隔夜美联储结束了为期两天的利率会议，如市场预期的按兵不动，联邦基金利率仍维持在4.25%-4.50% 区间。迄今为止，美联储已在连续三次会议上维持利率不变。 美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表态略偏鹰派，他表示，美联储不必急于调整利率，目前的政策是适 度限制的。值得一提的是，鲍威尔还表示，总统特朗普对降息的呼声"根本不会影响"美联储的工作，美 联储从未主动要求与任何总统会面，并且将来也不会。 受上述消息影响，市场对降息的预期微有弱化，目前市场的最新观点是，美联储最早将于今年7月才有 可能下调利率。 继周三冲高回落后，周四A股各大股指以涨为主。截至收盘，上证综指涨0.28%至3352.00点；深综指涨 1.03%，创业板综指涨1.48%，科创50指数跌0.36%，北证50指数涨0.98%。全A总成交额为13218亿元， 较周三的15051亿元明显萎缩。 由个股看，前一天表现强劲的航空航天等军工股继续领涨。军工类股票异常强劲应部分与近期地缘局势 趋向紧张相关，比如南亚局势，这使投资者对国防工业的重要性有了更新的认识。 除军工股涨势喜人外，通信设备、交运设备、通用设备、光伏设备、电机、橡胶制品板块涨幅也相对领 先。下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed a decent performance on May 8, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.28% to 3352 points, but experienced a significant decrease in trading volume, with a total turnover of 1.32 trillion, down 180 billion from the previous trading day. The reduction in volume is attributed to multiple favorable factors leading to a reluctance to sell, resulting in light selling pressure [2][4]. Volume Analysis - The trading volume has dropped significantly, falling below the average of the last five days, indicating a technical need to confirm the five-day moving average. The market is expected to maintain a range-bound movement unless there is sufficient buying support to trigger a strong upward trend [2][4][5]. - The market's upward movement is constrained by visible resistance levels, which diminishes the willingness to aggressively buy, leading to the observed volume contraction [2][4]. Technical Indicators - On a 30-minute timeframe, if a double top pattern is confirmed, a pullback to the five-day moving average is anticipated. The daily indicators are also expected to undergo a repair phase, which will help determine whether a trend reversal is occurring [3][5]. - The left-side structure indicates that if traders do not exit at high points, the potential for future profits diminishes. Conversely, a right-side structure allows for profitability even if high points are not sold [3][4]. Market Sentiment - Retail investors often struggle in a left-side structure, as they tend to cut losses only when facing losses, while holding onto profits. This behavior can lead to challenges during extreme market conditions [4][6]. - Despite a positive overall market sentiment with many stocks hitting the daily limit, caution is advised, especially with the increased number of ST (special treatment) stocks experiencing limit-up movements [4][5]. Future Outlook - The market is not yet at a definitive bottom, as indicated by the 3040-point level, which is viewed as a policy bottom rather than a market bottom. The focus will be on the repair of daily indicators before making further investment decisions [6].

Market Overview - The A-share market continued to rise, with the ChiNext index increasing by over 1.65%, while total trading volume decreased to 1.32 trillion yuan compared to the previous day [1][4] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target rate at 4.25-4.50%, aligning with market expectations, and kept the balance sheet reduction pace unchanged [2][3] Federal Reserve Insights - The Fed's recent meeting indicated a cautious stance on monetary policy adjustments, with market expectations for three rate cuts this year in July, September, and December [1][2] - Powell highlighted the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and its impact on inflation and growth, suggesting a wait-and-see approach [2] Central Bank Actions - As of the end of April, China's gold reserves reached 73.77 million ounces (approximately 2,294.51 tons), marking a month-on-month increase of 70,000 ounces (about 2.18 tons) for the sixth consecutive month [2] - The continuous increase in gold reserves reflects concerns over global economic uncertainty and risks associated with the US dollar [3] Sector Performance - In the A-share market, the telecommunications, defense, and power equipment sectors led the gains, with increases of 2.60%, 2.57%, and 1.62% respectively [4] - Conversely, the beauty care, non-ferrous metals, and steel sectors experienced declines of 0.96%, 0.43%, and 0.38% respectively [4] Trading Data - The market's trading volume was reported at 1,321.94 billion yuan, showing a decrease from the previous trading day [5] - The margin trading balance rose to 1,808.746 billion yuan, indicating an increase compared to the prior day [5]

