2019年7月，黄金也曾连续震荡七天，当时不少散户骂骂咧咧地离场，结果ETF突然加仓3.2吨，金价之后三天内从1410美元直冲1550美元，那些没扛住的人 后悔都来不及。 而就在最近，我们看到了相似的信号：尽管市场波动，但黄金ETF依然有资金流入，这与当年的剧本开头如出一辙。 市场的情绪。 眼下交流群里吵得像个菜市场，有人喊"要跌到3800"，有人赌"马上破4100"。 这种极度的分歧，恰恰是历史大行情启动前最经典的散户行为 特征。 当大多数人的耐心被消磨殆尽时，转机往往就不远了。 盯着盘面第八天，金价在3980美元上下晃荡，你是不是也觉得快熬不住了？ 先别急着关掉交易软件。 历史似乎正在我们眼前按下重播键，眼下这磨人的震 荡行情，几乎完美复刻了2019年6月那段让无数人拍断大腿的黄金暴涨前夜。 见证历史！金价突破2000美元，大妈们在"心动"，黄金又火了？__财经头条 美元走强，黄金为何不跌？ 当前市场一个关键的反常信号，是美元指数走强而黄金表现出抗跌性。 这通常意味着有强大的买盘在下方支撑。 回顾2019年，当时美元指数涨到98，黄金 却能在1400美元横盘，随后大幅上涨，类似的"抗跌信号"值得密切关注。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the gold market, characterized by sharp rises and falls, is attributed to increased economic uncertainty, intensified US-China competition, geopolitical conflicts, and a new tax policy on gold trading set to take effect in November 2025 [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The immediate trigger for the gold market's fluctuations was the announcement of a new tax policy by the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation on October 31, which will significantly alter the tax treatment of gold transactions [3][5]. - Following the announcement, major gold trading businesses in Shenzhen suspended pricing and settlement operations, indicating a swift market reaction to the new regulations [3][5]. - The new policy introduces a dual classification of market participants and differentiates tax treatment based on the use of gold, impacting the trading logic in the market [3][5]. Tax Policy Implications - The new tax rules will reduce the input tax deduction for certain market participants, particularly affecting those involved in investment-grade gold transactions [5][6]. - The policy aims to eliminate tax arbitrage opportunities that previously allowed for speculative trading, leading to a significant exit of gray market funds and a subsequent drop in gold consumption stocks [5][6]. Investment Sentiment - Despite the volatility, gold remains a focal point due to its unique status as a scarce safe-haven asset, although its price is influenced by market sentiment and capital flows [8][10]. - Historical trends indicate that gold performs well in inflationary environments, and current economic conditions in the US suggest a supportive backdrop for gold prices [17][28]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term support for gold as an asset class remains intact, driven by central bank purchases and a shift in global reserve structures away from the dollar [12][28]. - The new tax policy is expected to have a dual effect, causing short-term emotional disturbances while promoting a more rational market structure in the long run [28][29]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to clearly define their investment logic and risk tolerance when considering gold, emphasizing its role as a risk hedge rather than a high-return asset [20][29]. - A recommended allocation of gold in a diversified portfolio is between 5% to 10%, with a focus on avoiding speculative behavior and identifying appropriate entry points during market corrections [20][29]. - For retail investors, gold ETFs and accumulation gold products are suggested as they offer lower barriers to entry and better liquidity compared to physical gold [24][29].

