韩国央行：将密切关注国内外政策环境的变化，将评估对通胀和金融稳定的影响。未来经济增长面临重 大不确定性，主要源于与美国的贸易谈判进展。国内需求复苏的步伐存在重大不确定性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The liquid paraffin market in China is expected to grow from approximately 1.834 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.039 billion yuan in 2025, driven by increasing demand in skincare, cosmetics, lubricants, and preservatives, alongside a shift towards greener and more specialized products due to stricter environmental regulations and evolving consumer preferences [1][17]. Industry Overview - Liquid paraffin, also known as white oil, is derived from kerosene or diesel fractions and is characterized by its chemical stability and inertness, making it essential in various applications such as lubricants, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, and food packaging [3][17]. - The industry is witnessing a transition towards green, high-end, and specialized products, with technological innovations and market demands driving growth [1][17]. Market Size and Growth - The Chinese liquid paraffin market is projected to reach approximately 1.834 billion yuan in 2024, with an expected increase to 2.039 billion yuan in 2025 [1][17]. - The skincare industry is a significant growth driver, with the market size for skincare products in China estimated at around 295.9 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.01% [14]. Import and Export Dynamics - In 2024, China imported 138,000 tons of liquid paraffin and heavy liquid paraffin, marking a year-on-year increase of 32.83%, with an import value of 1 billion yuan, up 23.93% [19]. - Exports of liquid paraffin and heavy liquid paraffin saw a significant decline, with only 750 tons exported in 2024, a drop of 93.12% year-on-year, attributed to weak international demand and increased trade barriers [19]. Industry Policies - The Chinese government is focusing on sustainable development in the paraffin industry, implementing policies to reduce environmental pollution and enhance resource efficiency [8]. - Recent guidelines aim to support the digital transformation of the petrochemical industry, promoting advanced technologies and improving management levels [8]. Industry Chain Structure - The liquid paraffin industry chain consists of upstream raw materials (primarily petroleum), midstream processing (distillation and cracking), and downstream applications in pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and industrial products [11][13]. Key Companies - Major players in the liquid paraffin market include China Petroleum, China Petrochemical, and various regional refineries such as Fushun Petrochemical and Daqing Petrochemical, which are involved in the production and supply of liquid paraffin [22][24][25][27].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing increase in caustic soda futures prices, driven by seasonal inventory depletion and questions regarding supply pressures in the second half of the year [1] - The market anticipates an oversupply of alumina, raising concerns about whether demand can continue to grow in the future [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 （2）7月9日泰国合艾原料市场报价：白片无报价，烟片64.79，-0.41； 胶水54.3，-0.2；杯胶47.3，-0.2。 （3）7月8日，乘联分会发布的最新数据显示，今年6月，全国乘用车市场 零售208.4万辆，同比增长18.1%，环比增长7.6%。今年上半年，乘用车市 场累计零售1,090.1万辆，同比增长10.8%。乘联分会秘书长指出，前几年 国内车市零售呈现"前低后高"的走势，今年6月零售较2022年6月194万 的最高水平增长7%。这意味着，自今年5月后，乘用车市场再现"超强增 长"。 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-7-10 棕油继续偏强运行，关注MPOB报告 油脂：昨日棕油继续偏强运行，关注MPOB报告 蛋⽩粕：多空交织，盘面延续区间运行 ⽟⽶/淀粉：现货局部走弱，期价低位震荡 ⽣猪：情绪冷却，猪价小幅回调 橡㬵：区间震荡走势延续 合成橡㬵：暂时企稳运行 纸浆：期货转暖未拉动现货氛围 棉花：棉价震荡运行 ⽩糖：糖价小幅上涨 原⽊：短期交割品流通冲击，现货偏弱运行 【异动品种】 天然橡㬵观点：区间震荡⾛势延续 信息： （1）青岛保税区人民币 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold futures are experiencing sideways trading due to a lack of clear direction, influenced by mixed factors including delayed tariff imposition by the U.S. and a strengthening dollar, while geopolitical tensions and uncertainties continue to provide support [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Current gold prices are maintaining around $3,320 per ounce, with a cumulative decline of nearly 1% for the week [1] - The Trump administration's decision to postpone the so-called "reciprocal" tariffs until August 1 has weakened some safe-haven demand, leading to an increase in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, which competes with gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [1] Group 2: Support Factors - Despite the competitive pressures from the dollar and bond yields, new tariff threats and ongoing trade uncertainties continue to provide some support for gold prices [1] - Central banks around the world are persistently purchasing gold, which helps to stabilize the bottom for gold prices [1]

Group 1 - The CEO of Saudi Aramco expects global oil demand to increase by 1.2 to 1.3 million barrels per day this year [1]

Core Insights - The EIA reported that U.S. crude oil production for the week ending July 4 was 18.388 million barrels per day, a decrease from the previous value of 19.803 million barrels per day [1] Group 1 - U.S. crude oil production has declined by approximately 1.415 million barrels per day compared to the previous week [1]

美国至7月4日当周EIA车用汽油总产量引伸需求数据 1020.16万桶/日，前值942.34万桶/日。 ...

