2025.07. 28 本文字数：1892，阅读时长大约3分钟 围绕时下最热门的AI Agent，启明创投预测，未来一到两年，Agent形态将从"工具辅助"走向"任务承 接"，首批真正意义上的"AI员工"将进入企业，广泛参与客户服务、销售、运营、研发等核心流程，不 再仅作为助手存在，而是具备协同作业、主动反馈、承担OKR等能力，推动从成本工具向价值创造转 变。 作者 | 第一财经 刘晓洁 2025年上半年，AI初创企业吸纳了全球53%的风险投资资金，也就是说，在诸多投资细分领域里，AI 一个领域就占了全球一半的投资。这是7月28日上午在WAIC期间的启明创投·创业与投资论坛上，启明 创投主管合伙人周志峰公布的数字。 AGI产业又到了一个特别的产业发展的时间点。一方面技术还在往上快速增长，没有看到明显的天花 板。同时，由于技术的性能、成本等诸多方面变得更加可用，能够看到大规模的应用已开始落地。 从投资人角度，周志峰认为，做AI投资依然是累的，因为这是最热门的行业。还有越来越多的投资人用 真金白银投票，投入到AI基础模型公司中，这意味着，大模型依然在高速增长。 2024年启明创投发布了AI十大展望，包括Multi ...

Core Insights - The World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) in Shanghai showcased MiniMax's first full-stack general AI agent, MiniMax Agent, which aims to revolutionize AI productivity from "liberating the brain" to "liberating the hands" [1] - MiniMax's CEO, Yan Junjie, emphasized that AI is becoming a stronger productivity and creativity tool, demonstrating significant reductions in production time and costs for creative tasks [1][2] Company Developments - MiniMax Agent, referred to internally as "Max," can produce various deliverables such as analysis reports, code files, and web games, effectively replacing a professional's workload for up to a week [2] - The agent has undergone 12 functional updates since its launch, showcasing rapid iteration and optimization capabilities [2] - MiniMax plans to offer an enterprise version of the agent, aiming for full domestic production and exploring applications across various industries [3] Technological Innovations - The agent features a layered collaborative framework, long-term memory, and mixed model strategies to ensure optimal output quality [2] - Real-world applications demonstrated at WAIC include a concert seat selection system developed in 30 minutes, a real-time tracking system for 50 global tech stocks, and a complete e-commerce site for selling crystal bracelets [3] Market Positioning - MiniMax Agent distinguishes itself from competitors by offering both front-end capabilities and complex back-end functionalities, making it suitable for real-time data handling and payment processing [2] - The agent has enabled developers to create web games and business applications rapidly, enhancing development efficiency for individual developers and small teams [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance of the Sci-Tech Innovation AI ETF (科创AIETF), which has shown significant growth and liquidity in recent weeks, with a net inflow of 2.60 billion yuan and a total scale reaching 52.64 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception [4][5][6] - The Sci-Tech Innovation AI ETF has achieved a 6-month net value increase of 11.38%, ranking first among comparable funds, and has a historical holding period profitability probability of 100% [5][6] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Sci-Tech Innovation AI Index account for 68.03% of the index, indicating a concentrated investment in key players within the AI sector [6][7] Group 2 - Domestic AI agents are rapidly emerging, driving the development of AI programming platforms, with companies like ByteDance, Tencent, and Alibaba launching various platforms tailored to different development needs [4] - The trading volume of the Sci-Tech Innovation AI ETF has been robust, with an average daily transaction of 3.34 billion yuan over the past week, ranking first among comparable funds [4] - The management fee for the Sci-Tech Innovation AI ETF is relatively low at 0.50%, which may attract more investors looking for cost-effective investment options [5]