CONCLUDED Stock Market News From Nov. 5, 2025: S&P 500 Rises After Supreme Court Tariff Hearing Memberships Last Updated: 6 hours ago Gold Turns Back Up Toward the $4,000/oz Level By Kirk Maltais, Dow Jones Newswires Most-active gold futures are up 0.8%, at just above $3,990 per troy ounce. Gold futures have been in consolidation mode in recent sessions, but analysts think that gold has another leg of upward momentum to it, due to continued strong demand for gold by ETFs and central banks. "Despite the rece ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the recent participation of actress Tong Liya in a red carpet event and her subsequent purchasing activities in the Shenzhen Water Bay Gold Market, which is a significant hub for the gold and jewelry industry in China. The market's trading environment is currently active due to rising gold prices influenced by new tax policies [3][6][14]. Group 1: Market Overview - The Shenzhen Water Bay Gold Market has evolved from a manufacturing base to a wholesale center since the early 1980s, now supplying approximately 70% of the country's jewelry and holding a significant share of the domestic gold wholesale market [4]. - The market's annual transaction volume exceeds 100 billion yuan, indicating its critical role in the gold and jewelry supply chain [4]. Group 2: Recent Developments - On November 3, 2025, the gold price in the Water Bay market reached 991 yuan per gram, an increase of over 50 yuan from the previous day, driven by new tax policies implemented on November 1, 2025 [6]. - The new tax policy differentiates between investment and non-investment gold, aiming to reduce transaction costs and eliminate double taxation for standard gold traded through designated exchanges [6][14]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Tong Liya's purchasing activities occurred on the same day as the gold price surge, where she selected various gold items, indicating a significant interest in gold as a form of investment [8][12]. - The market's active trading environment and the recent price fluctuations have influenced consumer purchasing decisions, with many consumers, including celebrities, recognizing gold's value retention properties [12][14]. Group 4: Regulatory Impact - The new tax regulations have reduced the input tax for gold jewelry enterprises from 13% to 6%, potentially increasing costs for these businesses while lowering tax burdens for investment gold sales [14]. - The policy aims to clarify the distinction between investment and non-investment gold, thereby regulating source transactions and enhancing market oversight [14].

Core Insights - The recent surge and volatility in gold prices have sparked a new wave of investment in gold, significantly impacting companies within the gold industry chain [1] Group 1: Impact on Gold Mining Companies - The rise in gold prices has positively affected upstream gold mining companies, leading to increased performance as evidenced by the third-quarter reports of listed gold mining companies [2] - According to Wind data, gold industry listed companies reported growth in both revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025, with companies like Zhaojin Mining and Western Gold seeing revenue and net profit growth rates exceeding 100% [2] Group 2: Impact on Gold Jewelry Companies - Conversely, the significant increase in gold prices has negatively impacted downstream gold jewelry companies, with many reporting declines in performance for the first three quarters of 2025 [2] - Companies such as Zhou Dashing, Mingpai Jewelry, Laofengxiang, and China Gold experienced varying degrees of revenue decline, with Mingpai Jewelry and Laofengxiang also reporting substantial drops in net profit [3] Group 3: Market Demand and Consumer Behavior - The overall demand for gold jewelry in China has seen a decline, with a reported 25% drop in total gold jewelry consumption for the first three quarters of 2025, despite a 21% quarter-on-quarter increase in the third quarter [5] - Zhou Dafu Jewelry Group indicated a potential turning point in business performance, with same-store sales growth in mainland China and Hong Kong/Macau showing positive trends [6][7] Group 4: Corporate Strategies and Innovations - Companies are actively seeking strategies to mitigate the impact of high gold prices, focusing on inventory management, product innovation, and marketing [8] - Zhou Dafu Jewelry Group has implemented mechanisms to monitor gold price fluctuations and adjust pricing accordingly, while also innovating product designs to cater to changing consumer preferences [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge and volatility in gold prices have sparked a new wave of investment interest in gold, significantly impacting companies across the gold industry chain [1][2]. Impact on Industry Chain - The high gold prices have had varying effects on companies within the gold industry chain. Upstream gold mining companies have benefited from increased revenues and profits, as evidenced by the third-quarter reports of listed gold mining companies, which showed substantial year-on-year growth in both revenue and net profit [5][4]. - Conversely, downstream gold jewelry companies have faced challenges, with many reporting declines in performance during the same period. For instance, companies like Zhou Dashing, Mingpai Jewelry, and Laofengxiang experienced revenue declines, with Mingpai Jewelry's net profit plummeting by over 1500% [5][6]. Performance Data - Specific performance metrics for jewelry companies include: - Zhou Dashing: Revenue down 37.35%, net profit up 3.13% - Mingpai Jewelry: Revenue down 25.37%, net profit down 1502.07% - Laofengxiang: Revenue down 8.71%, net profit down 19.05% - China Gold: Revenue down 1.74%, net profit down 55.08% [6]. Market Demand Trends - Despite the challenges, the overall demand for gold jewelry in China showed a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21% in the third quarter of 2025, although it still represented an 18% year-on-year decline. The total gold jewelry consumption for the first three quarters of 2025 was 278 tons, down 25% year-on-year [7]. Company Strategies - Companies are actively seeking strategies to mitigate the impact of high gold prices. For example, Zhou Dashing has reported a stable inventory level and is closely monitoring gold price fluctuations to adjust pricing accordingly. They are also focusing on product innovation and market expansion to meet diverse consumer needs [10][11]. - Zhou Dafu Jewelry Group has highlighted a positive trend in sales, particularly in their priced gold products, which saw a 43.7% year-on-year increase in retail value during the second quarter of the 2026 fiscal year [8]. Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historically, gold has been a safe-haven asset, with its price increasing significantly over the past decade. However, it is also subject to volatility and has experienced substantial corrections in the past [13][14]. - Looking ahead, analysts suggest that while short-term fluctuations may occur, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing global economic uncertainties and the trend of central banks accumulating gold [13].

