白银供应端总体平稳，矿山生产略有减少，但回收量因银价上涨而增加， 预计未来高价位将进一步刺激回收。 工业需求受光伏产业影响显著，尽管光伏用银量因技术进步而下降，但 AI、新能源汽车和数据中心等领域的需求增长带来增量，如每辆新能源 汽车较传统燃油车多消耗约 30 克白银。 当前白银市场现货紧张，主要由于 ETF 大量持有现货锁定流动性，而非 期货逼仓。全球主要 ETF 持有 2.57 万吨白银，伦敦库存仅 2.63 万吨， 导致市场流动性紧张。 白银价格受多种因素影响，不仅是供需关系，还包括金融市场投资活动。 长期来看，白银价格走势跟随黄金，涨幅受商品属性影响，即短缺或过 剩情况决定涨幅大小。 未来几年，光伏和新能源车等领域对白银的需求预计将收窄供需缺口， 但贵金属行情主要由金融属性驱动，全球变局是重要影响因素，预计明 年涨幅约为 30%。 传统上，美债收益率与黄金定价显著负相关，但自 2020 年以来，这一 关系逐渐被打破，需要重新评估美债收益率对黄金定价的影响，并关注 其他可能替代无风险收益率指标的发展趋势。 中美博弈加剧，美元信用削弱，各国央行购入黄金以分散风险，促使更 多资金流入避险资产，如黄金和白银， ...

Group 1 - Retail investment remains a key driver for the expansion of overall trading volume in the precious metals market, with CME Group reporting an average daily trading volume of 33.1 million contracts in November, marking a 10% increase year-over-year and the second highest in history [1][3] - The preference for smaller contracts has significantly driven the surge in trading volume, with the overall average daily trading volume in the metals sector increasing by 52% last month, and micro gold futures reaching an average daily volume of 476,000 contracts, a substantial increase of 235% compared to last year [1][3] Group 2 - Silver futures have seen notable growth, with an average daily trading volume of 108,000 contracts, up 22% year-over-year, and micro silver futures experiencing a remarkable 238% increase in volume [2][4] - The strong trading activity in silver is closely linked to its price surge, with November silver futures rising by 18.6%, achieving the best monthly performance since 2020, and breaking the $55 per ounce mark for the first time [2][4] - As of December, silver prices have continued to rise, reaching $59.275 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 100% [2][4] - Despite potential volatility near record highs, strong demand and tightening supply structures provide robust support for silver's long-term trend, with some institutional investors viewing silver as having a valuation advantage over gold [2][4] - The long-term gold-silver ratio is approximately 68, while the current ratio stands at 74, indicating potential for further silver price appreciation if the ratio returns to its historical average [2][4]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年12月02日16时13分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属高位分化，沪金主力收涨0.01%，沪银主力收涨2.46%，铂金主力收跌2.57%，钯金主力收涨跌2.23%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期仍存。②避险属性方面，中美经贸磋商成 果共识公布。俄乌、中东等地缘异动风险仍存。③货币属性方面，美联储理事沃勒和纽约联储威廉姆斯讲话共同提高美联储降息可 能性。美联储褐皮书显示，美国经济活动变化不大，但政府停摆令多地需求受抑。美国供应管理协会(ISM)表示，11月美国制造业 PMI从10月的48.7降至48.2连续第九个月萎缩。美国9月零售销售不及预期，消费者信心降至七个月低点。美国9月就业增长超预 期，但失业率升至4.4%。美国政府结束停摆，市场等待更多经济数据指引。目前市场预期美联储12月降息25基点概率暴涨至80% 以上。美元指数和美债收益率下行遇阻；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币升值利空内价格。需求端氢能产业被列 为战略新兴产业，对铂基催化剂的需求形成长期强劲预期。