Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective decline, influenced by falling COMEX gold futures prices and a cooling of interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, leading to a pullback in gold-related ETFs and stocks [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On November 4, A-share indices collectively fell, with COMEX gold futures dropping to a low of $3,975 [1] - By the close of the Asian market, gold futures were trading around $3,989 per ounce [1] - Gold ETFs such as Huaxia (518850) fell by 0.62%, the non-ferrous metals ETF (516650) dropped by 3.3%, and the gold stock ETF (159562) decreased by 3.49% [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Multiple Federal Reserve officials discussed interest rate cuts, but the clarity on a potential December cut remains uncertain due to the U.S. government shutdown affecting data releases [1] - Inflation data continues to be a focal point for several officials, with the likelihood of a December rate cut now reduced to 67.3% according to CME's FedWatch tool [1] Group 3: Gold Demand Outlook - UBS analysts suggest that gold investment demand could further increase, with central bank gold purchases remaining high [1] - Global gold demand is projected to reach approximately 4,850 metric tons this year, the highest since 2011 [1] - If private investors follow the central bank trend and diversify their holdings from U.S. Treasuries to gold, spot prices may rise further [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration regarding tax policies on gold trading aims to enhance the existing gold market policies, distinguishing between the commodity and financial attributes of gold [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Tax Policy Changes - From now until December 31, 2027, transactions of standard gold through the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange will be exempt from value-added tax (VAT) for selling members or clients [1] - For physical delivery of gold, the tax treatment will differentiate between investment and non-investment uses, applying relevant policies accordingly [1] Impact on Market Participants - The new policy is expected to have three main effects: 1. Non-investment gold jewelry enterprises will face increased costs due to a reduction in input tax deductions from 13% to 6% [1] 2. Investment gold sales will benefit member units selling gold coins [1] 3. The price of gold jewelry for end consumers is likely to rise, depending on how much of the cost increase is passed on by jewelry companies [1] Investor Behavior - Investors purchasing investment gold bars from non-exchange channels will still be subject to the current 13% VAT, making exchange channels more attractive due to tax benefits [2] - The new policy may accelerate the concentration of investors towards exchange channels, especially for large investments, with ordinary investors likely preferring bank-represented exchange products like gold ETFs for convenience and tax efficiency [2] Consumer Impact - The tax burden for consumers purchasing gold jewelry remains unchanged, as the tax policies for non-exchange gold sales have not changed [2] - The price of gold jewelry will still be influenced by gold market price fluctuations, despite the tax structure remaining stable [2][3] Recommendations for Investors - From an investment perspective, products like paper gold and gold ETFs are recommended due to their structural tax advantages [3] - Consumers are advised to focus on brand-compliant merchants for gold purchases and to be cautious of market price fluctuations when buying gold jewelry [3]

瑞银（UBS）分析师表示，当前黄金市场的回调仅为暂时现象，金价仍有望达到每盎司4200美元；若地 缘政治或市场风险加剧，乐观情况下金价甚至可能冲高至每盎司4700美元。 "市场期待已久的回调已暂时平息，"瑞银在周一发布的研究报告中称，"除技术面因素外，我们未发现 此次抛售存在基本面支撑。" 这家瑞士银行业巨头指出，"价格动能减弱引发期货持仓量出现第二轮下滑"，但同时强调，黄金的潜在 需求依然强劲。 瑞银分析师还援引世界黄金协会（World Gold Council）《第三季度黄金需求趋势报告》称，该报告证 实"各国央行与个人投资者的购金需求均表现强劲且持续升温"。 他们在报告中写道："今年以来各国央行已购金634吨，虽低于去年同期速度，但第四季度购金量正逐步 回升，符合我们对2025年全年900-950吨购金量的预测。" 黄金ETF资金流入达222吨，金条与金币需求连续第四个季度超过300吨，这些数据均表明投资者对黄金 的兴趣已显著增强。瑞银指出，"珠宝需求也未如预期般疲软"。 "我们倾向于逢低买入黄金，"分析师表示，并补充称他们仍认为投资者对黄金的"配置比例偏低"。瑞银 建议，投资者应在投资组合中配置中等个 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new tax policy on gold purchases aims to regulate the market by encouraging transactions through formal channels, rather than restricting gold buying altogether [3][8][23] Summary by Sections Tax Policy Impact - The announcement of the tax policy on November 1, 2025, led to immediate reactions from banks and merchants, with major banks like ICBC and CCB suspending gold accumulation services [1][9] - The policy specifies that purchasing "standard gold" through the Shanghai Gold Exchange or Shanghai Futures Exchange is exempt from a 13% value-added tax, while purchases through other channels incur the full tax [3][5] Market Reactions - Merchants and banks reacted swiftly to the new policy, with many choosing to suspend sales and remove gold products from shelves due to uncertainties regarding existing inventory and tax implications [9][11] - The price of standard gold bars purchased through banks remained stable initially, but the rush to buy led to rapid sellouts, highlighting market volatility [11][13] Consumer Guidance - The policy primarily affects investment-grade gold bars and ingots, while