投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-11-25 俄乌和谈进展影响油⽓，进⼝减量预期 提振甲醇 地缘依旧主导油价波动。此前乌克兰总统泽连斯基的办公厅主任表 示，相关谈判在协调立场方面取得重大进展；美国国务卿也表示，周末在 日内瓦举行的会谈富有成效。市场权衡俄乌和平协议的达成前景。欧洲天 然气期货下跌3%，一年多来首次跌破每兆瓦时30欧元。欧洲防务类股同样 表现不佳。Kpler数据表明，10月下旬以来约有5000万桶俄罗斯原油被囤 积在海上，和平谈判的达成将有助于俄罗斯的原油和成品油供给正常化， 原油将重回疲弱的基本面。关注俄乌和谈的进一步进展。 板块逻辑： 化工周一日盘表现尚可，股市企稳回升对市场情绪有利。甲醇表现最 为亮眼。甲醇12月进口预估减量，其中非伊供应减量明显，部分检修、年 度合约供应结束以及增量发往印度等多重因素影响，集中影响了12月非伊 抵港表现；资讯机构也有报道，伊朗有甲醇企业停车。近两周，内地市场 的强势表现支撑进口货倒流加速，加之浙江另有新下游计划重启备货，共 同助力周一甲醇日盘上涨3%。其他液体化工周度整体累库，纯苯和苯乙烯 当前库存依 ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/11/21 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: Both 5-Year and 1-Year LPR remain unchanged Futures Prices: On Nov 20th, e ...

Market Overview - The futures market shows a bearish sentiment with 23 contracts rising and 56 contracts falling, indicating a concentration of trading activity in declining varieties [2] - The main contracts with significant price increases include pure benzene (+2.04%), eggs (+1.95%), and apples (+1.26%), while low-sulfur fuel oil (-3.5%) and coking coal (-3.17%) experienced notable declines [5][6] Capital Flow - The most significant capital inflows were observed in the CSI 500 (3.693 billion), CSI 300 (2.605 billion), and CSI 1000 (1.334 billion), indicating strong interest from major funds [9] - Conversely, the largest capital outflows were seen in gold futures (-2.804 billion) and ten-year government bonds (-0.852 billion), suggesting a withdrawal of funds from these assets [9] Position Changes - Notable increases in open interest were recorded for styrene (+14.53%) and silicon iron (+13.71%), indicating heightened trading activity and potential new capital inflows [10] - Significant decreases in open interest were noted for pulp (-12.52%) and ten-year bonds (-12.74%), suggesting a potential exit of major funds from these positions [10] Key Events - The Shanghai Gold Exchange emphasized the importance of risk control amid market volatility, urging members to maintain emergency plans and manage investor risks effectively [11] - Jiangsu Province issued a yellow alert for heavy pollution, although steel production in the affected areas remains unaffected for now [12] Commodity Insights - The lithium carbonate contract saw a slight increase of 0.84%, with market expectations of demand potentially softening in the coming months, suggesting caution in trading strategies [20] - Coking coal prices have been on a downward trend, with recent prices hitting a two-and-a-half-month low, reflecting cautious purchasing behavior from downstream industries [21] - The glass market is experiencing a dual weakness in supply and demand, with prices continuing to decline and no significant positive indicators in the fundamentals [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The energy and chemical industry will continue to fluctuate and consolidate, with olefins being weak and aromatics showing a slightly stronger pattern [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of oversupply is strengthening, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. The price will fluctuate in the short - term due to factors such as supply pressure, positive signals from cracking prices, and unconfirmed geopolitical concerns [4][8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price is in a weak and fluctuating state. The current over - supply situation and continuous inventory accumulation are difficult to change, and the price is under pressure [4][9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price is in a weak and fluctuating state. The price is affected by factors such as geopolitical situation, demand, and cracking spread, and attention should be paid to the development of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [4][9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil is supported by the strengthening of refined oil. It is expected to fluctuate with crude oil, although it faces some negative factors such as the decline of shipping demand and the substitution of green energy [4][11]. - **Methanol**: High inventory suppresses the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. Methanol is in a low - level fluctuating state, and it is expected to have a short - term narrow - range fluctuation [4][25]. - **Urea**: The downstream follows up at low prices, and the futures price rises slightly. In the short term, it is expected to rise slightly and generally fluctuate and consolidate [4][25]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The circulation of goods in the market increases, and the basis remains weak. The price is expected to maintain a low - level range fluctuation, and the EG01 - 05 spread is still recommended to be shorted at high levels [4][20]. - **PX**: The market sentiment has cooled slightly, and the cost support is not strong. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, waiting for further feedback from the market [4][12]. - **PTA**: The emotional fermentation has ended, and the fundamental variables are limited. The price is expected to fluctuate with the cost, and the TA01 - 05 reverse spread position can be temporarily left for observation [4][13]. - **Short - Fiber**: The price difference between high and low prices in the market is gradually widening, and the factory's sales are difficult. There is still room for profit compression, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the upstream [4][21]. - **Bottle Chip**: The trading atmosphere has declined, and it follows the cost passively. The absolute value will fluctuate with the raw materials, and the processing fee has stronger support below [4][23]. - **Propylene**: The spot price has strengthened in the short term, and the PL fluctuates. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4][28]. - **PP**: The fundamental pressure has been priced in, and attention should be paid to the changes in maintenance. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [4][27]. - **Plastic**: The short - term maintenance support is limited, and the plastic fluctuates. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4][26]. - **Styrene**: Affected by the narrative of blending for oil, styrene fluctuates after a rebound. The price is affected by factors such as the blending for oil and the inventory of pure benzene, and the market is in a state of game between expectation and reality [4][17]. - **PVC**: The cancellation of anti - dumping duties boosts the market sentiment again. Although the fundamentals are under pressure, the short - term market sentiment is improved [4][30]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, caustic soda fluctuates. The supply - demand expectation is poor, but the falling price of liquid chlorine pushes up the cost, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [4][32]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy Chemical Daily Index Monitoring** - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, which reflect the market's expectations for different time periods of each variety [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of each variety are provided, which can help analyze the relationship between the spot and futures prices and the supply situation in the market [35]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The spread data between different varieties are given, which can reflect the relative price relationship between different varieties and provide reference for arbitrage trading [36]. - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring** - Although specific data analysis is not carried out in the text, it is expected to provide more in - depth monitoring and analysis of the basis and spread of various chemical products [37][49][61]. 3.3 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, special index, PPI commodity index, and sector index of the commodity are provided. The energy index shows a decline of 0.61% on November 18, 2025, a decline of 2.25% in the past 5 days, an increase of 3.31% in the past month, and a decline of 6.87% since the beginning of the year [275][276][277].

（原标题：国内期货夜盘收盘，纯碱跌超2%） 人民财讯11月18日电，国内期货夜盘收盘，纯碱跌超2%，燃油、焦煤、焦炭、低硫燃油跌超1%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical industry continues to trade sideways, with olefins showing weakness and aromatics presenting a slightly stronger pattern. [4] - The current oversupply situation in the crude oil market persists, but geopolitical factors and the strength of crack spreads provide some support. Oil prices are expected to trade sideways in the short term. [8] - The price of asphalt futures is expected to trade weakly due to factors such as the potential increase in production by OPEC+ in December, the end of the Israel - Palestine conflict, and the possible resumption of Russia - Ukraine talks. [9] - The prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil futures are expected to trade weakly, influenced by factors like the potential increase in production by OPEC+ and changes in supply and demand. [9][11] - Methanol prices are expected to trade sideways with a downward bias due to high inventory levels and a supply - demand imbalance. [26] - Ethylene glycol prices are expected to trade within a low - level range due to the impact of new production capacity and increasing inventory. [18][21] - The prices of other chemical products such as PX, PTA, and short - fiber are also expected to trade sideways, with their trends affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and market sentiment. [12][13][22] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - The price of crude oil continues to trade sideways due to the interaction between the signs of the resumption of operations at a key Russian port and extensive geopolitical risks. The price of methanol and ethylene glycol has seen an unexpected increase in inventory. [2][3] 3.2 Variety Analysis Crude Oil - **Market News**: There are uncertainties regarding risks related to Russia and Venezuela. The resumption of oil shipments from Kazakhstan at the Novorossiysk port has been reported, and Trump may talk to Maduro. [8] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical factors, the relief of refined oil inventory pressure, and the strength of crack spreads provide short - term support for crude oil demand. However, the current oversupply situation and the continuous increase in inventory are difficult to change, leading to sideways price movement. [8] - **Outlook**: In the short term, the supply pressure persists, the crack spread points to an optimistic outlook for refinery operations, and geopolitical concerns remain, resulting in short - term sideways trading. [8] Asphalt - **Market News**: On November 17, 2025, the main asphalt futures closed at 3037 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in East China, Northeast China, and Shandong were 3290 yuan/ton, 3450 yuan/ton, and 3020 yuan/ton respectively. [8] - **Main Logic**: With the potential increase in production by OPEC+ in December, the end of the Israel - Palestine conflict, and the possible resumption of Russia - Ukraine talks, as well as the cooling of the US - Venezuela situation, the asphalt futures price is trading below the 3200 - yuan pressure level. The supply - demand imbalance and high inventory pressure remain. [9] - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the monthly spread of asphalt is expected to decline as the number of warehouse receipts increases. [9] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market News**: On November 17, 2025, the main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 2622 yuan/ton. [9] - **Main Logic**: With the potential increase in production by OPEC+ in December and the end of the Israel - Palestine conflict, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific region may decline due to the reduction in Russian exports. However, the demand for fuel oil remains weak. [9] - **Outlook**: Geopolitical factors may cause short - term price fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the development of the Russia - Ukraine situation. [9] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market News**: On November 17, 2025, the main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3240 