A股开盘，上证指数跌0.34%，深证成指跌0.23%，创业板指跌0.12%。 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is gradually stabilizing and recovering after the impact of "reciprocal tariffs," with a slight decline for the month. It is suggested that future fund allocations maintain a balanced style while moderately leaning towards growth, emphasizing the importance of fund managers' stock selection and risk control capabilities [1][2] - In April, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by the drastic changes in the external environment due to trade friction. The strategy team believes that after the shock, investors' understanding of the economic situation has improved, which is crucial for the stock market's recovery [2] - The focus of Sino-US competition extends beyond economic trade to technological and productivity advantages. In the medium to long term, emerging technology remains a key theme, and the financial cycle is expected to be a dark horse under the influence of declining risk-free interest rates and new capital inflows [2] Group 2 - Global central bank gold purchasing behavior is expected to be long-term and sustained, reflecting changes in the trust foundation of the global monetary system. The rise of trade protectionism and the restructuring of the global economy will increase economic differentiation, supporting residents' demand for gold [3] - The fundamental impact of the US dollar on gold pricing has weakened but still holds some influence. If the US economy weakens, the support for gold prices will strengthen. This gold bull market is characterized by different driving factors and pricing frameworks, suggesting a potentially long cycle [3] - From a long-term investment and risk-hedging perspective, it is recommended to allocate to gold ETFs [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market has surged past the 3350-point mark, driven by positive news, but there are concerns about sustainability and potential pitfalls due to market behavior [1][2] - The market opened significantly higher due to favorable news, breaking through the strong resistance level of 3327, but there are worries about a gap left from the jump and a high-open low-close pattern, indicating a need to consolidate gains before further upward movement [1][2] - The market sentiment is mixed, with a shift from broad gains to more stocks declining than rising, suggesting that the initial surge was primarily a reaction to news rather than a sustained rally [2][3] Group 2 - The market's emotional response has been hindered by external news influences, leading to a focus on military and financial sectors while technology stocks, which are crucial for market momentum, faced adjustments [3] - The current market dynamics indicate a potential rotation, where investors should be cautious about high valuations and look for opportunities during pullbacks, particularly in technology stocks [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant increase but closed lower, indicating strong selling pressure despite positive news [2][3]. Market Performance - On May 7, the A-share market opened high and closed with a 0.8% increase, ending at 3342 points, but showed signs of selling pressure with a notable presence of bearish candlesticks [2][3]. - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a high of 3356 points during the day, reminiscent of previous peaks in November and December 2024, but the current structure remains uncertain [2][3]. Technical Analysis - The recent increase in bearish candlesticks suggests that there is significant selling activity, with the market showing a clear divergence in the 120-minute timeframe [3][4]. - The 5-day moving average is critical; if it is effectively broken, it could lead to further declines in the market [4]. - The KDJ indicator is near 80, indicating potential overbought conditions, and a double top formation could lead to a test of the 5-day moving average [4]. Sector Performance - The Shenzhen index rose by 0.22%, with a maximum increase of 1.65% earlier in the day, indicating weaker performance compared to the Shanghai index [4]. - The ChiNext index increased by 0.51%, with an early peak of 2.47%, but closed with a significant bearish candlestick, reflecting heavy selling pressure [5]. Investment Strategy - Given the current market conditions, caution is advised, and investors should consider taking profits on any rallies, as the market shows signs of a left-side structure with declining highs and lows [5].

A股深证成指午后率先翻绿，盘中一度涨超1.6%，上证指数涨幅收窄至0.37%，创业板指收窄至 0.04%。 ...

资金流向上，Wind数据显示，A500指数ETF（159351）昨日获超5400万元资金净流入。 A500指数ETF（159351）紧密跟踪新一代标杆指数中证A500指数，该指数优选各行业市值代表性强、 表征行业龙头的500只股票，兼顾大市值的同时均衡覆盖A股各行业核心龙头资产。 A500指数ETF（159351）还配备了场外联接基金（A类022453；C类022454）。 消息面上，国务院新闻办公室今日举行新闻发布会，介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情 况。中国人民银行行长潘功胜在会上宣布，降准0.5个百分点，向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元，并降 低政策利率0.1个百分点。此外，中国人民银行行长潘功胜还表示，优化两项支持资本市场货币政策工 具，将5000亿元证券基金保险公司互换便利，和3000亿元股票增持回购再贷款两个工具的额度合并，总 额度变为8000亿元。 东方证券研报统计显示：截至2025年4月30日，规模最大的ETF跟踪标的为沪深300，总规模10359.15亿 元，其次为中证A500规模2113.36亿元。 5月7日，A股主要指数盘中反复活跃。主要宽基ETF中，A500指数ETF（159 ...

金融监管总局局长李云泽在参加国新办新闻发布会时表示，近期共推出8项增量政策，包括加快出 台与房地产发展新模式相适配的系列融资制度，进一步扩大保险资金长期投资试点范围，为市场引 入更多增量资金，调整优化监管规则，调降保险公司股票投资风险因子，支持稳定和活跃资本市 场，尽快推出支持小微企业、民营企业融资一揽子政策，制定银行业、保险业护航外贸发展系列政 策措施，对受关税影响较大的市场主体提供精准服务，修订并购贷款管理办法，加大对科创企业的 投资力度，制定科技保险高质量发展意见。 中国证监会主席吴清在参加国新办新闻发布会时表示，全力巩固市场维稳向好的势头，动态完善应 对各类外部风险工作预案，全力支持中央汇金公司发挥类平准基金作用。 他表示，A股市场的科技叙事逻辑越来越清晰，集聚效应日益明显。而 中国资产的配置价值和吸引 力都在持续提升。吴清坦言，前行的路上会有风有雨，不管是轻风细雨，还是暴风骤雨，不管是风 高浪急，还是惊涛骇浪，我们都有信心，有条件有能力来实现稳定健康发展。 历次调准后A股表现 最近一次央行降准发生在2024年9月27日，当日早间8点左右，央行发布公告称，中国人民银行坚 持支持性的货币政策立场，加大货 ...