投资人仍在用真金白银投入到AI基础模型公司中，大模型依然在高速增长。 在此次大会上，启明创投也更新发布了2025年AI的十大展望，预测接下来12至24个月AI行业即将产生的一些趋势，包括多模态、AI Agent、AI应用、具身智 能等方面。 启明创投认为，未来一到两年，200万Token的上下文窗口将成为顶级AI模型的标配。围绕更大上下文窗口展开的更精细、更智能的上下文工程，会成为推 动AI模型及应用发展的核心驱动力之一。"从供给侧技术来看，包括新的注意力机制等模型架构的创新，做较长的上下文窗口变得越来越可能了。"周志峰补 充。 2025年上半年，AI初创企业吸纳了全球53%的风险投资资金，也就是说，在诸多投资细分领域里，AI一个领域就占了全球一半的投资。这是7月28日上午在 WAIC期间的启明创投·创业与投资论坛上，启明创投主管合伙人周志峰公布的数字。 AGI产业又到了一个特别的产业发展的时间点。一方面技术还在往上快速增长，没有看到明显的天花板。同时，由于技术的性能、成本等诸多方面变得更加 可用，能够看到大规模的应用已开始落地。 从投资人角度，周志峰认为，做AI投资依然是累的，因为这是最热门的行业。还有越来 ...

与楼上的场馆，喧闹的人流、令人眩目的机器人表演，以及拥挤得水泄不通的相比，世博展览馆地下一层FUTURE TECH展厅，没有灯带，也没有机器人翻 跟头以及目眩的灯光秀，显得冷清了一些。 "这里（地下展区）更加脚踏实地。"一位具身智能领域资深从业者说，在看了一圈具身智能场馆之后，他用"噪声很大"形容。此时，二楼具身智能场馆上， 宇树机器人的搏斗吸引到了现场最多的目光。 "这一个个小展台，你别看它不起眼，但以后可能就长大了。"常垒资本合伙人石矛已经在地下一层来回丈量了许久，他如数家珍地盘点着看过的AI项目。 此时，在展馆的"开放麦"区，创业者拿着话筒，就着画满了技术曲线的PPT，向受众讲述一个个项目背后的思考和故事。几步之遥的投资洽谈区，坐着穿着 印有公司logo和企业文化的创业者与西装革履的投资人。 "这一波AI，是年轻人的时代。"一位头部LP基金资深投资人告诉我，他们没有包袱，从创业之初，就是以AI原生的思维思考，他每天都会阅读大量论文， 寻找原始创新的萌芽。 这一波AI浪潮里，一些地方的地壳正在鼓起，形成小鼓包，这些鼓起的地方，未来可能会成为一个个山头——"未来的机会，可能在三个方面，第一是突破 当前算法瓶 ...