2025年金店外头的人流几乎没有断过，每家店橱窗里最闪耀的首饰和条块下手的手，总是那么多。英国 那边的黄金定价一年涨了不少，全球的货币玩家和普通百姓仿佛都被某种力量推着冲进金市。这样的现 象怎么就火了？背后又有哪些门道？ 文案|编辑：凤梨 先从大家最关心的钱袋子说起。现在的利息一年比一年低，存在银行的钱顶不上超市里涨的物价，辛苦 存的钱迟早会缩水。市场不景气，炒股又怕被套，买房的话首付和贷款压得人喘不上气，不少人只好把 盼头放到了黄金身上。 存金条、戴首饰，还是投资黄金ETF，不少人觉得这些比盯利率、看股市更稳妥。在价钱上看，黄金还 真没让人失望，这种安全感在乱世里就更值钱了。 只要某地局势不稳，金价几乎立刻反应，比什么还灵敏。不光百姓存黄金压心，国家也是出于备战备荒 的需要才在国际市场上囤金，一旦世界风云不稳，这就是可以救急的东西。 当然，央行们抢黄金也不是瞎忙活。美国利用美元做自己的底牌，有时动辄冻结别国资产，这让不少国 家出来想新路子。买黄金成了不少国家的共识，因为它不归谁掌控，不用担心和谁闹掰了存款被冻结。 现在俄罗斯、波兰、还有中国的央行都在不断加仓黄金，大家都怕继续押注美元会出大事。对不少发展 中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new gold tax policy, effective from November 1, 2025, aims to regulate the gold market by categorizing gold transactions into "investment" and "non-investment" types, potentially leading to an increase in retail prices of investment gold bars and widening the buy-sell price gap [2] Group 1: Tax Policy Implications - The new tax policy will exempt value-added tax (VAT) on standard gold traded on exchanges, while non-exchange transactions will incur VAT, promoting a more regulated and transparent market [2] - For ordinary consumers, tax costs are a significant factor in choosing investment channels, with lower costs available through exchange member units compared to non-exchange channels [2] Group 2: Investment Options and Strategies - Physical gold is a direct investment method, but gold jewelry is not suitable for pure investment due to high premiums and potential depreciation [3] - Gold ETFs offer liquidity, low transaction costs, and no storage costs, making them accessible for ordinary investors [3] - Gold dollar-cost averaging is recommended to mitigate risks associated with price volatility, allowing investors to smooth costs over time [3] Group 3: Market Trends and Recommendations - Experts suggest that the proportion of gold assets in total household assets should be controlled, with conservative investors keeping it under 5% and aggressive investors under 10% [4] - Gold serves as a hedge against inflation and credit currency risks, typically moving inversely to stock markets, thus providing risk diversification [4] - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with a reported net purchase of 634 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a trend towards asset diversification and geopolitical risk management [4] Group 4: Market Risks and Investor Behavior - Ordinary investors should be cautious of short-term market volatility, as current gold prices are at historical highs, with signs of market overbuying [5] - The tax adjustment is seen as a means to standardize transactions rather than alter value, with historical data indicating that gold prices will ultimately align with core economic factors [5] - Investors are advised to consider their risk tolerance and investment horizon when selecting gold products and channels, ensuring that gold serves as a stabilizing asset in their portfolio [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices has sparked significant interest among the general public, leading to increased buying and selling activities in both retail and recovery markets, raising questions about whether this is a good investment opportunity or a potential risk [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have risen dramatically, with the price in Shanghai reaching a historical high of 618.8 yuan per gram, marking a 28.54% increase for the year, while international COMEX gold rose by 29.06% to $2673.9 per ounce [1][2]. - The global demand for gold has reached a record high of $382 billion in 2024, driven by both consumer and investment needs [2]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - Several key factors are contributing to the rise in gold prices, including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which has initiated a period of easing with a 50 basis point rate cut in September 2024, historically correlating with rising gold prices [4]. - Central banks globally have increased their gold purchases, with total