2025 年 7 月 4 日星期五 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-50591197 | | | | 铜： | | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 17 | | 镍： | | 17 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 17 | | 棕榈油： | | 18 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 19 | | 棉花： | | 19 | | 白糖： | | 20 | | 苹果： | | 21 | | 生猪： | | 21 | | 鸡蛋： | | 22 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 23 | | 原木： | | 24 | | 免责声明 | | 25 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘多数上涨，30 年期主力合约跌 0.02%报 121.130 元， 10 年期主力合约持平于 109.105 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.01%报 106.255 元，2 年期主 力合约涨 0.01%报 102.514 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，7 月 3 日以固 ...

Group 1 - The recent overseas economy can be understood as a combination of "fiscal expansion dividends" and "de-globalization costs," leading to a relatively mild global economic "slowdown zone" in the short term, with limited risks of rapid changes in growth trends [1][6][30] - The optimal strategy for the Chinese economy is to focus on internal growth dynamics to enhance risk resistance, with broad-based growth characteristics improving macroeconomic stability and asset price stability [2][8][37] - The effectiveness of domestic policies initiated in the last quarter of the previous year peaked in the first half of this year, with signs of economic slowdown emerging by the end of the second quarter [3][9][10] Group 2 - Infrastructure construction rates are a key variable to observe, with recent performance in materials like asphalt and cement indicating weaker financing compared to narrow infrastructure growth, suggesting a need for local government investment to accelerate [4][11][12] - The necessity to optimize supply has significantly increased due to slowing exports, with "anti-involution" policies expected to improve supply-demand ratios in key industries [5][13][14] - The framework suggests that during periods of actual growth in the "slowdown zone," it is advisable to reduce configurations based on win rates and increase those based on odds, focusing on high dividend, low volatility sectors [6][15][16] Group 3 - The supply-demand ratio is crucial for determining whether the fundamentals can improve, with recent years showing a trend of imbalance leading to lower price centers and higher real interest rates [7][16][17] - Improving the supply-demand ratio requires achieving rebalancing across three sectors: local government investment normalization, rationalization of incremental investments through anti-involution, and stabilizing household balance sheets [8][18][56] - The global competition hinges on who can provide growth certainty, with the U.S. focusing on permanent tariffs and tax cuts, while China leverages its strong supply chain and large market space [9][19][20] Group 4 - The mid-term impact on major asset classes includes the regionalization of global supply chains and the weakening of U.S. dollar credit, affecting commodities, gold, and alternative assets [21][22] - The framework may overlook risks such as uncertainties in external trade relations and geopolitical issues, which could complicate the impact on major asset classes [22][22]

