报告日期：2025 年 4 月 25 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：央行 MLF 操作，黄金强势依旧 中美没有就关税问题磋商或谈判，更谈不上达成协议。据新华网，有记者问：近 来美方不断有消息称，中美之间正在谈判，甚至将会达成协议。你能否证实双方 有没有开始谈判？外交部发言人郭嘉昆说，这些都是假消息。"据我了解，中美 双方并没有就关税问题进行磋商或谈判，更谈不上达成协议。"特朗普考虑对华 关税分级方案。央视网援引《华尔街日报》报道，美方高级官员透露，特朗普政 府正考虑多种方案。中国央行 25 日将开展 6000 亿元 MLF 操作，将实现净投放 5000 亿。本月有 1000 亿元 MLF 到期，在 4 月 25 日进行 6000 亿元 MLF 操作后， 将实现净投放 5000 亿元。3 月央行超量续作 MLF，实现净投放 630 亿元，是 2024 年 7 月以来 MLF 首次净投放，展现了适度宽松的货币政策取向。 重点品种：原油、贵金属、集运指数 原油：SC 上涨 1%。有消息援引哈萨克新任命的能源部长的话说，在决定石油产 量水平时，哈萨克斯坦将优先考虑国家利益，而非欧佩克及其减产同盟国的利益。 他还表 ...

在今天商务部举行的例行发布会上，商务部新闻发言人何亚东表示，中方注意到了外媒近期的一些报 道。 何亚东： 作为对外经贸关系的主管部门，我想强调的是，目前中美之间未进行任何经贸谈判，任何 关于中美经贸谈判进展的说法都是捕风捉影，没有事实依据。 2025.04. 24 中美之间正在谈判？外交部：假消息 4月24日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。 有记者提问，近来，美方不断有消息称中美之间正在谈判，甚至将会达成协议。请问您能否证实双方 有没有开始谈判？ "这些都是假消息。"郭嘉昆表示，中美双方并没有就关税问题进行磋商或谈判，更谈不上达成协议。 他强调，这场关税战是由美方发起的，中方的态度是一贯的、明确的——打，奉陪到底，谈，大门敞 开。对话谈判必须是平等、尊重、互惠的。 商务部：目前中美之间未进行任何经贸谈判 微信编辑 | 苏小 推荐阅读 白宫慌了！将设工作组紧急处理对中国加征关税危机 n 777 124 1> T - www.bands.com and and and a do a character and a lot a come provention of more . . F 20 8 S 3 a 1 ...

MSC+Premier Alliance，MSC 4月份船期报价1260/2110，5月上半月船期报价1260/2110；ONE 4月份下半月船期 报价1837/1841，5月上半月船期报价1837/1841；HMM 4月下半月期报价1192/1954，5月上半月船期报价1192/1954。 Ocean Alliance，COSCO 4月下半月以及5月上半月船期报价2175/3625；CMA 4月下半月船期报价1335/2245，5月 份上半月船期报价1335/2245，5月下半月船期报价2335/4245；EMC 5月份上半月船期报价1255/2060；OOCL 4月下 半月以及5月第一周船期报价1250/1900。OA联盟代表COSCO线下报价出炉，4/25-5/14日价格降至1350/1850，AE7/9 航线价格1275/1750，后期双子星联盟以及MSC/PA联盟5月上半月价格将会跟随，目前5月上半月价格中枢将继续 下降至1800-1900美元/FEU左右，马士基5月下半月价格尚未公布，预计公布价格1600-1700美元/FEU之间。 地缘端：根据伊朗外交部22日发表的声明，伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃表 ...

