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红利资产走势分化,中长期配置价值凸显
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-07-28 06:15
Event and Commentary - The overall dividend performance has shown significant differentiation this year, with most dividend assets in the A-share market underperforming the broader market in the first half of the year, particularly concentrated in the banking sector, which rose by 13.1% while the CSI Dividend Index fell by 3.1% [1] - Following the "anti-involution" policy introduced by the Central Financial Committee and subsequent government plans to stimulate growth in key industries, commodity prices have surged since late June, leading to a notable recovery in industry sentiment and strong performance in high-dividend sectors related to the cycle [1][4] - Historical trends indicate that dividend strategies tend to outperform the market from November to April, primarily due to increased risk aversion and pre-emptive positioning for dividend announcements [1] Core Views - There is a clear differentiation in dividend assets this year, with recent policies favoring cyclical resources [3] - The banking sector has seen a significant rise, with the banking index increasing by 19.5% as of July 10, driven by valuation increases, while other high-dividend sectors have generally declined [3][4] - The decline in the banking sector's dividend yield is attributed to a significant drop in the rolling cumulative dividend amount over the past 12 months, although this decline is expected to stabilize [6] Market Environment - The macroeconomic environment remains supportive for high-dividend equity assets, with a continuation of low interest rates and expected inflows of incremental capital into the market [2][7] - The dividend payout ratio in the A-share market still has room for improvement, and there is potential for structural expansion in dividend assets beyond the banking sector, including insurance, coal, steel, and construction [2][7] Hong Kong Market Insights - Hong Kong dividend assets exhibit a higher dividend yield compared to A-shares, with the Hang Seng Index showing a 3.1% yield and the Hong Kong Central Enterprise Dividend Index at 5.6% [8] - The tax advantages of investing in Hong Kong through the Stock Connect program are expected to enhance trading activity and attract more investors [8] Key Products - Dividend Quality ETF (159758) tracks the CSI Dividend Quality Index, focusing on companies with high dividend payment rates and profitability [9] - Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) reflects the performance of companies with high and stable free cash flow levels [9] - Hong Kong Central Enterprise Dividend ETF (513910) targets high-dividend central enterprises within the Hong Kong market [10]
稳步入市!险资后市展望来了
券商中国· 2025-07-28 03:48
近日,中国保险资产管理业协会研究专委会召开2025年二季度保险资金运用形势分析会。会上,险资人士 研判了行业形势以及权益、固收投资策略。 资负两端仍面临压力,但发生积极变化 对于保险资金的资产配置,与会人士从资负两端予以分析,认为仍存在一定利差压力,但已发生积极变化。 新华资产总经理陈一江表示,当前保险行业的负债端硬约束和资产端软着陆并存,利差损压力凸显。其中,负 债端呈现规模快速增长、久期偏长、成本刚性等"硬约束";资产端进入"软着陆"阶段,高息非标资产陆续到期 叠加信用利差收窄,导致优质高收益资产供给不足,再投资压力增大。 中国人寿(601628)投资管理中心总经理肖凤群认为,保险投资仍面临较大挑战,资负利差持续收窄。但是, 随着负债端深化业务转型,中长期资金入市环境持续优化,行业生态发生积极变化。 太保资产总经理助理兼固定收益部总经理赵峰对固收投资作了具体分析。他表示,受经济周期和内外部不确定 性等因素影响,10年期国债利率逐级下行,屡创新低,保险公司面临利差损风险、净资产波动、财务预算难以 实现等挑战。 保险资管协会党委委员、副秘书长张倩表示,保险资金投资面临多重变化:一是保险资金长钱长投的内在需求 ...
