21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道 随着欧佩克+增产计划引发供应过剩担忧，国际油价的暴跌比预期更为猛烈。 5月5日，布伦特原油期货下跌1.7%，收于每桶60.23美元，盘中一度跌破60美元/桶关口。美国原油期货 下跌2%，收于每桶57.13美元，均创下2021年2月以来新低。5月6日，国际油价从低位有所反弹。 据央视新闻报道，石油输出国组织（欧佩克）5月3日发表声明说，沙特、俄罗斯等8个欧佩克和非欧佩 克产油国决定自今年6月起日均增产41.1万桶。这将是上述国家连续第二个月以高于预期的幅度增产石 油。 建信期货能源化工高级研究员李捷对21世纪经济报道记者表示，低油价背景下，部分成员国超额生产引 发沙特不满，欧佩克+内部开始出现分裂迹象。沙特增加原油产量，一方面是借机打压产量持续超过配 额的欧佩克+成员国；另一方面，在特朗普政府的持续施压下，沙特也有政治上的考量。美国总统特朗 普将出访中东，军售以及能源领域预计将成为重点谈判领域，后期沙特不排除继续配合美国增加原油产 量。 几年前的震惊全球的负油价并不算遥远的记忆，随着欧佩克+减产联盟出现裂缝，市场不禁思索：价格 战会再度打响吗？国际油价会在熊市的道路上走多远？ ...

在OPEC+上周末决定6月份大幅增产后，高盛一个月内第三次下调了其油价预测。 在上周六的一次线上会议中，以沙特和俄罗斯为首的OPEC+主要产油国同意将日均产量提高41.1万桶，几乎是原计划增产量 的三倍，目的是惩罚像哈萨克斯坦这样长期违反该联盟配额规定的国家。 OPEC+在5月份已经实施了类似举措，标志着该联盟从捍卫油价的努力中急剧转向，现在看来这明显是一场针对美国页岩油 生产商以及哈萨克斯坦等各个超额生产的OPEC+成员国的价格战。 高盛的分析师现在预计，布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶60美元，低于此前预测的每桶63美元；美国基准WTI原油在2025 年的平均价格下调至56美元，低于此前预期的每桶59美元。 就明年而言，布伦特原油的平均价格预计为每桶56美元，低于此前的58美元，而WTI原油预计为每桶52美元，低于4月中旬 之前预测的每桶55美元。 | | | GS Forecasts ($/bbl) | | | Brent | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Brent Prior | Brent New | WTI New | WTI Prior | ...

期货热点追踪 马棕油期货六连跌，供应过剩担忧与需求不确定性，底部在哪里？ 相关链接 ...

Core Insights - Oil prices have rebounded after hitting a four-year low, raising questions about the sustainability of this increase following OPEC+'s announcement to increase production [1] Group 1: Oil Price Dynamics - Oil prices experienced a rebound after reaching a four-year low, indicating potential volatility in the market [1] - Concerns about oversupply have intensified, which could impact the future trajectory of oil prices [1] Group 2: OPEC+ Influence - OPEC+ has called for increased production, which may contribute to the current fluctuations in oil prices [1] - The decision by OPEC+ to increase output could exacerbate supply concerns, influencing market sentiment [1]

