussing auto tariffs [2][5]. - The negotiation process has been complicated by structural issues, including the lack of effective communication with key US officials and the ultimate decision-making power resting with the US President [2][4]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The US's proposed 25% tariff on imported cars poses a "devastating blow" to Japan's core industries, particularly the automotive sector, which is crucial for Japan's economy [2][5]. - Japan's exports of cars to the US are projected to be around 1.37 million units in 2024, with a total export value of 7.2 trillion yen, accounting for 34% of Japan's exports to the US [5]. Group 3: Political Context - Japan aimed to reach a ministerial consensus before the G7 summit in June, but the lack of substantial progress has hindered the government's ability to showcase achievements ahead of the upcoming Senate elections [3][7]. - The Japanese government faces internal divisions regarding agricultural imports, particularly concerning US rice, which complicates negotiations further [6][7]. - The recent electoral losses for the ruling party and ongoing economic challenges, such as rising prices and slow wage growth, add pressure on the government as it navigates these negotiations [7].

Employment Situation - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a job gain of +147K for June, exceeding the consensus estimate of +110K and the revised +144K for May [1][2] - The Unemployment Rate decreased to 4.1%, indicating a healthy labor market [1][2] Job Revisions - Revisions for the previous two months showed an increase, with May's job gain revised from +139K to +144K and April's from +147K to +158K, totaling an additional +16K jobs over the past two months [3] Sector Analysis - The Government sector contributed +73K jobs, while the Federal Government saw a loss of -7K jobs [4] - The Healthcare sector added +39K jobs, and Social Assistance added +19K jobs, while traditional sectors like Leisure & Hospitality and Trade/Transportation/Utilities were absent from the report [5] Interest Rate Implications - The strong jobs report may reduce the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the upcoming FOMC meeting, potentially delaying cuts until September [6] Jobless Claims - Initial Jobless Claims decreased to 233K from a revised 237K, which is below the expected 240K, indicating a moderation in the labor market narrative [7] - Continuing Claims remained stable at 1.964 million, suggesting that the labor market has not yet reached a critical threshold that would indicate weakness [8] Trade Balance - The U.S. Trade Deficit for May was reported at -$71.5 billion, an improvement from the March record low of -$138 billion, with April's deficit revised to -$60.3 billion [9] Market Expectations - Analysts anticipate a rebound in Factory Orders for May and mixed results for Services PMI, with both metrics expected to remain above the growth threshold of 50 [10][11]

Core Insights - Canada's merchandise trade showed an increase in exports and a decrease in imports in May, leading to a narrowing trade deficit [1][3] - The trade deficit improved from a record 7.6 billion CAD in April to 5.9 billion CAD in May, indicating a marginal improvement in Canada's trade situation [3] Export Performance - Merchandise exports grew by 1.1% to 60.81 billion CAD, marking the first increase in four months, driven by demand in key sectors [1] - Unrefined gold exports surged by 30.1% to a record 5.9 billion CAD, primarily directed to the UK, influenced by international gold price fluctuations and strong UK demand [5] - Exports of consumer goods increased by 2.6%, with significant contributions from meat (up 13.1%) and processed seafood (up 52.9%), reflecting Canada's competitive edge in agricultural processing [6] - Exports to countries outside the US rose by 5.7%, reaching a historical high, indicating progress in diversifying trade partners [6] Import Trends - Imports fell by 1.6% to 66.66 billion CAD, marking the third consecutive month of decline [1][8] - The decline in imports was led by a 16.8% drop in metal and non-metal mineral products, particularly unrefined gold and silver, which saw a 43.2% decrease [7] - Consumer goods imports increased by 4.3%, driven by demand for video game consoles and pharmaceuticals, reflecting a recovery in domestic consumption [8] Trade Partner Dynamics - Trade with the US showed a slight increase in surplus from 3.1 billion CAD in April to 3.2 billion CAD, despite continuous declines in both exports and imports [9] - Exports to China decreased by 21.3%, primarily due to reduced canola and crude oil exports, while imports from China grew by 3.0%, leading to an expanded trade deficit of 3.72 billion CAD [10] - Exports to the UK surged by 28.9%, driven by gold exports, resulting in a trade surplus of 4.55 billion CAD, while imports from the UK fell by 49.2% [12] - Exports to Italy increased by 73.8%, indicating deepening trade cooperation in specific product areas [13]

Core Insights - The proportion of exports to the United States from Canada has dropped to its lowest level since at least 1997, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic period [1] - Exports to other countries have reached a record high, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [1] - In May, Canada's trade deficit narrowed to 5.9 billion CAD (approximately 4.3 billion USD) due to increased exports to countries other than the U.S. [1] Trade Dynamics - The share of exports to the U.S. fell to 68.3% in May, reflecting the impact of U.S. tariffs on trade between Canada and the U.S. [1] - The increase in exports to other countries has been significant enough to offset the decline in U.S. exports [1]

美国5月贸易逆差扩大 金十数据7月3日讯，美国5月贸易逆差扩大，因为美国出口下降。根据美国商务部的数据，5月进口额小 幅下降至3505亿美元，较4月的3508亿美元有所减少。但出口下降幅度更大，从4月的2906亿美元降至 2790亿美元。这导致了贸易赤字达到715亿美元，比4月的603亿美元增长了19%，高于经济学家们预期 的709亿美元。白宫的谈判立场使得今年的月度贸易数据波动较大。 ...