Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway's second-quarter earnings report highlighted concerns regarding tariffs, indicating potential adverse effects on the economy and the company's operations [2][3][10]. Company Performance - Berkshire Hathaway reported strong operating results for Q2, but investors were disappointed by the lack of stock repurchases [2]. - The company has a diverse portfolio, including nearly $300 billion in equities, significant insurance and energy assets, and a major railroad, providing strong visibility into the broader economy [11]. Tariff Concerns - The report specifically mentioned President Trump's tariffs, with Buffett previously describing tariffs as "an act of war" and a tax on goods [3][6]. - Current tariff rates are significant, with imports facing rates of 15% to 40%, which could impact inflation and business operations [7][12]. - The uncertainty surrounding changing tariff rates is causing businesses to pause hiring and capital expenditures, potentially leading to adverse consequences for Berkshire's operations [8][9]. Economic Implications - While inflation has not surged overall, it is beginning to appear in sectors affected by tariffs, such as apparel and appliances [13]. - There are concerns that prolonged uncertainty from tariffs could stall economic growth and lead to disinflation, complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to manage interest rates [14]. - The market has been able to absorb tariff news so far, but increasing data may force a reevaluation of the situation [15].

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan decided to maintain the current interest rate at 0.5% despite rising inflation, with no indication of a near-term rate hike [1][2] - Japan's consumer price index (excluding fresh food) rose by 3.3% year-on-year in June, exceeding the Bank of Japan's inflation target of 2% for over three years [1][2] - Major financial institutions in Japan are calling for a rate hike in September or October, citing the need to address the widening interest rate differential with the US and Eurozone [1][2] Group 2 - Despite high inflation, the Bank of Japan believes the underlying inflation rate has not reached 2%, and consumer activity has been declining since March [2][3] - Japan's GDP growth was -0.2% in Q1 and stagnant in Q2, indicating that inflation is not a sign of economic strength but rather a result of yen depreciation and labor shortages [3][4] - Political instability following the recent upper house elections complicates the situation, making it difficult for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates [4][5] Group 3 - The US economy grew by 3.0% in Q2, but this growth is seen as temporary, and potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could impact Japan's interest rate decisions [5][6] - If the US economy remains strong, it could lead to further yen depreciation and increased domestic prices in Japan, potentially creating an opportunity for the Bank of Japan to raise rates [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The fastest depreciating asset in China over the next five years is not cash, but rather real estate, automobiles, luxury goods, and university degrees due to various economic factors and changing consumer behavior [1][3][5]. Group 1: Economic Context - As of June, the broad money supply (M2) in China reached 330.29 trillion yuan, growing by 8.3% year-on-year, indicating severe monetary overexpansion [1]. - The current economic growth rate has significantly slowed, reducing the likelihood of hyperinflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a slight deflation of -0.1% in the first half of 2025 [3]. Group 2: Depreciating Assets - **Real Estate**: Since 2022, housing prices have been in a long-term adjustment phase, with an average decline of 30% from historical highs, and some cities experiencing declines over 60% [5][7]. - **Automobiles**: A price war among domestic and foreign car brands is leading to significant depreciation, with mid-range cars dropping by 20,000 to 30,000 yuan and luxury brands seeing reductions of nearly 100,000 yuan [9]. - **Luxury Goods**: The global luxury goods market has seen a decrease of 50 million consumers, with 65.9% of consumers reducing purchases due to perceived low value for money, leading to price cuts from brands like Gucci and Burberry [11]. - **University Degrees**: The rapid increase in university enrollment has led to a devaluation of degrees, as employers now prioritize experience over academic qualifications, resulting in a surplus of graduates in the job market [13].