智通财经APP注意到，沙特主导的激进举措正在重塑全球石油市场格局——通过欧佩克+大幅增产，这一行动正迫使华尔街分析师纷纷下调油价预测、修正 供应过剩警告，并准备迎接更多变数。周一布伦特原油期货收跌2.7%至59.63美元/桶。 今年石油市场已因特朗普政府激进的贸易战而动荡不安，引发经济衰退担忧和风险偏好剧烈波动。与此同时，欧佩克+政策出现戏剧性转变，放弃此前每月 小幅渐进增产的计划，转而采取更为激进的措施恢复关闭的产能。这导致期货价格跌至四年低点，分析师们不得不随着形势变化反复修正预测模型。 沙特将此次欧佩克+增产与整顿屡次违反产量承诺的成员国联系起来，重点关注哈萨克斯坦和伊拉克。此外，利雅得方面可能还掺杂着地缘政治考量，既寻 求美国政府的善意，也可能意在遏制美国页岩油的崛起。 "我们仍坚持关键判断：尽管现货基本面相对紧张，但高闲置产能叠加高衰退风险使油价下行风险加剧，"高盛分析师Daan Struyven等人在报告中指出。他们 认为欧佩克+此举除针对成员国外，可能还旨在"从战略上制约美国页岩油供应"。 这家今年早些时候曾在一周内两次调整价格预测的投行表示，将在未来几天重新计算全球市场供需平衡，反映对供应增速 ...

Group 1 - Saudi Arabia has led a bold initiative to reshape the global oil market by aggressively increasing production within OPEC+, prompting Wall Street analysts to lower price forecasts and raising concerns about oversupply [1][3] - OPEC+ announced an additional supply of 411,000 barrels per day for June, with Saudi Arabia warning of potential further increases in the future [1][3] - Goldman Sachs has revised its Brent crude oil price forecasts down by $2 to $3 per barrel for the next two years, while Morgan Stanley has made a larger cut of $5 for this year's quarter [3][4] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley expects an increase in oversupply by 400,000 barrels per day, reaching a total of 1.1 million barrels per day in the second half of the year following OPEC+'s latest actions [4] - Analysts from Morgan Stanley interpret OPEC+'s communication as a potential signal for a comprehensive acceleration in the cancellation of production quotas [4] - ING emphasizes the importance of Saudi Arabia's tolerance for lower oil revenues and the complex global landscape, suggesting that OPEC+'s aggressive production increases could lead to an earlier arrival of oversupply, potentially resulting in a surplus throughout 2025 [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report predicts that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2506 will maintain a weak and volatile trend. The main reasons are the uncertainty of OPEC+'s production plan for June in the May meeting, which increases concerns about oversupply, and the reduction in oil demand due to power outages in Spain and Portugal, along with the release of strategic oil reserves by the Spanish government [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents - **Price and Trend** - The domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract closed down 1.15% at 488.5 yuan/barrel overnight on Monday [5]. - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of crude oil 2506 are all weak and volatile, with a reference view of weak operation [1][5]. - **Driving Logic** - The OPEC+ May meeting's uncertainty about the June production plan has led to concerns about increased oversupply pressure [5]. - Power outages in Spain and Portugal caused several refineries to close. Spain will release three - day strategic oil reserves due to about one - tenth of European oil consumption in these two countries, resulting in weakened demand and expected supply increase [5].

OPEC成员国公开拒绝执行补偿性减产，供应过剩担忧再起 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn 1 周度总结 原油： 【价格】过去一周国际原油市场呈现先扬后抑的震荡走势，政策与地缘的双向扰动主导本周油价。具体来看，期初OPEC+成员国提交 补偿性减产计划、美国为获取谈判筹码再次对伊朗实施制裁、特朗普放弃寻求解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，共同推动油价走高，WTI原油 主力合约冲高至64.87美元/桶。期末哈萨克斯坦能源部长公开拒绝执行OPEC+补偿性减产，且消息人士称OPEC+或于6月加速增产，市 场对供应过剩担忧再起，WTI迅速回落至62.76美元/桶，总体来看，全周呈现"急涨急跌"形态。 【供应】哈萨克斯坦能源部长公开表示，该国石油产量将优先考虑国家利益而非OPEC+配额，并强调其三大油田由外资控制无法实施 减产。数据显示，该国4月原油产量已达185万桶/日，较OPEC+配额（146.8万桶/日）超产26%。这立刻引发市场对OPEC+减产协议执 行力的信任危机。同时消息人士称部分OPEC+成员国拟在6月进一步扩大增产 ...

高盛：在贸易战之际，石油市场面临"大量供应过剩"。 ...