the prices of gold jewelry, which already include taxes, are not significantly impacted [15][17] - Consumers are advised to wait for market stabilization and clearer policy details before making investment decisions in gold, as current fluctuations may lead to overpaying [17][19] Future Market Outlook - The new tax policy is expected to lead to a restructuring of the gold market, favoring compliant businesses and potentially phasing out non-compliant sellers by the end of 2027 [21][23] - The overall goal of the policy is to create a more regulated and transparent gold market, which will ultimately benefit consumers and investors in the long run [21][25]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced fluctuations last week, closing around $3988 per ounce, indicating a high-level correction trend with increased short-term volatility [1] Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The primary factors driving gold price fluctuations include mixed U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve policy signals, with September core CPI growth lower than expected, while October Markit composite PMI exceeded expectations [1][2] - The U.S. government shutdown for over three weeks delayed key data releases, and a downgrade of the U.S. credit rating to "AA-" by European rating agency Scope contributed to heightened market volatility and risk aversion [1] - Despite short-term volatility, the underlying logic supporting gold remains unchanged, with a stable bullish trend in the market [1] Group 2: Long-term Support for Gold Prices - Three core long-term drivers for gold's upward trend include: 1. Normalization of gold purchases by global central banks, driven by de-dollarization demands in emerging markets, providing solid bottom support for gold prices [2] 2. The current state of U.S. debt and real interest rates, where high debt levels and declining real interest rates enhance gold's appeal as an alternative reserve asset [2] 3. Global monetary policy and geopolitical uncertainties, with the Fed's rate cuts prompting other central banks to follow suit, while geopolitical risks continue to inject risk premiums into the market [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The market's focus for the upcoming week will be on key economic indicators such as the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI and delayed employment data, which will directly influence Federal Reserve policy expectations [2] - Additionally, developments in global geopolitical situations, particularly local conflicts and policy changes in major economies, will be closely monitored [2] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Short-term gold price support is observed in the $3950-$3970 per ounce range, with stability in this area determining the short-term trend; resistance is noted in the $4050-$4070 per ounce range [3]

Core Viewpoint - The new tax regulations on gold transactions, effective from November, focus on investment gold trading and are expected to influence the retail gold market and trading behaviors [1][2]. Group 1: Tax Regulations Impact - The new regulations include 13 tax rules specifically targeting investment gold transactions, which may affect off-exchange trading and short-term arbitrage [1]. - The tax changes do not directly impact consumers purchasing gold jewelry, as these items remain classified as consumer goods [1][2]. - However, there may be indirect effects on gold jewelry prices due to potential increases in production costs if investment gold demand shifts towards exchange-traded products [1][2]. Group 2: Individual Tax Responsibilities - Individuals holding gold do not need to worry about taxes when liquidating their assets, as the new rules apply only to businesses [1][2]. - Some gold buyers may attempt to pass on tax burdens by lowering purchase prices; individuals are advised to wait before selling in such cases [1][2]. Group 3: Investment Options - For those looking to invest, "paper gold" and gold ETFs remain unaffected by the new regulations, making them a more convenient option [2]. - When considering physical gold investments, it is recommended to purchase standard gold bars from reputable exchanges to ensure better liquidity and compliance with tax regulations [2]. - Non-standard gold bars from smaller shops may face lower buyback prices due to the new tax burdens on sellers, potentially reducing their liquidity [2]. Group 4: Market Development - The core aim of the new tax regulations is to guide funds towards regulated trading channels, promoting high-quality development in the gold market [2]. - Consumers are encouraged to monitor raw material price trends when purchasing gold jewelry and to prioritize products from exchange member units for optimal asset allocation and consumption needs [2].