Summary of Tongrun Equipment Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tongrun Equipment - **Industry**: Renewable Energy, specifically focusing on photovoltaic (PV) and energy storage solutions Key Financial Performance - **2024 Revenue**: 18 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 80.07% - **2024 Net Profit**: 2.17 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 237.28%, primarily driven by growth in photovoltaic energy storage business [1][2] - **Q1 2025 Revenue**: 8.08 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 18.01% - **Q1 2025 Net Profit**: 18.31 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 19.7% [1][2] Business Segments Renewable Energy - Focus on North America and South Korea markets, with leading positions in commercial PV inverters [1][4] - Expansion into emerging markets such as Europe, Latin America, and Pakistan, with full-scenario PV solutions launched in Europe [1][4] - In 2024, inverter shipments increased by approximately 20%, with significant growth in the US (20%-28%), Europe (over 20%), and South Korea (over 40%) [1][6] Metal Products - Revenue from metal products reached 1.334 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 10.14% [2] - Focus on expanding production capacity and developing new product lines such as workbenches and tool cabinets [1][4] Market Dynamics - **Supply Chain Management**: The company has optimized its supply chain and strengthened partnerships to mitigate the impact of US-China tariff disputes [3][7] - **Profit Margins**: North America maintains a gross margin of 40%-50%, while Europe exceeds 30%. The Chinese market is more competitive, with margins between 15%-25% [3][26] Product Development - Successful development of high-power string inverter products (330 kW and 350 kW) for European and North American markets [5] - New generation home and commercial energy storage solutions launched, aimed at global commercial energy storage systems [5] Future Outlook - **2025 Goals**: Anticipated growth in inverter-based energy storage, with significant projects in Japan and Australia [15][16] - **Market Expansion**: Expected overseas shipment growth of 20%-30% compared to the previous year, with a focus on high-margin markets [26] - **Challenges**: Anticipated decline in large-scale energy storage demand in the US due to high tariffs and supply chain issues [24] Additional Insights - **European Market**: Strong growth in commercial energy storage, with a focus on centralized grid-side storage projects [30][33] - **Order Backlog**: Approximately 160 million USD in orders in North America, with expectations for double-digit growth in revenue [34] - **Gross Margin Trends**: Margins are expected to stabilize in the US market due to sufficient inventory and potential price adjustments to counter tariff impacts [36] Conclusion Tongrun Equipment is positioned for significant growth in the renewable energy sector, particularly in photovoltaic and energy storage solutions, with a strong focus on international markets and product innovation. The company is actively managing challenges related to tariffs and competition while aiming to enhance its market share and profitability.

2. 特朗普称美联储应该降低利率，且他无意解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，还表示希望鲍威尔在利率问题上采取更加积极的行动 3. 贝森特周二在华盛顿特区由摩根大通主办的私人投资者峰会上表示，与中国的贸易战是不可持续的，"没有人认为目前的现状 是可持续的"，贸易战局势可能会在 "不久的将来" 缓和。他还坚称，特朗普政策的目标 "不是脱钩"，但与中国谈判可能是 "一 场艰苦的战斗"，双方都 "不认为现状是可持续的"。 4. 2025 年 4 月 23 日，美国白宫新闻秘书莱维特表示，特朗普希望美元继续保持世界储备货币地位。 以上回应了近期大家关注的中美关税，美元信用，联储独立性，安抚意味浓厚。 美元，美股即刻反弹，盘后期货继续涨；目前中美高关税实质禁运的前提下，已经没有更差了，置之死地而后生，过程肯定是曲 折的，后面只会越来越来好，有没有被错杀的机会？ 1. 川普发表关税缓和言论，抛出橄榄枝： ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-04-22 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，阿根廷大豆收割进程加快和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期千点关口 上方震荡等待中美关税战后续和南美大豆产区收割天气进一步指引。国内豆粕冲高回落， 豆粕需求五一前改善，油厂豆粕库存处于低位现货偏强支撑期货盘面，进口巴西大豆到 港增多和中美关税战预期交互影响，整体维持震荡偏强格局。偏多 2.基差：现货3450（华东），基差405，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存12.55万吨，上周29.05万吨，环比减少56.8%，去年同期44.25万吨， 同比减少71.64%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏多 5.主力持仓：主力多单减少，资金流出，偏多 6.预期：中美关税战升级和豆粕技术面 ...