钯金长 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December due to a weak labor market and indications from policymakers [2] - The Bank of Japan's hint at a potential interest rate hike has caused significant market fluctuations, with the Nikkei index dropping nearly 1000 points and Bitcoin prices plummeting [2] - Silver prices have reached a historical high, with spot silver rising over 5% and year-to-date gains exceeding 100%, while gold has also hit a six-week high [2] Group 2 - The A-share market has experienced a downturn, with a report suggesting that earnings may fall below market consensus, although some foreign investors remain optimistic about a rebound in 2026 [3] - Leading lithium iron phosphate companies have raised price demands, with one company increasing processing fees by 3000 yuan per ton starting January 1, 2026, amid supply-demand imbalances [3] - The intense competition in the food delivery sector has led to significant losses for platforms, with Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com collectively spending over 614 billion yuan on sales and marketing, prompting calls for a return to rational consumption [3] Group 3 - Michael Burry, known as the "Big Short," has expressed skepticism about Tesla's valuation, questioning its business strategy and shareholder dilution due to Elon Musk's compensation plan [4] - The animated film "Zootopia 2" has achieved a cumulative box office of 1.92 billion yuan, setting records for imported animated films in China and significantly outperforming North America [5] - The AI model DeepSeek has released new versions, acknowledging a widening gap between open-source and closed-source models, with plans for future improvements [5] Group 4 - ST Suwu has been forced to delist due to financial fraud, with its stock price plummeting over 90% this year, affecting nearly 68,000 shareholders [5]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年12月01日16时21分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属高位分化，沪金主力收涨1.33%，沪银主力收涨5.86%，铂金主力收涨3.96%，钯金主力收涨2.44%。①核心逻辑，短 期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期仍存。②避险属性方面，中美经贸磋商成果 共识公布。俄乌、中东等地缘异动风险仍存。③货币属性方面，美联储理事沃勒和纽约联储威廉姆斯讲话共同提高美联储降息可能 性。美联储褐皮书显示，美国经济活动变化不大，但政府停摆令多地需求受抑。美国9月零售销售不及预期，消费者信心降至七个 月低点。美国9月就业增长超预期，但失业率升至4.4%。美国政府结束停摆，市场等待更多经济数据指引。目前市场预期美联储12 月降息25基点概率暴涨至80%附近。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币升值利 空内价格。需求端氢能产业被列为战略新兴产业，对铂基催化剂的需求形成长期强劲预期。钯金长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。 ⑤预计贵金属短期金弱银强，铂强钯弱，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 策略： ...

CME宕机引发全球市场冲击 Wmax监测显示，芝加哥商品交易所集团（CME）近期突发数据中心故障，导致标普500期货、EBS外汇平台、国债、原油及贵金属等关键品种交易暂停， 涉及数万亿美元合约，影响深度与时长超2019年同类故障。芝商所日均衍生品交易量超2600万份，迷你标普500与纳斯达克100期货日均名义交易额约1万亿 美元，庞大体量使冲击快速蔓延。 此次停摆恰逢感恩节后清淡期、月末及基金年终结算叠加节点，导致流动性对冲工具缺失，国债交易受限、外汇价差扩大，期货交割压力陡增。对贵金属市 场而言，Comex黄金期货与期权冻结导致伦敦现货对冲失效，金价先飙后震荡，买卖价差从1美元飙升至20美元以上，叠加美国政府停摆致经济数据缺失， 进一步放大短期波动。 黄金短期策略 政策端聚焦12月美联储议息会议，市场预期降息25个基点；技术面伦敦金现最新4252.51美元/盎司（日涨0.71%），支撑位4220-4230美元（资金承接区，与 10年期美债收益率3.85%负相关），阻力位4280-4300美元。操作建议：4230-4240美元轻仓介入，突破4300美元且站稳2日加仓；初始仓位15%-20%，加仓后 不超30% ...

在 2025 年贵金属市场的火热行情中，白银不再是黄金的 "陪衬"，凭借凌厉的涨势成功逆袭，不仅接连刷新国际、国内多项价格纪录，更以超 95% 的年内累 计涨幅大幅跑赢黄金，稳稳占据贵金属 "领涨王" 宝座。Wind 数据显示，国际市场上，COMEX 白银、伦敦现货白银已分别创下 57.245 美元 / 盎司、56.533 美元 / 盎司的历史新高；国内市场同步走强，沪银期货主力连续合约突破 13000 元 / 千克大关，最高触及 13239 元 / 千克，创下上市以来的峰值表现。 图源网络 复盘全年行情，白银的牛市脉络清晰且爆发力十足。10 月 9 日晚间，现货白银迎来历史性突破，盘中首次站上 50 美元 / 盎司关口；涨势延续至 10 月 17 日，冲高至 54.468 美元 / 盎司后进入高位震荡阶段，期间曾一度回调至 45.513 美元 / 盎司。11 月起，白银重拾上涨动能，从 48 美元 / 盎司一线震荡攀升， 再度突破 50 美元关口并触及 54.394 美元，经过短暂整理后，于 11 月 28 日迎来关键突破，当日最大涨幅超 6%，成功站上 56 美元 / 盎司整数关口，触及 56.533 美 ...