yuan/ton. [11] - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the movement of crude oil prices. It is facing negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur fuel substitution, but its current valuation is low. [11] - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to follow the movement of crude oil prices, with limited substitution demand space. [11] Methanol - **Market News**: On November 17, the spot price of methanol in Taicang was 2005 yuan/ton, and the port inventory continued to increase. [26] - **Main Logic**: The domestic methanol supply is abundant, and the import of goods has an impact on the market. The high inventory level suppresses the price, and the market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. [26] - **Outlook**: In the short term, it is expected to trade within a narrow low - level range, waiting for overseas market information. [26] Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: On November 17, the domestic ethylene glycol market was adjusted sideways, and the inventory continued to increase. [18] - **Main Logic**: New production capacity has an impact on the market, and although some coal - based plants are under maintenance, the new plants are gradually coming into operation, resulting in high inventory pressure. [18][21] - **Outlook**: In the long term, the inventory pressure is large, and the price is expected to trade within a low - level range. [21] Other Chemical Products - **PX**: The supply of xylene is sufficient, and the impact of blending for gasoline on PX is limited in the short term. The load of PX remains stable. [12] - **PTA**: The emotional impact has ended, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of plant changes. [13] - **Short - Fiber**: The fundamentals are weak, and the price of polyester staple fiber is expected to continue to adjust weakly. [22] - **Bottle Chip**: The trading atmosphere has declined, and it is passively following the cost. [24] - **Propylene**: The downstream trading volume has increased, and the price of PL is expected to trade sideways. [28] - **PP**: The short - term driving force is limited, and attention should be paid to the changes in maintenance. [28] - **Plastic**: The upcoming cold snap next week may boost the raw material support, and the price of plastic is expected to trade sideways. [27] - **Styrene**: The narrative of blending for gasoline has an impact, and short - sellers have reduced their positions. [17] - **PVC**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, the price is expected to trade sideways. [31] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot pressure remains high, and the futures price is expected to be cautious and weak. [32] 3.3 Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Inter - Period Spread - The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, PX, PTA, and MEG are presented, showing different changes. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of PX is - 24 with a change of 2. [34] 3.3.2 Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The basis and warehouse receipts of different varieties are provided. For instance, the basis of asphalt is - 12 with a change of 15, and the number of warehouse receipts is 30110. [35] 3.3.3 Inter - Variety Spread - The inter - variety spreads such as 1 - month PP - 3MA and 1 - month TA - EG are given, along with their changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is 380 with a change of 71. [37] 3.4 Index Performance - The comprehensive index, characteristic index, and sector index of the commodity are presented. For example, the comprehensive index is 2254.19 with a change of - 0.24%, and the energy index on November 17, 2025, has a daily increase of 0.11%. [278][279]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The global oil market is facing an increasingly imbalanced supply - demand situation, with supply growing and demand growth being mediocre compared to historical standards. The market is expected to remain in a state of oversupply in 2026, and the price of crude oil will be volatile in the short - term [2][8]. - The cancellation of India's domestic certification for 14 chemical imports will bring direct incremental exports for some chemicals, but the exact increase needs further exploration. A refinery accident in South China will lead to a reduction in the supply of aromatics, olefins, and refined oil [3]. - Most energy and chemical products are expected to maintain a volatile and consolidating trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical situations, and policy changes [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Main Logic of Crude Oil - **Market News**: Trump lifted restrictions on oil exploration in the Alaska National Petroleum Reserve. EIA data showed that the US continued to accumulate crude oil inventories last week, and the IEA月报 predicted an increase in the oversupply of global oil in 2026 [8]. - **Main Logic**: The oversupply situation is expected to intensify in 2026. Although the refined oil inventory pressure has eased and the crack spread is strong, providing phased support for the demand side, the supply pressure remains difficult to refute. If Russian oil supply does not decrease, the oil price may return to the oversupply pattern [8]. 