挖掘低利率时代“隐形红利资产”
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-07-27 21:07
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the increasing value of dividend assets in a low interest rate environment, highlighting their demand rigidity and stable cash flow, which enhances performance resilience and defensive attributes [1] - The Guojin Dividend Quantitative Stock Mixed Securities Investment Fund was launched on July 28, focusing on dividend-themed listed companies, with a stock asset allocation of 60%-95% and at least 80% of non-cash fund assets invested in dividend-related stocks [2] - The fund manager, Ma Fang, indicates that the integration of quantitative strategies into dividend investment allows for more flexible adjustments and the potential to discover "hidden dividend assets," thus capturing market opportunities [3] Group 2 - The investment strategy is summarized as "dividend as the base, quantitative gain," where a stock selection model is constructed based on economic fundamentals and market sentiment to evaluate company value [3] - The Guojin Fund has been committed to quantitative investment since 2013, maintaining a focus on the development of the domestic quantitative market, with expectations for continued growth in the scale of public quantitative funds in the coming years [4] - The quantitative investment team is led by experienced professionals with backgrounds in finance and IT, utilizing artificial intelligence and machine learning methods to enhance investment strategies [3][4]
红利资产“当红”, 长城基金力争增强投资者获得感
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-07-25 08:19
Core Viewpoint - The dominance of dividend assets remains unchanged in a low interest rate macro environment, with the A-share market entering the dividend season, enhancing investor experience through dividends [1][3] Group 1: Dividend Announcements - Changcheng Fund's two dividend products announced dividends, aiming to enhance investor satisfaction [1] - Changcheng CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Index QDII (Class A: 022325; Class C: 022326) announced a dividend of 0.03 yuan per ten shares for both classes, with the record date on July 28 and the ex-dividend date on July 25 [1] - Changcheng CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 Fund (Class A: 022097; Class C: 022098) also announced a dividend of 0.03 yuan per ten shares, with the same record and ex-dividend dates as the previous fund [1] Group 2: Fund Strategy and Market Positioning - In recent years, Changcheng Fund has increased its focus on dividend index products, covering both A-share and Hong Kong markets to help investors seize dividend asset allocation opportunities [2] - The Changcheng CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 ETF (Code: 159228) closely tracks the CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index, catering to on-market investors' needs for A-share dividend opportunities [2] - The Changcheng CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Index QDII focuses on capturing Hong Kong stock dividend opportunities [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Changcheng Fund anticipates continued growth in dividend assets, driven by long-term capital entering the market and favorable policies [3] - Policies are encouraging long-term capital to invest, making dividend assets attractive to insurance funds and pension funds seeking stable returns [3] - New policies, such as the "National Nine Articles," are expected to increase the enthusiasm of A-share listed companies for distributing dividends, providing ongoing support for the dividend market [3]
预定利率研究值三连降至1.99% 寿险产品首触上限调降
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-07-25 07:51
Core Viewpoint - The ordinary life insurance product's preset interest rate has been adjusted downwards for the first time since the establishment of the dynamic adjustment mechanism, with the current rate set at 1.99% [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Current Interest Rate Adjustment - The latest preset interest rate for ordinary life insurance products is 1.99%, down from previous values of 2.34% and 2.13% [2][3] - This adjustment is in line with the dynamic adjustment mechanism established to link preset rates with market interest rates [4] Economic Context - The macroeconomic environment remains stable, with a GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.1% in Q2 2025 [2] - The insurance industry is adapting to regulatory changes and focusing on product transformation and risk management [2] Regulatory Framework - The dynamic adjustment