Core Viewpoint - Qiming Venture Partners is recognized as one of the earliest and most comprehensive investment institutions in the AI sector in China, having invested in over 100 AI projects, covering the entire AI industry chain and promoting the rise of several benchmark enterprises in the field [2]. Group 1: AI Models - In the next 12-24 months, a context window of 2 million tokens will become standard for top AI models, with more refined and intelligent context engineering driving the development of AI models and applications [4]. - A universal video model is expected to emerge within 12-24 months, capable of handling generation, reasoning, and task understanding in video modalities, thus innovating video content generation and interaction [6]. Group 2: AI Agents - In the next 12-24 months, the form of AI agents will transition from "tool assistance" to "task undertaking," with the first true "AI employees" entering enterprises, participating widely in core processes such as customer service, sales, operations, and R&D, thus shifting from cost tools to value creation [8]. - Multi-modal agents will increasingly become practical, integrating visual, auditory, and sensor inputs to perform complex reasoning, tool invocation, and task execution, achieving breakthroughs in industries such as healthcare, finance, and law [9]. Group 3: AI Infrastructure - In the AI chip sector, more "nationally established" and "nationally produced" GPUs will begin mass delivery, while innovative new-generation AI cloud chips focusing on 3D DRAM stacking and integrated computing will emerge in the market [11]. - In the next 12-24 months, token consumption will increase by 1 to 2 orders of magnitude, with cluster inference optimization, terminal inference optimization, and soft-hard collaborative inference optimization becoming core technologies for reducing token costs on the AI infrastructure side [12]. Group 4: AI Applications - The paradigm shift in AI interaction will accelerate in the next two years, driven by a decrease in user reliance on mobile screens and the rising importance of natural interaction methods like voice, leading to the birth of AI-native super applications [14]. - The potential for AI applications in vertical scenarios is immense, with more startups leveraging industry insights to deeply engage in niche areas and rapidly achieve product-market fit, adopting a "Go Narrow and Deep" strategy to differentiate from larger companies [15]. - The AI BPO (Business Process Outsourcing) model is expected to achieve commercial breakthroughs in the next 12-24 months, transitioning from "delivery tools" to "delivery results," and expanding rapidly in standardized industries such as finance, customer service, marketing, and e-commerce through a "pay-per-result" approach [15]. Group 5: Embodied Intelligence - Embodied intelligent robots will first achieve large-scale deployment in scenarios such as picking, transporting, and assembling, accumulating a wealth of first-person perspective data and tactile operation data, thereby constructing a closed-loop flywheel of "model - ontology - scene data," which will drive model capability iteration and ultimately promote the large-scale landing of general-purpose robots [17].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1][63]. Core Insights - The AI Agent framework consists of a Coding model and an AI programming platform, which work together to lower development barriers and enhance efficiency [3][4]. - Claude Code is a significant advancement in the Agent space, providing features such as demand understanding, global codebase awareness, automated debugging, and workflow automation [3][29]. - Domestic Coding models like Kimi K2 and Qwen Coder are emerging as strong contenders in the market, showcasing advanced coding capabilities [3][31][35]. - Major domestic AI programming platforms include ByteDance, Tencent, and Alibaba, each focusing on different aspects of development [3][43][45][49]. Summary by Sections AI Agent Framework: Coding Model + AI Programming Platform - The integration of a strong Coding model with an AI programming platform is essential for the effective application of AI Agents [6][10]. - AI IDEs enhance traditional IDE functionalities by incorporating AI capabilities, thus improving the development process [7][12]. Claude Code: Driving Agents into a New Phase - Claude Code has attracted 115,000 developers and processed 195 million lines of code within a week of its release [25]. - It excels in understanding requirements and planning, providing a comprehensive awareness of project structures, and automating debugging and workflow processes [29][30]. Domestic Coding Models: Kimi K2 and Qwen Coder Rise - Kimi K2 is recognized for its strong coding capabilities and performance in autonomous programming and tool usage [33][34]. - Qwen3-2507 is a non-inferential model that has achieved high scores in various benchmarks, indicating its competitive edge [35][37]. - Qwen3-Coder, with its MoE architecture, supports extensive training data and can handle complex tasks effectively [41][42]. Domestic AI Programming Platforms: ByteDance, Tencent, and Alibaba - ByteDance focuses on full-stack development capabilities with its upgraded Trae 2.0 [43][44]. - Tencent's Codebuddy is designed as an all-in-one AI IDE platform for product development [45][47]. - Alibaba's Qwen Code is tailored to work with Qwen3-Coder, enhancing its parsing and tool support capabilities [49]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the domestic AI Agent-related industry chain for potential investment opportunities [52].

Core Viewpoint - The company has launched two core open-source products, Coze Studio and Coze Loop, as part of its AI Agent development platform, aiming to enhance developer engagement and competition in the open-source space [4][6][39]. Group 1: Product Launch and Features - The open-source products have collectively garnered 9.5K stars on GitHub, indicating significant interest in the AI agent development field [7]. - Coze Studio is a no-code development platform that allows users to create functional AI agents through a visual interface, making it accessible even for those without coding skills [10][11]. - Coze Loop serves as a comprehensive lifecycle management tool for AI agents, facilitating development, evaluation, observation, and optimization [28][34]. Group 2: Technical Architecture and Performance - The platform's backend is built on Golang, while the frontend utilizes React and TypeScript, ensuring a robust and efficient architecture [19][21]. - The microservices architecture allows for clear responsibilities and modular development, enhancing maintainability and collaboration within the open-source community [22]. - The platform supports containerized deployment, simplifying the setup process for developers [23]. Group 3: Open Source Strategy and Community Engagement - The decision to open-source these products under the Apache 2.0 license reflects the company's commitment to fostering a developer-friendly ecosystem, allowing for commercial use without licensing fees [43][45]. - By opening up its technology, the company aims to attract a larger developer community to contribute to the ecosystem, enhancing product evolution through collaborative efforts [54][55]. - The open-source initiative is seen as a strategic move to establish a new standard in the AI agent development space, positioning the company as a leader in this emerging market [44][58].