记者丨 叶麦穗 编辑丨曾芳 12月1日，亚洲早盘，避险情绪再度升温，现货黄金在4220美元关口上方震荡； 现货白银历史首次触及57美元/盎司，日内涨幅一度超过 2.5%，今年以来涨幅已经达到98%，逼近100% ；COMEX白银盘中突破58美元/盎司，日内涨1.47%。 上海期货交易所的白银主力合约价格涨至13520元/公斤，涨幅超过7%，月线上已经连续上涨8个月。 截至发稿，国际银价、铜价早盘大涨后小幅回落，现货白银涨0.97%，报56.945美元/盎司，COMEX白银涨0.5%。 12月1日，LME铜期货价格大幅拉涨，截至发稿报11249美元/吨。沪铜站上89100元/吨，大涨超2%，盘中刷新历史新高。 白银已经连续8个月上涨 本周，美联储将进入12月会议前的"噤声期"。本周二，美联储主席鲍威尔将在一场纪念活动中发表讲话。正值"噤声期"，鲍威尔料不会发表有 关货币政策相关的重要表态。 市场焦点转向即将出炉的诸多经济数据。其中，"美联储最青睐的通胀指标"——美国9月个人消费支出（PCE）报告将于周五公布，预计9 月整体PCE同比涨幅将微升至2.8%，核心PCE价格指数同比涨幅预计将维持在2.9%不变。 与此 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 金银整体走强，白银涨幅更甚 国贸期货 贵金属与新能源研究中心 2025-12-01 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 周度观点摘要 | 黄金相关数据指标跟踪 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 单位 | 本期 | 上一期 | 周度变化 | 周度涨跌幅 | | 伦敦现货黄金 | 美元/盎司 | 4218.550 | 4064.279 | 154.271 | 3.80% | | 沪金主力 | 元/克 | 953.92 | 926.94 | 26.98 | 2.91% | | 基差（TD-期货，取15点整价格） | 元/克 | -5.88 | -5.01 | -0.87 | 17.37% | | 内外价差（TD-伦敦，取15点整价格） | 元/克 | -4.81 | -0.15 | -4.66 | 3106.67% | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Silver has entered the accelerated topping phase, and it is expected that there will still be significant intraday price increases next week. Pay attention to the pressure level of 14,500 yuan/kg above. If the price weakens during the day, timely profit - taking is required. Opening new long positions or short - selling at high levels at this stage carry relatively high risks [2][3]. - Shanghai Gold is still in a breakthrough pattern at the end of the triangular convergence. It is recommended to lay out long positions on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 12,366 - 14,500 yuan/kg, and that for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 927 - 982 yuan/g [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $4,256.40 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.44%. Shanghai Gold closed at 959.82 yuan/g, up 0.97%. The trading volume of COMEX gold decreased by 19.20% to 149,900 lots, and the trading volume of Shanghai Gold decreased by 32.04% to 235,300 lots. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.02%, and the US dollar index was 99.49 [2][5]. - **Silver**: COMEX silver closed at $57.09 per ounce, with a daily increase of 6.18%. Shanghai Silver closed at 13,191.00 yuan/kg, up 5.17%. The trading volume of COMEX silver decreased by 11.08% to 2,034,400 lots, and the trading volume of Shanghai Silver increased by 44.53% to 1,248,780 tons [2][5]. 3.2 Reasons for Silver's Accelerated Rise - Historically, silver price increases driven by the Fed's monetary policy often show a "two - stage" pattern. In the second stage of each rise, international silver prices tend to rise rapidly, with single - day positive line increases of over 5%. The current technical trend of silver clearly conforms to the characteristics of the second - stage rise in previous cycles. The first stage of the current silver rise was from August 22 to October 6, and the second stage is from November 7 to the present [2]. - As of Friday's close, the position of COMEX silver December contract was 9,866 lots, equivalent to 1,534 tons. The total inventory of COMEX silver is currently 14,207 tons, at a high level in the same period of the past five years under the influence of Trump's tariff policy expectations in the first half of the year. Even if some positions are locked by ETFs, the current overseas position and inventory levels still do not indicate "delivery difficulties" [2]. 3.3 Investment Strategies - **Silver**: Since the silver price has entered the accelerated rise stage, focus on the upper pressure level of 14,500 yuan/kg. If the price weakens during the day, timely profit - taking is required. Opening new long positions or short - selling at high levels at this stage carry relatively high risks. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 12,366 - 14,500 yuan/kg [3]. - **Gold**: Shanghai Gold is still in a breakthrough pattern at the end of the triangular convergence. It is recommended to lay out long positions on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 927 - 982 yuan/g [3]. 3.4 Data Tables and Charts - Multiple data tables and charts are provided, including the relationship between gold and silver prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and other data, as well as the relationship between gold and silver prices and factors such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, and the comparison of domestic and foreign prices [5][7][9][11][15][17][19][26][28][30][38][42][46][49][51][53].