关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤锂电 资讯~ 自2021年新能源乘用车进入巴西市场以来，比亚迪产品已赢得超过13万巴西家庭的青睐。今年第一季 度，比亚迪在巴西销量突破2万台，成为当地新能源汽车销量冠军。5月，比亚迪在巴西汽车品牌零售销量 排行中跃升第四，市占率达9.7%。 近年来，比亚迪积极拓展海外产业布局。截至目前，比亚迪新能源足迹已遍布六大洲、全球110多个国家 和地区。 上半年比亚迪海外销售超47万辆，同比增长132%，预计2025年全年海外销售将超过80万辆。 2025（第三届）中国固态电池 技 术 发 展 与 市 场 展 望 高 峰 论 坛 -广告- 本文来源：企业公告 当地时间7月1日， 比亚迪在巴西巴伊亚州卡马萨里举行巴西乘用车工厂首车下线仪式， 从破土动工到首 车下线仅仅用了15个月，将比亚迪全球化战略带入新的阶段。 比亚迪巴西乘用车工厂选址于萨尔瓦多大都市圈内的卡马萨里市。该市不仅是巴伊亚州重要的工业、经济 中心，更拥有完善的汽车产业链配套和成熟的港口物流基础设施。2023年7月，比亚迪宣布在此建设由三 座工厂组成的大型生产基地综合体，总投资额达 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Luxshare Precision is planning to issue shares overseas (H-shares) and prepare for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its global strategy and financing capabilities [1][4] - Luxshare Precision, founded in 2004, has evolved from a traditional OEM focused on computer connectors to a leading player in the electronic precision manufacturing sector, now serving major clients like Apple [4][6] - As of July 3, Luxshare Precision's stock price was 35.77 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 259.4 billion yuan [4] Group 2 - In 2024, Luxshare Precision reported a revenue of 268.795 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.91%, with 83.37% of this revenue coming from the consumer electronics sector [6] - The founder of Luxshare Precision, Wang Laichun, was ranked first in Fortune's list of the most influential businesswomen in China for 2025, marking her third consecutive year in this position [6]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotel Co., Ltd. has submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to become the first hotel group in China to achieve a dual listing in both A-shares and H-shares [1] Group 1: Company Overview - As of December 31, 2024, Jin Jiang Hotel operates 13,416 hotels with a total of 1.29 million rooms, covering a full range of hotel categories from economy to high-end [1] - The IPO proceeds will primarily focus on expanding and optimizing overseas operations, including new hotel openings, renovations, service quality improvements, and IT infrastructure upgrades [1] Group 2: Overseas Expansion - Jin Jiang Hotel began its overseas expansion in 2015 with the acquisition of the Louvre Hotels Group in France, followed by the inclusion of the Plateno Group and Radisson Hotel Group, expanding its footprint to Europe, Asia, Africa, and America [2] - By the end of 2024, Jin Jiang Hotel has established 1,171 hotels abroad, with 773 located in France, 128 in other European countries, and 270 in Asia (excluding China), Africa, and America [2] - The RevPAR for overseas limited-service hotels is projected to reach 112.27% of 2019 levels in 2024, reflecting a 0.35% increase from 2023 [2] Group 3: Domestic Market Strategy - Jin Jiang Hotel anticipates revenue of 14.3 billion to 15 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 2% to 7%, with a 5% to 10% increase expected in mainland China [2] - The company plans to open 1,300 new hotels and sign contracts for 2,000 hotels in 2025, implementing a differentiated expansion strategy based on the "12+3+1" framework [2] Group 4: Infrastructure and Market Growth - Jin Jiang Hotel is actively improving infrastructure to boost hotel business growth in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa through new hotel openings and renovations [3] - The company is targeting high-growth markets in the Asia-Pacific region, including India, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, with plans for rapid expansion through both organic growth and strategic acquisitions [3] - The partnership with Malaysian hotel management group RIYAZ marks a significant step in Jin Jiang's Southeast Asia strategy, with plans to introduce multiple brands into the region [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the balance between globalization and localization in supply chain management, emphasizing the importance of local innovation while leveraging global resources [3][4]. Group 1: Globalization and Localization - The relationship between globalization and localization requires a better balance, focusing on local consumer needs while utilizing global advantages [3]. - The company has achieved over 90% localization in packaging materials and raw materials in China, with 100% localization in biscuit production technology [3][4]. Group 2: Product Development Trends - The snack industry shows distinct market characteristics, with Chinese consumers preferring less sweet products due to health concerns, leading to the development of thinner, less sweet Oreo products [5]. - Local product development can inspire interest in other markets, showcasing a trend towards healthier snacks globally [5]. Group 3: Supply Chain Maturity and Challenges - The AMEA region faces varying supply chain maturity levels, with a need for patience in improving factory standards [6]. - The collaborative environment in China, supported by government and suppliers, is unique and not easily replicated elsewhere, highlighting the need for patience in global expansion [6][7]. Group 4: Talent Development and Leadership - The company employs two methodologies for talent development: "hunting" for specialized skills and "farming" for building foundational capabilities [9][10]. - Female leadership is emphasized, with a focus on establishing a unique leadership style and overcoming feelings of inadequacy [11]. Group 5: Lighthouse Factories and AI Integration - The Suzhou factory is recognized as a global lighthouse factory, showcasing advancements in employee engagement and technology integration [12][13]. - Future AI applications are expected to enhance decision-making processes and optimize supply chain efficiency [14][15]. Group 6: Future Supply Chain Challenges - Key challenges include building a flexible supply chain, ensuring sustainability, and engaging the new generation of workers [16]. - Recommendations for supply chain professionals include focusing on loss reduction, maintaining a broad perspective while addressing specific issues, and fostering collaboration [17][18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant evolution of China's power battery industry over the past 15 years, marking its transition from inception to a global leader, and anticipates new challenges and opportunities in the next 15 years, particularly in globalization and technological innovation [2][4]. Summary by Sections 15-Year Journey of the Industry - The power battery industry in China has grown from a nascent stage in 2010 to a robust sector, becoming a representative of China's manufacturing prowess and a symbol of economic transformation [2]. - The industry is expected to face new challenges and opportunities as it enters a new phase starting in 2025, with a focus on electric transportation, energy system transformation, and the emergence of new applications and business models [2][4]. High工锂电's Role - High工锂电 has been a witness and chronicler of the power battery industry's growth over the past 15 years, providing insights through research reports, publications, and industry events [4]. - In 2025, High工锂电 will celebrate its 15th anniversary with a series of activities themed "激荡15年 瞭望新征程," reflecting on past achievements and looking forward to future challenges and opportunities [4][5]. Planned Activities - The activities will include research visits, video interviews, in-depth reports, and an industry celebration from March to December 2025 [5]. - Key topics for discussion will include the successes and failures of the past 15 years, new technologies, application scenarios, and business models for the future [10][11]. Industry Development Overview - The article outlines the evolution of the Chinese lithium battery industry through three phases: the nascent period (2010-2015), the explosive growth period (2016-2020), and the globalization leadership period (2021-2025), highlighting key technological and commercial breakthroughs [12]. - It emphasizes the changes in the core industry chain of batteries, equipment, and materials, along with a retrospective on key enterprises and the top 10 companies in various segments [12][13]. Future Outlook - The focus for the next 15 years will be on technological advancements such as solid-state batteries and sodium-ion batteries, as well as full-scene applications including energy storage and eVTOL [13]. - The globalization strategy will involve establishing overseas factories and technology exports, marking a significant shift in the industry's operational landscape [13]. Anniversary Celebration - The 15th anniversary celebration will take place during the 2025 High工锂电 annual meeting, inviting over 1,000 industry representatives to reflect on the past and discuss future opportunities and challenges [15]. - The event will feature discussions on new batteries, technologies, application opportunities, and innovations in business models, along with a special focus on emerging enterprises [16].