mechanism was introduced to ensure that the preset interest rates for insurance products are responsive to market conditions [4][5] - Insurance companies are required to adjust their new product preset interest rates within two months if the current rates exceed the research values by 25 basis points for two consecutive quarters [5] Product Structure and Strategy - The adjustment in preset interest rates is expected to improve the value rate of new policies and enhance sales performance in the life insurance sector [5] - Companies are shifting towards dividend-type products with lower reliance on interest rate spreads, as indicated by the introduction of new products with a preset rate of 1.5% [6][7] Investment Strategy - Insurance companies are expected to adjust their investment strategies to align with the transformation towards dividend-type products, focusing on high-dividend assets [9] - The trend of increasing equity allocations and investments in stable cash flow sectors such as banking and utilities is noted, as these sectors provide consistent dividends [9][10]
第二批新模式浮动费率基金获批;上半年黄金ETF规模环比涨近五成
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-25 07:34
Group 1 - The second batch of 12 new floating rate funds has been approved and will be launched sequentially, with notable fund managers including Huatai-PB, Guotai, Morgan, and others participating for the first time [1] - As of the end of Q2, the total scale of gold ETFs and linked funds reached 260.34 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 49.73%, with 8 gold funds exceeding 10 billion yuan in scale [2] - The total scale of bond ETFs has surpassed 500 billion yuan, reaching 507.69 billion yuan, which is a 191.82% increase from the beginning of the year [3] Group 2 - Zhu Liang, Vice President and Chief Investment Officer of Lianbo Fund, expressed a positive outlook on long-duration assets, focusing on three main areas: dividend assets, new productivity driven by technology, and new consumer trends [4] - The market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.22%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.23%, with total trading volume of 1.79 trillion yuan, a decrease of 57.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day [5] - The STAR Market Index ETF saw significant activity, with a 20% increase, while AI-related ETFs on the STAR Market collectively strengthened [6] Group 3 - The medical device industry is entering a phase driven by both policy and technology, with a shift from "compliance control" to "innovation-led" development, highlighting the trends of domestic substitution and technology going abroad [9]
增配金融股!公募二季度仓位提高,银行股的共识与分歧出现
券商中国· 2025-07-25 06:03
以银行股为代表的红利资产,除了保险资金不断举牌加仓外,公募基金也在增配。 近日,公募基金二季度持仓公布,主动权益类基金持有银行股的占比上升了0.9个百分点,非银金融持仓也提高了0.6个百分点,不过相对于 行业配置基准(行业市值占全A市值的比例)仍有空间。目前银行股的股息率仍然突出,平均市净率PB也低于1,但出于对净息差收窄和地 产下行拖累的担忧,市场对银行股的看法也存在分歧。 值得注意的是,当险资频频举牌银行H股,公募基金也开始增配, 部分银行股的A/H价差收窄,招商银行A/H价格倒挂,邮储银行、民生银 行等A/H溢价率大幅收窄,考虑到港股通20%或28%的红利税成本,后续在具体个股和A/H股的选择上,资金偏好可能有所分化。 金融股持仓比例提升 整体上,主动权益类基金在二季度明显增配了银行股和非银金融(券商、保险等),保险资金也在港股市场上频繁举牌银行股,但局部上一 些资金也获利了结,关于银行股的共识与分歧已经出现。 比如中泰资管的百亿基金经理姜诚,二季度就小幅减仓工商银行、招商银行,不过这两只银行股仍是他管理的中泰星元灵活配置混合A前十 大重仓股。姜诚一直认为选择红利股的关键不仅是股息率高,而且有持续且稳定 ...
红利港股ETF(159331)盘中迎净流入!低利率时代,关注可月月评估分红的红利港股ETF(159331)
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-07-25 05:35
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Dividend Hong Kong Stock ETF (159331) is experiencing significant net inflows, indicating strong investor interest in dividend-paying assets amid a low interest rate environment [1] - The ETF tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Index, which includes 30 high dividend yield securities from Hong Kong-listed companies that meet liquidity and continuous dividend criteria [1] - The index focuses on quality companies with stable dividend capabilities, primarily in traditional sectors such as real estate and energy, reflecting the overall performance of high dividend securities in the Hong Kong market [1] Group 2 - The Dividend Hong Kong Stock ETF (159331) has distributed dividends for 11 consecutive months since its launch, making it an attractive option for investors seeking regular income [2] - Investors without stock accounts can consider related funds such as the Cathay CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Investment ETF Initiated Link A (022274) and Link C (022275) [2] - The fund's distribution principles allow for monthly evaluations of excess returns relative to benchmarks, enabling cash distributions when certain performance criteria are met [3]
Ta是“躺赢神器”还是“防守备胎”?三季度红利资产还能配吗?