日本经济新闻调查了美国农业部公布的外国企业的大豆和玉米预约采购情况。特朗普就任总统前的 1月16日以后，中国的采购一直为零。在其他农产品方面，中国也在减少美国产品…… 日本经济新闻4月21日获悉，中国已经自1月中旬起停止预约采购美国产大豆和玉米。在减 少从美国进口农产品和资源的同时，为了保证稳定供应，增加了从巴西等国家的采购。意在 对抗对中国征收高关税的美国特朗普政府，对作为其支持基础的美国农户等造成打击。 此次日本经济新闻调查了美国农业部公布的外国企业的大豆和玉米预约采购情况。特朗普 就任总统前的1月16日以后，中国的采购一直为零。虽然也有"出口目的地不明"的合同，但 2024年8月以后，每个月都有中国企业的多笔采购。 特朗普在2024年总统选举中，做出了对进口自中国的所有商品征收60%关税的竞选承诺。 实际上，截至4月，第二届特朗普政府对中国加征的关税达到了145%。 作为报复性措施，中国3月对美国产大豆、小麦、玉米、鸡肉等启动了最高达15%的额外 关税。停止采购被认为与关税措施一样，是对特朗普政府的一种震慑手段。 取代美国的中国采购来源国是巴西。巴西大豆种植户协会主席毛利西奥·布冯在接受日本 经济新闻的 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the A-share market in China and its dynamics in relation to macroeconomic factors, particularly the U.S.-China trade tensions and the performance of the technology sector, especially semiconductors. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Volume and Trends** - The current trend of shrinking market volume does not necessarily indicate a second bottom. The market volume dropped to 949.1 billion, the lowest since the 924 market. The A-share market has been recovering since the beginning of the year, with a current range around 3,300 to 3,350 points, which is considered normal behavior during the market's recovery phase [2][3]. 2. **Impact of U.S.-China Trade Tensions** - The U.S.-China tariff conflict may impact the A-share market, but the outlook should not be overly pessimistic. The potential economic resilience of both countries should be considered, and the market's response to tariffs is expected to be limited given the total market capitalization of approximately 80 trillion [4][3]. 3. **Dollar Index Concerns** - There is a need to be cautious about the unexpected strengthening of the dollar index, which could affect global economic conditions and capital flows, particularly in emerging markets like China. This factor should be integrated into investment strategies [5][6]. 4. **Investment Strategy and High Dividend Assets** - The current investment strategy favors balanced allocation, with a focus on high-dividend assets. The influx of ETF investments and declining trading volume have led to an increase in dividend-paying stocks. The importance of chip research in high-dividend recognition surpasses fundamental analysis [6][7]. 5. **Outlook for the Technology Sector** - There is strong optimism for the technology sector, particularly the semiconductor industry, which is viewed as the next major trend akin to the automotive industry. The focus for this year is on optical modules, with a recommendation to wait for the second wave of opportunities [9][12]. 6. **Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators** - The overall market is experiencing rapid volume contraction, with high policy expectations but poor profit-making effects. The upcoming political bureau meeting is highly anticipated, and the current market sentiment reflects a cautious approach due to the mixed signals from U.S. economic indicators [11][13]. 7. **Federal Reserve and Economic Policy** - The conflict between the Federal Reserve and the Trump administration has significant market implications. The Fed is expected to adopt a wait-and-see approach regarding interest rate cuts, while the administration's tariff policies may lead to inflationary pressures and economic slowdowns [13][14]. 8. **Consumer Behavior and Retail Trends** - Recent U.S. retail data showed unexpected growth, but consumer confidence is declining, indicating that consumers are preemptively purchasing goods in response to tariff threats. This behavior may lead to a weakening trend in future retail data [16]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The discussion highlighted the importance of understanding the dynamics of the A-share market in the context of global economic conditions, particularly the interplay between U.S. policies and Chinese market responses. The emphasis on high-dividend stocks and the technology sector reflects a strategic pivot in investment focus amid uncertain macroeconomic conditions [2][4][9].

/ 朝如日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】129 2025年4月18日 | 期货收盘价 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 4月17日 | 4月16日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 01合约 | 1718 | 1731 | -13 | -0.75% | | | 05合约 | 1768 | 1789 | -21 | -1.17% | 元/吨 | | 09合约 | 1755 | 1767 | -12 | -0.68% | | | 甲醇主力合约 | 2238 | 6362 | -131 | -5.53% | | | 期货合约价差 | | | | | | | 价差 | 4月17日 | 4月16日 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 01合约-05合约 | -50 | -58 | 8 | 13.79% | | | 05合约-09合约 | 13 | 22 | -d | -40.91% | 元/吨 | | 09合约-01合约 | 37 | 36 | 1 | 2.78% | | | UR-MA主力合约 | -520 | -6 ...

厂家 用货号 投资咨询业务资格: 班题奸可【2011】1292号 2025年4月16日 欢迎关注微信公众号 | 板块 | 品种 | 主力合约 | 点评 | 操作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | IF2506 | | 关注后续国内对冲政策情况带来修复机会,而下方 | | | 股指 | IH2506 | 市场等待信号指引,指数窄幅震荡为主 | 支撑稳定,再次破位概率极低。建议卖出前低位沪 | | | | IC2506 | | 深300在3550点附近,中证1000在5500点附近 | | | | IM2506 | | 行权价5月看跌期权收取权利金 | | | | 12506 TF2506 | 短期长债利率下行接近前低下行速度放缓,走势进入震荡等待 | 单边策略上短期建议可以逢调整适当做多。基差策 | | | 国债 | TS2506 | 方向指引阶段(10债波动区间处于1.63%-1.67%) | 略上,建议参与各品种正套策略。曲线策略上建议 | | 金融 | | TL2506 | | 适当关注做陡 | | | | | | 关注美国贸易谈判和经济GDP等数据发布等 ...