purchases exceeding 1045 tons in 2024, and China's reserves reaching 2264 tons, providing strong support for gold prices [4]. - Geopolitical uncertainties, such as the escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict and the upcoming U.S. elections, have heightened market risk aversion, further boosting demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Despite the excitement surrounding rising gold prices, there are inherent risks, including price volatility and potential market corrections if supportive factors weaken [5]. - For ordinary consumers, there are hidden costs associated with purchasing physical gold, such as craftsmanship fees and lower resale values, which can erode profits [5]. - The current gold price levels are at historical highs, with 40 record highs in 2024 alone, suggesting that further price increases may lead to unfavorable buying conditions [5]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Different investor profiles should adopt tailored strategies: - For those with immediate needs, a phased buying approach is recommended, purchasing a portion now and waiting for a price dip of 5%-10% for additional purchases [6]. - Long-term investors may consider allocating up to 5% of their assets to gold, favoring gold ETFs or spot contracts for easier liquidity and lower costs [6]. - New investors should start with small amounts in gold ETFs to understand market fluctuations without risking significant capital [6].

Core Viewpoint - Recent significant drop in gold prices has caused investor panic, with many interpreting it as a signal of market "harvesting" [1] Group 1: Reasons for Gold Price Drop - Majority of opinions attribute the decline to easing conflict tensions, but this explanation is inconsistent as U.S. stock markets also fell simultaneously [4] - The Federal Reserve's recent activation of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) is a crucial factor, indicating potential liquidity issues in the market [4][6] - The SRF tool, designed to alleviate market liquidity stress, has seen high-frequency and large-scale operations in October, with operations exceeding $5 billion for three consecutive days, marking the first significant liquidity shortage since the pandemic [6][9] Group 2: Broader Financial Context - The private credit market in the U.S. has reached $1.7 trillion, nearing 10% of the U.S. Treasury market, raising concerns about rapid growth and insufficient regulation [9] - Recent bankruptcies of companies like First Brands and Tricolor highlight the severity of the private debt crisis, drawing parallels to the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis [11] - U.S. household debt has reached a record high of $18.4 trillion, with rising delinquency rates in credit cards and auto loans indicating tightening liquidity at the household level [11] Group 3: Historical Context of Gold and Liquidity - Gold has historically been one of the fastest depreciating assets during liquidity crises, as seen during the 2008 financial crisis and the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic [14][16] - In times of liquidity stress, investors often sell their most liquid and valuable assets, with gold being a primary choice, although such declines are typically short-lived due to central banks' quick shift to easing policies [16] Group 4: Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current liquidity tightening in the U.S. is a result of years of quantitative tightening, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts in October, leading to a likely continuation of loose monetary policy [18][20] - From a long-term perspective, the trend of global interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions suggest that gold remains a valuable asset, while short-term volatility may pose risks [20] - Investors are advised to diversify their portfolios and maintain a cautious approach towards perceived "safe assets," as no asset is entirely risk-free [20][21]