如何界定滞胀？我们选取了2个经济指标和4个通胀指标，综合考量通胀上行和经济下行区间，我们将 1960 年来的滞胀期锁定为1973–1976、1979–1982、 1988–1991、2007–2008、2011–2012、2021–2023 六段，宏观大背景对应了两次石油危机、海湾战争、次贷危机、欧债危机与疫情冲击。 滞胀均起于供给冲击，延续于非经济因素、货币政策框架不完善与工资管控不及时等。第一轮滞胀的供给冲击分为三个阶段，分别为粮价冲击、油价冲击 和工资价格冲击。时任美联储主席伯恩斯在货币政策实施方面缺乏连贯性，导致通胀预期高企，价格居高不下。第二轮滞胀的核心外因是伊朗革命推动的 油价上升。货币政策初期依旧缺乏连续性，直至沃尔克主席开始实施持续的高利率才压降住居民的通胀预期。第三轮滞胀核心外因是中东紧张的地缘关系 引发的油价上涨，但美联储当局认为居民的通胀预期并不顽固，供给冲击可持续性不强，所以美联储通过降息优先解决经济的"滞"。1960-1992年美苏的 军备战争也对通胀起到了一定的助长作用。第四轮滞胀核心成因是房地产泡沫破灭，初期的高油价起到了推波助澜的作用。金融市场剧烈震荡和信贷紧缩 使得企业投资、 ...

行情回顾： 国际黄金周四（8月7日）震荡收涨，开盘价3377.41美元/盎司，最高价3397.28美元/盎司，最低价3365.25美元/ 盎司，收盘价3390.07美元/盎司。 消息面： 地缘局势： 俄总统助理：俄美正在筹备两国元首会晤，目标是下周举行会晤。 普京：阿联酋是与特朗普会面的合适地点之一，不介意会见泽连斯基。 美国6月批发销售月率录得0.3%，高于市场预期0.1%，前值位-0.3%；美国至8月2日当周初请失业金人数录得 22.6万人，高于市场预期22.1万人，前值位21.8万人。 评论称，美国上周初请失业金人数小幅上升，暗示就业市场基本稳定，尽管就业岗位创造正在减弱，且失业人 员寻找新工作所需时间延长。最新的初请失业金人数数据显示，随着经济失去动力，雇主们尚未转向大规模裁 员，而是在通过自然减员来应对。这有助于在就业增长放缓的情况下将失业率保持在相对较低的水平。7月份 失业率为4.2%。在白宫打击移民的背景下，劳动力供应的下降也有助于避免失业率的上升。 纽约联储最新月度调查显示，消费者对美联储长期通胀管理的信心下降。数据显示，消费者对未来五年通胀率 的预期为2.9%，高于6月份调查的2.6%。短期 ...

纽约联邦储备银行7日发布的一份月度调查显示，今年7月，美国消费者对未来一年的通货膨胀预期升至 3.1%。 调查显示，受访者感知到的一年内失业概率上升0.4个百分点至14.4%。更多受访家庭表示获得信贷的难 度加大，且未来三个月无力偿还最低还款额的可能性有所上升。 消费者通胀预期的上升将强化那些希望暂时"按兵不动"的美联储官员立场。今年以来，美联储一直维持 联邦基金利率目标区间在4.25%至4.5%之间的水平不变。 报道称，除通胀数据外，美联储官员也在密切关注劳动力市场数据。近期美国招聘活动呈现急剧放缓迹 象，这或许将为美联储降息提供更多依据。 有华尔街策略师警告称，随着加征关税的影响逐步显现，美国经济正面临滞胀风险。在此背景下，投资 者需警惕高通胀与低增长并存的经济局面。 根据纽约联储发布的2025年7月《消费者预期调查》，受访者对未来三年的通胀预期维持在3%，对未来 五年的通胀预期升至2.9%，达到今年2月以来的最高水平。 资讯编辑：沈一冰 021-26093395 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 当天，美国劳工部发布的数据显示，截至7月26日当周，全 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of England announced a 25 basis point cut in the benchmark interest rate to 4% on August 7, following a divided vote among the Monetary Policy Committee members [1][8] - The decision to cut rates was made after a second round of voting, with 5 members in favor of the cut and 4 members preferring to maintain the current rate [8] - Following the announcement, the British pound rose approximately 30 points against the US dollar, trading at 1.3411 [1] Group 2 - The Bank of England stated that inflation has been easing over the past two and a half years, allowing for multiple rate cuts under a restrictive monetary policy stance [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June showed an increase of 3.6%, slightly above expectations, driven by rising food, energy, and service prices [4] - The committee anticipates a slight increase in CPI inflation, peaking at 4.0% in September before returning to the 2% target [6] Group 3 - The committee members who supported the rate cut argued that sufficient progress has been made in controlling inflation, while economic activity remains weak [8] - Conversely, those in favor of maintaining the rate expressed concerns about rising inflation risks and high inflation expectations among businesses and households [9] - The committee emphasized that the future pace of reducing policy restrictions will depend on the ongoing alleviation of potential deflationary pressures [9]