3.2 Situation of Other Energy and Chemical Products - **Asphalt**: Shandong's spot prices have stabilized, and the futures price is volatile. The supply tension has been relieved, and the over - valuation premium is starting to decline [10]. - **High - sulfur Fuel Oil**: News of the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict drove the futures price down. The supply in the Asia - Pacific region may decrease, but the demand is still weak [11]. - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The weakening of refined oil led to a decline in low - sulfur fuel oil. It is facing supply increase and demand decline, and its valuation is low, following the trend of crude oil [13]. - **Methanol**: High inventory suppresses the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. It is in a volatile and consolidating state [30]. - **Urea**: Downstream purchases on dips, and the futures price is volatile. It is under high - inventory pressure and coal - cost support [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Although there are more device disturbances and marginal improvement in supply - demand, the oversupply pattern cannot be reversed, and the price will remain in a low - level range [22][24]. - **PX**: India's cancellation of BIS and the speculation of the US - Asia aromatics arbitrage window drove PX to strengthen against cost. It is expected to be volatile and warm in the short - term [16]. - **PTA**: India's cancellation of BIS certification is beneficial to overseas export expectations. The price will follow the cost and be volatile and warm in the short - term [17][18]. - **Short - fiber**: The cancellation of India's BIS certification has limited impact on short - fiber, and the profit is expected to be compressed under passive following [26][27]. - **Bottle - chip**: The price fluctuation has slightly increased, and the trading atmosphere has recovered. It follows the trend of upstream raw materials [28]. - **Propylene**: Downstream trading volume has increased, and PL is volatile [36]. - **PP**: After continuous decline, it has slightly stabilized. Attention should be paid to the change in maintenance [35]. - **Plastic**: The chemical sector has slightly stabilized, and plastic follows the trend [34]. - **PVC**: The cancellation of India's BIS certification may boost sentiment, but the actual export impact is limited. PVC is weakly stable [37]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak expectations, it is in a volatile state [38]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various energy and chemical products have different degrees of change, which reflects the market's expectations for future prices [40]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of different products also show different trends, which can help analyze the relationship between the spot and futures markets [41]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of different energy and chemical products have changed, which is affected by factors such as supply - demand and cost [42].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic commodity futures market shows a mixed performance in the night session, with most main contracts experiencing gains, particularly in silver and styrene, while low-sulfur fuel oil sees a decline [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by nearly 2% [1] - Styrene and gold also saw gains of over 1% [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil experienced a decline of nearly 1% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global macro situation this week focuses on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although there is short - term tightness, it won't have a significant impact on major asset prices. There are two factors for improvement: marginal easing of monetary policy and normal release of funds in the TGA account when the US government resumes work [7]. - In October, China's export growth was weaker than expected, but there were more positive signs in inflation data, and consumer data may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major assets may enter a short - term shock period. However, the overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended to allocate major assets evenly in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and increase positions appropriately if there is a correction [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The short - term tightness of US dollar liquidity won't have a large impact on major asset prices. Monetary policy is marginally easing, and the release of TGA account funds after the US government resumes work can relieve the short - term pressure [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: October's export growth was weaker than expected, but there were positive signs in inflation data, and consumer data may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - **Asset Views**: In November, major assets may enter a shock period. The overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and it is recommended to evenly allocate major assets, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and increase positions if there is a correction [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active. There is a risk of overcrowding in small - cap funds, and the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall trading volume has slightly declined, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by policy, fundamental repair, and tariff factors [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade situations, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward momentum. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the rate of freight decline in September [8]. 3.2.4 Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel**: In the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the issuance of special bonds, steel exports, and iron - water production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term fundamentals are stable, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventory, and policy [8]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - **Coke**: The game between coking and steel enterprises continues, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: The market sentiment is weak, but the spot price is rising. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand driving force is limited, and it follows the valuation fluctuations of coal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: After the first - round steel procurement inquiry is announced, the price follows the decline of coking coal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Prices have been lowered in various regions, and downstream purchasing sentiment is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply exceeds demand, and cost - driven upward movement is limited. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by soda ash inventory [8]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The fundamentals are still in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by ore复产 and electrolytic aluminum复产 [8]. - **Aluminum**: The stock - futures linkage leads to an upward - volatile price. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward, affected by macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [8]. - **Zinc**: The export window is open, and the price is fluctuating at a high level. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro risks and zinc ore supply [8]. - **Lead**: Social inventory is slightly increasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by supply disruptions and battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment is improving, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro and geopolitical changes, and Indonesian policies [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts are decreasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by Indonesian policies and demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: The inventory of Shanghai tin continues to decrease, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply in the southwest is rapidly decreasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installations [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resumption of production expectation is fluctuating, and the price may fluctuate significantly. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: There is a lack of short - term driving forces, and the price is expected to be volatile, affected by OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [10]. - **LPG**: Refinery output has decreased, and import costs are under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price in Shandong has stabilized, and the futures price is expected to be volatile, affected by sanctions and supply disruptions [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price is volatile, and attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by geopolitics and crude oil prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The refined oil market is strong, and the price may be on a volatile upward trend, affected by crude oil prices [10]. - **Methanol**: High inventory suppresses the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the macro - energy situation and overseas developments [10]. - **Urea**: Export information boosts the spot market, and the futures price is expected to be volatile in the short term, affected by export quotas and coal prices [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The spot market is loose, and there is little hope of reversing the downward trend in the short term. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by coal and oil prices, port inventory, and Sino - US trade friction [10]. - **PX**: The market sentiment is rational, and the processing fee is strongly supported by strong supply and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations and macro changes [10]. - **PTA**: The market sentiment is flat, and the basis is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations and macro changes [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Consumers tend to buy on dips, and attention should be paid to the off - peak and peak season conversion. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by downstream yarn mill purchasing and peak - season demand [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: The market performance is flat, and it follows the cost passively. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by bottle - chip enterprise production cuts and new device commissioning [10]. - **Propylene**: Inventory needs time to be digested, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and the domestic macro situation [10]. - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro situations [10]. - **Plastic**: Downstream transactions have increased, but maintenance support is limited. The price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro situations [10]. - **Styrene**: There are still concerns about over - inventory, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices, macro policies, and device operations [10]. - **PVC**: The weak reality suppresses the price, and it is expected to be volatile, affected by expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak expectations, the price is expected to be volatile, affected by market sentiment, production, and demand [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Rapeseed oil is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of upper - level technical resistance. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward, affected by US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: US soybeans are testing the upper - level resistance, and it is recommended to hold reverse spreads on Dalian soybean meal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: The market is in a short - term tight situation, and the price is expected to be volatile at a high level, affected by demand, macro factors, and weather [10]. - **Pigs**: Supply and demand are loose, and the price is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Natural Rubber**: With the approaching expiration of the November contract, there may be a pulse - like upward movement. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations [10]. - **Cotton**: The price has slightly declined, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: The price is fluctuating within a narrow range, and the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by imports and Brazilian production [10]. - **Pulp**: The market is dominated by funds, and the long - position advantage remains. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated quotes [10]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: In the tendering peak season, the price is expected to stabilize in November and be volatile, affected by production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill operations [10]. - **Logs**: In the de - inventory cycle, the price is expected to be volatile, affected by special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry will continue to consolidate in a volatile manner. The OPEC monthly report confirmed an oversupply of 500,000 barrels per day in the global crude oil market in Q3 2025, which is different from the previous shortage forecast. The strengthening of refined oil products is reflected in both crack spreads and calendar spreads, while the calendar spreads of crude oil are gradually weakening. The rise in crude oil prices has not driven the chemical sector, and various chemical products are showing different trends [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of oversupply is intensifying, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. The API data shows that the US crude oil inventory continued to build up last week, and the EIA short - term energy outlook report raised the forecast of US crude oil production. The OPEC monthly report adjusted its estimate of the global oil market from a deficit to a surplus. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price in Shandong has stabilized, and the futures price of asphalt is oscillating. The supply tension has been relieved, and the over - valuation premium is starting to decline. The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated, and the calendar spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price of fuel oil is oscillating. Pay attention to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Although the Israel - Palestine conflict has ended, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, and the demand for fuel oil is still weak [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Due to the strength of refined oil products, low - sulfur fuel oil may run strongly. It is affected by the decline in Russian refined oil exports, but also faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand and green energy substitution [13]. - **PX**: Market sentiment tends to be rational. Under the situation of strong supply and demand, the processing fee is strongly supported. It is expected that the short - term price will oscillate slightly upwards [14]. - **PTA**: Market sentiment is flat, and the basis is under pressure. The short - term increase slows down, and it turns to range - bound consolidation [14]. - **Pure Benzene**: The port resumes inventory accumulation, and pure benzene runs weakly. The current upward driving force is insufficient, but the valuation is at a low level [16]. - **Styrene**: There are still concerns about inventory overflow, and styrene oscillates weakly. The pressure in November is mainly on the cost side of pure benzene [18]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The spot circulation is loose, and there are still production profits. The hope of reversing the downward trend in the short - term market is slim. The price will maintain a low - level range - bound operation [19]. - **Short - Fiber**: The market follows the "buy - on - dips" principle, and pay attention to the conversion between peak and off - peak seasons. The short - fiber price follows the upstream to oscillate, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed [22]. - **Bottle Chip**: The market performance is flat, and it passively follows the cost. The processing fee is expected to be sorted out within the range in the short - term [24]. - **Methanol**: The high - inventory reality suppresses, and overseas disturbances are not significant. Methanol oscillates and consolidates. Wait for overseas disturbance information in the short - term [26]. - **Urea**: There is still an incremental production capacity, and the futures price is under pressure in the short - term. It is in a state of high - inventory suppression and coal - cost support, and pay attention to the implementation of export quotas and coal - price trends [26]. - **Plastic**: The maintenance rate declines, and plastic oscillates weakly. The fundamental support is limited, and the production pressure is large due to the increase in production capacity [28]. - **PP**: The maintenance support is still limited, and PP oscillates weakly. The inventory in the middle reaches is at a high level in the same period in recent years, and pay attention to the change and sustainability of maintenance [29]. - **PL**: The inventory needs time to be digested, and PL oscillates weakly. The downstream replenishment enthusiasm weakens, and the trading range changes little [30]. - **PVC**: Weak reality suppresses, and PVC oscillates weakly. The macro - level disturbance fades, and the fundamentals are under pressure [31]. - **Caustic Soda**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and caustic soda oscillates. The supply - demand expectation is poor, but the falling price of liquid chlorine pushes up the cost [32]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.27 with a change of - 0.02, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is - 28 with a change of - 8 [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Various varieties show different basis values, changes, and warehouse receipt quantities. For example, the basis of asphalt is - 43 with a change of 7, and the number of warehouse receipts is 7690 [35]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Different inter - variety spreads also have different values and changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is 136 with a change of - 47 [37]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report only lists the names of various varieties such as methanol, urea, etc., but does not provide specific monitoring data. 3.3 Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on November 12, 2025, shows that the commodity index is 2258.82 (+0.40%), the commodity 20 index is 2563.42 (+0.48%), the industrial products index is 2223.46 (+0.58%), and the PPI commodity index is 1344.72 (+0.44%) [280]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on November 12, 2025, has a current value of 1169.87, with a daily increase of 1.34%, a 5 - day increase of 0.97%, a 1 - month increase of 4.26%, and a year - to - date decrease of 4.73% [281].