Market Development - The Chinese esports market is projected to reach approximately 179 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.5%, indicating a robust development trend [1][3][4] - The user base for esports in China is expected to stabilize around 511 million people in 2024, with a modest year-on-year growth of 0.6% [1][6] Industry Dynamics - The current core dynamics of the Chinese esports industry include accelerated internationalization, establishment of standardized systems, diversification of ecosystems, and widespread public participation, all contributing to the market's growth and prosperity [1] - The internationalization of the esports industry has progressed significantly, with China becoming a major venue for international esports events and increasing recognition of Chinese esports IP abroad [16] User Characteristics - Esports users are gradually expanding from a younger demographic to a broader age range, with 68.5% of users aged 30 or below and 31.5% aged above 30 [26] - A significant majority of esports users (79.4%) believe that esports are important to their lives, and 90.5% hold a positive outlook on the future development of the industry [33] Development Trends - Future trends in the Chinese esports industry include globalization, a focus on long-term value, diversification of business models, and adaptation for older demographics, which are expected to drive new breakthroughs in the industry [1][38][41] - The esports industry is moving towards sustainable development and long-termism, balancing commercial gains with social value and cultural recognition [41] Diversification - The diversification of the esports industry is enhancing its growth potential through content innovation, ecosystem expansion, and cross-industry collaborations, transitioning from a gaming industry to a broader entertainment sector [22] - The emergence of a "silver-haired esports" market is noted, with an increasing number of older users engaging in esports, highlighting the need for an age-friendly esports ecosystem [48]

Core Viewpoint - The "fruit chain" giants, including Luxshare Precision, Lens Technology, and GoerTek, are planning to list in Hong Kong to enhance their global strategy and reduce reliance on major clients like Apple [2][4][9]. Group 1: Company Listings - Luxshare Precision announced its plan to list in Hong Kong, following Lens Technology and GoerTek, which are already ahead in the listing process [2][4]. - As of July 3, the combined market capitalization of the three companies is approximately 462.8 billion yuan [2]. - Lens Technology is set to become the first among the three to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on July 9 [7]. Group 2: Strategic Goals - The primary goals for the three companies include deepening global strategic layouts and enhancing overseas financing capabilities [2][4]. - Each company aims to diversify their operations and reduce dependence on major clients, particularly Apple [11][13]. - Luxshare Precision has been closely tied to Apple, supplying various components and recently entering the iPhone supply chain [5][13]. Group 3: Market Context - The recent trend of companies listing in Hong Kong is supported by favorable policies from the China Securities Regulatory Commission, which encourages leading domestic enterprises to utilize both A-share and H-share markets [9][10]. - The Hong Kong market has shown signs of recovery, with narrowing valuation gaps between H-shares and A-shares [10].

中新网北京7月4日电(张东方薛凌桥林勐男)7月2日至4日，第十三届世界和平论坛在北京举行。3日，欧 洲理事会前主席、比利时前首相赫尔曼·范龙佩(Herman Van Rompuy)在出席该论坛时表示，关税战会打 击国与国之间的信任，其结果是人人皆输。他呼吁各方对话，回归现实主义。 本届论坛以"共促世界和平与繁荣：共担、共享、共赢"为主题，探讨如何通过加强国际合作、共同承担 维护和平、促进发展的责任，共享全球化带来的机遇，最终实现世界各国的共同繁荣和持久和平。 范龙佩说，关税战会打击国与国之间的互相信任。"尤其是，关税战并非基于理性的经济考量。因为， 这既不符合本国利益，也无益于全球经济。" 在他看来，关税战注定以失败告终，但在此过程中将造成极大破坏，各国不应给已经动荡不安的局势再 添不稳定因素，民众理应免受不公平贸易行为的伤害。 范龙佩认为，维护或重建信任离不开双边和多边对话。即使存在深刻分歧，对话仍至关重要。"在政治 条件允许的情况下，只要对话从未中断，重建紧密联系就会更加容易。" 他还提及中欧贸易关系，并对即将举行的新一次欧中领导人会晤表达了期待。 7月3日，欧洲理事会前主席、比利时前首相赫尔曼·范龙佩( ...