8月7日，英国央行宣布下调基准利率25个基点至4%。 货币政策委员会分歧巨大 决议公布后，英镑兑美元短线拉升约30点，现报1.3411。交易员减少对英国央行降息押注，预计今年将再降息17个基点。 为何降息？ 英国央行在声明中表示，在限制性货币政策立场的支持下，过去两年半通胀情况持续缓解，因此该央行已经多次下调利率。货币政策委员会仍专注于消除 任何现有或新出现的持续通胀压力，以在中期内可持续地使通胀率恢复到2%的目标。 数据显示，英国6月通胀水平（消费物价指数CPI）上涨3.6%，略高于5月报告和委员会6月会议时的预期。其中，食品、能源和服务价格都出现了上涨。 但英国央行强调，潜在的国内价格和工资压力的下降路径仍在继续，尽管程度不同。由于能源和食品价格的发展，2025年第二季度CPI升至3.5%。薪酬增 长速度仍然维持高位，但预计今年剩余时间仍将大幅放缓。近几个月来，服务业消费者价格通胀基本持平。委员会继续对宽松的薪酬压力将在多大程度上 影响消费者价格通胀保持警惕。 英国预计CPI通胀率将进一步小幅上升，并在9月达到4.0%的峰值，此后通胀率将回落至2%的目标。尽管如此，委员会仍然对通胀的暂时上升可能给工资 和 ...

8月7日，英国央行宣布下调基准利率25个基点至4%。 值得关注的是，英国央行货币政策委员会成员在本次议息会议上分歧巨大，在第一轮投票没有得出结果后，依靠第二轮投票，最终以5票赞成降息，4票维持利率不 变的结果，进行降息。 决议公布后，英镑兑美元短线拉升约30点，现报1.3411。交易员减少对英国央行降息押注，预计今年将再降息17个基点。 为何降息？ 英国央行在声明中表示，在限制性货币政策立场的支持下，过去两年半通胀情况持续缓解，因此该央行已经多次下调利率。货币政策委员会仍专注于消除任何现有 或新出现的持续通胀压力，以在中期内可持续地使通胀率恢复到2%的目标。 货币政策委员会分歧巨大 值得关注的是，英国央行本次降息的决定是经过两轮投票才得出结果。在首轮投票中，4名委员赞成降息25个基点，1名委员赞成降息50个基点，而另外4名委员希 望保持利率不变。在第二轮投票中，赞成降息50个基点的委员转为赞成降息25个基点，最终投票结果为5人赞成降息25个基点，4人赞成保持利率不变。英国央行 最终决定降息25个点。 赞成降息的委员们认为，在控制通胀方面已经取得了足够的进展，与此同时，经济活动仍然疲软。 赞成维持利率不变的委员 ...

北京时间周四19:00，英国央行将政策利率从4.25%降至4%，为本轮降息周期的第五次降息，符合市场预期。 英国央行表示，"随着利率下调，货币政策的限制性有所下降"，不再直接表示政策仍然是限制性的。英国央行重申，利率方面没有预先设定的路径。 停止降息进程对财政大臣里夫斯和首相斯塔默来说将是一个打击，他们一直在努力实现对选民的承诺，加快英国缓慢的经济增长。 "这是一个非常平衡的决定，"贝利在一份书面声明中说。"利率仍处于下降轨道上，但未来的任何降息都需要逐步和谨慎地进行。" 货币政策委员会表示，通胀上行风险"自5月以来略有走高"，并特别指出食品费用上涨。官员们现在预计9月份通胀率将达到4%，高于此前预测的3.7%的峰 值，该小组对第二轮影响"保持警惕"。 九位决策者中有四位因担心高通胀而寻求维持借贷成本不变。由于难以达成一致，英国货币政策委员会不得不在其历史上首次举行两次利率投票。 由于货币政策委员会在如何应对通货膨胀方面存在分歧，英国央行预测通货膨胀率很快将是其2%目标的两倍，而且最近失业情况恶化，行长贝利和四位同 事支持将利率从4.25%降至4%。 支持维持利率不变的四名成员包括负责货币政策的副行长伦巴德利 ...