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price experienced significant volatility in 2025, reaching historical peaks before a sharp decline, leading to uncertainty among investors regarding future trends and strategies [1][3]. Price Fluctuations - In 2025, international gold prices surged past $4100, $4200, and $4300 per ounce, but on October 21, a historic drop occurred with a single-day decline of 5.74%, causing prices to fall below $4000 [1][3]. - Domestic gold prices also reflected this volatility, with the price of gold jewelry dropping from 1294 yuan per gram to below 1200 yuan [1]. Influencing Factors - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy played a crucial role, with multiple interest rate cuts in 2025, but hawkish comments from Chairman Powell increased market volatility [3]. - Geopolitical developments, particularly statements from Ukrainian President Zelensky about ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict, reduced safe-haven demand, leading to capital withdrawal from precious metals [3]. - A strengthening dollar further pressured gold prices, as it increased the cost of purchasing gold for investors holding other currencies [3]. Investor Sentiment - The dramatic fluctuations in gold prices have caused significant distress among investors, with reports of substantial losses within short time frames [4]. - The volatility has even impacted personal decisions, such as marriage plans, due to the uncertainty surrounding gold purchases [4]. Institutional Perspectives - Despite the recent price corrections, many financial institutions remain optimistic about gold's long-term prospects, with UBS predicting a rebound to $4200 per ounce by year-end [5]. - Conversely, Citibank analysts express caution, suggesting a potential drop to $3800 within the next three months, while Bloomberg's commodity strategists foresee a possible 20% to 30% correction [5]. Investment Strategies - Experts recommend a cautious and strategic approach to gold investment, emphasizing the importance of asset allocation and long-term planning [6]. - Suggestions include maintaining a gold allocation of 5% to 10% of total assets, with varying strategies based on risk tolerance, such as physical gold for low-risk investors and gold ETFs for medium-risk investors [6][7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the recent decline in spot gold prices and changes in tax policies are impacting gold demand, while long-term bullish sentiment remains due to central bank purchases and asset allocation needs [2][3] - As of November 4, 2025, the gold ETF fund (159937) has seen a 0.75% decrease, with a 5.19% increase over the past month, indicating volatility in the market [1] - The recent announcement from the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation regarding the cancellation of VAT deductions for retail gold has led to a short-term cooling of gold demand [2] Group 2 - The U.S. job market shows signs of cooling, with nearly 950,000 layoffs announced in 2023, the highest level since 2020, which may influence economic conditions and gold prices [2] - Despite short-term disturbances in market sentiment, the long-term logic for rising gold prices remains intact, supported by central bank purchases and the need for asset allocation [3] - The gold ETF fund has seen a net inflow of 3.07 billion over the last ten trading days, indicating continued interest in gold investments [3]

为持续向投资者普及ETF基础知识，招商证券携手十大基金公司，联合全景网共同举办2025年招商证 券"招财杯"ETF实盘大赛系列直播，旨在帮助投资者提升资产配置与风险管理能力，促进ETF市场的健 康发展。 彭悦：今年以来确实金价一路水涨船高，伦敦金涨幅约为55.8%，是比较惊人的。而且它的上涨速度特 别快，尤其是八月下旬到十月中旬这段时间，金价在两个多月的时间里创下了30%左右的涨幅。 可能有很多小伙伴在懊悔，这么快的上涨速度没有来得及配置，那么等到它回调的时候，是不是较好的 布局时点。那么我们的观点是：金价整体的上涨趋势维持不变。 这里做进一步的分析。本轮金价启动，三月份主要是源于特朗普政策的不确定性，包括对于高关税可能 拉升全球通胀的预期。到四月份之后，关税的冲突有所缓和，金价出现了三个月左右的盘整。 2025年10月28日，"招财杯"ETF实盘大赛系列直播邀请到了国泰基金量化投资部基金经理彭悦、国泰基 金首席市场策略师朱海飞一起探讨《一克千金，黄金还能涨吗？》。 彭悦表示：我们对于金价走势的观点是：短期波动回调，长期上升趋势不变。 金价上涨的长逻辑，主要还是来自美元信用的走弱。2022年俄乌冲突以来，金价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in gold prices has led to significant investor anxiety, with many experiencing losses after buying at high prices, while others are considering buying at lower levels as prices drop [1][2]. Group 1: Price Fluctuations - Gold prices have recently experienced dramatic fluctuations, with Shanghai gold hitting a low of 906 CNY per gram and London gold dropping to around 3962 USD per ounce, significantly down from earlier highs [1]. - The rapid price changes have left many investors in distress, particularly those who bought gold at higher prices, leading to widespread complaints about being "stuck" with their investments [1][3]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The core logic behind the changing gold prices is a battle between supply and demand, as well as shifts in risk sentiment among investors [2]. - Factors such as potential global economic recovery or easing geopolitical tensions could lead to a further decline in gold prices, especially if the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates [2][4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to differentiate between essential purchases (like wedding jewelry) and investment opportunities, with the latter requiring careful consideration of market conditions [5]. - It is suggested that investors allocate a modest portion of their assets (no more than 10%) to gold, avoiding high-risk strategies like leverage or full investment [5][6]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The ongoing accumulation of gold by central banks, particularly in China, provides a long-term support for gold prices, despite potential short-term corrections [4]. - Predictions indicate a possible 42% increase in gold prices by 2025, although short-term volatility remains a concern [4].