天天基金网· 2025-07-24 11:56
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the attractiveness of high dividend assets in a low interest rate environment, highlighting the potential for stable cash returns and capital appreciation, while emphasizing the importance of selecting appropriate passive and active investment products [1][2]. Group 1: Low Interest Rate Environment - In the low interest rate era, dividend assets are expected to outperform in the long term, as evidenced by Japan's experience in the 1990s where high dividend indices consistently outperformed the Nikkei 225 by 1.5%-3.4% [2]. - Domestic conditions show that with deposit rates falling below 1% and wealth management returns dropping to 2%-3%, the dividend yield of the CSI Dividend Index at 5.52% makes it an attractive asset allocation choice [2]. Group 2: Support for Dividend Assets - The safety of dividend assets is backed by state support, scarcity of high dividends, and fundamental support from banks and coal sectors [4][5]. - The new "National Nine Articles" enhances dividend regulation and facilitates the entry of insurance and pension funds into the market, aligning with the demand for dividend assets [6]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - The CSI Dividend Index's top three sectors by weight are banking (25.6%), coal (15.5%), and transportation (14.0%), with a cumulative return of 19.57% in 2024, primarily driven by banking [7]. - The banking sector maintains a high dividend yield of 5.03%, indicating a long-term advantage despite current performance pressures [7]. - Coal prices have dropped by 8.97% in 2024, but recent policies may improve the supply-demand balance, suggesting potential price stabilization [7]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Since 2017, the dividend attribute has shifted from "offensive" to "defensive," providing excess returns during market downturns and stability in bull markets [8]. Group 5: Avoiding Dividend Traps - High dividend yield does not equate to high returns; investors should avoid pitfalls such as high payout ratios and low valuation traps, often found in small-cap stocks with volatile earnings [9]. Group 6: Investment Strategy - A "dividend + multi-factor" strategy is recommended, focusing on stable, sustainable dividend-paying companies, particularly state-owned enterprises and those with strong cash flow [10]. - In bear and volatile markets, high dividends provide stable cash flow and reduce drawdowns, while in bull markets, they offer a safety cushion [11][12]. Group 7: Long-term Value of Dividend Assets - The allocation of dividend assets is supported by a combination of policy, funding, and fundamental factors, emphasizing their role in achieving long-term stable growth rather than short-term speculation [13]. - Recommended allocation strategies include core positions in broad dividend indices, satellite positions in actively managed products, and cross-border investments in high-yield Hong Kong stocks [15].
机构:红利资产收益相对较高且稳定,备受市场关注,红利低波100ETF(159307)近2周规模、份额增长显著
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-07-24 06:56
Core Viewpoint - The low volatility dividend strategy is gaining traction among investors due to its relatively high and stable returns in a low-interest-rate environment, making it an attractive investment opportunity [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 24, 2025, the CSI Low Volatility Dividend 100 Index (930955) increased by 0.04%, with notable gains from constituent stocks such as Zhongshan Public Utilities (000685) up 4.26% and Yuyuan Holdings (600655) up 3.64% [3]. - The Low Volatility Dividend 100 ETF (159307) has seen a weekly increase of 2.51% as of July 23, 2025 [3]. - The ETF's trading volume was 22.45 million yuan with a turnover rate of 2.12% [3]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Growth - The Low Volatility Dividend 100 ETF experienced a significant scale increase of 41.67 million yuan over the past two weeks, ranking second among comparable funds [4]. - The ETF's share count grew by 23 million shares in the same period, also ranking second among comparable funds [4]. - The ETF has attracted a total of 18.28 million yuan in net inflows over the last ten trading days [4]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - The Low Volatility Dividend 100 ETF achieved a net value increase of 21.69% over the past year, ranking first among comparable funds [5]. - The ETF's maximum drawdown this year was 6.18%, indicating lower risk compared to its benchmark [5]. - The ETF's Sharpe ratio was 1.13 as of July 18, 2025, ranking it first among comparable funds, indicating high returns for the level of risk taken [5]. Group 4: Fee Structure and Tracking Accuracy - The management fee for the Low Volatility Dividend 100 ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, both of which are the lowest among comparable funds [6]. - The ETF has a tracking error of 0.067% over the past month, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [6]. Group 5: Index Composition - The CSI Low Volatility Dividend 100 Index includes 100 stocks characterized by high liquidity, consistent dividends, high dividend yields, and low volatility [6]. - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 20.14% of the total index weight, including companies like Jizhong Energy (000937) and Shanxi Coking Coal (000983) [6].