美国至7月4日当周EIA蒸馏燃油产量引伸需求数据 525.29万桶/日，前值539.63万桶/日。 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a fixed - income review report titled "Why is the Divergence Trend between CPI and PPI Intensifying? - Review of June Price Data" dated July 9, 2025 [1][2] - The chief analyst is Yan Ziqi, and the analyst is Hong Ziyan [2] Group 2: Data Observation CPI Data - In June, CPI was up 0.1% year - on - year, rising 0.2 pct from the previous month and moving from negative to positive. The month - on - month CPI decreased by 0.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 pct from the previous month and the value being at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [2] - Core CPI continued to rise, indicating a possible demand recovery, but it was uneven. The year - on - year increase in CPI was stronger than that of core CPI mainly due to the reduced drag from the energy item. After removing the impact of food and energy, core inflation continued to rise year - on - year, reflecting a demand recovery. However, the recovery of consumer demand was mainly supported by sub - items such as transportation, communication, rent, water and electricity, and household appliances, while CPI in areas such as clothing, education, tourism, and household services decreased month - on - month [3] - Service CPI continued to grow, and consumer goods CPI continued to recover. The demand structure continued to shift from food to consumption and services. The decline in consumer CPI narrowed, and service CPI had been growing for 5 months, with the year - on - year value remaining at 0.5% as in the previous month. Food prices remained stable, and the increase in vegetable prices led to a narrowing of the decline in food CPI [3] PPI Data - The month - on - month PPI of consumer goods weakened. The reason was that during the subsidy gap period, the path for demand to spread from policy - driven areas to other consumer goods areas slowed down compared with the previous month. Durable consumer goods declined month - on - month in June [4] - External demand suppressed the prices of the processing industry, while the input factor of international crude oil drove the price recovery of upstream industries, and PPI entered a weak equilibrium state. In June, the decline in external demand orders in the PMI indicated a weakening of external demand, leading to a month - on - month decline in the PPI of the processing industry. High temperatures restricted infrastructure construction, resulting in demand lagging behind material supply. The decline in coal prices due to new energy substitution and over - capacity continued to reduce PPI prices, but the increase in international crude oil prices repaired the drag on domestic related industries, and deflation in upstream industries such as mining and raw material industries eased [4] Group 3: In - depth Perspective From the Perspective of Resident Income - Since March, the year - on - year decline in rent has narrowed to - 0.1% and remained unchanged for 4 consecutive months. The stable and flat trend of rent may indicate that the income improvement trend has stalled, and income recovery is the core driving force for the recovery of total demand and the return of price levels to positive [6] From the Perspective of Corporate Activity - In June, the year - on - year price of pork dropped to - 8.5%, and the month - on - month price dropped to - 1.2%. The decline in pork prices was mainly due to oversupply and also reflected a contraction in pork demand in June, suggesting a possible structural decline in factory labor demand. The continuous squeeze on corporate profits in previous months still had a lagging impact on the economy, and the significant decline in the PMI of small enterprises and employment in the manufacturing and service industries in June confirmed the contraction in pork demand. The month - on - month decline in liquor prices was 0.3%, the same as the average in the past 5 years, implying that the business activity of small enterprises remained weak [6] From the Perspective of Corporate Price Transmission - The increase in household appliance prices in June may be an illusion during the policy window period. The month - on - month increase in household appliance CPI was likely due to manufacturers adjusting prices during the subsidy gap period. The price model of leading brands was to "raise the marked price and offset with subsidies" to achieve a nominal price increase. In June, the subsidy amount in many places was exhausted, leading to a decrease in the subsidy part and an increase in the final product price. The price increase during the subsidy gap period may be a game behavior to transfer inventory pressure [7] High - frequency Data - International oil prices showed a downward trend, and PPI would face downward pressure in the next stage. The marginal price of Nanhua industrial products began to rise, but the price of rebar continued to decline. Although the third batch of 300 billion dual - purpose funds had been issued, high - temperature weather restricted demand release and limited physical construction. Glass prices continued to decline, indicating no improvement in the real estate market [7] Group 4: Future Outlook CPI Outlook - Currently, CPI has achieved an upward breakthrough with a marginal reduction in external interference items, but the demand recovery is uneven, and the recovery trend needs to be consolidated. High - frequency data shows that international oil prices have started to decline, and with the easing of local geopolitical conflicts, it is highly likely that the oil price center will shift downward in July, which may drive next month's CPI down. In July, the next batch of fiscal funds will start to be in place, and the household appliance sub - item of CPI may decline. Due to the slowdown in the transmission to other industries caused by the subsidy gap and the crowding - out of consumption in other areas this month, the price recovery in other areas next month still needs to be observed. From the perspective of corporate activities, the continuous profit compression pattern has led to a decline in the prosperity of small enterprises and employment, and the consumption demand contributed by the income side is still not optimistic [7] PPI Outlook - The supply - side dilemma of PPI has not changed. The "rush - to - export" effect of external demand is fading, and although the pull from domestic demand has slowed down, it may rebound in July, maintaining the current weak equilibrium. On the supply side, the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and the decline in international oil prices in July may lead to a decline in PPI prices. In terms of external demand, there are still challenges, and exports are likely to decline in the second half of the year, with trade cooling down, which is difficult to significantly drive up total demand. In terms of domestic demand, after the next batch of subsidy funds is in place in July, on the one hand, it will directly improve corporate profits, and on the other hand, the uneven pattern of CPI demand recovery may improve, and the chain of CPI pulling PPI will restart, and the PPI of consumer goods may continue to rise. However, overall, the upward repair amplitude may be relatively limited [8]