Group 1 - The establishment of the Ningbo Embodied Intelligence Industrial Base marks a significant step towards the operational phase, with a planned annual production of 1,000 embodied intelligent robots [2] - Major internet companies, including JD.com, Meituan, Ant Group, Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu, are actively investing in the embodied intelligence sector through equity investments, self-research, and business collaborations [2] - The investment activities by JD.com are expected to inject new vitality into the embodied intelligence industry and raise market expectations for the industrialization of this sector [2] Group 2 - The World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) highlighted the transition from generative large models to AI Agents and Agentic AI, indicating the onset of the intelligent agent era [3] - Analysts predict that 2025 will be a pivotal year for the platformization of AI Agent capabilities, with a shift from "content generation" to "process agency" [3] Group 3 - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation are revising the Price Law for the first time since its implementation in 1998, aiming to curb destructive low-price competition [4] - The revision of the Price Law is expected to establish new rules for market behavior in the digital economy era [4] Group 4 - The solid-state battery sector is experiencing accelerated industrialization, with multiple companies disclosing advancements in this technology [4] - Experts anticipate that the commercialization process of solid-state batteries will continue to accelerate, with a focus on who can achieve full solid-state battery applications in vehicles [4][5] Group 5 - Under strong national policy support, companies across the solid-state battery supply chain are releasing technical solutions, driven by demand from emerging applications like low-altitude economy and robotics [5] - The initial solid-state battery material systems are nearing mass production requirements, with a critical period expected in the second half of 2025 for solid-state battery equipment and material companies [5]

Macro News - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, has initiated measures to gradually implement free preschool education, emphasizing the need for local governments to refine work plans and ensure timely funding allocation [4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is soliciting public opinions on the revised Corporate Governance Code, which aims to enhance the supervision of directors and senior management, and improve incentive and restraint mechanisms [5][6] - The Ministry of Finance reported that in the first half of 2025, the national general public budget expenditure reached 14,127.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, while revenue decreased by 0.3% to 11,556.6 billion yuan [6] - The National Bureau of Statistics indicated that in June, the profit decline of industrial enterprises above designated size narrowed compared to May, with rapid profit growth in new momentum industries like equipment manufacturing [6] Industry News - The Insurance Association announced that the current standard interest rate for ordinary life insurance products is 1.99%, leading major life insurance companies to adjust their rates downwards [9] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, along with ten other departments, released a plan to promote agricultural product consumption, focusing on optimizing supply, innovating circulation, and activating market demand [9] - The China Pesticide Industry Association has launched a three-year campaign to address issues like hidden additives and illegal production in the pesticide industry, aiming to curb disorderly competition [9] - The Chinese government has proposed the establishment of a World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization, with Shanghai as a potential headquarters [10] - The Shanghai land auction set a new record for residential land prices, with a floor price of 200,257 yuan per square meter [11] Company News - China Duty Free Group reported a total revenue of 28.151 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 9.96%, with net profit down 20.81% to 2.6 billion yuan [14] - Huayou Cobalt announced plans to acquire a 49% stake in Wuhan Junheng Technology through a combination of stock issuance and cash payment, marking a significant asset restructuring [14] - Several companies, including *ST Muban and Taiyuan Heavy Industry, received notices from the CSRC regarding investigations into alleged financial misconduct and information disclosure violations [16][17] - Shijiazhuang Railway announced a cooperation agreement with the Guangzhou Municipal Government for the Guangzhou East Station renovation project, with a total investment of approximately 16.66 billion yuan [12]